Instructions du ministre de l'éducation nationale relatives à l'application des arrêtés du 30 août 1937 et du 11 avril 1938 fixant les programmes de l'enseignement du second degré. Fascicule 3 / Direction générale de l'instruction publique, des beaux arts et des antiquités, au Maroc

Collection : Collection d'instructions et de manuels pédagogiques

Solving non-linear stochastic models by parameterizing expectations: An application to asset pricing with production

A new algorithm called the parameterized expectations approach(PEA) for solving dynamic stochastic models under rational expectationsis developed and its advantages and disadvantages are discussed. Thisalgorithm can, in principle, approximate the true equilibrium arbitrarilywell. Also, this algorithm works from the Euler equations, so that theequilibrium does not have to be cast in the form of a planner's problem.Monte--Carlo integration and the absence of grids on the state variables,cause the computation costs not to go up exponentially when the numberof state variables or the exogenous shocks in the economy increase. \\As an application we analyze an asset pricing model with endogenousproduction. We analyze its implications for time dependence of volatilityof stock returns and the term structure of interest rates. We argue thatthis model can generate hump--shaped term structures.

Shrews in suburbia: an application of Goodman's extinction model

An equation is applied for calculating the expected persistence time of an unstructured population of the white-toothed shrew Crocidura russula from Preverenges, a suburban area in western Switzerland. Population abundance data from March and November between 1977 and 1988 were fit to the logistic density dependence model to estimate mean population growth rate as a function of population density. The variance in mean growth rate was approximated with two different models. The largest estimated persistence time was less than a few decades, the smallest less than 10 years. The results are sensitive to the magnitude of variance in population growth rate. Deviations from the logistic density dependence model in November are quite well explained by weather variables but those in March are uncorrelated with weather variables. Variability in population growth rates measured in winter months may be better explained by behavioural mechanisms. Environmental variability, dispersal of juveniles and refugia within the range of the population may contribute to its long-term survival.

Report on the review of selected general and application controls over the State University of Iowa (University of Iowa) PeopleSoft General Ledger system for the period June 4, 2007 through July 27, 2007

Report on the review of selected general and application controls over the State University of Iowa (University of Iowa) PeopleSoft General Ledger system for the period June 4, 2007 through July 27, 2007

The optimal length of contracts with application to outsourcing

This paper resolves three empirical puzzles in outsourcing by formalizing the adaptationcost of long-term performance contracts. Side-trading with a new partner alongside a long-term contract (to exploit an adaptation-requiring investment) is usually less effective than switching to the new partner when the contract expires. So long-term contracts that prevent holdup of specific investments may induce holdup of adaptation investments. Contract length therefore trades of specific and adaptation investments. Length should increase with the importance and specificity of self-investments, and decrease with the importance of adaptation investments for which side-trading is ineffective. My general model also shows how optimal length falls with cross-investments and wasteful investments.

Hybrid consumption paths in the attribute space: A model and application with scanner data

This paper presents and estimates a dynamic choice model in the attribute space considering rational consumers. In light of the evidence of several state-dependence patterns, the standard attribute-based model is extended by considering a general utility function where pure inertia and pure variety-seeking behaviors can be explained in the model as particular linear cases. The dynamics of the model are fully characterized by standard dynamic programming techniques. The model presents a stationary consumption pattern that can be inertial, where the consumer only buys one product, or a variety-seeking one, where the consumer shifts among varied products.We run some simulations to analyze the consumption paths out of the steady state. Underthe hybrid utility assumption, the consumer behaves inertially among the unfamiliar brandsfor several periods, eventually switching to a variety-seeking behavior when the stationary levels are approached. An empirical analysis is run using scanner databases for three different product categories: fabric softener, saltine cracker, and catsup. Non-linear specifications provide the best fit of the data, as hybrid functional forms are found in all the product categories for most attributes and segments. These results reveal the statistical superiority of the non-linear structure and confirm the gradual trend to seek variety as the level of familiarity with the purchased items increases.

Improved estimation of the covariance matrix of stock returns with an application to portofolio selection

This paper proposes to estimate the covariance matrix of stock returnsby an optimally weighted average of two existing estimators: the samplecovariance matrix and single-index covariance matrix. This method isgenerally known as shrinkage, and it is standard in decision theory andin empirical Bayesian statistics. Our shrinkage estimator can be seenas a way to account for extra-market covariance without having to specifyan arbitrary multi-factor structure. For NYSE and AMEX stock returns from1972 to 1995, it can be used to select portfolios with significantly lowerout-of-sample variance than a set of existing estimators, includingmulti-factor models.

Report on a review of selected general and application controls over the Iowa State University of Science and Technology payroll system for the period March 27 through May 11, 2007

Report on a review of selected general and application controls over the Iowa State University of Science and Technology payroll system for the period March 27 through May 11, 2007

Application of the 2008 definitions for invasive fungal diseases to the trial comparing voriconazole versus amphotericin B for therapy of invasive aspergillosis: a collaborative study of the Mycoses Study Group (MSG 05) and the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Infectious Diseases Group.

BACKGROUND: Strict definition of invasive aspergillosis (IA) cases is required to allow precise conclusions about the efficacy of antifungal therapy. The Global Comparative Aspergillus Study (GCAS) compared voriconazole to amphotericin B (AmB) deoxycholate for the primary therapy of IA. Because predefined definitions used for this trial were substantially different from the consensus definitions proposed by the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer/Mycoses Study Group in 2008, we recategorized the 379 episodes of the GCAS according to the later definitions. METHODS: The objectives were to assess the impact of the current definitions on the classification of the episodes and to provide comparative efficacy for probable/proven and possible IA in patients treated with either voriconazole or AmB. In addition to original data, we integrated the results of baseline galactomannan serum levels obtained from 249 (65.7%) frozen samples. The original response assessment was accepted unchanged. RESULTS: Recategorization allowed 59 proven, 178 probable, and 106 possible IA cases to be identified. A higher favorable 12-week response rate was obtained with voriconazole (54.7%) than with AmB (29.9%) (P < .0001). Survival was higher for voriconazole for mycologically documented (probable/proven) IA (70.2%) than with AmB (54.9%) (P = .010). Higher response rates were obtained in possible IA treated with voriconazole vs AmB with the same magnitude of difference (26.2%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 7.2%-45.3%) as in mycologically documented episodes (24.3%; 95% CI, 11.9%-36.7%), suggesting that possible cases are true IA. CONCLUSIONS: Recategorization resulted in a better identification of the episodes and confirmed the higher efficacy of voriconazole over AmB deoxycholate in mycologically documented IA.

Forecasting with missing data: Application to a real case

This paper presents a comparative analysis of linear and mixed modelsfor short term forecasting of a real data series with a high percentage of missing data. Data are the series of significant wave heights registered at regular periods of three hours by a buoy placed in the Bay of Biscay.The series is interpolated with a linear predictor which minimizes theforecast mean square error. The linear models are seasonal ARIMA models and themixed models have a linear component and a non linear seasonal component.The non linear component is estimated by a non parametric regression of dataversus time. Short term forecasts, no more than two days ahead, are of interestbecause they can be used by the port authorities to notice the fleet.Several models are fitted and compared by their forecasting behavior.

Improving rainwater-use in Cabo Verde drylands by reducing runoff

Dryland agriculture in Cabo Verde copes with steep slopes, inadequate practices, irregular intense rain, recurrent droughts, high runoff rates, severe soil erosion and declining fertility, leading to the inefficient use of rainwater. Maize and beans occupy N80% of the arable land in low-input, low-yielding subsistence farming. Three collaborative field trialswere conducted in different agroecological zones to evaluate the effects ofwater-conservation techniques (mulching of crop residue, a soil surfactant and pigeon-pea hedges) combinedwith organic amendments (compost and animal or green manure) on runoff and soil loss. During the 2011 and 2012 rainy seasons, three treatments and one control (traditional practice) were applied to 44- and 24-m2 field plots. A local maize variety and two types of beanswere planted. Runoff and suspended sedimentswere collected and quantified after each daily erosive rainfall. Runoff occurred for rainfalls≥50mm(slope b10%, loamy Kastanozem),≥60mm(slope≤23%, silt–clay–loam Regosol) and≥40mm(slope≤37%, sandy loam Cambisol). Runoffwas significantly reduced only with themulch treatment on the slope N10% and in the treatment of surfactant with organic amendment on the slope b10%. Soil loss reached 16.6, 5.1, 6.6 and 0.4 Mg ha−1 on the Regosol (≤23% slope) for the control, surfactant, pigeon-pea and mulch/pigeon-pea (with organic amendment) treatments, respectively; 3.2, 0.9, 1.3 and 0.1 Mg ha−1 on the Cambisol (≤37% slope) and b0. 2Mg ha−1 for all treatments and control on the Kastanozem(b10% slope). Erosion was highly positively correlated with runoff. Mulch with pigeon-pea combinedwith an organic amendment significantly reduced runoff and erosion fromagricultural fields on steep slopes, contributing to improved use of rainwater at the plot level. Sustainable land management techniques, such as mulching with pigeon-pea hedges and an organic amendment, should be advocated and promoted for the semiarid hillsides of Cabo Verde prone to erosion to increase rainwater-use and to prevent further soil degradation.