Projecting future expansion of invasive species: Comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling

Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (1) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (2) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (3) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved by using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species’ native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e. into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g. boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post-hoc test conducted on a new Partenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our “best” model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae; parthenium). However, discrepancies between model predictions and parthenium invasion in Australia indicate successful management for this globally significant weed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Semantic Classes in Topic Detection and Tracking

Topic detection and tracking (TDT) is an area of information retrieval research the focus of which revolves around news events. The problems TDT deals with relate to segmenting news text into cohesive stories, detecting something new, previously unreported, tracking the development of a previously reported event, and grouping together news that discuss the same event. The performance of the traditional information retrieval techniques based on full-text similarity has remained inadequate for online production systems. It has been difficult to make the distinction between same and similar events. In this work, we explore ways of representing and comparing news documents in order to detect new events and track their development. First, however, we put forward a conceptual analysis of the notions of topic and event. The purpose is to clarify the terminology and align it with the process of news-making and the tradition of story-telling. Second, we present a framework for document similarity that is based on semantic classes, i.e., groups of words with similar meaning. We adopt people, organizations, and locations as semantic classes in addition to general terms. As each semantic class can be assigned its own similarity measure, document similarity can make use of ontologies, e.g., geographical taxonomies. The documents are compared class-wise, and the outcome is a weighted combination of class-wise similarities. Third, we incorporate temporal information into document similarity. We formalize the natural language temporal expressions occurring in the text, and use them to anchor the rest of the terms onto the time-line. Upon comparing documents for event-based similarity, we look not only at matching terms, but also how near their anchors are on the time-line. Fourth, we experiment with an adaptive variant of the semantic class similarity system. The news reflect changes in the real world, and in order to keep up, the system has to change its behavior based on the contents of the news stream. We put forward two strategies for rebuilding the topic representations and report experiment results. We run experiments with three annotated TDT corpora. The use of semantic classes increased the effectiveness of topic tracking by 10-30\% depending on the experimental setup. The gain in spotting new events remained lower, around 3-4\%. The anchoring the text to a time-line based on the temporal expressions gave a further 10\% increase the effectiveness of topic tracking. The gains in detecting new events, again, remained smaller. The adaptive systems did not improve the tracking results.

Online learning an effective means for developing small business owner-managers’ capabilities?

Purpose If owner-managers engage in management development activities then chances of success may be improved for small businesses. But small business owner-managers (SBOMs) are a difficult group to engage in management development activities. While practitioners worry about timing, content and location of development activities, the purpose of this paper is to examine what drives SBOMs to participate in an online discussion forum (ODF) as a form of management development. An ODF was run with SBOMs and the factors affecting their participation are reported from this exploratory study. Design/methodology/approach A qualitative methodology was used where data gathered from three sources, the ODF posts, in-depth interviews with participants and a focus group with non-participants. These were analysed to evaluate factors affecting participation of SBOMs in an ODF. Findings The findings point to the importance of owner-managers’ attitudes. Attitudes that positively affected SBOMs participation in the ODF included; appreciating that learning leads to business success; positive self-efficacy developed through prior online experience; and an occupational identity as a business manager. Research limitations/implications Few SBOMs participated in the ODF, which is consistent with research finding that they are a difficult group to engage in management development learning activities. Three forms of data were analysed to strengthen results. Practical implications Caution should be exercised when considering investment in e-learning to develop the managerial capabilities of SBOMs. Originality/value Evidence of the factors important for participation in an informal voluntary ODF. The findings suggest greater emphasis should be placed on changing attitudes if SBOMs are to be encouraged to participate in management development activities.

Intranet Alman käytettävyydestä

Usability testing is a productive and reliable method for evaluating the usability of software. Planning and implementing the test and analyzing its results is typically considered time-consuming, whereas applying usability methods in general is considered difficult. Because of this, usability testing is often priorized lower than more concrete issues in software engineering projects. Intranet Alma is a web service, users of which consist of students and personnel of the University of Helsinki. Alma was published in 2004 at the opening ceremony of the university. It has 45 000 users, and it replaces several former university network services. In this thesis, the usability of intranet Alma is evaluated with usability testing. The testing method applied has been lightened to make its taking into use as easy as possible. In the test, six students each tried to solve nine test tasks with Alma. As a result concrete usability problems were described in the final test report. Goal-orientation was given less importance in the applied usability testing. In addition, the system was tested only with test users from the largest user group. Usability test found general usability problems that occurred no matter the task or the user. However, further evaluation needs to be done: in addition to the general usability problems, there are task-dependent problems, solving of which requires thorough gathering of users goals. In the basic structure and central functionality of Alma, for example in navigation, there are serious and often repeating usability problems. It would be of interest to verify the designed user interface solutions to these problems before taking them into use. In the long run, the goals of the users, that the software is planned to support, are worth gathering, and the software development should be based on these goals.

A reassessment of energy and GDP relationship: The case of Australia

This paper investigates the long- and short-run relationships between energy consumption and economic growth in Australia using the bound testing and the ARDL approach. The analytical framework utilized in this paper includes both production and demand side models and a unified model comprising both production and demand side variables. The energy-GDP relationships are investigated at aggregate as well as several disaggregated energy categories, such as coal, oil, gas and electricity. The possibilities of one or more structural break(s) in the data series are examined by applying the recent advances in techniques. We find that the results of the cointegration tests could be affected by the structural break(s) in the data. It is, therefore, crucial to incorporate the information on structural break(s) in the subsequent modelling and inferences. Moreover, neither the production side nor the demand side framework alone can provide sufficient information to draw an ultimate conclusion on the cointegration and causal direction between energy and output. When alternative frameworks and structural break(s) in time series are explored properly, strong evidence of a bidirectional relationship between energy and output can be observed. The finding is true at both the aggregate and the disaggregate levels of energy consumption.

On the contribution of information and communication technology to productivity growth in Australia

This paper revisits the so-called ‘ICT-productivity paradox’ from a long-run perspective by using annual Australian data for 1965–2013. It provides estimates of long-run and short-run elasticities of labour productivity with respect to ICT capital deepening, and explores the nature of long-run causality among productivity growth and ICT and non-ICT capital deepening. The estimates of long-run elasticities are derived by employing both time-series and panel data econometric techniques. The empirical results provide strong confirmatory evidence of the long-run impact of ICT capital deepening on labour productivity in Australia.

Co2 emissions and income trajectory in Australia: The role of technological change

This study investigates the relationship between per capita carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and per capita GDP in Australia, while controlling for technological state as measured by multifactor productivity and export of black coal. Although technological progress seems to play a critical role in achieving long term goals of CO2 reduction and economic growth, empirical studies have often considered time trend to proxy technological change. However, as discoveries and diffusion of new technologies may not progress smoothly with time, the assumption of a deterministic technological progress may be incorrect in the long run. The use of multifactor productivity as a measure of technological state, therefore, overcomes the limitations and provides practical policy directions. This study uses recently developed bound-testing approach, which is complemented by Johansen- Juselius maximum likelihood approach and a reasonably large sample size to investigate the cointegration relationship. Both of the techniques suggest that cointegration relationship exists among the variables. The long-run and short-run coefficients of CO2 emissions function is estimated using ARDL approach. The empirical findings in the study show evidence of the existence of Environmental Kuznets Curve type relationship for per capita CO2 emissions in the Australian context. The technology as measured by the multifactor productivity, however, is not found as an influencing variable in emissionsincome trajectory.

Energy-output linkages in Australia: Implications for emissions reduction policies

The study investigates the long-run and dynamic relationships between energy consumption and output in Australia using a multivariate cointegration and causality framework. Using both Engle-Granger and Johansen cointegration approaches, the study finds that energy consumption and real Gross Domestic Product are cointegrated. The Granger causality tests suggest bidirectional Granger causality between energy consumption and real GDP, and Granger endogeineity in the system. Since the energy sector largely contributes to carbon emissions in Australia, we suggest that direct measures to reduce carbon by putting constraints on the energy consumption would pose significant economic costs for the Australian economy.

Can technology provide a glimmer of hope for economic growth in the midst of chaos? A case of Zimbabwe

In this paper we examine the effect of technology on economic growth in Zimbabwe over the period 1975–2014 whilst accounting for structural breaks. We use the extended Cobb–Douglas type Solow (Q J Econ 70(1):65–94, 1956) framework and the ARDL bounds procedure to examine cointegration and short run and long run effects. Using unit root tests, we note that structural changes in Zimbabwe are generally marked by the period 1982 onwards. We find that mobile technology has a positive short-run (0.09 %) and long-run (0.08 %) impact on the output per capita. The structural changes post-1982 periods show positive impact in the short-run (0.06) and the long-run (0.09), whereas the coefficient of trend in the short-run (−0.03) and the long-run (−0.04) is negative. The Granger non-causality test shows a unidirectional causality from capital stock (investment) per capita to output per capita and a bi-directional causality between mobile cellular technology and output per capita. The plausible reasons for estimated magnitude effects and the direction of causality are explained for policy deliberation.

Verein Mekor Chajim Collection 1915-1918

The bulk of the collection consists of circular letters of the Jewish orthodox organization Mekor Chajim in Frankfurt/Main and of issues of ‘Feldbrief der Agudas Jisroel Jugendorganisation’, sent to Jewish soldiers during World War I; 1915-1918

Estimation of Execution Times of Process Control Algorithms on Microcomputers

An important question which has to be answered in evaluting the suitability of a microcomputer for a control application is the time it would take to execute the specified control algorithm. In this paper, we present a method of obtaining closed-form formulas to estimate this time. These formulas are applicable to control algorithms in which arithmetic operations and matrix manipulations dominate. The method does not require writing detailed programs for implementing the control algorithm. Using this method, the execution times of a variety of control algorithms on a range of 16-bit mini- and recently announced microcomputers are calculated. The formulas have been verified independently by an analysis program, which computes the execution time bounds of control algorithms coded in Pascal when they are run on a specified micro- or minicomputer.

Kirkon vai valtion kirjat? : Uskontokuntasidonnaisuuden ongelma Suomen väestökirjanpidossa 1839-1904

The Population Register – run by the Church or the state? The problem posed by the obligation to belong to a religious community in the registration of births and deaths in Finland between 1839 and 1904 The Lutheran Church of Finland is the nation’s largest church; approximately 82 per cent of Finns were members in 2007. The Church ran an official register of its members until 1999, when the state then undertook this task. The registration of births and deaths by the Church has a long history dating back to the 17th century, when Bishop Johannes Gezelius Sr. decreed that all parish members would have to be recorded in parish registers. These registers were used to control how well parish members knew the Christian doctrine and, gradually, also if they were literate. Additionally, the Church attempted to ensure by means of the parish registers that parish members went to Holy Communion annually. Since everyone was a member of the Lutheran Church, the state also took advantage of the parish registers and used them for the purposes of tax collection and conscription. The main research theme of “The Population Register – run by the Church or the state?” goes back to these times. The actual research period covers the years of 1839–1904. At that time Finland was under Russian rule, although autonomous. In the late 19th century the press and different associations in Finland began to engage in public debate, and the country started moving from a submissive society to a civic one. The identity of the Lutheran Church also became more prominent when the Church Act and the General Synod were realised in 1869. A few years earlier, municipal and parish administrations had been separated, but the general registration of births and deaths was left to the Church to see to. In compliance with the constitution of the country, all the inhabitants in principle still had to be Lutheran. In practice, the situation was different. The religious and ideological realms diversified, and the Lutheran concept of religion was no longer acceptable to everyone. The conflict was reflected in the registration of births and deaths, which was linked to the Lutheran Church and its parish registers. Nobody was allowed to leave the Church, there was no civil register, and the Lutheran Church did not consent to record unbaptized children in the parish registers. Therefore such children were left without civil rights. Thus the obligation to belong to a religious community had become a problem in the registration of births and deaths. The Lutheran clergy also appealed to the 1723 privileges, according to which they had been exempted from the drawing up of additional population registers. In 1889 Finland passed the Dissenters Act. By virtue of this act the Baptists and the Methodists left the state Church, but this was not the case with the members of the free churches. The freethinkers had to retain their church membership, as the law did not apply to them. This meant that the unbaptized children of the members of the free churches or those of freethinkers were still not entered in any registers. The children were not able to go to school, work for the state or legally marry. Neither were they able to inherit property, as they did not legally exist. The system of parish registers was created when everyone was required to be a member of the Lutheran Church, but it did not work when liberal attitudes eventually penetrated the sphere of religion, too. The government´s measures to solve the problem were slow and cautious, partly because Finland was part of Russia, partly because there were only about 100 unbaptized children. As the problem group was small and the state´s resources were limited, no general civil register was established. The state accepted the fact that in spite of the problems, the Evangelical Lutheran Church and the congregations of dissenters were the only official establishments to run populations registers in the country, and for social purposes, too. In 1900 the Diet of Finland finally approved a limited civil register, which unbaptized children and unregistered foreigners would be recorded in. Due to political reasons the civil register did not come into existence until 1917, after the actual research period.

Sustainable bioenergy for India: Technical, economic and policy analysis

India's energy challenges are multi-pronged. They are manifested through growing demand for modern energy carriers, a fossil fuel dominated energy system facing a severe resource crunch, the need for creating access to quality energy for the large section of deprived population, vulnerable energy security, local and global pollution regimes and the need for sustaining economic development. Renewable energy is considered as one of the most promising alternatives. Recognizing this potential, India has been implementing one of the largest renewable energy programmes in the world. Among the renewable energy technologies. bioenergy has a large diverse portfolio including efficient biomass stoves, biogas, biomass combustion and gasification and process heat and liquid fuels. India has also formulated and implemented a number of innovative policies and programmes to promote bioenergy technologies. However, according to some preliminary studies, the success rate is marginal compared to the potential available. This limited success is a clear indicator of the need for a serious reassessment of the bioenergy programme. Further, a realization of the need for adopting a sustainable energy path to address the above challenges will be the guiding force in this reassessment. In this paper an attempt is made to consider the potential of bioenergy to meet the rural energy needs: (I) biomass combustion and gasification for electricity; (2) biomethanation for cooking energy (gas) and electricity; and (3) efficient wood-burning devices for cooking. The paper focuses on analysing the effectiveness of bioenergy in creating this rural energy access and its sustainability in the long run through assessing: the demand for bioenergy and potential that could be created; technologies, status of commercialization and technology transfer and dissemination in India; economic and environmental performance and impacts: bioenergy policies, regulatory measures and barrier analysis. The whole assessment aims at presenting bioenergy as an integral part of a sustainable energy strategy for India. The results show that bioenergy technology (BET) alternatives compare favourably with the conventional ones. The cost comparisons show that the unit costs of BET alternatives are in the range of 15-187% of the conventional alternatives. The climate change benefits in terms of carbon emission reductions are to the tune of 110 T C per year provided the available potential of BETs are utilized.

Being chased by zombies!: Understanding the experience of mixed reality quests

Both researchers and practitioners show increasing interest in exploring mixed reality games: games, where physical environments blend together with digital technologies. In this paper we have extended earlier work by bringing attention to the role of narrative in mixed reality games. For our case study we chose a mobile phone application Zombies Run!, which is designed to support actual running. This application contains a fictional story about a zombie apocalypse and provides runners with various quests (in the form of missions) to complete during their run. We investigated different aspects of participants' experience with the application and how it changed their running. Our findings show how the app changed running in three major ways. Firstly, it changed the way runs were organised. Secondly, it shook up established running routines. And lastly, it shaped the meanings associated with running.

Studies on the Effects of Property Taxation, Rent Control and Housing Allowances

Tämä väitöskirja koostuu asuntomarkkinoiden taloustieteellistä analyysia esittelevästä johdantoluvusta ja kolmesta tutkimuksesta, joissa analysoidaan asuntomarkkinoihin vaikuttavia politiikkatoimenpiteitä. Luvussa 2 tutkitaan Suomen kiinteistöverojärjestelmän vaikutusta asuntorakentamiseen. Vuonna 2001 tehtiin uudistus, jonka myötä kunnat voivat verottaa rakentamatonta asuintonttia korkeammalla veroasteella kuin rakennettua tonttia. Maanomistajan rakentamispäätöksen teoreettisen mallin mukaan rakentamattoman tontin korotettu kiinteistöveron pitäisi nopeuttaa rakentamista, mutta toisaalta myös rakentamiseen investoitu rahamäärä saattaa muuttua. Asuintonttien kiinteistöverojen yleinen taso ei vaikuta maanomistajan käyttäytymiseen, sillä tontin verotusarvo ei riipu rakentamispäätöksestä. Vain rakentamattoman ja rakennetun tontin veroasteiden erolla on merkitystä. Empiiriset tulokset ovat sopusoinnussa teorian kanssa. Tulosten mukaan prosenttiyksikön nousu rakentamattoman ja rakennetun tontin veroasteiden erossa lisää omakotialoitusten määrää viidellä prosentilla lyhyellä aikavälillä. Luvussa 3 analysoidaan vuokrasääntelystä vuokralaisille aiheutuvia hyötyjä ja haittoja. Vuokrasäännellyissä asunnoissa asuvat kotitaloudet hyötyvät vuokrasääntelystä alhaisen vuokran muodossa. Heille saattaa kuitenkin koitua myös haittaa siitä, että toiveita vastaavan asunnon löytäminen on vuokrasääntelytilanteessa vaikeaa, koska vapaille asunnoille on suuri määrä ottajia. Vapaarahoitteisen vuokra-asuntokannan vuokrien sääntely purettiin Suomessa asteittain vuosina 1992–1995. Tutkimuksen empiiriset tulokset viittaavat siihen, että vuokrasääntelyn aiheuttamista suurista eroista halutun ja todellisen asuntokulutuksen välillä koituvat hyvinvointitappiot kumosivat merkittävän osan matalien vuokrien hyödyistä vuokralaisille. Luvussa 4 tutkitaan Suomen asumistukijärjestelmän kannustinvaikutuksia. Asumistuen määrää rajoittavat asunnon pinta-alalle ja neliövuokralle asetetut ylärajat. Neliövuokrarajoite voidaan tulkita asumisen laatua rajoittavana tekijänä. Tutkimuksen teoreettisessa osassa osoitetaan, että asumistukijärjestelmä luo vahvat kannustimet muuttaa asuntoihin, joissa pinta-ala- ja laaturajoitteet purevat. Empiiristen tulosten mukaan asumistukeen oikeutetut kotitaloudet eivät näytä reagoivan kannusteisiin. Tukeen oikeutettujen kotitalouksien asumisvalinnat suhteessa pinta-ala ja laaturajoitteisiin vastaavat muiden kotitalouksien valintoja ja asunnonvaihdon mahdollistama potentiaalinen asumistuen lisäys ei nosta muuttotodennäköisyyttä. Muuttamiseen liittyvät kustannukset ja vajavaiset tiedot tukijärjestelmästä saattavat selittää heikkoa reagointia asumistuen luomiin kannustimiin. Toinen mahdollinen selitys on asumistuen vajaakäyttö. Tutkimuksen mukaan vain 70–80 prosenttia asumistukeen oikeutetuista kotitalouksista nostaa tukea. Asumistuen hyödyntämisen todennäköisyys riippuu koulutustasosta, tuen määrästä ja tulo-odotuksista.