¿La edad de la política? Balanche Historiográfico de los estudios sobre comunicación e información política en la sociedad ibérica moderna

Los estudios sobre política y su impacto y circulación entre la sociedad moderna, han solido limitar su expansión a un número reducido de personas del entorno más próximo a los grandes actores cortesanos frente a la tradicional “indiferencia” del común. Sin embargo, gracias a la renovación de la historiografía de lo político y a su interés por áreas culturales y sociales ajenas a su tradicional consideración, en las últimas décadas se ha descubierto un interesante terreno de experiencias políticas que nos puede servir como atalaya para conocer la difusión de la información sobre los hechos políticos también entre “gente corriente”. A nuestro juicio, es un momento adecuado para evaluar el desarrollo de un fenómeno historiográfico carente de cierta sistematicidad, razón por la que planteamos este balance crítico y analítico sobre la sociedad ibérica del Antiguo Régimen.

Erstellung einer Blitzschutzrichtlinie für die Produktpalette der FAM im Auftrag der "Gesellschaft für Prozeßautomation mbH" (GPA)"

On the basis of the global use of the FAM installations and systems, their location, type and height, a lightning protection system is required, which protects humans and machines from danger of a lightning. At the beginning the development, the threat and the potential for destruction of lightning are described. Besides the resulting solid normative calculation models and tables are presented. Then, the product portfolio of the FAM is characterized. From this demonstration models are selected; on the one hand a model for the totality of all portable devices and the other hand a model which defines the power plants. Subsequently, the risk management and a strengths and weaknesses analysis are performed. After that, with graphical and mathematical models, these weaknesses as well as the functional equipotential bonding and grounding system and its dimensioning are investigated and solutions are demonstrated. The following is a coordination of lightning protection standard with other directives and standards in order to classify the resulting internal lightning protection and protective measures against electromagnetic pulse and to generate a uniform protection and application platform. Furthermore, problems of the economy of protective circuit is shown and a solution is given. Finally, the indicated possible solutions are replaced by definitions. The main classification and structure of lightning protection directive are shown and exemplarily applied.

The optimal behaviour of firms facing stochastic costs

This paper aims at assessing the optimal behavior of a firm facing stochastic costs of production. In an imperfectly competitive setting, we evaluate to what extent a firm may decide to locate part of its production in other markets different from which it is actually settled. This decision is taken in a stochastic environment. Portfolio theory is used to derive the optimal solution for the intertemporal profit maximization problem. In such a framework, splitting production between different locations may be optimal when a firm is able to charge different prices in the different local markets.

Endogenous capacity utilization and the asymmetric effects of monetary policy

This paper investigates the role of variable capacity utilization as a source of asymmetries in the relationship between monetary policy and economic activity within a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework. The source of the asymmetry is directly linked to the bottlenecks and stock-outs that emerge from the existence of capacity constraints in the real side of the economy. Money has real effects due to the presence of rigidities in households' portfolio decisions in the form of a Luces-Fuerst 'limited participation' constraint. The model features variable capacity utilization rates across firms due to demand uncertainty. A monopolistic competitive structure provides additional effects through optimal mark-up changes. The overall message of this paper for monetary policy is that the same actions may have different effects depending on the capacity utilization rate of the economy.

Material Flow Accounting in Chile, Ecuador, Mexico and Peru (1980-2000)

In this paper we compare the resource flows of Chile, Ecuador, Mexico and Peru between 1980 and 2000. In this time span, the domestic extraction of materials increased in the four countries, mainly due to the mining sector in Chile and Peru, biomass and oil in Ecuador and construction minerals in Mexico. Imports and exports increased too, due to the increasing integration in the international markets, prompted by the liberalization policies undertaken by the four countries between the late 1970s and the late 1990s. The four countries had a negative physical trade balance for most of the period analyzed, meaning that their exports exceeded their imports in terms of weight. However, the increase of imports reduced the physical deficit in Chile, Mexico and Peru. Ecuador’s physical deficit was the highest and did not decrease in the period analyzed. Also, a diversification of exports away from bulk commodities could be observed in Chile and Mexico, and to a lesser extent in Peru, whereas in Ecuador the export sector remained mainly based on oil and biomass. More research is needed to explore the environmental effects of this phenomenon. Also, the indirect flows associated to the direct physical flows deserve to be subject to further analysis.

Nuclear Weapons as Symbols. The Role of Norms in Nuclear Policy Making

Throughout history, nuclear weapons have been considered to be the ultimate weapons. This understanding largely detached them from the portfolio of conventional military means and assigned them a symbolic meaning that influenced the identity and norms creation of nations. In most countries today, the development of nuclear weapons is considered morally prohibitive, incompatible with a country’s identity and international outlook. In some states, however, these negative norms are overridden by a positive set of norms, causing nuclear weapons to become either symbols of invulnerability to perceived threats or the regalia of major power status. Main purpose of this paper is to explore on the conditions that cause most states to develop a moral aversion to nuclear weapons, yet effectively lead to their glorification in others. Many studies on the normative understanding of nuclear weapons consider the existence of a negative normative predisposition, often referred to as ‘nuclear taboo’, as a major factor in preventing their acquisition and use. Other studies acknowledge the existence of a nuclear taboo inhibiting the use of nuclear weapons, but point to the existence of the opposing effect of norms, frequently referred to as the ‘nuclear myth’, when it comes to the acquisition of nuclear weapons. This myth emerges when certain symbolic meanings are attached to nuclear weapons, such as a state’s identity, self-image, and its desired position in the international system. With 180 odd countries in the world abstaining from the acquisition of nuclear weapons and 8 countries in possession of them (with two further countries assumed to have pursued their acquisition), one might consider the dominance of the nuclear taboo over the nuclear myth to be the rule. The core question is thus why and how this relationship reversed in the case of defectors.

Creación de alternativas productivas al modelo de la soja RR a partir de los criterios definidos por la población de Basavilbaso, Argentina

El consumo desmesurado de energía por parte de los países del Norte lleva a la creación de una deuda ecológica en los países del Sur. Ésta se debe, entre otros factores, al modelo agrario introducido con la “Nueva Revolución Verde”. En Argentina los monocultivos de sojaRR están potenciando la pérdida de la soberanía alimentaria en todo el país. Al mismo tiempo, las políticas energéticas europeas van a provocar una subida en la demanda de materias primas para la producción de biocombustible, lo que llevará a un aumento de la superficie de sojaRR en Argentina. El objetivo de este estudio es la creación de alternativas productivas mediante la implicación de la población de un municipio argentino. A través de la metodología de análisis social “CLIP” se han identificado los diferentes actores implicados en el modelo agrario que a lo largo del trabajo plantean propuestas de cambio para el sector agropecuario de su municipio. El resultado ha sido el planteamiento de cuatro grandes alternativas: la agricultura orgánica, la rotación de actividades, las producciones avícolas y apícolas y la diversificación de cultivos energéticos. Viendo que la tipología de consumo del Norte afecta directamente en la vida de los países del Sur, en todas las alternativas propuestas en este caso de estudio, se acaba por apostar por la creación de redes productivas y comerciales locales que potencien los beneficios en los países productores sin abandonar las posibilidades del mercado internacional.

In Search of a theory of debt management

A growing literature integrates theories of debt management into models of optimal fiscal policy. One promising theory argues that the composition of government debt should be chosen so that fluctuations in the market value of debt offset changes in expected future deficits. This complete market approach to debt management is valid even when the government only issues non-contingent bonds. A number of authors conclude from this approach that governments should issue long term debt and invest in short term assets. We argue that the conclusions of this approach are too fragile to serve as a basis for policy recommendations. This is because bonds at different maturities have highly correlated returns, causing the determination of the optimal portfolio to be ill-conditioned. To make this point concrete we examine the implications of this approach to debt management in various models, both analytically and using numerical methods calibrated to the US economy. We find the complete market approach recommends asset positions which are huge multiples of GDP. Introducing persistent shocks or capital accumulation only worsens this problem. Increasing the volatility of interest rates through habits partly reduces the size of these simulations we find no presumption that governments should issue long term debt ? policy recommendations can be easily reversed through small perturbations in the specification of shocks or small variations in the maturity of bonds issued. We further extend the literature by removing the assumption that governments every period costlessly repurchase all outstanding debt. This exacerbates the size of the required positions, worsens their volatility and in some cases produces instability in debt holdings. We conclude that it is very difficult to insulate fiscal policy from shocks by using the complete markets approach to debt management. Given the limited variability of the yield curve using maturities is a poor way to substitute for state contingent debt. The result is the positions recommended by this approach conflict with a number of features that we believe are important in making bond markets incomplete e.g allowing for transaction costs, liquidity effects, etc.. Until these features are all fully incorporated we remain in search of a theory of debt management capable of providing robust policy insights.

Three essays on the psychology of investment and financial markets

Préface My thesis consists of three essays where I consider equilibrium asset prices and investment strategies when the market is likely to experience crashes and possibly sharp windfalls. Although each part is written as an independent and self contained article, the papers share a common behavioral approach in representing investors preferences regarding to extremal returns. Investors utility is defined over their relative performance rather than over their final wealth position, a method first proposed by Markowitz (1952b) and by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), that I extend to incorporate preferences over extremal outcomes. With the failure of the traditional expected utility models in reproducing the observed stylized features of financial markets, the Prospect theory of Kahneman and Tversky (1979) offered the first significant alternative to the expected utility paradigm by considering that people focus on gains and losses rather than on final positions. Under this setting, Barberis, Huang, and Santos (2000) and McQueen and Vorkink (2004) were able to build a representative agent optimization model which solution reproduced some of the observed risk premium and excess volatility. The research in behavioral finance is relatively new and its potential still to explore. The three essays composing my thesis propose to use and extend this setting to study investors behavior and investment strategies in a market where crashes and sharp windfalls are likely to occur. In the first paper, the preferences of a representative agent, relative to time varying positive and negative extremal thresholds are modelled and estimated. A new utility function that conciliates between expected utility maximization and tail-related performance measures is proposed. The model estimation shows that the representative agent preferences reveals a significant level of crash aversion and lottery-pursuit. Assuming a single risky asset economy the proposed specification is able to reproduce some of the distributional features exhibited by financial return series. The second part proposes and illustrates a preference-based asset allocation model taking into account investors crash aversion. Using the skewed t distribution, optimal allocations are characterized as a resulting tradeoff between the distribution four moments. The specification highlights the preference for odd moments and the aversion for even moments. Qualitatively, optimal portfolios are analyzed in terms of firm characteristics and in a setting that reflects real-time asset allocation, a systematic over-performance is obtained compared to the aggregate stock market. Finally, in my third article, dynamic option-based investment strategies are derived and illustrated for investors presenting downside loss aversion. The problem is solved in closed form when the stock market exhibits stochastic volatility and jumps. The specification of downside loss averse utility functions allows corresponding terminal wealth profiles to be expressed as options on the stochastic discount factor contingent on the loss aversion level. Therefore dynamic strategies reduce to the replicating portfolio using exchange traded and well selected options, and the risky stock.

Anàlisi i diagnosi ambiental dels refugis del PNAP

Els refugis de muntanya es troben situats en zones d’interès natural, sovint protegides, com és el cas dels deu refugis del Parc Natural de l’Alt Pirineu. En els darrers anys s’ha observat una diversificació en l’ús dels refugis de muntanya, originalment construïts per donar aixopluc als excursionistes, degut a l’augment del turisme i la popularització dels esports de neu i d’aventura. Els refugis estudiats es poden agrupar en tres tipologies diferents: refugis guardats, refugis alberg i refugis associats a pistes d’esquí, cadascuna de les quals presenta una realitat i unes problemàtiques diferents. Mitjançant una metodologia pròpia, es pretén fer una anàlisi i una diagnosi ambiental de cada cas d’estudi i de les diferents tipologies a partir dels vectors que poden generar un major impacte en l’entorn immediat dels refugis: aspectes socioeconòmics, arquitectura, paisatge i impacte visual, energia elèctrica i tèrmica, aigua potable i residual i residus sòlids. La diagnosi permet identificar els aspectes de cada refugi i tipologia que requereixen propostes de millora. Finalment es fa una proposta d’ecoetiqueta de serveis per a refugis guardats basada en el Distintiu de Garantia de Qualitat Ambiental de la Generalitat de Catalunya, ja aplicat amb èxit a altres establiments de serveis.

Productive efficiency and regulatory reform: The case of vehicle inspection services

Measuring productive efficiency provides information on the likely effects of regulatory reform. We present a Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) of a sample of 38 vehicle inspection units under a concession regime, between the years 2000 and 2004. The differences in efficiency scores show the potential technical efficiency benefit of introducing some form of incentive regulation or of progressing towards liberalization. We also compute scale efficiency scores, showing that only units in territories with very low population density operate at a sub-optimal scale. Among those that operate at an optimal scale, there are significant differences in size; the largest ones operate in territories with the highest population density. This suggests that the introduction of new units in the most densely populated territories (a likely effect of some form of liberalization) would not be detrimental in terms of scale efficiency. We also find that inspection units belonging to a large, diversified firm show higher technical efficiency, reflecting economies of scale or scope at the firm level. Finally, we show that between 2002 and 2004, a period of high regulatory uncertainty in the sample’s region, technical change was almost zero. Regulatory reform should take due account of scale and diversification effects, while at the same time avoiding regulatory uncertainty.

Progress Towards to Equity Market Integration in Eastern Europe

The advent of the European Union has decreased the diversification benefits available from country based equity market indices in the region. This paper measures the increase in stock integration between the three largest new EU members (Hungary, the Czech Republic and Poland who joined in May 2004) and the Euro-zone. A potentially gradual transition in correlations is accommodated in a single VAR model by embedding smooth transition conditional correlation models with fat tails, spillovers, volatility clustering, and asymmetric volatility effects. At the country market index level all three Eastern European markets show a considerable increase in correlations in 2006. At the industry level the dates and transition periods for the correlations differ, and the correlations are lower although also increasing. The results show that sectoral indices in Eastern European markets may provide larger diversification opportunities than the aggregate market. JEL classifications: C32; C51; F36; G15 Keywords: Multivariate GARCH; Smooth Transition Conditional Correlation; Stock Return Comovement; Sectoral correlations; New EU Members

Discordances between phylogenetic and morphological patterns in alpine leaf beetles attest to an intricate biogeographic history of lineages in postglacial Europe.

Pleistocene glacial and interglacial periods have moulded the evolutionary history of European cold-adapted organisms. The role of the different mountain massifs has, however, not been accurately investigated in the case of high-altitude insect species. Here, we focus on three closely related species of non-flying leaf beetles of the genus Oreina (Coleoptera, Chrysomelidae), which are often found in sympatry within the mountain ranges of Europe. After showing that the species concept as currently applied does not match barcoding results, we show, based on more than 700 sequences from one nuclear and three mitochondrial genes, the role of biogeography in shaping the phylogenetic hypothesis. Dating the phylogeny using an insect molecular clock, we show that the earliest lineages diverged more than 1 Mya and that the main shift in diversification rate occurred between 0.36 and 0.18 Mya. By using a probabilistic approach on the parsimony-based dispersal/vicariance framework (MP-DIVA) as well as a direct likelihood method of state change optimization, we show that the Alps acted as a cross-roads with multiple events of dispersal to and reinvasion from neighbouring mountains. However, the relative importance of vicariance vs. dispersal events on the process of rapid diversification remains difficult to evaluate because of a bias towards overestimation of vicariance in the DIVA algorithm. Parallels are drawn with recent studies of cold-adapted species, although our study reveals novel patterns in diversity and genetic links between European mountains, and highlights the importance of neglected regions, such as the Jura and the Balkanic range.

The Timing of Asset Trade and Optimal Policy in Dynamic Open Economies

Using a standard open economy DSGE model, it is shown that the timing of asset trade relative to policy decisions has a potentially important impact on the welfare evaluation of monetary policy at the individual country level. If asset trade in the initial period takes place before the announcement of policy, a national policymaker can choose a policy rule which reduces the work effort of households in the policymaker’s country in the knowledge that consumption is fully insured by optimally chosen international portfolio positions. But if asset trade takes place after the policy announcement, this insurance is absent and households in the policymaker’s country bear the full consumption consequences of the chosen policy rule. The welfare incentives faced by national policymakers are very different between the two cases. Numerical examples confirm that asset market timing has a significant impact on the optimal policy rule.

Microstructure Order Flow: Statistical and Economic Evaluation of Nonlinear Forecasts

In this paper we propose a novel empirical extension of the standard market microstructure order flow model. The main idea is that heterogeneity of beliefs in the foreign exchange market can cause model instability and such instability has not been fully accounted for in the existing empirical literature. We investigate this issue using two di¤erent data sets and focusing on out- of-sample forecasts. Forecasting power is measured using standard statistical tests and, additionally, using an alternative approach based on measuring the economic value of forecasts after building a portfolio of assets. We nd there is a substantial economic value on conditioning on the proposed models.