Use of Poisson spatiotemporal regression models for the Brazilian Amazon Forest: malaria count data

INTRODUÇÃO: A malaria é uma doença endêmica na região da Amazônia Brasileira, e a detecção de possíveis fatores de risco pode ser de grande interesse às autoridades em saúde pública. O objetivo deste artigo é investigar a associação entre variáveis ambientais e os registros anuais de malária na região amazônica usando métodos bayesianos espaço-temporais. MÉTODOS: Utilizaram-se modelos de regressão espaço-temporais de Poisson para analisar os dados anuais de contagem de casos de malária entre os anos de 1999 a 2008, considerando a presença de alguns fatores como a taxa de desflorestamento. em uma abordagem bayesiana, as inferências foram obtidas por métodos Monte Carlo em cadeias de Markov (MCMC) que simularam amostras para a distribuição conjunta a posteriori de interesse. A discriminação de diferentes modelos também foi discutida. RESULTADOS: O modelo aqui proposto sugeriu que a taxa de desflorestamento, o número de habitants por km² e o índice de desenvolvimento humano (IDH) são importantes para a predição de casos de malária. CONCLUSÕES: É possível concluir que o desenvolvimento humano, o crescimento populacional, o desflorestamento e as alterações ecológicas associadas a estes fatores estão associados ao aumento do risco de malária. Pode-se ainda concluir que o uso de modelos de regressão de Poisson que capturam o efeito temporal e espacial em um enfoque bayesiano é uma boa estratégia para modelar dados de contagem de malária.

Comparação quantitativa da comunidade de aves de um fragmento de floresta semidecidual do interior do Estado de São Paulo em intervalo de 30 anos

Poucos estudos avaliaram em longo prazo a variação no tamanho populacional das espécies de aves em fragmentos florestais. Para avaliar a riqueza e a abundância específica da comunidade de aves de um remanescente de mata semidecidual do interior do Estado de São Paulo, sudeste do Brasil, foi conduzido o censo da avifauna florestal utilizando-se a metodologia de contagem em transecção. Estes resultados foram comparados com levantamento realizado na mesma localidade 30 anos antes, e as aves foram classificadas de acordo com suas categorias alimentares com a finalidade de associá-las à tendência ao aumento/diminuição de suas abundâncias após este intervalo de tempo. Embora tenha havido predominância de espécies com diminuição populacional, todas as categorias tróficas analisadas apresentaram também espécies com aumento em suas abundâncias. A maioria das espécies com propensão a deslocarem-se entre fragmentos apresentou diminuição em suas abundâncias. Sugerimos que, em relação a suas abundâncias específicas, as categorias tróficas são igualmente afetadas pelos processos da fragmentação, e que a regeneração florestal sofrida pelo remanescente pode ter resultado na perda de espécies de bordas. Espécies cujas abundâncias tenham reduzido neste intervalo de tempo podem sofrer extinção local futuramente.

EFFICIENT FAULT LOCATION IN UNDERGROUND DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS THROUGH OPTIMUM-PATH FOREST

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

An Optimum-Path Forest framework for intrusion detection in computer networks

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Efficient supervised optimum-path forest classification for large datasets

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A New Approach for Nontechnical Losses Detection Based on Optimum-Path Forest

Nowadays, fraud detection is important to avoid nontechnical energy losses. Various electric companies around the world have been faced with such losses, mainly from industrial and commercial consumers. This problem has traditionally been dealt with using artificial intelligence techniques, although their use can result in difficulties such as a high computational burden in the training phase and problems with parameter optimization. A recently-developed pattern recognition technique called optimum-path forest (OPF), however, has been shown to be superior to state-of-the-art artificial intelligence techniques. In this paper, we proposed to use OPF for nontechnical losses detection, as well as to apply its learning and pruning algorithms to this purpose. Comparisons against neural networks and other techniques demonstrated the robustness of the OPF with respect to commercial losses automatic identification.

Relief influence on tree species richness in secondary forest fragments of Atlantic Forest, SE, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Evaluation of the kinetics of xylose formation from dilute sulfuric acid hydrolysis of forest residues of Eucalyptus grandis

Dilute acid hydrolysis studies were performed on forest residues of Eucalyptus grandis, in a cylindrical reactor of stainless steel. The kinetics of this hydrolysis reaction was investigated employing 0.65% sulfuric acid, a residue/acid solution ratio of 1/9 (w/w), temperatures of 130, 140, 150, and 160 degrees C, and reaction times in the range 20-100 min. The results showed that, under the optimized conditions of acid hydrolysis employed in this study, the variables temperature and reaction time had a strong influence on hemicellulose removal and a small influence on the degree of lignin and cellulose removal. The highest xylose extraction yield was 87.6% attained at 160 degrees C, after 70 min reaction time, simultaneously with the formation of decomposition products, namely 2.8% acetic acid, 0.6% furfural, and 0.06% 5-hydroxymethylfurfural. A similar xylose extraction yield (82.8%) was observed at 150 degrees C after 100 min, with the formation of 3.2% acetic acid, 1.0% furfural, and 0.07% 5-hydroxymethylfurfural. The kinetic parameters determined at 130, 140, 150, and 160 degrees C for degradation of xylan present in the hemicellulose of the eucalyptus forest residue during the formation of xylose were the first-order reaction rate constants (k) for each temperature, 1.22 x 10(-4), 2.12 x 10(-4), 5.43 x 10(-4), and 9.05 x 10(-4) s(-1), respectively, and an activation energy (E-a) of 101.3 kJ mol(-1).

Mercury emissions from forest burning in southern Amazon

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Laboratory evaluation of Amazon forest biomass burning emissions

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Forest natural regeneration and biomass production after slash and burn in a seasonally dry forest in the Southern Brazilian Amazon

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Biomass consumption and CO2, CO and main hydrocarbon gas emissions in an Amazonian forest clearing fire

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Estrutura da Comunidade de Lagartos de um remanescente de mata atlântica do Estado do Rio Grande Do Norte, Brasil.

As part of a broader project, Diversity and Distribution Patterns of Floristic and Faunistic composition of remnants of Potiguar s Atlantic Forest, as subsidies to conservation , that subsidizes a group of institutional research, This study aimed to evaluate the structure of the assemblage of lizards a remnant of the of the northern Atlantic Forest, identifying ecological factor (s) that contribute to the coexistence of sympatric species. Additionally, we studied the thermal ecology and thermoregulatory behavior of umbrophily and heliophily species live the Parque Estadual Mata da Pipa (PEMP), a remnant of Atlantic forest located in the Tibau do Sul municipality of, Rio Grande do Norte State, Brazil. It is one of the largest remnants of the Atlantic Forest and has an area of approximately 290 ha. The study was performed by four excursions to the field for 20 days each, when active search and pitfalls traps were used to record and colleted specimens in different habitats of the area. We recorded the presence of 19 species of lizards, of which seven are typical of forest areas, three are endemic Atlantic Forest, these two northern and one are new record for the Rio Grande do Norte. The use of resources, the results showed that phylogenetically related species do not always use a similar way the resources available; the feeding niche was the segregated component of the species that overlapped extensively in the use of space and vice versa. To examine the thermal ecology and thermoregulatory behavior of Kentropyx calcarata and Coleodactylus natalensis, we recorded the clocal temperature (Tc), oh the substrate (Ts) and of the air (Ta) to investigate what of these are the source of heat more important to the temperature s body of these lizards. Behavioral observations were conducted to analyze strategies to optimize the acquisition of heat. The air temperature explained most strongly to variation in body temperature of K. calcarata, while the temperature of the substrate to C. natalensis. As for the behavioral observations, they confirmed that K. calcarata is an active thermoregulatory; C. natalensis is a passive thermoregulatory.

Evidence that the Ceratobasidium-like white-thread blight and black rot fungal pathogens from persimmon and tea crops in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest agroecosystem are two distinct phylospecies

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Movements of bats (Mammalia, Chiroptera) in Atlantic Forest remnants in southern Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)