Future changes in the Western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity projected by a multidecadal simulation with a 16-km global atmospheric GCM

How tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the northwestern Pacific might change in a future climate is assessed using multidecadal Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-style and time-slice simulations with the ECMWF Integrated Forecast System (IFS) at 16-km and 125-km global resolution. Both models reproduce many aspects of the present-day TC climatology and variability well, although the 16-km IFS is far more skillful in simulating the full intensity distribution and genesis locations, including their changes in response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Both IFS models project a small change in TC frequency at the end of the twenty-first century related to distinct shifts in genesis locations. In the 16-km IFS, this shift is southward and is likely driven by the southeastward penetration of the monsoon trough/subtropical high circulation system and the southward shift in activity of the synoptic-scale tropical disturbances in response to the strengthening of deep convective activity over the central equatorial Pacific in a future climate. The 16-km IFS also projects about a 50% increase in the power dissipation index, mainly due to significant increases in the frequency of the more intense storms, which is comparable to the natural variability in the model. Based on composite analysis of large samples of supertyphoons, both the development rate and the peak intensities of these storms increase in a future climate, which is consistent with their tendency to develop more to the south, within an environment that is thermodynamically more favorable for faster development and higher intensities. Coherent changes in the vertical structure of supertyphoon composites show system-scale amplification of the primary and secondary circulations with signs of contraction, a deeper warm core, and an upward shift in the outflow layer and the frequency of the most intense updrafts. Considering the large differences in the projections of TC intensity change between the 16-km and 125-km IFS, this study further emphasizes the need for high-resolution modeling in assessing potential changes in TC activity.

Phosphorothioate backbone modifications of nucleotide-based drugs are potent platelet activators

Nucleotide-based drug candidates such as antisense oligonucleotides, aptamers, immunoreceptor-activating nucleotides, or (anti)microRNAs hold great therapeutic promise for many human diseases. Phosphorothioate (PS) backbone modification of nucleotide-based drugs is common practice to protect these promising drug candidates from rapid degradation by plasma and intracellular nucleases. Effects of the changes in physicochemical properties associated with PS modification on platelets have not been elucidated so far. Here we report the unexpected binding of PS-modified oligonucleotides to platelets eliciting strong platelet activation, signaling, reactive oxygen species generation, adhesion, spreading, aggregation, and thrombus formation in vitro and in vivo. Mechanistically, the platelet-specific receptor glycoprotein VI (GPVI) mediates these platelet-activating effects. Notably, platelets from GPVI function-deficient patients do not exhibit binding of PS-modified oligonucleotides, and platelet activation is fully abolished. Our data demonstrate a novel, unexpected, PS backbone-dependent, platelet-activating effect of nucleotide-based drug candidates mediated by GPVI. This unforeseen effect should be considered in the ongoing development programs for the broad range of upcoming and promising DNA/RNA therapeutics.

Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on transatlantic flight routes and clear-air turbulence

The variation of wind-optimal transatlantic flight routes and their turbulence potential is investigated to understand how upper-level winds and large-scale flow patterns can affect the efficiency and safety of long-haul flights. In this study, the wind-optimal routes (WORs) that minimize the total flight time by considering wind variations are modeled for flights between John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK) in New York, New York, and Heathrow Airport (LHR) in London, United Kingdom, during two distinct winter periods of abnormally high and low phases of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) teleconnection patterns. Eastbound WORs approximate the JFK–LHR great circle (GC) route following northerly shifted jets in the +NAO period. Those WORs deviate southward following southerly shifted jets during the −NAO period, because eastbound WORs fly closely to the prevailing westerly jets to maximize tailwinds. Westbound WORs, however, spread meridionally to avoid the jets near the GC in the +NAO period to minimize headwinds. In the −NAO period, westbound WORs are north of the GC because of the southerly shifted jets. Consequently, eastbound WORs are faster but have higher probabilities of encountering clear-air turbulence than westbound ones, because eastbound WORs are close to the jet streams, especially near the cyclonic shear side of the jets in the northern (southern) part of the GC in the +NAO (−NAO) period. This study suggests how predicted teleconnection weather patterns can be used for long-haul strategic flight planning, ultimately contributing to minimizing aviation’s impact on the environment

Predictability of the Arctic sea ice edge

Skillful sea ice forecasts from days to years ahead are becoming increasingly important for the operation and planning of human activities in the Arctic. Here we analyze the potential predictability of the Arctic sea ice edge in six climate models. We introduce the integrated ice-edge error (IIEE), a user-relevant verification metric defined as the area where the forecast and the “truth” disagree on the ice concentration being above or below 15%. The IIEE lends itself to decomposition into an absolute extent error, corresponding to the common sea ice extent error, and a misplacement error. We find that the often-neglected misplacement error makes up more than half of the climatological IIEE. In idealized forecast ensembles initialized on 1 July, the IIEE grows faster than the absolute extent error. This means that the Arctic sea ice edge is less predictable than sea ice extent, particularly in September, with implications for the potential skill of end-user relevant forecasts.

Advancing polar prediction capabilities on daily to seasonal time scales

It is argued that existing polar prediction systems do not yet meet users’ needs; and possible ways forward in advancing prediction capacity in polar regions and beyond are outlined. The polar regions have been attracting more and more attention in recent years, fuelled by the perceptible impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Polar climate change provides new opportunities, such as shorter shipping routes between Europe and East Asia, but also new risks such as the potential for industrial accidents or emergencies in ice-covered seas. Here, it is argued that environmental prediction systems for the polar regions are less developed than elsewhere. There are many reasons for this situation, including the polar regions being (historically) lower priority, with less in situ observations, and with numerous local physical processes that are less well-represented by models. By contrasting the relative importance of different physical processes in polar and lower latitudes, the need for a dedicated polar prediction effort is illustrated. Research priorities are identified that will help to advance environmental polar prediction capabilities. Examples include an improvement of the polar observing system; the use of coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean models, even for short-term prediction; and insight into polar-lower latitude linkages and their role for forecasting. Given the enormity of some of the challenges ahead, in a harsh and remote environment such as the polar regions, it is argued that rapid progress will only be possible with a coordinated international effort. More specifically, it is proposed to hold a Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) from mid-2017 to mid-2019 in which the international research and operational forecasting community will work together with stakeholders in a period of intensive observing, modelling, prediction, verification, user-engagement and educational activities.

Stromal-derived factor-1 alpha (CXCL12) levels increase in periodontal disease

Background: The CXC chemokine receptor 4 (CXCR4) and its ligand, stromal cell-derived factor-1 (SDF-1 alpha or CXC chemokine ligand 12) are involved in the trafficking of leukocytes into and out of extravascular tissues. The purpose of this study was to determine whether SDF-1 alpha secreted by host cells plays a role in recruiting inflammatory cells into the periodontia during local inflammation. Methods: SDF-1 alpha levels were determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in gingival crevicular fluid (GCF) of 24 individuals with periodontitis versus healthy individuals in tissue biopsies and in a preclinical rat model of Porphyromonas gingivalis lipopolysaccharide-induced experimental bone loss. Neutrophil chemotaxis assays were also used to evaluate whether SDF-1 alpha plays a role in the recruitment of host cells at periodontal lesions. Results: Subjects with periodontal disease had higher levels of SDF-1 alpha in their GCF compared to healthy subjects. Subjects with periodontal disease who underwent mechanical therapy demonstrated decreased levels of SDF-1 alpha. Immunohistologic staining showed that SDF-1 alpha and CXCR4 levels were elevated in samples obtained from periodontally compromised individuals. Similar results were observed in the rodent model. Neutrophil migration was enhanced in the presence of SDF-1 alpha, mimicking immune cell migration in periodontal lesions. Conclusions: SDF-1 alpha may be involved in the immune defense pathway activated during periodontal disease. Upon the development of diseased tissues, SDF-1 alpha levels increase and may recruit host defensive cells into sites of inflammation. These studies suggest that SDF-1 alpha may be a useful biomarker for the identification of periodontal disease progression.

Vision in click beetles (Coleoptera: Elateridae): pigments and spectral correspondence between visual sensitivity and species bioluminescence emission

Among lampyrids, intraspecific sexual communication is facilitated by spectral correspondence between visual sensitivity and bioluminescence emission from the single lantern in the tail. Could a similar strategy be utilized by the elaterids (click beetles), which have one ventral abdominal and two dorsal prothoracic lanterns? Spectral sensitivity [S(lambda)] and bioluminescence were investigated in four Brazilian click beetle species Fulgeochlizus bruchii, Pyrearinus termitilluminans, Pyrophorus punctatissimus and P. divergens, representing three genera. In addition, in situ microspectrophotometric absorption spectra were obtained for visual and screening pigments in P. punctatissimus and P. divergens species. In all species, the electroretinographic S(lambda) functions showed broad peaks in the green with a shoulder in the near-ultraviolet, suggesting the presence of short- and long-wavelength receptors in the compound eyes. The long-wavelength receptor in Pyrophorus species is mediated by a P540 rhodopsin in conjunction with a species-specific screening pigment. A correspondence was found between green to yellow bioluminescence emissions and its broad S(lambda) maximum in each of the four species. It is hypothesized that in elaterids, bioluminescence of the abdominal lantern is an optical signal for intraspecifc sexual communication, while the signals from the prothoracic lanterns serve to warn predators and may also provide illumination in flight.

Methylmercury localization in Danio rerio retina after trophic and subchronic exposure: A basis for neurotoxicology

Methylmercury is a known neurotoxic organometal which affects visual functions and few studies concerns to wild fish are available. The autometallography mercury distribution in the retina of Danio rerio was mapped using light and electron microscopy. Abundant mercury deposits were found in the photoreceptor layer (outer and inner segments of the photoreceptors) and in the inner and outer nuclear layers. Occasionally, the presence of mercury deposits in plexiform layers was observed and very rarely in the ganglion cell layer. Also the occurrence of mercury deposits in cells from the disc region was observed, but not in the nerve fiber layer. An interesting difference was found between mercury accumulation in the central and peripheral regions of the retina. These results demonstrate that mercury after trophic exposure to Danio rerio is able to cross the blood-retina barrier and accumulate in the cells of the retina even under subchronic exposure. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Att tala i urbilder : En studie av Kerstin Ekmans triologi Vargskinnet

Syftet med uppsatsen är att undersöka intertextualitet och arketypiska mönster i Kerstin Ekmans Vargskinnet. En romantrilogi bestående av Guds barmhärtighet, Sista rompan och Skraplotter. För att uppnå studiens syfte utreds hur intertexter förekommer och inverkar på trilogin. Dessutom prövas ifall de arketypiska mönster som Annis Pratt funnit i sin omfattande studie av kvinnlig fiktion, också förekommer i Vargskinnet. Slutligen analyseras existensen av arketypen mandala i Skraplotter. Det är Michail Bachtin, Carl Gustav Jung och Annis Pratt som i stort står för den teoretiska plattform som undersökningen utgår från. Det som studien visar är att de många intertextuella inslagen hjälper till att skapa en rik dialogicitet i texten. Vidare så förekommer Annis Pratts arketypiska mönster också i Ekmans romantrilogi. Ett av dessa arketypiska mönster behandlar den kvinnliga individuationprocessen, som hjältinnan i Skraplotter till fullo genomgår. I romanen finns även arketypen självet representerad i form av mandalasymboler.

Understanding Foreign Masters : the examples of Rabindranath Tagore and Fyodor Dostoyevskiy

The Indian author Rabindranath Tagore was received like royalty during his visits to the West after winning the Nobel Prize in 1913. Dreams of foreign cultures offered a retreat from a complicated age. In a time when the West appeared to be living under threat of disintegration and when industrialism seemed like a cul-de-sac, he appeared to offer the promise of a return to a lost paradise, a spiritual abode that is superior to the restless Western culture. However, Tagore’s popularity faded rapidly, most notably in England, the main target of his criticism. Soon after Tagore had won the Nobel Prize, the English became indignant at Tagore’s anti-colonial attitude.Tagore visited Sweden in 1921 and 1926 and was given a warm reception. His visits to Sweden can be seen as an episode in a longer chain of events. It brought to life old conceptions of India as the abode of spirituality on earth. Nevertheless, interest in him was a relatively short-lived phenomenon in Sweden. Only a few of his admirers in Sweden appreciated the complexity of Tagore’s achievements. His “anathema of mammonism”, as a Swedish newspaper called it, was not properly received. After a steady stream of translations his popularity flagged towards the end of the 1920s and then almost disappeared entirely. Tagores visits in Sweden gave an indication that India was on the way to liberate itself from its colonial legacy, which consequently contributed to the waning of his popularity in the West. In the long run, his criticism of the drawbacks in the western world became too obvious to maintain permanent interest. The Russian author Fyodor Dostoyevskiy’s Crime and Punishment (1866) has enticed numerous interpretations such as the purely biographical approach. In the nervous main character of the novel, the young student Raskolnikov, one easily recognizes Dostoyevskiy himself. The novel can also be seen as a masterpiece of realistic fiction. It gives a broad picture of Saint Petersburg, a metropolis in decay. Crime and Punishment can also be seen as one of the first examples of a modern psychological novel, since it is focused on the inner drama of its main character, the young student Raskolnikov. His actions seem to be governed by mere coincidences, dreams and the spur of the moment. it seems fruitful to study the novel from a psychoanalytical approach. In his book Raskolnikov: the way of the divided towards unity in Crime and Punishment (1982), a Swedish scholar, Owe Wikström, has followed this line of interpretation all the way to Freud’s disciple C G Jung. In addition to this, the novel functions as an exciting crime story. To a large extent it is Viktor Sjklovskij and other Russian formalists from the 1920s and onwards who have taught the western audience to understand the specific nature of the crime story. The novel could be seen as a story about religious conversion. Like Lasarus in the Bible (whose story attracts a lot of attention in the novel) Raskolnikov is awakened from the dead, and together with Sonja he starts a completely new life. The theme of conversion has a special meaning for Dostoyevskiy. For him the conversion meant an acknowledgement of the specific nature of Russia itself. Crime and punishment mirrors the conflict between traditional Russian values and western influences that has been obvious in Russia throughout the history of the country. The novel reflects a dialogue that still continues in Russian society. The Russian literary historian Mikhail Bakhtin, who is probably the most famous interpreter of the works of Dostoyevskiy, has become famous precisely by emphasizing the importance of dialogues in novels like Crime and Punishment. According to Bakhtin, this novel is characterized by its multitude of voices. Various ideas are confronted with each other, and each one of them is personified by one of the characters in the novel. The author has resigned from his position as the superior monitor of the text, and he leaves it to the reader to decide what interpretation is the correct one..The aim of the present study is thus to analyze the complex reactions in the west to Tagore’s visits in Sweden and to Fyodor Dostoyevskiys novel Crime and Punishment.. This leads to more general conclusions on communication between cultures.