999 resultados para Joint conditional distributions


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Bridge expansion joints, if not properly designed, constructed, and maintained, often lead to the deterioration of critical substructure elements. Strip seal expansion joints consisting of a steel extrusion and neoprene gland are one type of expansion joint and are commonly used by the Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT). Strip seal expansion joints are susceptible to tears and pull outs that allow water, chlorides, and debris to infiltrate the joint, and subsequently the bearings below. One area of the strip seal that is particularly problematic is where it terminates at the interface between the deck and the barrier rail. The Iowa DOT has noted that the initial construction quality of the current strip seal termination detail is not satisfactory, nor ideal, and a need exists for re-evaluation and possibly re-design of this detail. Desirable qualities of a strip seal termination detail provide a seal that is simple and fast to construct, facilitate quick gland removal and installation, and provide a reliable, durable barrier to prevent chloride-contaminated water from reaching the substructure. To meet the objectives of this research project, several strip seal termination details were evaluated in the laboratory. Alternate termination details may not only function better than the current Iowa DOT standard, but are also less complicated to construct, facilitating better quality control. However, uncertainties still exist regarding the long-term effects of using straight-through details, with or without the dogleg, that could not be answered in the laboratory in the short time frame of the research project.

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Data characteristics and species traits are expected to influence the accuracy with which species' distributions can be modeled and predicted. We compare 10 modeling techniques in terms of predictive power and sensitivity to location error, change in map resolution, and sample size, and assess whether some species traits can explain variation in model performance. We focused on 30 native tree species in Switzerland and used presence-only data to model current distribution, which we evaluated against independent presence-absence data. While there are important differences between the predictive performance of modeling methods, the variance in model performance is greater among species than among techniques. Within the range of data perturbations in this study, some extrinsic parameters of data affect model performance more than others: location error and sample size reduced performance of many techniques, whereas grain had little effect on most techniques. No technique can rescue species that are difficult to predict. The predictive power of species-distribution models can partly be predicted from a series of species characteristics and traits based on growth rate, elevational distribution range, and maximum elevation. Slow-growing species or species with narrow and specialized niches tend to be better modeled. The Swiss presence-only tree data produce models that are reliable enough to be useful in planning and management applications.

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Natural selection may favor two very different types of social behaviors that have costs in vital rates (fecundity and/or survival) to the actor: helping behaviors, which increase the vital rates of recipients, and harming behaviors, which reduce the vital rates of recipients. Although social evolutionary theory has mainly dealt with helping behaviors, competition for limited resources creates ecological conditions in which an actor may benefit from expressing behaviors that reduce the vital rates of neighbors. This may occur if the reduction in vital rates decreases the intensity of competition experienced by the actor or that experienced by its offspring. Here, we explore the joint evolution of neutral recognition markers and marker-based costly conditional harming whereby actors express harming, conditional on actor and recipient bearing different conspicuous markers. We do so for two complementary demographic scenarios: finite panmictic and infinite structured populations. We find that marker-based conditional harming can evolve under a large range of recombination rates and group sizes under both finite panmictic and infinite structured populations. A direct comparison with results for the evolution of marker-based conditional helping reveals that, if everything else is equal, marker-based conditional harming is often more likely to evolve than marker-based conditional helping.

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Abstract

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A cross-over controlled administration study of smoked cannabis was carried out on occasional and heavy smokers. The participants smoked a joint (11 % Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC)) or a matching placebo on two different occasions. Whole blood (WB) and oral fluid (OF) samples were collected before and up to 3.5 h after smoking the joints. Pharmacokinetic analyses were obtained from these data. Questionnaires assessing the subjective effects were administered to the subjects during each session before and after the smoking time period. THC, 11-hydroxy-THC (11-OH-THC) and 11-nor-9-carboxy-THC (THCCOOH) were analyzed in the blood by gas chromatography or liquid chromatography (LC)-tandem mass spectrometry (MS/MS). The determination of THC, THCCOOH, cannabinol (CBN), and Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinolic acid A (THC-A) was carried out on OF only using LC-MS/MS. In line with the widely accepted assumption that cannabis smoking results in a strong contamination of the oral cavity, we found that THC, and also THC-A, shows a sharp, high concentration peak just after smoking, with a rapid decrease in these levels within 3 h. No obvious differences were found between both groups concerning THC median maximum concentrations measured either in blood or in OF; these levels were equal to 1,338 and 1,041 μg/L in OF and to 82 and 94 μg/L in WB for occasional and heavy smokers, respectively. The initial WB THCCOOH concentration was much higher in regular smokers than in occasional users. Compared with the occasional smokers, the sensation of confusion felt by the regular smokers was much less while the feeling of intoxication remained almost unchanged.

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Control of a chaotic system by homogeneous nonlinear driving, when a conditional Lyapunov exponent is zero, may give rise to special and interesting synchronizationlike behaviors in which the response evolves in perfect correlation with the drive. Among them, there are the amplification of the drive attractor and the shift of it to a different region of phase space. In this paper, these synchronizationlike behaviors are discussed, and demonstrated by computer simulation of the Lorentz model [E. N. Lorenz, J. Atmos. Sci. 20 130 (1963)] and the double scroll [T. Matsumoto, L. O. Chua, and M. Komuro, IEEE Trans. CAS CAS-32, 798 (1985)].

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The usefulness of species distribution models (SDMs) in predicting impacts of climate change on biodiversity is difficult to assess because changes in species ranges may take decades or centuries to occur. One alternative way to evaluate the predictive ability of SDMs across time is to compare their predictions with data on past species distributions. We use data on plant distributions, fossil pollen and current and mid-Holocene climate to test the ability of SDMs to predict past climate-change impacts. We find that species showing little change in the estimated position of their realized niche, with resulting good model performance, tend to be dominant competitors for light. Different mechanisms appear to be responsible for among-species differences in model performance. Confidence in predictions of the impacts of climate change could be improved by selecting species with characteristics that suggest little change is expected in the relationships between species occurrence and climate patterns.

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This paper presents a Bayesian approach to the design of transmit prefiltering matrices in closed-loop schemes robust to channel estimation errors. The algorithms are derived for a multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) system. Two different optimizationcriteria are analyzed: the minimization of the mean square error and the minimization of the bit error rate. In both cases, the transmitter design is based on the singular value decomposition (SVD) of the conditional mean of the channel response, given the channel estimate. The performance of the proposed algorithms is analyzed,and their relationship with existing algorithms is indicated. As withother previously proposed solutions, the minimum bit error rate algorithmconverges to the open-loop transmission scheme for very poor CSI estimates.

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Broadcast transmission mode in ad hoc networks is critical to manage multihop routing or providing medium accesscontrol (MAC)-layer fairness. In this paper, it is shown that ahigher capacity to exchange information among neighbors may beobtained through a physical-MAC cross-layer design of the broadcastprotocol exploiting signal separation principles. Coherentdetection and separation of contending nodes is possible throughtraining sequences which are selected at random from a reducedset. Guidelines for the design of this set are derived for a lowimpact on the network performance and the receiver complexity.

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This paper is concerned with the derivation of new estimators and performance bounds for the problem of timing estimation of (linearly) digitally modulated signals. The conditional maximum likelihood (CML) method is adopted, in contrast to the classical low-SNR unconditional ML (UML) formulationthat is systematically applied in the literature for the derivationof non-data-aided (NDA) timing-error-detectors (TEDs). A new CML TED is derived and proved to be self-noise free, in contrast to the conventional low-SNR-UML TED. In addition, the paper provides a derivation of the conditional Cramér–Rao Bound (CRB ), which is higher (less optimistic) than the modified CRB (MCRB)[which is only reached by decision-directed (DD) methods]. It is shown that the CRB is a lower bound on the asymptotic statisticalaccuracy of the set of consistent estimators that are quadratic with respect to the received signal. Although the obtained boundis not general, it applies to most NDA synchronizers proposed in the literature. A closed-form expression of the conditional CRBis obtained, and numerical results confirm that the CML TED attains the new bound for moderate to high Eg/No.

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The well-known structure of an array combiner along with a maximum likelihood sequence estimator (MLSE) receiveris the basis for the derivation of a space-time processor presentinggood properties in terms of co-channel and intersymbol interferencerejection. The use of spatial diversity at the receiver front-endtogether with a scalar MLSE implies a joint design of the spatialcombiner and the impulse response for the sequence detector. Thisis faced using the MMSE criterion under the constraint that thedesired user signal power is not cancelled, yielding an impulse responsefor the sequence detector that is matched to the channel andcombiner response. The procedure maximizes the signal-to-noiseratio at the input of the detector and exhibits excellent performancein realistic multipath channels.

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We propose new methods for evaluating predictive densities that focus on the models' actual predictive ability in finite samples. The tests offer a simple way of evaluatingthe correct specification of predictive densities, either parametric or non-parametric.The results indicate that our tests are well sized and have good power in detecting mis-specification in predictive densities. An empirical application to the Survey ofProfessional Forecasters and a baseline Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium modelshows the usefulness of our methodology.

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1. Biogeographical models of species' distributions are essential tools for assessing impacts of changing environmental conditions on natural communities and ecosystems. Practitioners need more reliable predictions to integrate into conservation planning (e.g. reserve design and management). 2. Most models still largely ignore or inappropriately take into account important features of species' distributions, such as spatial autocorrelation, dispersal and migration, biotic and environmental interactions. Whether distributions of natural communities or ecosystems are better modelled by assembling individual species' predictions in a bottom-up approach or modelled as collective entities is another important issue. An international workshop was organized to address these issues. 3. We discuss more specifically six issues in a methodological framework for generalized regression: (i) links with ecological theory; (ii) optimal use of existing data and artificially generated data; (iii) incorporating spatial context; (iv) integrating ecological and environmental interactions; (v) assessing prediction errors and uncertainties; and (vi) predicting distributions of communities or collective properties of biodiversity. 4. Synthesis and applications. Better predictions of the effects of impacts on biological communities and ecosystems can emerge only from more robust species' distribution models and better documentation of the uncertainty associated with these models. An improved understanding of causes of species' distributions, especially at their range limits, as well as of ecological assembly rules and ecosystem functioning, is necessary if further progress is to be made. A better collaborative effort between theoretical and functional ecologists, ecological modellers and statisticians is required to reach these goals.

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