Handling of Uncertainty in Life Cycle Inventory by Correlated Multivariate Lognormal Distributions: Application to the Design of Supply Chain Networks

Poster presented in the 24th European Symposium on Computer Aided Process Engineering (ESCAPE 24), Budapest, Hungary, June 15-18, 2014.

Handling of Uncertainty in Life Cycle Inventory by Correlated Multivariate Lognormal Distributions: Application to the Design of Supply Chain Networks

In this work, we analyze the effect of incorporating life cycle inventory (LCI) uncertainty on the multi-objective optimization of chemical supply chains (SC) considering simultaneously their economic and environmental performance. To this end, we present a stochastic multi-scenario mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) coupled with a two-step transformation scenario generation algorithm with the unique feature of providing scenarios where the LCI random variables are correlated and each one of them has the desired lognormal marginal distribution. The environmental performance is quantified following life cycle assessment (LCA) principles, which are represented in the model formulation through standard algebraic equations. The capabilities of our approach are illustrated through a case study of a petrochemical supply chain. We show that the stochastic solution improves the economic performance of the SC in comparison with the deterministic one at any level of the environmental impact, and moreover the correlation among environmental burdens provides more realistic scenarios for the decision making process.

Constraint qualifications in convex vector semi-infinite optimization

Convex vector (or multi-objective) semi-infinite optimization deals with the simultaneous minimization of finitely many convex scalar functions subject to infinitely many convex constraints. This paper provides characterizations of the weakly efficient, efficient and properly efficient points in terms of cones involving the data and Karush–Kuhn–Tucker conditions. The latter characterizations rely on different local and global constraint qualifications. The results in this paper generalize those obtained by the same authors on linear vector semi-infinite optimization problems.

Optimization of test and maintenance of ageing components consisting of multiple items and addressing effectiveness

There are many models in the literature that have been proposed in the last decades aimed at assessing the reliability, availability and maintainability (RAM) of safety equipment, many of them with a focus on their use to assess the risk level of a technological system or to search for appropriate design and/or surveillance and maintenance policies in order to assure that an optimum level of RAM of safety systems is kept during all the plant operational life. This paper proposes a new approach for RAM modelling that accounts for equipment ageing and maintenance and testing effectiveness of equipment consisting of multiple items in an integrated manner. This model is then used to perform the simultaneous optimization of testing and maintenance for ageing equipment consisting of multiple items. An example of application is provided, which considers a simplified High Pressure Injection System (HPIS) of a typical Power Water Reactor (PWR). Basically, this system consists of motor driven pumps (MDP) and motor operated valves (MOV), where both types of components consists of two items each. These components present different failure and cause modes and behaviours, and they also undertake complex test and maintenance activities depending on the item involved. The results of the example of application demonstrate that the optimization algorithm provide the best solutions when the optimization problem is formulated and solved considering full flexibility in the implementation of testing and maintenance activities taking part of such an integrated RAM model.

Characterization of residual soil used for infiltration of reclaimed water

The effects of climate change and the growing demand for water for domestic, industrial, agricultural and recreational activities have been led the use of treated wastewater (reclaimed water) for such applications. The artificial recharge of aquifers with treated wastewater can be an alternative way for restoring underground water volumes that can be used for satisfying some activities, particularly in water shortage areas or where their quality is not suitable for use. After a two-year monitoring period in the Vila Fernando WWTP (Guarda, Portugal), the characteristics of the treated effluent suggest that it could be used for infiltration for aquifer recharge. A multi-criteria analysis based on GIS was developed for site location of infiltration sites. The procedure has involved the combination of six thematic maps and environmental, technical and economic criteria, over an area of 6687.1 ha. About 6.4 ha were selected for suitable sites for infiltration and one of these sites (Quinta de Gonçalo Martins, Guarda) was selected for collecting soil samples. The characterization of the soil indicates that is favorable to the infiltration of treated wastewater for artificial recharge of aquifers.

Sedimentology, organic geochemistry, and stable isotopes of core PS2138-1

We studied variations in terrigenous (TOM) and marine organic matter (MOM) input in a sediment core on the northern Barents Sea margin over the last 30 ka. Using a multiproxy approach, we reconstructed processes controlling organic carbon deposition and investigated their paleoceanographic significance in the North Atlantic-Arctic Gateways. Variations in paleo-surface-water productivity are not documented in amount and composition of organic carbon. The highest level of MOM was deposited during 25-23 ka as a result of scavenging on fine-grained, reworked, and TOM-rich material released by the retreating Svalbard/Barents Sea ice sheet during the late Weichselian. A second peak of MOM is preserved because of sorptive protection by detrital and terrigenous organic matter, higher surface-water productivity due to permanent intrusion of Atlantic water, and high suspension load release by melting sea ice during 15.9-11.2 ka.

Optimising profitability and environmental trade-offs in managing cropping systems using differential evolution

Whilst traditional optimisation techniques based on mathematical programming techniques are in common use, they suffer from their inability to explore the complexity of decision problems addressed using agricultural system models. In these models, the full decision space is usually very large while the solution space is characterized by many local optima. Methods to search such large decision spaces rely on effective sampling of the problem domain. Nevertheless, problem reduction based on insight into agronomic relations and farming practice is necessary to safeguard computational feasibility. Here, we present a global search approach based on an Evolutionary Algorithm (EA). We introduce a multi-objective evaluation technique within this EA framework, linking the optimisation procedure to the APSIM cropping systems model. The approach addresses the issue of system management when faced with a trade-off between economic and ecological consequences.

Precision-recall operating characteristic (P-ROC) curves in imprecise environments

Traditionally, machine learning algorithms have been evaluated in applications where assumptions can be reliably made about class priors and/or misclassification costs. In this paper, we consider the case of imprecise environments, where little may be known about these factors and they may well vary significantly when the system is applied. Specifically, the use of precision-recall analysis is investigated and compared to the more well known performance measures such as error-rate and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC). We argue that while ROC analysis is invariant to variations in class priors, this invariance in fact hides an important factor of the evaluation in imprecise environments. Therefore, we develop a generalised precision-recall analysis methodology in which variation due to prior class probabilities is incorporated into a multi-way analysis of variance (ANOVA). The increased sensitivity and reliability of this approach is demonstrated in a remote sensing application.

Gas distribution in shallow large diameter packed beds

It is important to maintain a uniform distribution of gas and liquid in large diameter packed columns to maintain mass transfer efficiency on scaling up. This work presents measurements and methods of evaluating maldistributed gas flow in packed columns. Little or no previous work has been done in this field. A gas maldistribution number, F, was defined, based on point to point velocity variations in the gas emerging from the top of packed beds. f has a minimum value for a uniformly distributed flow and much larger values for maldistributed flows. A method of testing the quality of vapour distributors is proposed, based on "the variation of f with packed height. A good gas distributor requires a short packed depth to give a good gas distribution. Measurements of gas maldistribution have shown that the principle of dynamic similarity is satisfied if two geometrically similar beds are operated at the same Reynold's number. The validity of f as a good measure of gas maldistribution, and the principle of dynamic similarity are tested statistically by Multi-Factor Analysis of the variance, and visually by the response "surfaces technique. Pressure distribution has been measured in a model of a large diameter packed bed, and shown to be associated with the velocity of the gas in a tangential feed pipe. Two simplified theoretical models are proposed to describe the flow of gases through packed beds and to support the principle of dynamic similarity. These models explain why the packed bed itself causes the flow of gas to become more uniformly distributed. A 1.2m. diameter scaled-down model was constructed geometrically similar to a 7.3m. diameter vacuum crude distillation column. The previously known internal cylinder gas distributor was tested. Three new distributors suitable for use in a large diameter column were developed and tested, these are: Internal Cylinder with Slots and Cross Baffles, Internal Cylinder with Guides in the Annulus, Internal Cylinder with Internal Cross Baffles - It has been shown that this is an excellent distributor.

Comparing transport emissions and impacts for energy recovery from domestic waste (EfW): centralised and distributed disposal options for two UK Counties

Many local authorities (LAs) are currently working to reduce both greenhouse gas emissions and the amount of municipal solid waste (MSW) sent to landfill. The recovery of energy from waste (EfW) can assist in meeting both of these objectives. The choice of an EfW policy combines spatial and non-spatial decisions which may be handled using Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). This paper addresses the impact of transporting MSW to EfW facilities, analysed as part of a larger decision support system designed to make an overall policy assessment of centralised (large-scale) and distributed (local-scale) approaches. Custom-written ArcMap extensions are used to compare centralised versus distributed approaches, using shortest-path routing based on expected road speed. Results are intersected with 1-kilometre grids and census geographies for meaningful maps of cumulative impact. Case studies are described for two counties in the United Kingdom (UK); Cornwall and Warwickshire. For both case study areas, centralised scenarios generate more traffic, fuel costs and emitted carbon per tonne of MSW processed.

Rotational and centration stability of an aspheric intraocular lens with a simulated toric design

Purpose: To assess the stability of the Akreos AO intraocular lens (IOL) platform with a simulated toric design using objective image analysis. Setting: Six hospital eye clinics across Europe. Methods: After implantation in 1 eye of patients, IOLs with orientation marks were imaged at 1 to 2 days, 7 to 14 days, 30 to 60 days, and 120 to 180 days. The axis of rotation and IOL centration were objectively assessed using validated image analysis. Results: The study enrolled 107 patients with a mean age of 69.9 years ± 7.7 (SD). The image quality was sufficient for IOL rotation analysis in 91% of eyes. The mean rotation between the first day postoperatively and 120 to 180 days was 1.93 ± 2.33 degrees, with 96% of IOLs rotating fewer than 5 degrees and 99% rotating fewer than 10 degrees. There was no significant rotation between visits and no clear bias in the direction of rotation. In 71% of eyes, the dilation and image quality was sufficient for image analysis of centration. The mean change in centration between 1 day and 120 to 180 days was 0.21 ± 0.11 mm, with all IOLs decentering less than 0.5 mm. There was no significant decentration between visits and no clear bias in the direction of the decentration. Conclusion: Objective analysis of digital retroillumination images taken at different postoperative periods shows the aspheric IOL platform was stable in the eye and is therefore suitable for the application of a toric surface to correct corneal astigmatism.

From cardinal spline wavelet bases to highly coherent dictionaries

Wavelet families arise by scaling and translations of a prototype function, called the mother wavelet. The construction of wavelet bases for cardinal spline spaces is generally carried out within the multi-resolution analysis scheme. Thus, the usual way of increasing the dimension of the multi-resolution subspaces is by augmenting the scaling factor. We show here that, when working on a compact interval, the identical effect can be achieved without changing the wavelet scale but reducing the translation parameter. By such a procedure we generate a redundant frame, called a dictionary, spanning the same spaces as a wavelet basis but with wavelets of broader support. We characterize the correlation of the dictionary elements by measuring their 'coherence' and produce examples illustrating the relevance of highly coherent dictionaries to problems of sparse signal representation.

Intra-cavity dynamics in high power mode-locked fiber lasers

A theoretical model allows for the characterization and optimization of the intra-cavity pulse evolutions in high-power fiber lasers. Multi-parameter analysis of laser performance can be made at a fraction of the computational cost.

An exploration of female leadership language:case studies of senior women in Bahrain

This is a multiple case study of the leadership language of three senior women working in a large corporation in Bahrain. The study’s main aim is to explore the linguistic practices the women leaders use with their colleagues and subordinates in corporate meetings. Adopting a Foucauldian (1972) notion of ‘discourses’ as social practices and a view of gender as socially constructed and discursively performed (Butler 1990), this research aims to unveil the competing discourses which may shape the leadership language of senior women in their communities of practice. The research is situated within the broader field of Sociolinguistics and the specific field of Language and Gender. To address the research aim, a case study approach incorporating multiple methods of qualitative data collection (observation, interviews, and shadowing) was utilised to gather information about the three women leaders and produce a rich description of their use of language in and out of meeting contexts. For analysis, principles of Qualitative Data Analysis (QDA) were used to organise and sort the large amount of data. Also, Feminist Post- Structuralist Discourse Analysis (FPDA) was adopted to produce a multi-faceted analysis of the subjects, their language leadership, power relations, and competing discourses in the context. It was found that the three senior women enact leadership differently making variable use of a repertoire of conventionally masculine and feminine linguistic practices. However, they all appear to have limited language resources and even more limiting subject positions; and they all have to exercise considerable linguistic expertise to police and modify their language in order to avoid the ‘double bind’. Yet, the extent of this limitation and constraints depends on the community of practice with its prevailing discourses, which appear to have their roots in Islamic and cultural practices as well as some Western influences acquired throughout the company’s history. It is concluded that it may be particularly challenging for Middle Eastern women to achieve any degree of equality with men in the workplace because discourses of Gender difference lie at the core of Islamic teaching and ideology.