Analiza struktury przestrzennej i czasoprzestrzennej maksymalnych opadów dobowych w Polsce w latach 1956-1980

Jednym z wyników prognoz wykonywanych z zastosowaniem globalnych i regionalnych modeli klimatycznych jest odkrycie wysokiego prawdopodobieństwa wzrostu częstości oraz natężenia ekstremalnych opadów. Poznanie prawidłowości ich powtarzalności i zasięgu przestrzennego ma oczywiście bardzo duże znaczenie gospodarcze i społeczne. Dlatego, niezależnie od wprowadzania nowych technik pomiarowych należy dokonywać analizy i reinterpretacji archiwalnych danych, korzystając z możliwości stwarzanych przez rozwój GIS. Głównym celem opracowania jest analiza prawidłowości przestrzennej i czasowej zmienności miesięcznych oraz rocznych maksymalnych dobowych sum opadów (MSDO) z lat 1956-1980, z obszaru Polski. W pracy wykorzystano nowe w geografii polskiej metody geostatystyczne. Do publikacji dołączono dysk DVD ze źródłową bazą danych i najważniejszymi wynikami w postaci numerycznej i kartograficznej.

Environmental and biological characteristics of lagoons on the southwest coast of Ireland

Coastal lagoons are defined as shallow coastal water bodies partially separated from the adjacent sea by a restrictive barrier. Coastal lagoons are protected under Annex I of the European Habitats Directive (92/43/EEC). Lagoons are also considered to be “transitional water bodies” and are therefore included in the “register of protected areas” under the Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC). Consequently, EU member states are required to establish monitoring plans and to regularly report on lagoon condition and conservation status. Irish lagoons are considered relatively rare and unusual because of their North Atlantic, macrotidal location on high energy coastlines and have received little attention. This work aimed to assess the physicochemical and ecological status of three lagoons, Cuskinny, Farranamanagh and Toormore, on the southwest coast of Ireland. Baseline salinity, nutrient and biological conditions were determined in order to provide reference conditions to detect perturbations, and to inform future maintenance of ecosystem health. Accumulation of organic matter is an increasing pressure in coastal lagoon habitats worldwide, often compounding existing eutrophication problems. This research also aimed to investigate the in situ decomposition process in a lagoon habitat together with exploring the associated invertebrate assemblages. Re-classification of the lagoons, under the guidelines of the Venice system for the classifications of marine waters according to salinity, was completed by taking spatial and temporal changes in salinity regimes into consideration. Based on the results of this study, Cuskinny, Farranamanagh and Toormore lagoons are now classified as mesohaline (5 ppt – 18 ppt), oligohaline (0.5 ppt – 5 ppt) and polyhaline (18 ppt – 30 ppt), respectively. Varying vertical, longitudinal and transverse salinity patterns were observed in the three lagoons. Strong correlations between salinity and cumulative rainfall highlighted the important role of precipitation in controlling the lagoon environment. Maximum effect of precipitation on the salinity of the lagoon was observed between four and fourteen days later depending on catchment area geology, indicating the uniqueness of each lagoon system. Seasonal nutrient patterns were evident in the lagoons. Nutrient concentrations were found to be reflective of the catchment area and the magnitude of the freshwater inflow. Assessment based on the Redfield molar ratio indicated a trend towards phosphorus, rather than nitrogen, limitation in Irish lagoons. Investigation of the decomposition process in Cuskinny Lagoon revealed that greatest biomass loss occurred in the winter season. Lowest biomass loss occurred in spring, possibly due to the high density of invertebrates feeding on the thick microbial layer rather than the decomposing litter. It has been reported that the decomposition of plant biomass is highest in the preferential distribution area of the plant species; however, no similar trend was observed in this study with the most active zones of decomposition varying spatially throughout the seasons. Macroinvertebrate analysis revealed low species diversity but high abundance, indicating the dominance of a small number of species. Invertebrate assemblages within the lagoon varied significantly from communities in the adjacent freshwater or marine environments. Although carried out in coastal lagoons on the southwest coast of Ireland, it is envisaged that the overall findings of this study have relevance throughout the entire island of Ireland and possibly to many North Atlantic coastal lagoon ecosystems elsewhere.

Using fractal downscaling of satellite precipitation products for hydrometeorological applications

The objective of spatial downscaling strategies is to increase the information content of coarse datasets at smaller scales. In the case of quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) for hydrological applications, the goal is to close the scale gap between the spatial resolution of coarse datasets (e.g., gridded satellite precipitation products at resolution L × L) and the high resolution (l × l; L»l) necessary to capture the spatial features that determine spatial variability of water flows and water stores in the landscape. In essence, the downscaling process consists of weaving subgrid-scale heterogeneity over a desired range of wavelengths in the original field. The defining question is, which properties, statistical and otherwise, of the target field (the known observable at the desired spatial resolution) should be matched, with the caveat that downscaling methods be as a general as possible and therefore ideally without case-specific constraints and/or calibration requirements? Here, the attention is focused on two simple fractal downscaling methods using iterated functions systems (IFS) and fractal Brownian surfaces (FBS) that meet this requirement. The two methods were applied to disaggregate spatially 27 summertime convective storms in the central United States during 2007 at three consecutive times (1800, 2100, and 0000 UTC, thus 81 fields overall) from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) version 6 (V6) 3B42 precipitation product (~25-km grid spacing) to the same resolution as the NCEP stage IV products (~4-km grid spacing). Results from bilinear interpolation are used as the control. A fundamental distinction between IFS and FBS is that the latter implies a distribution of downscaled fields and thus an ensemble solution, whereas the former provides a single solution. The downscaling effectiveness is assessed using fractal measures (the spectral exponent β, fractal dimension D, Hurst coefficient H, and roughness amplitude R) and traditional operational scores statistics scores [false alarm rate (FR), probability of detection (PD), threat score (TS), and Heidke skill score (HSS)], as well as bias and the root-mean-square error (RMSE). The results show that both IFS and FBS fractal interpolation perform well with regard to operational skill scores, and they meet the additional requirement of generating structurally consistent fields. Furthermore, confidence intervals can be directly generated from the FBS ensemble. The results were used to diagnose errors relevant for hydrometeorological applications, in particular a spatial displacement with characteristic length of at least 50 km (2500 km2) in the location of peak rainfall intensities for the cases studied. © 2010 American Meteorological Society.

Intensification of summer rainfall variability in the southeastern United States during recent decades

The variability of summer precipitation in the southeastern United States is examined in this study using 60-yr (1948-2007) rainfall data. The Southeast summer rainfalls exhibited higher interannual variability with more intense summer droughts and anomalous wetness in the recent 30 years (1978-2007) than in the prior 30 years (1948-77). Such intensification of summer rainfall variability was consistent with a decrease of light (0.1-1 mm day-1) and medium (1-10 mm day-1) rainfall events during extremely dry summers and an increase of heavy (.10 mm day-1) rainfall events in extremely wet summers. Changes in rainfall variability were also accompanied by a southward shift of the region of maximum zonal wind variability at the jet stream level in the latter period. The covariability between the Southeast summer precipitation and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is also analyzed using the singular value decomposition (SVD) method. It is shown that the increase of Southeast summer precipitation variability is primarily associated with a higher SST variability across the equatorial Atlantic and also SST warming in the Atlantic. © 2010 American Meteorological Society.

Contribution of the North Atlantic subtropical high to regional climate model (RCM) skill in simulating southeastern United States summer precipitation

© 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.This study assesses the skill of advanced regional climate models (RCMs) in simulating southeastern United States (SE US) summer precipitation and explores the physical mechanisms responsible for the simulation skill at a process level. Analysis of the RCM output for the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program indicates that the RCM simulations of summer precipitation show the largest biases and a remarkable spread over the SE US compared to other regions in the contiguous US. The causes of such a spread are investigated by performing simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, a next-generation RCM developed by the US National Center for Atmospheric Research. The results show that the simulated biases in SE US summer precipitation are due mainly to the misrepresentation of the modeled North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH) western ridge. In the WRF simulations, the NASH western ridge shifts 7° northwestward when compared to that in the reanalysis ensemble, leading to a dry bias in the simulated summer precipitation according to the relationship between the NASH western ridge and summer precipitation over the southeast. Experiments utilizing the four dimensional data assimilation technique further suggest that the improved representation of the circulation patterns (i.e., wind fields) associated with the NASH western ridge substantially reduces the bias in the simulated SE US summer precipitation. Our analysis of circulation dynamics indicates that the NASH western ridge in the WRF simulations is significantly influenced by the simulated planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes over the Gulf of Mexico. Specifically, a decrease (increase) in the simulated PBL height tends to stabilize (destabilize) the lower troposphere over the Gulf of Mexico, and thus inhibits (favors) the onset and/or development of convection. Such changes in tropical convection induce a tropical–extratropical teleconnection pattern, which modulates the circulation along the NASH western ridge in the WRF simulations and contributes to the modeled precipitation biases over the SE US. In conclusion, our study demonstrates that the NASH western ridge is an important factor responsible for the RCM skill in simulating SE US summer precipitation. Furthermore, the improvements in the PBL parameterizations for the Gulf of Mexico might help advance RCM skill in representing the NASH western ridge circulation and summer precipitation over the SE US.

Thermodynamic and dynamic contributions to future changes in regional precipitation variance: focus on the Southeastern United States

© 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.The frequency and severity of extreme events are tightly associated with the variance of precipitation. As climate warms, the acceleration in hydrological cycle is likely to enhance the variance of precipitation across the globe. However, due to the lack of an effective analysis method, the mechanisms responsible for the changes of precipitation variance are poorly understood, especially on regional scales. Our study fills this gap by formulating a variance partition algorithm, which explicitly quantifies the contributions of atmospheric thermodynamics (specific humidity) and dynamics (wind) to the changes in regional-scale precipitation variance. Taking Southeastern (SE) United States (US) summer precipitation as an example, the algorithm is applied to the simulations of current and future climate by phase 5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models. The analysis suggests that compared to observations, most CMIP5 models (~60 %) tend to underestimate the summer precipitation variance over the SE US during the 1950–1999, primarily due to the errors in the modeled dynamic processes (i.e. large-scale circulation). Among the 18 CMIP5 models analyzed in this study, six of them reasonably simulate SE US summer precipitation variance in the twentieth century and the underlying physical processes; these models are thus applied for mechanistic study of future changes in SE US summer precipitation variance. In the future, the six models collectively project an intensification of SE US summer precipitation variance, resulting from the combined effects of atmospheric thermodynamics and dynamics. Between them, the latter plays a more important role. Specifically, thermodynamics results in more frequent and intensified wet summers, but does not contribute to the projected increase in the frequency and intensity of dry summers. In contrast, atmospheric dynamics explains the projected enhancement in both wet and dry summers, indicating its importance in understanding future climate change over the SE US. The results suggest that the intensified SE US summer precipitation variance is not a purely thermodynamic response to greenhouse gases forcing, and cannot be explained without the contribution of atmospheric dynamics. Our analysis provides important insights to understand the mechanisms of SE US summer precipitation variance change. The algorithm formulated in this study can be easily applied to other regions and seasons to systematically explore the mechanisms responsible for the changes in precipitation extremes in a warming climate.

Inter-annual variability of precipitation constrains the production response of boreal Pinus sylvestris to nitrogen fertilization

© 2015 Published by Elsevier B.V.Tree growth resources and the efficiency of resource-use for biomass production determine the productivity of forest ecosystems. In nutrient-limited forests, nitrogen (N)-fertilization increases foliage [N], which may increase photosynthetic rates, leaf area index (L), and thus light interception (IC). The product of such changes is a higher gross primary production and higher net primary production (NPP). However, fertilization may also alter carbohydrate partitioning from below- to aboveground, increasing aboveground NPP (ANPP). We analyzed effects of long-term N-fertilization on NPP, and that of long-term carbon storing organs (NPPS) in a Pinus sylvestris forest on sandy soil, a wide-ranging forest type in the boreal region. We based our analyses on a combination of destructive harvesting, consecutive mensuration, and optical measurements of canopy openness. After eight-year fertilization with a total of 70gNm^-2, ANPP was 27±7% higher in the fertilized (F) relative to the reference (R) stand, but although L increased relative to its pre-fertilization values, IC was not greater than in R. On the seventh year after the treatment initiation, the increase of ANPP was matched by the decrease of belowground NPP (78 vs. 92gCm^-2yr^-1; ~17% of NPP) and, given the similarity of IC, suggests that the main effect of N-fertilization was changed carbon partitioning rather than increased canopy photosynthesis. Annual NPPS increased linearly with growing season temperature (T) in both treatments, with an upward shift of 70.2gCm^-2yr^-1 by fertilization, which also caused greater amount of unexplained variation (r²=0.53 in R, 0.21 in F). Residuals of the NPPS-T relationship of F were related to growing season precipitation (P, r²=0.48), indicating that T constrains productivity at this site regardless of fertility, while P is important in determining productivity where N-limitation is alleviated. We estimated that, in a growing season average T (11.5±1.0°C; 33-year-mean), NPPS response to N-fertilization will be nullified with P 31mm less than the mean (325±85mm), and would double with P 109mm greater than the mean. These results suggest that inter-annual variation in climate, particularly in P, may help explaining the reported large variability in growth responses to fertilization of pine stands on sandy soils. Furthermore, forest management of long-rotation systems, such as those of boreal and northern temperate forests, must consider the efficiency of fertilization in terms of wood production in the context of changes in climate predicted for the region.

Precipitation predictability during summer crop production in the Pampas Region of Argentina

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Precipitation predictability during summer crop production in the Pampas Region of Argentina

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Maximum curves and isolated points of entire functions

Given M(r; f) =maxjzj=r (jf(z)j) , curves belonging to the set of points M = fz : jf(z)j = M(jzj; f)g were de�ned by Hardy to be maximum curves. Clunie asked the question as to whether the set M could also contain isolated points. This paper shows that maximum curves consist of analytic arcs and determines a necessary condition for such curves to intersect. Given two entire functions f1(z) and f2(z), if the maximum curve of f1(z) is the real axis, conditions are found so that the real axis is also a maximum curve for the product function f1(z)f2(z). By means of these results an entire function of in�nite order is constructed for which the set M has an in�nite number of isolated points. A polynomial is also constructed with an isolated point.

Precipitation of heavy metals from wastewater using simulated flue gas: sequent additions of fly ash, lime and carbon dioxide

Lime is a preferred precipitant for the removal of heavy metals from industrial wastewater due to its relatively low cost. To reduce heavy metal concentration to an acceptable level for discharge, in this work, fly ash was added as a seed material to enhance lime precipitation and the suspension was exposed to CO2 gas. The fly ash-lime-carbonation treatment increased the particle size of the precipitate and significantly improved sedimentation of sludge and the efficiency of heavy metal removal. The residual concentrations of chromium, copper, lead and zinc in effluents can be reduced to (mg L-1) 0.08, 0.14, 0.03 and 0.45, respectively. Examination of the precipitates by XRD and thermal analysis techniques showed that calcium-heavy metal double hydroxides and carbonates were present. The precipitate agglomerated and hardened naturally, facilitating disposal without the need for additional solidification/stabilization measures prior to landfill. It is suggested that fly ash, lime and CO2, captured directly from flue gas, may have potential as a method for wastewater treatment. This method could allow the ex-situ sequestration of CO2, particularly where flue-gas derived CO2 is available near wastewater treatment facilities. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Maximum-likelihood estimator for coarse carrier frequency offset estimation in OFDM systems

Orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) systems are more sensitive to carrier frequency offset (CFO) compared to the conventional single carrier systems. CFO destroys the orthogonality among subcarriers, resulting in inter-carrier interference (ICI) and degrading system performance. To mitigate the effect of the CFO, it has to be estimated and compensated before the demodulation. The CFO can be divided into an integer part and a fractional part. In this paper, we investigate a maximum-likelihood estimator (MLE) for estimating the integer part of the CFO in OFDM systems, which requires only one OFDM block as the pilot symbols. To reduce the computational complexity of the MLE and improve the bandwidth efficiency, a suboptimum estimator (Sub MLE) is studied. Based on the hypothesis testing method, a threshold Sub MLE (T-Sub MLE) is proposed to further reduce the computational complexity. The performance analysis of the proposed T-Sub MLE is obtained and the analytical results match the simulation results well. Numerical results show that the proposed estimators are effective and reliable in both additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) and frequency-selective fading channels in OFDM systems.