Three essays in international finance

Executive Summary The first essay of this dissertation investigates whether greater exchange rate uncertainty (i.e., variation over time in the exchange rate) fosters or depresses the foreign investment of multinational firms. In addition to the direct capital financing it supplies, foreign investment can be a source of valuable technology and know-how, which can have substantial positive effects on a host country's economic growth. Thus, it is critically important for policy makers and central bankers, among others, to understand how multinationals base their investment decisions on the characteristics of foreign exchange markets. In this essay, I first develop a theoretical framework to improve our knowledge regarding how the aggregate level of foreign investment responds to exchange rate uncertainty when an economy consists of many firms, each of which is making decisions. The analysis predicts a U-shaped effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the total level of foreign investment of the economy. That is, the effect is negative for low levels of uncertainty and positive for higher levels of uncertainty. This pattern emerges because the relationship between exchange rate volatility and 'the probability of investment is negative for firms with low productivity at home (i.e., firms that find it profitable to invest abroad) and the relationship is positive for firms with high productivity at home (i.e., firms that prefer exporting their product). This finding stands in sharp contrast to predictions in the existing literature that consider a single firm's decision to invest in a unique project. The main contribution of this research is to show that the aggregation over many firms produces a U-shaped pattern between exchange rate uncertainty and the probability of investment. Using data from industrialized countries for the period of 1982-2002, this essay offers a comprehensive empirical analysis that provides evidence in support of the theoretical prediction. In the second essay, I aim to explain the time variation in sovereign credit risk, which captures the risk that a government may be unable to repay its debt. The importance of correctly evaluating such a risk is illustrated by the central role of sovereign debt in previous international lending crises. In addition, sovereign debt is the largest asset class in emerging markets. In this essay, I provide a pricing formula for the evaluation of sovereign credit risk in which the decision to default on sovereign debt is made by the government. The pricing formula explains the variation across time in daily credit spreads - a widely used measure of credit risk - to a degree not offered by existing theoretical and empirical models. I use information on a country's stock market to compute the prevailing sovereign credit spread in that country. The pricing formula explains a substantial fraction of the time variation in daily credit spread changes for Brazil, Mexico, Peru, and Russia for the 1998-2008 period, particularly during the recent subprime crisis. I also show that when a government incentive to default is allowed to depend on current economic conditions, one can best explain the level of credit spreads, especially during the recent period of financial distress. In the third essay, I show that the risk of sovereign default abroad can produce adverse consequences for the U.S. equity market through a decrease in returns and an increase in volatility. The risk of sovereign default, which is no longer limited to emerging economies, has recently become a major concern for financial markets. While sovereign debt plays an increasing role in today's financial environment, the effects of sovereign credit risk on the U.S. financial markets have been largely ignored in the literature. In this essay, I develop a theoretical framework that explores how the risk of sovereign default abroad helps explain the level and the volatility of U.S. equity returns. The intuition for this effect is that negative economic shocks deteriorate the fiscal situation of foreign governments, thereby increasing the risk of a sovereign default that would trigger a local contraction in economic growth. The increased risk of an economic slowdown abroad amplifies the direct effect of these shocks on the level and the volatility of equity returns in the U.S. through two channels. The first channel involves a decrease in the future earnings of U.S. exporters resulting from unfavorable adjustments to the exchange rate. The second channel involves investors' incentives to rebalance their portfolios toward safer assets, which depresses U.S. equity prices. An empirical estimation of the model with monthly data for the 1994-2008 period provides evidence that the risk of sovereign default abroad generates a strong leverage effect during economic downturns, which helps to substantially explain the level and the volatility of U.S. equity returns.

Therapeutic Drug Monitoring of the new targeted anticancer agents imatinib, nilotinib, dasatinib, sunitinib, sorafenib and lapatinib by LC tandem mass spectrometry.

The treatment of some cancer patients has shifted from traditional, non-specific cytotoxic chemotherapy to chronic treatment with molecular targeted therapies. Imatinib mesylate, a selective inhibitor of tyrosine kinases (TKIs) is the most prominent example of this new era and has opened the way to the development of several additional TKIs, including sunitinib, nilotinib, dasatinib, sorafenib and lapatinib, in the treatment of various hematological malignancies and solid tumors. All these agents are characterized by an important inter-individual pharmacokinetic variability, are at risk for drug interactions, and are not devoid of toxicity. Additionally, they are administered for prolonged periods, anticipating the careful monitoring of their plasma exposure via Therapeutic Drug Monitoring (TDM) to be an important component of patients' follow-up. We have developed a liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry method (LC-MS/MS) requiring 100 microL of plasma for the simultaneous determination of the six major TKIs currently in use. Plasma is purified by protein precipitation and the supernatant is diluted in ammonium formate 20 mM (pH 4.0) 1:2. Reverse-phase chromatographic separation of TKIs is obtained using a gradient elution of 20 mM ammonium formate pH 2.2 and acetonitrile containing 1% formic acid, followed by rinsing and re-equilibration to the initial solvent composition up to 20 min. Analyte quantification, using matrix-matched calibration samples, is performed by electro-spray ionization-triple quadrupole mass spectrometry by selected reaction monitoring detection using the positive mode. The method was validated according to FDA recommendations, including assessment of extraction yield, matrix effects variability (<9.6%), overall process efficiency (87.1-104.2%), as well as TKIs short- and long-term stability in plasma. The method is precise (inter-day CV%: 1.3-9.4%), accurate (-9.2 to +9.9%) and sensitive (lower limits of quantification comprised between 1 and 10 ng/mL). This is the first broad-range LC-MS/MS assay covering the major currently in-use TKIs. It is an improvement over previous methods in terms of convenience (a single extraction procedure for six major TKIs, reducing significantly the analytical time), sensitivity, selectivity and throughput. It may contribute to filling the current knowledge gaps in the pharmacokinetics/pharmacodynamics relationships of the latest TKIs developed after imatinib and better define their therapeutic ranges in different patient populations in order to evaluate whether a systematic TDM-guided dose adjustment of these anticancer drugs could contribute to minimize the risk of major adverse reactions and to increase the probability of efficient, long lasting, therapeutic response.

Consumer Food Safety Knowledge, Microbiology &amp; Refrigeration Temperatures in Domestic Kitchens

This study examined consumer food safety knowledge on the island of Ireland. Domestic refrigerators were tested for the presence of a range of pathogenic bacteria.

A Study of Food Safety Knowledge, Microbiology and Refrigeration Temperatures in Restaurant Kitchens on the Island of Ireland

A population-based telephone survey conducted in 2002 estimated that there were 3.2 million episodes of acute gastroenteritis on the island of Ireland each year (Scallon et al., 2004). It is often very dif ficult to definitively identify the source of illness. However, of the respondents in that study suspecting food as the reason for their illness, 74% blamed food consumed from commercial premises such as restaurants, cafés, takeaways, canteens and pubs. Within the food services industry, statistics show a significant level of prosecutions, prohibition and closure orders of restaurants for food hygiene offences. The Food Safety Authority of Ireland has identified the main contributory factors to foodborne infections to be: cross-contamination, inadequate cooking, inadequate storage, inadequate reheating, delayed serving and infected food handlers (FSAI, 2000). Development of appropriate training and education campaigns to target problem areas requires initial understanding of the current level of food safety knowledge and practices in the food services industry.

Epidemiology of leishmaniasis in Ecuador: current status of knowledge - A review

Although leishmaniasis is regarded as a significant health problem in Ecuador by the Ministry of Health, and the incidence has increased over the last years, an official map on the geographic distribution of disease and sand fly vectors or a control strategy do not exist yet. This article reviews the current situation based on published information to improve our knowledge and understand the epidemiological situation of leishmaniasis in Ecuador in order to help future research and to develop a national control strategy. The disease is endemic in most provinces throughout Pacific coastal region, Amazonian lowlands, and some inter-Andean valleys with a total 21,805 cases reported during 1990-2003. Whereas cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is found throughout Ecuador, mucocutaneous leishmaniasis (MCL) appears to be restricted to the Amazon region; one, parasitologically unconfirmed case of visceral form was reported in 1949. Most human infections are caused by Leishmania (Viannia) spp., which is distributed in the subtropical and tropical lowlands; infections due to L. (Leishmania) spp. are found in the Andean highlands and in the Pacific lowlands as well. The proven vectors are Lutzomyia trapidoi and Lu. ayacuchensis. Canis familiaris, Sciurus vulgaris, Potos flavus, and Tamandua tetradactyla have been found infected with Leishmania spp. It is estimated that around 3000-4500 people may be infected every year, and that 3.1 to 4.5 millions people are estimated to be at risk of contracting leishmaniasis.

A Kilkenny Post-primary School Survey: A Survey of Knowledge, Attitudes and Behaviour Relevant to Noncommunicable Disease

The Kilkenny post-primary school survey was carried out in the spring of 1987 on a stratified random sample of 445 post-primary school children in county Kilkenny. The study was designed as the basis for evaluation of the Kilkenny Health Project's school health education programme. The study examined knowledge, attitudes and behaviour relevant to non-communicable disease. The results showed that levels of adolescent alcohol and tobacco use were similar to those found in neighbouring countries. Smoking and drinking increased during adolescence and were more prevalent in males. Physical activity decreased throughout adolescence and a high intake of 'snack' foods was found. Health related knowledge levels were high but were not related to behaviour; however attitudes were found to be consistent with behaviour. These and other results are discussed. Literature relevant to school health education and the aetiology of non-communicable disease is described, with particular reference to Ireland. The evidence supporting health promotion intervention programmes against non-communicable disease is examined and WHO and Irish policies on health promotion outlined. The importance of health and disease prevention programmes commencing in youth is emphasised and the suitability and efficacy of school health education programmes are noted. A number of school health education programmes world-wide are described. The role of the community physician in relation to such programmes is discussed. Finally recommendations are made and areas for further research are made.This resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.

Characterisation of the prodrome to a first episode of psychotic mania: results of a retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the early phases of bipolar disorders (BPAD) and most of current knowledge derives from putative "high-risk" studies conducted in populations of bipolar off-spring; such information may therefore be relevant only to a sub-group of at-risk subjects. METHODS: Retrospective assessment of the phase preceding the emergence of mania and of premorbid characteristics of patients treated for a first episode of psychotic mania. The collected data was used mainly to generate hypotheses. RESULTS: Before onset of a first episode of psychotic mania, patients go through a phase of change from previous mental state where they present mood symptoms, sleep disruption and general functional decline. These clinical manifestations are however likely to have low specificity. However, their occurrence in patients presenting certain risk factors or markers of vulnerability that were identified at a relatively high prevalence in our sample, may be an indicator of impending first episode mania. LIMITATIONS: This is a retrospective study, in a small sample of patients presenting with psychotic mania. Criteria identified need therefore to be validated in larger prospective studies. CONCLUSIONS: Early identification of patients at risk to develop a first episode of psychotic mania is unlikely to be possible on the basis of symptoms alone. However, the occurrence of certain clinical characteristics in patients who have risk factors or markers of vulnerability to BPAD could be a sign of impending first episode mania.

Finding Public Health Knowledge and Information - A Guide for the South East

The leaflet contains a list of 'key' public health knowledge and information resources and contacts. Last updated August 2007.

Impact of previous virological treatment failures and adherence on the outcome of antiretroviral therapy in 2007.

BACKGROUND: Combination antiretroviral treatment (cART) has been very successful, especially among selected patients in clinical trials. The aim of this study was to describe outcomes of cART on the population level in a large national cohort. METHODS: Characteristics of participants of the Swiss HIV Cohort Study on stable cART at two semiannual visits in 2007 were analyzed with respect to era of treatment initiation, number of previous virologically failed regimens and self reported adherence. Starting ART in the mono/dual era before HIV-1 RNA assays became available was counted as one failed regimen. Logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for virological failure between the two consecutive visits. RESULTS: Of 4541 patients 31.2% and 68.8% had initiated therapy in the mono/dual and cART era, respectively, and been on treatment for a median of 11.7 vs. 5.7 years. At visit 1 in 2007, the mean number of previous failed regimens was 3.2 vs. 0.5 and the viral load was undetectable (<50 copies/ml) in 84.6% vs. 89.1% of the participants, respectively. Adjusted odds ratios of a detectable viral load at visit 2 for participants from the mono/dual era with a history of 2 and 3, 4, >4 previous failures compared to 1 were 0.9 (95% CI 0.4-1.7), 0.8 (0.4-1.6), 1.6 (0.8-3.2), 3.3 (1.7-6.6) respectively, and 2.3 (1.1-4.8) for >2 missed cART doses during the last month, compared to perfect adherence. From the cART era, odds ratios with a history of 1, 2 and >2 previous failures compared to none were 1.8 (95% CI 1.3-2.5), 2.8 (1.7-4.5) and 7.8 (4.5-13.5), respectively, and 2.8 (1.6-4.8) for >2 missed cART doses during the last month, compared to perfect adherence. CONCLUSIONS: A higher number of previous virologically failed regimens, and imperfect adherence to therapy were independent predictors of imminent virological failure.

MOLECULAR REORGANIZATION FOLLOWING SENSORY STIMULATION IN THE ADULT MOUSE BARREL CORTEX

Sensory information is an important factor in shaping neuronal circuits during development and adulthood. In the barrel cortex of adult rodents, cells from layer IV are able to adapt their functional state to an increased flow of sensory information from the mystacial whisker follicles. Previous studies in our group have shown that whisker stimulation induces the formation of inhibitory synapses in the corresponding barrel (Knott et al., 2002) and decreases neuronal responses toward the deflection of the stimulated whisker (Quairiaux et al., 2007). Together these observations have turned the barrel cortex into a model to study homeostatic plasticity. At the cellular level, neuronal activity triggers intracellular signaling cascades leading to a transcriptional response. To further characterize the molecular pathways involved in the synaptic changes after whisker stimulation in the adult mouse, a previous doctoral student in our group performed a microarray analysis on laser-dissected barrels in sections through layer IV. This study identified the regulation (up and down) of a series of genes in the stimulated barrels (thesis of Johnston-Wenger, 2010). We here focused on ten genes that presented the highest fold change according to the microarray analysis. Out of these genes, 7 are known as neuronal activity-dependent genes (Tnncl, Nptx2, Sorcs3, Ptgs2, Nr4a2, Npas4 and Adcyapl) whereas three have so far not been related to neuronal plasticity (Scn7a, Pcdhl5 and Cede3). The study aimed at confirming the results of the microarray analysis and localizing molecular modifications in the stimulated barrel column at the cellular level. In situ hybridization for Pcdhl5 after different periods of whisker stimulation (3, 6, 9, 15, 24 hrs) allowed us to confirm that the 1.25 fold change used for the microarray analysis is an appropriate threshold for considering a regulation significant after sensory-stimulation. Moreover, we confirmed with in situ hybridization a significant upregulation of the genes of interest in the stimulated barrels. In situ hybridization and immunohistochemistry allowed us to observe the distribution of the genes of interest and the corresponding protein products at the cellular level. Three observations were made: 1) alterations of the expression was restricted to the stimulated barrels for all genes tested; 2) within a barrel column not all cells responded to whisker stimulation with an altered gene expression; 3) in the stimulated barrels, two different patterns of mRNA and protein expression can be distinguished. We hypothesize that this segregation of the activity-induced gene expression reflects the segregation of the two principal thalamocortical pathways conveying the sensory information to the barrel cortex. Moreover, only neurons reaching the critical threshold will modify their gene expression program resulting in structural as well as physiological modifications that prevent the subsequent propagation of the excess of excitation to the postsynaptic targets. The activity-induced gene expression is therefore adapted in a cell-type-specific manner to induce a homeostatic response to the entire neuronal network involved in the integration of the sensory information. This to our knowledge the first study showing the distinct, but complementary contribution of the two thalamocortical pathways in experience-dependent plasticity in the adult mouse barrel cortex. -- L'information sensorielle nous permet de continuellement façonner nos circuits neuronaux autant durant le développement qu'à l'âge adulte. Chez le rongeur l'information sensorielle perçue par les vibrisses est intégrée au niveau du cortex somatosensoriel primaire (appelé en anglais « barrel cortex ») dont les cellules de la couche IV sont capables d'adapter leur état fonctionnel en réponse à une augmentation d'activité neuronale. Ce modèle expérimental a permis à notre groupe de recherche d'observer des changements rapides du circuit neuronal en fonction de l'activité sensorielle. En effet, la stimulation continue d'une vibrisse d'une souris adulte pendant 24 heures induit non seulement un remaniement synaptique (Knott et al., 2002), mais également des changements physiologiques au niveau des neurones du tonneau correspondant (Quairiaux et al., 2007). Ces observations nous permettent d'affirmer que le « barrel cortex » est un modèle approprié pour y étudier la plasticité synaptique. Au niveau cellulaire, l'activité neuronale déclenche des cascades de signalisation intracellulaire résultant en une réponse transcriptionnelle. Afin de caractériser les voies moléculaires impliquées dans la plasticité synaptique, une puce à ARN nous a permis de comparer l'expression de gènes entre un tonneau correspondant à une vibrisse stimulée et un tonneau d'une vibrisse non-stimulée (Nathalie). Cette analyse a révélé un certain nombre de gènes régulés de manière positive ou négative par l'augmentation de l'activité neuronale. Nous nous sommes concentrés sur 10 gènes dont l'expression est fortement régulée. L'expression de sept d'entre eux a déjà été démontrée comme dépendante de l'activité neuronale (Tnncl, Nptx2, Sorcs3, Ptgs2, Nr4a2, Npas4 otAdcyapl) alors que l'expression des trois autres (Scn7a, Pcdhl5 et Cedei) n'a pour le moment pas encore été liée à la plasticité neuronale. Le but de cette thèse est de confirmer les résultats de la puce à ARN et de déterminer dans quel type cellulaire ces gènes sont exprimés. L'hybridation in situ pour le gène Pcdhl5, après différentes périodes de stimulation des vibrisses (3, 6, 9, 15 et 24 heures), nous a permis de confirmer que le seuil de 1.25x utilisé dans l'analyse de la puce à ARN est approprié pour considérer qu'un gène est régulé de manière significative par la stimulation sensorielle. Nous avons également pu confirmer à l'aide de cette technique que la stimulation sensorielle augmente significativement l'expression de ces dix gènes. L'expression de ces gènes au niveau cellulaire a été observée à l'aide des techniques d'hybridation in situ et d'immunohistochimie. Trois observations ont été faites : 1) la régulation de ces gènes est restreinte aux tonneaux correspondants aux vibrisses stimulées ; 2) au niveau d'une colonne corticale correspondant aux vibrisses stimulées, seules certaines cellules présentent une altération de leur expression génique ; 3) au niveau des tonneaux stimulés, deux profils d'expression d'ARNm et de protéines sont observés. Notre hypothèse est que cette distribution pourrait correspondre à la terminaison ségrégée des deux voies thalamocortical qui amènent l'information sensorielle dans le cortex cérébral. De plus, seul les neurones atteignant le seuil critique d'activation modifient leur expression génique en réponse à la stimulation sensorielle. Ces changements d'expression géniques vont permettre à la cellule de modifier ses propriétés structurales et physiologiques de manière a prevenir la propagation d'un excès d'activité neuronale au niveau de ses cibles postsynaptics. L'activité neuronale agit donc spécifiquement sur certains types cellulaires de maniere a induire une réponse homéostatique au niveau du réseau neuronal impliqué dans l'integration de l'information sensorielle. Nos travaux démontrent pour une première fois que les deux voies sensorielles contribuent d'une manière distincte et complémentaire à la plasticité corticale induite par un changement de l'activité sensorielle chez la souris adulte.

Global regulation of the knowledge-based economy: The rise of standards in educational services

This article examines the extent and limits of non-state forms of authority in international relations. It analyses how the information and communication technology (ICT) infrastructure for the tradability of services in a global knowledge-based economy relies on informal regulatory practices for adjustment of ICT-related skills. Companies and associations provide training and certification programmes as part of a growing market for educational services setting their own standards. The existing literature on non-conventional forms of authority in the global political economy has emphasised that the consent of actors subject to informal rules and explicit or implicit state recognition remains crucial for the effectiveness of those new forms of power. However, analyses based on a limited sample of actors tend toward a narrow understanding of the issues and fail to fully explore the differentiated space in which non-state authority is emerging. This paper examines the form of authority underpinning the global knowledge-based economy within the broader perspective of the issues likely to be standardised by technical ICT specification, the wide range of actors involved, and the highly differentiated space where standards become authoritative. The empirical findings highlight the role of different private actors in establishing international educational norms in this field. They also pinpoint the limits of profit-oriented standard-settings, notably with regard to generic norms.

Análisis, diseño e implementación de una tienda virtual con tecnología J2EE

En aquest TFC, un estudiant amb coneixements de Java, però sense experiència prèvia en aplicacions distribuïdes, dissenya i implementa un exemple típic d'una aplicació distribuïda que consisteix en una aplicació de comerç electrònic utilitzant la tecnologia J2EE i amb el seguiment de patrons de disseny.

The impact of two education methods on knowledge of schistosomiasis transmission and prevention among schoolchildren in a rural community in northern Minas Gerais, Brazil

The objective of this study was to analyse the effect of using two health education approaches on knowledge of transmission and prevention of schistosomiasis of school children living in a rural endemic area in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. The 87 children participating in the study were divided into three groups based on gender, age and presence or absence of Schistosoma mansoni infection. In the first group the social representation model and illness experience was used. In the second group, we used the cognitive model based on the transmission of information. The third group, the control group, did not receive any information related to schistosomiasis. Ten meetings were held with all three groups that received a pre-test prior to the beginning of the educational intervention and a post-test after the completion of the program. The results showed that knowledge levels in Group 1 increased significantly during the program in regard to transmission (p = 0.038) and prevention (p = 0.001) of schistosomiasis. Groups 2 and 3 did not show significant increase in knowledge between the two tests. These results indicate that health education models need to consider social representation and illness experience besides scientific knowledge in order to increase knowledge of schistosomiasis transmission and prevention.

Implantación de un proyecto de Knowledge Center con una herramienta comercial (Synera)

En una empresa les dades es poden transformar en coneixement; aquest projecte explica com es poden convertir les dades, mitjançant una eina comercial, en coneixement que els serveixi per a prendre decisions respecte de la seva política comercial, de màrqueting i de distribució del producte. A més, també demostra que la implementació d'aquest projecte en l'empresa repercutirà positivament en el seu futur.

The ghost of social environments past: dominance relationships include current interactions and experience carried over from previous groups.

Dominance hierarchies pervade animal societies. Within a static social environment, in which group size and composition are unchanged, an individual's hierarchy rank results from intrinsic (e.g. body size) and extrinsic (e.g. previous experiences) factors. Little is known, however, about how dominance relationships are formed and maintained when group size and composition are dynamic. Using a fusion-fission protocol, we fused groups of previously isolated shore crabs (Carcinus maenas) into larger groups, and then restored groups to their original size and composition. Pre-fusion hierarchies formed independently of individuals' sizes, and were maintained within a static group via winner/loser effects. Post-fusion hierarchies differed from pre-fusion ones; losing fights during fusion led to a decline in an individual's rank between pre- and post-fusion conditions, while spending time being aggressive during fusion led to an improvement in rank. In post-fusion tanks, larger individuals achieved better ranks than smaller individuals. In conclusion, dominance hierarchies in crabs represent a complex combination of intrinsic and extrinsic factors, in which experiences from previous groups can carry over to affect current competitive interactions.