Precautionary principles: a jurisdiction-free framework for decision-making under risk

Fundamental principles of precaution are legal maxims that ask for preventive actions, perhaps as contingent interim measures while relevant information about causality and harm remains unavailable, to minimize the societal impact of potentially severe or irreversible outcomes. Such principles do not explain how to make choices or how to identify what is protective when incomplete and inconsistent scientific evidence of causation characterizes the potential hazards. Rather, they entrust lower jurisdictions, such as agencies or authorities, to make current decisions while recognizing that future information can contradict the scientific basis that supported the initial decision. After reviewing and synthesizing national and international legal aspects of precautionary principles, this paper addresses the key question: How can society manage potentially severe, irreversible or serious environmental outcomes when variability, uncertainty, and limited causal knowledge characterize their decision-making? A decision-analytic solution is outlined that focuses on risky decisions and accounts for prior states of information and scientific beliefs that can be updated as subsequent information becomes available. As a practical and established approach to causal reasoning and decision-making under risk, inherent to precautionary decision-making, these (Bayesian) methods help decision-makers and stakeholders because they formally account for probabilistic outcomes, new information, and are consistent and replicable. Rational choice of an action from among various alternatives-defined as a choice that makes preferred consequences more likely-requires accounting for costs, benefits and the change in risks associated with each candidate action. Decisions under any form of the precautionary principle reviewed must account for the contingent nature of scientific information, creating a link to the decision-analytic principle of expected value of information (VOI), to show the relevance of new information, relative to the initial ( and smaller) set of data on which the decision was based. We exemplify this seemingly simple situation using risk management of BSE. As an integral aspect of causal analysis under risk, the methods developed in this paper permit the addition of non-linear, hormetic dose-response models to the current set of regulatory defaults such as the linear, non-threshold models. This increase in the number of defaults is an important improvement because most of the variants of the precautionary principle require cost-benefit balancing. Specifically, increasing the set of causal defaults accounts for beneficial effects at very low doses. We also show and conclude that quantitative risk assessment dominates qualitative risk assessment, supporting the extension of the set of default causal models.

Finding meaning in parenting a child with Asperger syndrome: correlates of sense making and benefit finding

This study explored the nature of two construals of meaning, benefit finding and sense making, in parents of a child with Asperger syndrome, and examined relations between both meaning constructs and the Double ABCX family stress model variables (initial stressor and pile-up of demands, appraisal, social support, coping strategies and adjustment) [H.I. McCubbin, J.M. Patterson, Social Stress and the Family: Advances and Developments in Family Stress Theory and Research, Haworth, New York, 1983, pp. 7-37]. A total of 59 parents completed questionnaires. Content analyses of parents' responses to questions inquiring about gains and sense making explanations revealed 8 benefit and 12 sense making themes. Results of correlations indicated that one or more of the meaning variables were related to each of the Double ABCX model predictors of parental adjustment. The meaning variables were positively related to adaptive coping processes: social support, self-efficacy, and problem-focused and emotional approach coping strategies. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Clinical decision-making and myocardial viability: current perspectives

Not all myocardium involved in a myocardial infarction is dead or irreversibly damaged. The balance between the amount of scar and live tissue, and the nature of the live tissue, determine the likelihood that contractile function will improve after revascularisation. This improvement (which defines viability) may be predicted with about 80% accuracy using several techniques. This review examines the determinants of functional recovery and how they may be integrated in making decisions regarding revascularisation. (Intern Med J 2005; 35: 118–125)

Information giving and decision-making in patients with advanced cancer: A systematic review

Patients with advanced, non-curable cancer face difficult decisions on further treatment, where a small increase in survival time must be balanced against: the toxicity of the treatment. If patients want to be involved in these decisions, in keeping with current notions of autonomy and empowerment, they also require to be adequately informed both on the treatments proposed and on their own disease status and prognosis. A systematic review was performed on decision-making and information provision in patients with advanced cancer. Studies of interventions to improve information giving and encourage participation in decision-making were reviewed, including both randomised controlled trials and uncontrolled studies. Almost all patients expressed a desire for full information, but only about two-thirds wished to participate actively in decision-making. Higher educational level, younger age and female sex were predictive of a desire to participate in decision-making. Active decision-making was more common in patients with certain cancers (e.g. breast) than others (e.g. prostate). A number of simple interventions including question prompt sheets, audio-taping of consultations and patient decision aids have been shown to facilitate such involvement. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Occupational therapists' decision making in three therapy settings in Australia

Can a work setting with its organizational, cultural, and practical considerations influence the way occupational therapists make decisions regarding client interventions? There is currently a paucity of evidence available to answer this question. This study aimed to investigate the influence of work setting on therapists’ clinical reasoning in the management of clients with cerebral palsy and upper limb hypertonicity. Specifically the study aimed to examine therapists’ objective and stated policies, and their intervention decisions using Social Judgement Theory methodology. Participants were eighteen occupational therapists with more than five years experience with clients with cerebral palsy who were asked to make intervention decisions for clients represented by 90 case vignettes. They worked in three settings, hospitals (5), schools (6), and community (6). The results indicated that therapy settings did influence therapists’ decisions about intervention choices but not their objective and subjective policy decisions.

Bad apples in bad barrels revisited: Cognitive moral development, just world beliefs, rewards, and ethical decision-making

In this study, we test the interactive effect on ethical decision-making of (1) personal characteristics, and (2) personal expectancies based on perceptions of organizational rewards and punishments. Personal characteristics studied were cognitive moral development and belief in a just world. Using an in-basket simulation, we found that exposure to reward system information influenced managers' outcome expectancies. Further, outcome expectancies and belief in a just world interacted with managers' cognitive moral development to influence managers' ethical decision-making. In particular, low-cognitive moral development managers who expected that their organization condoned unethical behavior made less ethical decisions while high cognitive moral development managers became more ethical in this environment. Low cognitive moral development managers also behaved less ethically when their belief in a just world was high.

Factors influencing Hong Kong Chinese patients' decision-making in seeking early treatment for acute myocardial infarction

The purpose of this study was to identify, through in-depth interview, factors that influenced 27 Hong Kong Chinese patients' decision-making in seeking early treatment for acute myocardial infarction (AMI). The median delay time from the onset of symptoms to arrival at the hospital was 15.6 hours for men and 53.7 hours for women. Three major categories emerged from the data: (a) becoming aware of the threat, (b) maintaining a sense of normality, and (c) struggling to mobilize resources. A variety of decisions were made by patients from the onset of chest Pain to seeking help. These decisions were heavily influenced by healthcare factors (access to emergency medical service (EMS) and treatment), personal factors (cognitive interpretations of symptoms), sociocultural factors (family situation, cultural beliefs, and practices), and coping strategies. (c) 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Virtual training environments to improve train driver's crisis decision making

This paper reports on a current research project in which virtual reality simulators are being investigated as a means of simulating hazardous Rail work conditions in order to allow train drivers to practice decision-making under stress. When working under high stress conditions train drivers need to move beyond procedural responses into a response activated through their own problem-solving and decision-making skills. This study focuses on the use of stress inoculation training which aims to build driver’s confidence in the use of new decision-making skills by being repeatedly required to respond to hazardous driving conditions. In particular, the study makes use of a train cab driving simulator to reproduce potentially stress inducing real-world scenarios. Initial pilot research has been undertaken in which drivers have experienced the training simulation and subsequently completed surveys on the level of immersion experienced. Concurrently drivers have also participated in a velocity perception experiment designed to objectively measure the fidelity of the virtual training environment. Baseline data, against which decision-making skills post training will be measured, is being gathered via cognitive task analysis designed to identify primary decision requirements for specific rail events. While considerable efforts have been invested in improving Virtual Reality technology, little is known about how to best use this technology for training personnel to respond to workplace conditions in the Rail Industry. To enable the best use of simulators for training in the Rail context the project aims to identify those factors within virtual reality that support required learning outcomes and use this information to design training simulations that reliably and safely train staff in required workplace accident response skills.