Response to price and production risk: The case of Australian wheat

A model of Australian wheat grower supply response was specified under the constraints of price and yield uncertainty, risk aversion, partial adjustment, and quadratic costs. The model was solved to obtain area planted. The results of estimation indicate that risk arising from prices and climate have had a significant influence on producer decision making. The coefficient of relative risk aversion and short-run and long-run elasticities of supply with respect to price were calculated. Wheat growers' risk premium, expected at the start of the season for exposed price and yield risk, was 2.8 percent of revenue or 10.4 percent of profit as measured by producer surplus. (C) 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Risk management for scuba diving operators on Australia's Great Barrier Reef

Australia's Great Barrier Reef is one of the world's most popular scuba diving destinations. Unfortunately, a series of recent diving injuries and deaths has tarnished the region's safety record. In particular, media attention surrounding the disappearance of American divers Thomas and Eileen Lonergan has focused attention on dive operators' legal responsibilities and the consequences of failing to discharge their duty of care to customers. This paper briefly examines the relevant Australian law for recreational diving operations, and reviews risk management strategies that may reduce or prevent the occurrence of future problems. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Australian Burden of Disease Study: measuring the loss of health from diseases, injuries and risk factors

This is an overview of the first burden of disease and injury studies carried out in Australia. Methods developed for the World Bank and World Health Organization Global Burden of Disease Study were adapted and applied to Australian population health data. Depression was found to be the top-ranking cause of non-fatal disease burden in Australia, causing 8% of the total years lost due to disability in 1996. Mental disorders overall were responsible for nearly 30% of the non-fatal disease burden. The leading causes of total disease burden (disability-adjusted life years [DALYs]) were ischaemic heart disease and stroke, together causing nearly 18% of the total disease burden. Depression was the fourth leading cause of disease burden, accounting for 3.7% of the total burden. Of the 10 major risk factors to which the disease burden can be attributed, tobacco smoking causes an estimated 10% of the total disease burden in Australia, followed by physical inactivity (7%).

Changes in intra-abdominal pressure during postural and respiratory activation of the human diaphragm

In humans, when the stability of the trunk is challenged in a controlled manner by repetitive movement of a limb, activity of the diaphragm becomes tonic but is also modulated at the frequency of limb movement. In addition, the tonic activity is modulated by respiration. This study investigated the mechanical output of these components of diaphragm activity. Recordings were made of costal diaphragm, abdominal, and erector spinae muscle electromyographic activity; intra-abdominal, intrathoracic, and transdiaphragmatic pressures; and motion of the rib cage, abdomen, and arm. During limb movement the diaphragm and transversus abdominis were tonically active with added phasic modulation at the frequencies of both respiration and limb movement. Activity of the other trunk muscles was not modulated by respiration. Intra-abdominal pressure was increased during the period of limb movement in proportion to the reactive forces from the movement. These results show that coactivation of the diaphragm and abdominal muscles causes a sustained increase in intra-abdominal pressure, whereas inspiration and expiration are controlled by opposing activity of the diaphragm and abdominal muscles to vary the shape of the pressurized abdominal cavity.

The interaction between the equity premium and the risk-free rate

The equity premium arises from the interaction between the atemporal risk premium for equity, the risk-free rate of intertemporal substitution and the impact of risk on the precautionary motive for saving. Depending on parameter values, the equity premium may either be increased or reduced by the presence of undiversifiable background risk. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved.

Absolute risk of breast cancer for Australian women with a family history

Background: The purpose of the present paper was to estimate the absolute risk of breast cancer over the remainder of a lifetime in Australian women with different categories of family history. Methods: Age-specific breast cancer incidence rates were adjusted for screening effects, and rates in those with no family history were estimated using the attributable fraction (AF). Relative risks from a published meta-analysis were applied to obtain incidence rates for different categories of family history, and age-specific incidence was converted to cumulative risk of breast cancer. The risk estimates were based upon Australian population statistics and published relative risks. Breast cancer incidence was from New South Wales women for 1996. The AF was calculated using prevalence of a family history of breast cancer from data on Queensland women. The cumulative absolute risk of breast cancer was calculated from decade and mid-decade ages to age 79 years, not adjusted for competing causes of death. Results: Lifetime risk is approximately 8.6% (1 in 12) for the general population and 7.8% (1 in 13) for those without a family history. Women with one relative affected have lifetime risks of 1 in 6-8 and those with two relatives affected have lifetime risks of 1 in 4-6. The cumulative residual lifetime risk decreases with advancing age; by age 60 years all groups with only one relative affected have well above a 90% probability of not developing breast cancer to age 79 years. Conclusions: These Australian risk statistics are useful for public information and in the clinical setting. Risks given here apply to women with average breast cancer risk from other risk factors.

Quantification of free mycophenolic acid by high-performance liquid chromatography-atmospheric pressure chemical ionisation tandem mass spectrometry

To facilitate the investigation of free mycophenolic acid concentrations we developed a high-performance liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry method using indomethacin as an internal standard. Free drug was isolated from plasma samples (500 mul) using ultrafiltration, The analytes were extracted from the ultrafiltrate (200 mul) using C-18 solid-phase extraction. Detection was by selected reactant monitoring of mycophenolic acid (m/z 318.9-->190.9) and the internal standard (m/z 356.0-->297.1) with an atmospheric pressure chemical ionisation interface. The total chromatographic analysis time was 12 min. The method was found to be linear over the range investigated, 2.5-200 mug/l (r>0.990, n=6). The relative recovery of the method for the control samples studied (7.5, 40.0 and 150 mug/l) ranged from 95 to 104%. The imprecision of the method, expressed in terms of intra- and inter-day coefficients of variation, was

A model for predicting the future incidence of coronary heart disease within percentiles of coronary heart disease risk

Background We present a method (The CHD Prevention Model) for modelling the incidence of fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease (CHD) within various CHD risk percentiles of an adult population. The model provides a relatively simple tool for lifetime risk prediction for subgroups within a population. It allows an estimation of the absolute primary CHD risk in different populations and will help identify subgroups of the adult population where primary CHD prevention is most appropriate and cost-effective. Methods The CHD risk distribution within the Australian population was modelled, based on the prevalence of CHD risk, individual estimates of integrated CHD risk, and current CHD mortality rates. Predicted incidence of first fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction within CHD risk strata of the Australian population was determined. Results Approximately 25% of CHD deaths were predicted to occur amongst those in the top 10 percentiles of integrated CHD risk, regardless of age group or gender. It was found that while all causes survival did not differ markedly between percentiles of CHD risk before the ages of around 50-60, event-free survival began visibly to differ about 5 years earlier. Conclusions The CHD Prevention Model provides a means of predicting future CHD incidence amongst various strata of integrated CHD risk within an adult population. It has significant application both in individual risk counselling and in the identification of subgroups of the population where drug therapy to reduce CHD risk is most cost-effective. J Cardiovasc Risk 8:31-37 (C) 2001 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Hormonal factors and risk of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage - An international population-based, case-control study

Background and Purpose-Subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) is more common in women than in men, but the role of hormonal factors in its etiology remains uncertain. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between hormonal factors and risk of SAH in women. Methods-This was a prospective, multicenter, population-based, case-control study performed in 4 major urban centers in Australia and New Zealand. Two hundred sixty-eight female cases of first-ever aneurysmal SAH occurred during 1995-1998. Controls were 286 frequency-matched women from the general population of each center. Outcome measures included risk of SAH associated with use of oral contraceptive pills (OCPs), hormone replacement therapy (HRT), and various endogenous hormonal factors including menstrual patterns, parity, age at birth of first child, and breast-feeding practices. Results-Cases and controls did not differ with regard to menstrual and reproductive history except in age at bir th of first child, where older age was associated with reduced risk of SAH (odds ratio [OR], 0.63; 95% CI, 0.43, 0.91). Relative to never use of HRT, the adjusted OR for over use of HRT was 0.64 (95% CI, 0.41, 0.98), which did not alter significantly after further adjustment for possible confounding factors. Borderline evidence of an inverse association was detected for past use of HRT (adjusted OR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.30, 1.13) and current use of HRT (adjusted OR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.40, 1.13), but there was no evidence of an association for use of OCPs (adjusted OR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.58, 1.60). Conclusions-The risks of SAH are lower in women whose first pregnancy is at an older age and women who have ever used HRT but not OCPs. The findings suggest an independent etiologic role for hormonal factors in the pathogenesis of aneurysmal SAH and provide support for a protective role fur HRT on risk of SAH in postmenopausal women.

In vivo measurement of the effect of intra-abdominal pressure on the human spine

In humans, intra-abdominal pressure (IAP) is elevated during many everyday activities. This experiment aimed to investigate the extent to which increased IAP-without concurrent activity of the abdominal or back extensor muscles-produces an extensor torque. With subjects positioned in side lying on a swivel table with its axis at L3, moments about this vertebral level were measured when IAP was transiently increased by electrical stimulation of the diaphragm via the phrenic nerve. There was no electromyographic activity in abdominal and back extensor muscles. When IAP was increased artificially to similar to 15% of the maximum IAP amplitude that could be generated voluntarily with the trunk positioned in flexion, a trunk extensor moment (similar to6 Nm) was recorded. The size of the effect was proportional to the increase in pressure. The extensor moment was consistent with that predicted from a model based on measurements of abdominal cross-sectional area and IAP moment arm. When IAP was momentarily increased while the trunk was flexed passively at a constant velocity, the external torque required to maintain the velocity was increased. These results provide the first in vivo data of the amplitude of extensor moment that is produced by increased IAP. Although the net effect of this extensor torque in functional tasks would be dependent on the muscles used to increase the IAP and their associated flexion torque, the data do provide evidence that IAP contributes, at least in part, to spinal stability. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.