Modeling the risk of malaria for travelers to areas with stable malaria transmission

Background: Malaria is an important threat to travelers visiting endemic regions. The risk of acquiring malaria is complex and a number of factors including transmission intensity, duration of exposure, season of the year and use of chemoprophylaxis have to be taken into account estimating risk. Materials and methods: A mathematical model was developed to estimate the risk of non-immune individual acquiring falciparum malaria when traveling to the Amazon region of Brazil. The risk of malaria infection to travelers was calculated as a function of duration of exposure and season of arrival. Results: The results suggest significant variation of risk for non-immune travelers depending on arrival season, duration of the visit and transmission intensity. The calculated risk for visitors staying longer than 4 months during peak transmission was 0.5% per visit. Conclusions: Risk estimates based on mathematical modeling based on accurate data can be a valuable tool in assessing risk/benefits and cost/benefits when deciding on the value of interventions for travelers to malaria endemic regions.

Toxic and essential elements in blood from delivering women in selected areas of Sao Paulo State, Brazil

This study was designed to evaluate the degree of environmental contamination and possible exposure of pregnant women to toxic elements in seven selected areas of Sao Paulo State, Brazil. The overall median concentration of Mo in maternal blood was 0.53 mu g L(-1), highly significant differences found between sites (p < 0.0001). Cd was found to be low overall - 0.09 mu g L(-1) (0.01-0.58 mu g L(-1)) - with mothers from the Coastal and Rural 1 sites having the highest levels (p < 0.016). Median Hg concentration was 0.60 mu g L (1) (0.06 mu g L (1)-4.35 mu g L (1)); median Pb level was 16.2 mu g L (1) (3.5-57.7 mu g L(-1)) and no differences between sites were observed for both metals. Median Mn level was 16.7 mu g L(-1) (7.0-39.7 mu g L(-1)), being highest in Urban 2 site (p < 0.016). Concentrations of maternal Co were found to range between 0.06 mu g L(-1) and 1.1 mu g L(-1) (median 0.25 mu g L(-1)) and As level was 0.60 mu g L(-1) (0.10-3.8 mu g L(-1)) overall, with no statistical significance between sites for Co and As. Median Se concentrations were found to be 64 mg L(-1) (36-233 mu g L(-1)), with the highest median levels found in Urban 3 site; site differences were statistically significant (p < 0.0001). Correlation for each element (between paired maternal and cord blood) was measured only in Rural site 1; significant correlation was shown for Hg, Pb, Mn and Co (p < 0.05). These findings may be interpreted as indicating low environmental contamination in Sao Paulo State, Brazil. These findings could also indicate that pregnant women have little or no contact with pollutants, possibly due to awareness campaigns carried out by public health practitioners.

Serological Survey for Antibodies to Encephalitozoon cuniculi in Ownerless Dogs From Urban Areas of Brazil and Colombia

There are 3 strains of Encephalitozoon cuniculi that occur in mammals. Strain III is associated with clinical disease in dogs, although some can be asymptomatic carriers and excrete spores in their urine. Several cases of human E. cuniculi infection caused by strain III have been observed in immunocompromised patients, indicating that E. cuniculi should be considered a zoonotic agent. Encephalitozoon cuniculi can cause fatal disease in maternally-infected or young dogs. Clinical signs in these animals included blindness, encephalitis, retarded growth rate, and nephritis. Encephalitozoon cuniculi has also been associated with primary renal failure in adult dogs. The present study used the direct agglutination test (DAT, cut-off 1:50) and the indirect fluorescent antibody test (IFAT, cut-off 1:10) to examine the prevalence of antibodies to E. cuniculi in dogs from Brazil and Colombia. Using the DAG, 31 (27.4%) of 113 dogs from Brazil and 47 (18.5%) of 254 dogs from Colombia were seropositive. Nine (14.3%) of 63 dogs from Brazil and IS (35.3%) of the 51 dogs from Colombia were seropositive by indirect immunofluorescent antibody test. These results indicate that dogs from Brazil and Colombia are exposed to E. cuniculi.

Molecular and geographic analyses of vampire bat-transmitted cattle rabies in central Brazil

Background: Vampire bats are important rabies virus vectors, causing critical problems in both the livestock industry and public health sector in Latin America. In order to assess the epidemiological characteristics of vampire bat-transmitted rabies, the authors conducted phylogenetic and geographical analyses using sequence data of a large number of cattle rabies isolates collected from a wide geographical area in Brazil. Methods: Partial nucleoprotein genes of rabies viruses isolated from 666 cattle and 18 vampire bats between 1987 and 2006 were sequenced and used for phylogenetic analysis. The genetic variants were plotted on topographical maps of Brazil. Results: In this study, 593 samples consisting of 24 genetic variants were analyzed. Regional localization of variants was observed, with the distribution of several variants found to be delimited by mountain ranges which served as geographic boundaries. The geographical distributions of vampire-bat and cattle isolates that were classified as the identical phylogenetic group were found to overlap with high certainty. Most of the samples analyzed in this study were isolated from adjacent areas linked by rivers. Conclusion: This study revealed the existence of several dozen regional variants associated with vampire bats in Brazil, with the distribution patterns of these variants found to be affected by mountain ranges and rivers. These results suggest that epidemiological characteristics of vampire bat-related rabies appear to be associated with the topographical and geographical characteristics of areas where cattle are maintained, and the factors affecting vampire bat ecology.

Cost effectiveness of OptiMal (R) rapid diagnostic test for malaria in remote areas of the Amazon Region, Brazil

Background: In areas with limited structure in place for microscopy diagnosis, rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) have been demonstrated to be effective. Method: The cost-effectiveness of the Optimal (R) and thick smear microscopy was estimated and compared. Data were collected on remote areas of 12 municipalities in the Brazilian Amazon. Data sources included the National Malaria Control Programme of the Ministry of Health, the National Healthcare System reimbursement table, hospitalization records, primary data collected from the municipalities, and scientific literature. The perspective was that of the Brazilian public health system, the analytical horizon was from the start of fever until the diagnostic results provided to patient and the temporal reference was that of year 2006. The results were expressed in costs per adequately diagnosed cases in 2006 U. S. dollars. Sensitivity analysis was performed considering key model parameters. Results: In the case base scenario, considering 92% and 95% sensitivity for thick smear microscopy to Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax, respectively, and 100% specificity for both species, thick smear microscopy is more costly and more effective, with an incremental cost estimated at US$ 549.9 per adequately diagnosed case. In sensitivity analysis, when sensitivity and specificity of microscopy for P. vivax were 0.90 and 0.98, respectively, and when its sensitivity for P. falciparum was 0.83, the RDT was more cost-effective than microscopy. Conclusion: Microscopy is more cost-effective than OptiMal (R) in these remote areas if high accuracy of microscopy is maintained in the field. Decision regarding use of rapid tests for diagnosis of malaria in these areas depends on current microscopy accuracy in the field.

Restricted-Range Fishes and the Conservation of Brazilian Freshwaters

Background: Freshwaters are the most threatened ecosystems on earth. Although recent assessments provide data on global priority regions for freshwater conservation, local scale priorities remain unknown. Refining the scale of global biodiversity assessments (both at terrestrial and freshwater realms) and translating these into conservation priorities on the ground remains a major challenge to biodiversity science, and depends directly on species occurrence data of high taxonomic and geographic resolution. Brazil harbors the richest freshwater ichthyofauna in the world, but knowledge on endemic areas and conservation in Brazilian rivers is still scarce. Methodology/Principal Findings: Using data on environmental threats and revised species distribution data we detect and delineate 540 small watershed areas harboring 819 restricted-range fishes in Brazil. Many of these areas are already highly threatened, as 159 (29%) watersheds have lost more than 70% of their original vegetation cover, and only 141 (26%) show significant overlap with formally protected areas or indigenous lands. We detected 220 (40%) critical watersheds overlapping hydroelectric dams or showing both poor formal protection and widespread habitat loss; these sites harbor 344 endemic fish species that may face extinction if no conservation action is in place in the near future. Conclusions/Significance: We provide the first analysis of site-scale conservation priorities in the richest freshwater ecosystems of the globe. Our results corroborate the hypothesis that freshwater biodiversity has been neglected in former conservation assessments. The study provides a simple and straightforward method for detecting freshwater priority areas based on endemism and threat, and represents a starting point for integrating freshwater and terrestrial conservation in representative and biogeographically consistent site-scale conservation strategies, that may be scaled-up following naturally linked drainage systems. Proper management (e. g. forestry code enforcement, landscape planning) and conservation (e. g. formal protection) of the 540 watersheds detected herein will be decisive in avoiding species extinction in the richest aquatic ecosystems on the planet.

Transport properties in nontwist area-preserving maps

Nontwist systems, common in the dynamical descriptions of fluids and plasmas, possess a shearless curve with a concomitant transport barrier that eliminates or reduces chaotic transport, even after its breakdown. In order to investigate the transport properties of nontwist systems, we analyze the barrier escape time and barrier transmissivity for the standard nontwist map, a paradigm of such systems. We interpret the sensitive dependence of these quantities upon map parameters by investigating chaotic orbit stickiness and the associated role played by the dominant crossing of stable and unstable manifolds. (C) 2009 American Institute of Physics. [doi: 10.1063/1.3247349]

The use of contingent valuation for evaluating protected areas in the developing world: Economic valuation of Morro do Diabo State Park, Atlantic Rainforest, Sao Paulo State (Brazil)

The Brazilian Atlantic Rainforest is internationally recognised as one of the most biodiverse and threatened tropical forests in the world [Myers, N., Mittermeier, R.A., Mittermeier, C.G., da Fonseca, G.A.B., Kent, J., 2000. Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities. Nature 403, 853-858]. The Seasonal Semi-Deciduous Forest is among the most fragmented and threatened biomes of the Atlantic Rainforest Domain. The largest remnant of this biome (35,000 ha) is protected by the Morro do Diabo State Park (MDSP), situated in the area known as the Pontal do Paranapanema, in Sao Paulo State, Brazil. Despite its environmental importance, the park is under political, economic and demographic pressure. The main aim of our research was to estimate the population`s willingness to pay (WTP) for the conservation of MDSP and for the Atlantic Rainforest`s remnants in Sao Paulo State as a whole, by means of the contingent valuation method (CVM). The results featured a high incidence of null WTP and of protest votes. Nevertheless, the population is willing to pay US$ 2,113,548.00/year (R$ 7,080,385.00/year) for the conservation of the MDSP (use and existence values), or US$ 60.39 ha/year (R$ 202.30/ha/year). The results indicate that the preservation value is strongly associated to the population`s ability to pay, increasing with income levels. Qualitative research questions showed that the population considers protected areas to be very important. Still, the valuation of MDSP revealed a gap between the government budget allotted to the park and the value assigned to the area by the public. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessment of Depressive Symptoms and Cognitive Impairment in Elders From Rural Areas of the Brazilian State of Rio Grande do Sul

The main objective of this study was to examine the relationships among demographic characteristics, depressive symptoms, and cognitive impairment in oldest-old elders from rural areas of the Brazilian State of Rio Grande do Sul. A cross-sectional, descriptive correlational design was used to conduct the study. 137 Brazilian elders age 80 years or over. A target population data form, a county data form, a demographic questionnaire, the Mini-Mental State Examination, and the Depressive Cognition Scale were used to collect the data. A significant difference was found between males and females in regard to cognitive impairment. In addition, educational level and depressive symptoms were correlated with cognitive impairment. Depressive symptoms were a weak but significant predictor of cognitive impairment after controlling for the effect of age, gender, and educational level of the oldest-old elders. The findings need to be interpreted cautiously since the sample scored above the cutoff points for cognitive impairment, and had low scores on depressive symptoms. Despite several limitations, findings from this study can be a foundation for further studies, and well-designed correlational or experimental approaches, are warranted.

Combined heuristic with fuzzy system to transmission system expansion planning

A heuristic algorithm that employs fuzzy logic is proposed to the power system transmission expansion planning problem. The algorithm is based on the divide to conquer strategy, which is controlled by the fuzzy system. The algorithm provides high quality solutions with the use of fuzzy decision making, which is based on nondeterministic criteria to guide the search. The fuzzy system provides a self-adjusting mechanism that eliminates the manual adjustment of parameters to each system being solved. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multi-objective analysis of impacts of distributed generation placement on the operational characteristics of networks for distribution system planning

Recent advances in energy technology generation and new directions in electricity regulation have made distributed generation (DG) more widespread, with consequent significant impacts on the operational characteristics of distribution networks. For this reason, new methods for identifying such impacts are needed, together with research and development of new tools and resources to maintain and facilitate continued expansion towards DG. This paper presents a study aimed at determining appropriate DG sites for distribution systems. The main considerations which determine DG sites are also presented, together with an account of the advantages gained from correct DG placement. The paper intends to define some quantitative and qualitative parameters evaluated by Digsilent (R), GARP3 (R) and DSA-GD software. A multi-objective approach based on the Bellman-Zadeh algorithm and fuzzy logic is used to determine appropriate DG sites. The study also aims to find acceptable DG locations both for distribution system feeders, as well as for nodes inside a given feeder. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluating an Agile Method for Planning and Controlling Innovative Projects

This article presents an extensive investigation carried out in two technology-based companies of the So Carlos technological pole in Brazil. Based on this multiple case study and literature review, a method, entitled hereafter IVPM2, applying agile project management (APM) principles was developed. After the method implementation, a qualitative evaluation was carried out by a document analysis and questionnaire application. This article shows that the application of this method at the companies under investigation evidenced the benefits of using simple, iterative, visual, and agile techniques to plan and control innovative product projects combined with traditional project management best practices, such as standardization.

Urban upgrading interventions and engaging residents in fuzzy management: Case studies from Novos Alagados, Salvador, Brazil

International theory and practice have promoted state-assisted upgrading of `informal` urban areas worldwide since the late 1970s, with various forms of monitoring and assessment of impact. Two independent studies of how residents perceive and evaluate such interventions have recently been undertaken for neighbouring parts of the upgraded area of Novos Alagados on the Itapagipe peninsula in the northwestern part of Salvador, Brazil`s third largest city. These studies start from different premises and have been implemented in very different ways, but both have the objective of permitting the `voice` of the residents to be heard concerning the upgrading process. Comparing them helps highlight the essential `fuzzy` nature of values concerning urban interventions of this nature and leaves us with thought-provoking questions concerning the role of local society in relation to the state in urban development, and the potential this has for on-going forms of urban management in cities which are emerging globally. Crown Copyright (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Planning and operation of large-scale water distribution systems with preemptive priorities

This paper describes the development of an optimization model for the management and operation of a large-scale, multireservoir water supply distribution system with preemptive priorities. The model considers multiobjectives and hedging rules. During periods of drought, when water supply is insufficient to meet the planned demand, appropriate rationing factors are applied to reduce water supply. In this paper, a water distribution system is formulated as a network and solved by the GAMS modeling system for mathematical programming and optimization. A user-friendly interface is developed to facilitate the manipulation of data and to generate graphs and tables for decision makers. The optimization model and its interface form a decision support system (DSS), which can be used to configure a water distribution system to facilitate capacity expansion and reliability studies. Several examples are presented to demonstrate the utility and versatility of the developed DSS under different supply and demand scenarios, including applications to one of the largest water supply systems in the world, the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area Water Supply Distribution System in Brazil.

Logística para agregados (brita e areia) em grandes centros urbanos

One of the human being`s basic needs is housing. In Brazil, the basic element for this is concrete, artificial stone, which demands a great amount of aggregates, such as sand and gravel. The sand and rocks are abundant in nature and gravel can be produced at low cost. However, transportation to the area of product utilization can be an incremental factor in the final cost logistics. Both sand and gravel have expressive price variations, which are not necessarily related to mining activities, but to logistic activities, mainly their distribution. Restrictive measures adopted in large urban centers, such as prohibition of hauling trucks in certain areas or during certain hours, alternate license plate end number system (even number plate ending can circulate on even-numbered days and visa versa), and axle-control, generate a need for a larger and more diversified fleet, not to mention more employees.