Quantitative Assessment of Handwriting Evidence: The Value of the Shape of the Letter "A"

To provide a quantitative support to the handwriting evidence evaluation, a new method was developed through the computation of a likelihood ratio based on a Bayesian approach. In the present paper, the methodology is briefly described and applied to data collected within a simulated case of a threatening letter. Fourier descriptors are used to characterise the shape of loops of handwritten characters "a" of the true writer of the threatening letter, and: 1) with reference characters "a" of the true writer of the threatening letter, and then 2) with characters "a" of a writer who did not write the threatening letter. The findings support that the probabilistic methodology correctly supports either the hypothesis of authorship or the alternative hypothesis. Further developments will enable the handwriting examiner to use this methodology as a helpful assistance to assess the strength of evidence in handwriting casework.

Evaluación de riesgo ecológico

Se desarrolló una Evaluación de Riesgo Ecológico (ERE) mediante un taller de trabajo con 29 representantes de todos los usuarios de la pesquería de anchoveta (stock norte-centro), en sus tres dimensiones, “bienestar ecológico”, “bienestar humano” y “capacidad de logro”. Se dio prioridad a los temas conflictivos de la pesquería clasificando su riesgo tomando en cuenta el nivel de impacto que tendría al ocurrir y la probabilidad de que ocurra. Se identificó 99 problemas de riesgo de los cuales más de dos tercios fueron clasificados por consenso como alto o extremo. Casi la mitad de los riesgos altos y extremos estuvieron en la dimensión “capacidad de logro”

Inference with the lognormal distribution

Several estimators of the expectation, median and mode of the lognormal distribution are derived. They aim to be approximately unbiased, efficient, or have a minimax property in the class of estimators we introduce. The small-sample properties of these estimators are assessed by simulations and, when possible, analytically. Some of these estimators of the expectation are far more efficient than the maximum likelihood or the minimum-variance unbiased estimator, even for substantial samplesizes.

Estimating learning models from experimental data

We study the statistical properties of three estimation methods for a model of learning that is often fitted to experimental data: quadratic deviation measures without unobserved heterogeneity, and maximum likelihood withand without unobserved heterogeneity. After discussing identification issues, we show that the estimators are consistent and provide their asymptotic distribution. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we show that ignoring unobserved heterogeneity can lead to seriously biased estimations in samples which have the typical length of actual experiments. Better small sample properties areobtained if unobserved heterogeneity is introduced. That is, rather than estimating the parameters for each individual, the individual parameters are considered random variables, and the distribution of those random variables is estimated.

Modelling state dependence and feedback effects between poverty, employment and parental home emancipation among European youth

Youth is one of the phases in the life-cycle when some of the most decisivelife transitions take place. Entering the labour market or leaving parentalhome are events with important consequences for the economic well-beingof young adults. In this paper, the interrelationship between employment,residential emancipation and poverty dynamics is studied for eight Europeancountries by means of an econometric model with feedback effects. Resultsshow that youth poverty genuine state dependence is positive and highly significant.Evidence proves there is a strong causal effect between poverty andleaving home in Scandinavian countries, however, time in economic hardshipdoes not last long. In Southern Europe, instead, youth tend to leave theirparental home much later in order to avoid falling into a poverty state that ismore persistent. Past poverty has negative consequences on the likelihood ofemployment.

Comparative phylogeography of mutualists and the effect of the host on the genetic structure of its partners.

Whether or not species participating in specialized and obligate interactions display similar and simultaneous demographic variations at the intraspecific level remains an open question in phylogeography. In the present study, we used the mutualistic nursery pollination occurring between the European globeflower Trollius europaeus and its specialized pollinators in the genus Chiastocheta as a case study. Explicitly, we investigated if the phylogeographies of the pollinating flies are significantly different from the expectation under a scenario of plant-insect congruence. Based on a large-scale sampling, we first used mitochondrial data to infer the phylogeographical histories of each fly species. Then, we defined phylogeographical scenarios of congruence with the plant history, and used maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches to test for plant-insect phylogeographical congruence for the three Chiastocheta species. We show that the phylogeographical histories of the three fly species differ. Only Chiastocheta lophota and Chiastocheta dentifera display strong spatial genetic structures, which do not appear to be statistically different from those expected under scenarios of phylogeographical congruence with the plant. The results of the present study indicate that the fly species responded in independent and different ways to shared evolutionary forces, displaying varying levels of congruence with the plant genetic structure

Model selection and error estimation

We study model selection strategies based on penalized empirical loss minimization. We point out a tight relationship between error estimation and data-based complexity penalization: any good error estimate may be converted into a data-based penalty function and the performance of the estimate is governed by the quality of the error estimate. We consider several penalty functions, involving error estimates on independent test data, empirical {\sc vc} dimension, empirical {\sc vc} entropy, andmargin-based quantities. We also consider the maximal difference between the error on the first half of the training data and the second half, and the expected maximal discrepancy, a closely related capacity estimate that can be calculated by Monte Carlo integration. Maximal discrepancy penalty functions are appealing for pattern classification problems, since their computation is equivalent to empirical risk minimization over the training data with some labels flipped.

History of diabetes and risk of head and neck cancer: a pooled analysis from the international head and neck cancer epidemiology consortium.

BACKGROUND: A history of diabetes is associated with an increased risk of several types of cancers. Whether diabetes is a risk factor for head and neck cancer (HNC) has received little attention. METHODS: We pooled data from 12 case-control studies including 6,448 cases and 13,747 controls, and estimated odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the associations between diabetes and HNC, adjusted for age, education level, sex, race/ethnicity, study center, cigarette smoking, alcohol use and body mass index (BMI). RESULTS: We observed a weak association between diabetes and the incidence of HNC overall (OR, 1.09; 95% CI, 0.95-1.24). However, we observed a modest association among never smokers (OR, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.22-2.07), and no association among ever smokers (OR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.83-1.11); likelihood ratio test for interaction p=0.001. CONCLUSIONS: A history of diabetes was weakly associated with HNC overall, but we observed evidence of effect modification by smoking status, with a positive association among those who never smoked cigarettes. Impact: This study suggests that glucose metabolism abnormalities may be a HNC risk factor in subgroups of the population. Prospective studies incorporating biomarkers are needed to improve our understanding of the relationship between diabetes and HNC risk, possibly providing new strategies in the prevention of HNC.

Fitness and the level of homozygosity in a social insect.

To date very few studies have addressed the effects of inbreeding in social Hymenoptera, perhaps because the costs of inbreeding are generally considered marginal owing to male haploidy whereby recessive deleterious alleles are strongly exposed to selection in males. Here, we present one of the first studies on the effects of queen and worker homozygosity on colony performance. In a wild population of the ant Formica exsecta, the relative investment of single-queen colonies in sexual production decreased with increased worker homozygosity. This may either stem from increased homozygosity decreasing the likelihood of diploid brood to develop into queens or a lower efficiency of more homozygous workers at feeding larvae and thus a lower proportion of the female brood developing into queens. There was also a significant negative association between colony age and the level of queen but not worker homozygosity. This association may stem from inbreeding affecting queen lifespan and/or their fecundity, and thus colony survival. However, there was no association between queen homozygosity and colony size, suggesting that inbreeding affects colony survival as a result of inbred queens having a shorter lifespan rather than a lower fecundity. Finally, there was no significant association between either worker or queen homozygosity and the probability of successful colony founding, colony size and colony productivity, the three other traits studied. Overall, these results indicate that inbreeding depression may have important effects on colony fitness by affecting both the parental (queen) and offspring (worker)generations cohabiting within an ant colony.

Effects of hatching asynchrony on sibling negotiation, begging, jostling for position and within-brood food allocation in the barn owl Tyto alba

When siblings differ markedly in their need for food, they may benefit from signalling to each other their willingness to contest the next indivisible food item delivered by the parents. This sib-sib communication system, referred to as 'sibling negotiation', may allow them to adjust optimally to investment in begging. Using barn owl (Two alba) broods. I assessed the role of within-brood age hierarchy on sibling negotiation, and in turn on jostling for position where parents predictably deliver food (i.e. nest-box entrance), begging and within-brood food allocation. More specifically, I examined three predictions derived from a game-theoretical model of sibling negotiation where a senior and a junior sibling compete for food resources (Roulin, 2002a, Johnstone and Roulin, 2003): (1) begging effort invested by the senior sibling should be less sensitive to the junior sibling's negotiation than vice versa; (2) the junior should invest less effort in sibling negotiation than its senior sibling but a similar amount of effort in begging; and (3) within-brood food allocation should be directly related to begging but only indirectly to sibling negotiation. Two-chick broods were created and vocalization in the absence (negotiation signals directed to siblings) and presence (begging signals directed to parents) of parents was recorded. In support of the first prediction, juniors begged at a low cadence after their senior sibling negotiated intensely, probably because negotiation reflects prospective investment in begging and hence willingness to compete. In contrast, the begging of senior siblings was not sensitive to their junior sibling's negotiation. In contrast to the second prediction, juniors negotiated and begged more intensely than their senior sibling apparently because they were hungrier rather than younger. In line with the third prediction, juniors monopolized food delivered by their parents when their senior sibling begged at a low level. The begging cadence of both the junior and senior sibling, the junior's negotiation cadence, the difference in age between the two nest-mates and jostling for position were not associated with the likelihood of monopolizing food. In conclusion, sibling negotiation appears to influence begging behaviour, which, in turn, affects within-brood food allocation. Juniors may negotiate to challenge their senior siblings, and thereby determine whether seniors are less hungry before deciding to beg for food. In contrast, seniors may negotiate to deter juniors from begging.

HIERFSTAT, a package for R to compute and test hierarchical F-statistics

The package HIERFSTAT for the statistical software R, created by the R Development Core Team, allows the estimate of hierarchical F-statistics from a hierarchy with any numbers of levels. In addition, it allows testing the statistical significance of population differentiation for these different levels, using a generalized likelihood-ratio test. The package HIERFSTAT is available at http://www.unil.ch/popgen/softwares/hierfstat.htm.

Global Genomic Diversity of Human Papillomavirus 6 Based on 724 Isolates and 190 Complete Genome Sequences.

Human papillomavirus type 6 (HPV6) is the major etiological agent of anogenital warts and laryngeal papillomas and has been included in both the quadrivalent and nonavalent prophylactic HPV vaccines. This study investigated the global genomic diversity of HPV6, using 724 isolates and 190 complete genomes from six continents, and the association of HPV6 genomic variants with geographical location, anatomical site of infection/disease, and gender. Initially, a 2,800-bp E5a-E5b-L1-LCR fragment was sequenced from 492/530 (92.8%) HPV6-positive samples collected for this study. Among them, 130 exhibited at least one single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), indel, or amino acid change in the E5a-E5b-L1-LCR fragment and were sequenced in full. A global alignment and maximum likelihood tree of 190 complete HPV6 genomes (130 fully sequenced in this study and 60 obtained from sequence repositories) revealed two variant lineages, A and B, and five B sublineages: B1, B2, B3, B4, and B5. HPV6 (sub)lineage-specific SNPs and a 960-bp representative region for whole-genome-based phylogenetic clustering within the L2 open reading frame were identified. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that lineage B predominated globally. Sublineage B3 was more common in Africa and North and South America, and lineage A was more common in Asia. Sublineages B1 and B3 were associated with anogenital infections, indicating a potential lesion-specific predilection of some HPV6 sublineages. Females had higher odds for infection with sublineage B3 than males. In conclusion, a global HPV6 phylogenetic analysis revealed the existence of two variant lineages and five sublineages, showing some degree of ethnogeographic, gender, and/or disease predilection in their distribution. IMPORTANCE: This study established the largest database of globally circulating HPV6 genomic variants and contributed a total of 130 new, complete HPV6 genome sequences to available sequence repositories. Two HPV6 variant lineages and five sublineages were identified and showed some degree of association with geographical location, anatomical site of infection/disease, and/or gender. We additionally identified several HPV6 lineage- and sublineage-specific SNPs to facilitate the identification of HPV6 variants and determined a representative region within the L2 gene that is suitable for HPV6 whole-genome-based phylogenetic analysis. This study complements and significantly expands the current knowledge of HPV6 genetic diversity and forms a comprehensive basis for future epidemiological, evolutionary, functional, pathogenicity, vaccination, and molecular assay development studies.

Multiple Paternity in Polyandrous Barn Owls (Tyto alba).

In polyandrous species females produce successive clutches with several males. Female barn owls (Tyto alba) often desert their offspring and mate to produce a 2(nd) annual brood with a second male. We tested whether copulating during chick rearing at the 1(st) annual brood increases the male's likelihood to obtain paternity at the 2(nd) annual breeding attempt of his female mate in case she deserts their brood to produce a second brood with a different male. Using molecular paternity analyses we found that 2 out of 26 (8%) second annual broods of deserting females contained in total 6 extra-pair young out of 15 nestlings. These young were all sired by the male with whom the female had produced the 1(st) annual brood. In contrast, none of the 49 1(st) annual breeding attempts (219 offspring) and of the 20 2(nd) annual breeding attempts (93 offspring) of non-deserting females contained extra-pair young. We suggest that female desertion can select male counter-strategies to increase paternity and hence individual fitness. Alternatively, females may copulate with the 1(st) male to derive genetic benefits, since he is usually of higher quality than the 2(nd) male which is commonly a yearling individual.

Is accountability a double-edged sword? Experimental evidence on the effectiveness of internal controls to prevent fraud

Recent legislations oblige organizations to monitor the effectiveness of internal control mechanisms that are necessary to prevent fraud. However, little is known about the effectiveness of different internal controls. We investigate whether the duty to sign work results-one of the most prominent internal control mechanisms-is effective to prevent fraud under different superior instructions. We use a 2×2 between-subjects experimental design with accountability (duty to sign work results vs. no duty to sign) and superior instructions (with vs. without profit maximization cue) as independent variables. Both manipulations of superior instructions reminded people to respect accounting standards and principles but in one condition, an instruction to increase revenues was integrated as profit maximization cue. We expected this cue to trigger a profit maximization decision frame that increases the likelihood for fraudulent revenue recording. 58 managers from an executive MBA class participated in the experiment. We find that superior instructions interact with accountability. Fraudulent revenue recording was particularly observed when people received instructions to increase revenues and had to sign their work results. Consequently, fraudulent behavior can occur without pressure to commit fraud due to profit maximization cues that are communicated by a superior and despite implemented internal control mechanisms. We discuss possible implications of our results for the prevention of fraudulent behavior.

Informing the judgments of fingerprint analysts using quality metric and statistical assessment tools

The aim of this research was to evaluate how fingerprint analysts would incorporate information from newly developed tools into their decision making processes. Specifically, we assessed effects using the following: (1) a quality tool to aid in the assessment of the clarity of the friction ridge details, (2) a statistical tool to provide likelihood ratios representing the strength of the corresponding features between compared fingerprints, and (3) consensus information from a group of trained fingerprint experts. The measured variables for the effect on examiner performance were the accuracy and reproducibility of the conclusions against the ground truth (including the impact on error rates) and the analyst accuracy and variation for feature selection and comparison.¦The results showed that participants using the consensus information from other fingerprint experts demonstrated more consistency and accuracy in minutiae selection. They also demonstrated higher accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity in the decisions reported. The quality tool also affected minutiae selection (which, in turn, had limited influence on the reported decisions); the statistical tool did not appear to influence the reported decisions.