Transition probabilities and duration analysis among disability states: Some evidence from Spanish data

In this paper we study the disability transition probabilities (as well as the mortalityprobabilities) due to concurrent factors to age such as income, gender and education. Althoughit is well known that ageing and socioeconomic status influence the probability ofcausing functional disorders, surprisingly little attention has been paid to the combined effectof those factors along the individuals' life and how this affects the transition from one degreeof disability to another. The assumption that tomorrow's disability state is only a functionof the today's state is very strong, since disability is a complex variable that depends onseveral other elements than time. This paper contributes into the field in two ways: (1) byattending the distinction between the initial disability level and the process that leads tohis course (2) by addressing whether and how education, age and income differentially affectthe disability transitions. Using a Markov chain discrete model and a survival analysis, weestimate the probability by year and individual characteristics that changes the state of disabilityand the duration that it takes its progression in each case. We find that people withan initial state of disability have a higher propensity to change and take less time to transitfrom different stages. Men do that more frequently than women. Education and incomehave negative effects on transition. Moreover, we consider the disability benefits associatedto those changes along different stages of disability and therefore we offer some clues onthe potential savings of preventive actions that may delay or avoid those transitions. Onpure cost considerations, preventive programs for improvement show higher benefits thanthose for preventing deterioration, and in general terms, those focussing individuals below65 should go first. Finally the trend of disability in Spain seems not to change among yearsand regional differences are not found.

The economic effects of a Spanish trade boycott against Catalan products

We study the potential consequences of a hypothetical trade boycott against Catalan products organized by some sectors of the Spanish society mainly for political reasons. A symmetric trade boycott would have two effects: a reduction of Catalan exports to Spain and a partial process of import substitution in Catalonia. In order to quantify the economic impact of the boycott, we compare the "actual" Catalan economy, as described in the input-output table for 2005, with a "simulated" Catalan economy that takes into account the effects of a boycott on the trade exchanges between Catalonia and Spain.

Dimensions of national culture and the accounting environment -The Spanish case-

Gray (1988) has put forward a hypothesis on how a national accountingenvironment might reflect the cultural dimensions identified by Hofstede (1980, 1983). A number of studies have tested Gray's hypothesis, including one by Pourjalali and Meek (1995) which identified a match between changes in cultural dimensions and the accounting environment in Iran following the revolution. In this paper we replicate this work in the context of Spain following the death of Franco in 1975 and the emergence of a democratic constitution in 1978. Specifically, we: 1) Consider Gray's hypothesis built on Hofstede's cultural dimensions and review some empirical tests of the hypotheses.2) Building on the work of Hofstede and Gray, we: put forward some hypotheses on how we would expect cultural dimensions to change in Spain with the transition to democracy.3) Review developments in accounting in Spain following the transition to democracy, in order to identify how well these fit with our hypotheses.

Do Spanish informal caregivers come to the rescue of dependent people with formal care unmet needs?

This paper analyses the effect of unmet formal care needs on informal caregiving hours in Spain using the two wavesof the Informal Support Survey (1994, 2004). Testing for double sample selection from formal care receipt and theemergence of unmet needs provides evidence that the omission of either variable would causes underestimation of thenumber of informal caregiving hours. After controlling for these two factors the number of hours of care increaseswith both the degree of dependency and unmet needs. More importantly, in the presence of unmet needs, the numberof informal caregiving hours increases when some formal care is received. This result refutes the substitution modeland supports complementarity or task specificity between both types of care. For a given combination of formal careand unmet needs, informal caregiving hours increased between 1994 and 2004. Finally, in the model for 2004, theselection term associated with the unmet needs equation is larger than that of the formal care equation, suggestingthat using the number of formal care recipients as a quality indicator may be confounding, if we do not complete thisinformation with other quality indicators.

Exercise and nonspecific low back pain: a literature review.

We reviewed the literature to clarify the effects of exercise in preventing and treating nonspecific low back pain. We evaluated several characteristics of exercise programs including specificity, individual tailoring, supervision, motivation enhancement, volume, and intensity. The results show that exercise is effective in the primary and secondary prevention of low back pain. When used for curative treatment, exercise diminishes disability and pain severity while improving fitness and occupational status in patients who have subacute, recurrent, or chronic low back pain. Patients with acute low back pain are usually advised to continue their everyday activities to the greatest extent possible rather than to start an exercise program. Supervision is crucial to the efficacy of exercise programs. Whether general or specific exercises are preferable is unclear, and neither is there clear evidence that one-on-one sessions are superior to group sessions. Further studies are needed to determine which patient subsets respond to specific characteristics of exercise programs and which exercise volumes and intensities are optimal.

The wage effect of an indexation clause: Evidence from Spanish manufacturing firms

An endogenous switching model of ex-ante wage changes under indexed and non-indexed settlements is estimated for the Spanish manufacturing sector using collective bargaining firm data for the 1984-1991 period. The likelihood of indexing the settlement is higher for nationwide unions than for other union groups within the works council and increases with the expected level of inflation. For wage change equations, a common structure for indexed and non-indexed settlements is strongly rejected, showing a source of nominal rigidity. For indexed contracts, the expected ex-ante total inflation coverage is nearly complete. It is also shown that workers pay a significant ex-ante wage change premium (differential) to obtain a cost of living allowance clause. However, the realised contingent compensation exceeds such a premium for all industries. Finally, important spillover effects in wage setting and the decision to index the settlement have been detected.

Wage determination in the Spanish industry

In this paper we estimate wage equations for the Spanish industryusing time series data on 85 industrial sectors, which allows us todistinguish between aggregate and sector specific effects in wagedetermination. Industry wages respond mainly to economy wide labourmarket conditions and to a much lesser extent to sector specificproductivity gains. The size of the insider effect has not remainedstable through the sample period. The estimated equations show a strongtransitory effect of unemployment on wages, which is in accordancewith the non--stationarity of the Spanish unemployment rate. Thishysteresis effect seems well accounted for by the sharp rise in theproportion of long term unemployment.

Spanish monetary policy: A structural VAR analysis

Some past studies analyzed Spanish monetary policy with the standard VAR. Their problem is that this method obliges researchers to impose a certain extreme form of the short run policy rule on their models. Hence, it does not allow researchers to study the possibility of structural changes in this rule, either. This paper overcomes these problems by using the structural VAR. I find that the rule has always been that of partial accommodation. Prior to 1984, it was quite close to money targeting. After 1984, it became closer to the interest rate targeting, with more emphasis on the exchange rate.

Evaluating Spanish pension expenditure under alternativa reform scenario

In this paper we evaluate the quantitative impact that a number ofalternative reform scenarios may have on the total expenditure for publicpensions in Spain. Our quantitative findings can be summarized in twosentences. For all the reforms considered, the financial impact of themechanical effect (change in benefits) is order of magnitudes larger thanthe behavioral impact or change in behavior. For the two Spanish reforms,we find once again that their effect on the outstanding liability of theSpanish Social Security System is essentially negligible: neither themechanical nor the behavioral effects amount to much for the 1997 reform,and amount to very little for the 2002 amendment.

Employment consequences of restrictive permanent contracts: Evidence from Spanish labor market reforms

Temporary employment contracts allowing unrestricted dismissals wereintroduced in Spain in 1984 and quickly came to account for most new jobs.As a result, temporary employment increased from around 10% in themid-eighties to more than 30% in the early nineties. In 1997, however,the Spanish government attempted to reduce the incidence of temporaryemployment by reducing payroll taxes and dismissal costs for permanentcontracts. In this paper, we use individual data from the Spanish LaborForce Survey to estimate the effects of reduced payroll taxes anddismissal costs on the distribution of employment and worker flows. Weexploit the fact that recent reforms apply only to certain demographicgroups to set up a natural experiment research design that can be usedto study the effects of contract regulations. Our results show that thereduction of payroll taxes and dismissal costs increased the employmentof young workers on permanent contracts, although the effects for youngwomen are not always significant. Results for older workers showinsignificant effects. The results suggest a moderately elastic responseof permanent employment to non-wage labor costs for young men. We alsofind positive effects on the transitions from unemployment and temporaryemployment into permanent employment for young and older workers, althoughthe effects for older workers are not always significant. On the otherhand, transitions from permanent employment to non-employment increasedonly for older men, suggesting that the reform had little effect ondismissals.