Probabilistic models for the prediction of a ship performance in dynamic ice

We introduce two probabilistic, data-driven models that predict a ship's speed and the situations where a ship is probable to get stuck in ice based on the joint effect of ice features such as the thickness and concentration of level ice, ice ridges, rafted ice, moreover ice compression is considered. To develop the models to datasets were utilized. First, the data from the Automatic Identification System about the performance of a selected ship was used. Second, a numerical ice model HELMI, developed in the Finnish Meteorological Institute, provided information about the ice field. The relations between the ice conditions and ship movements were established using Bayesian learning algorithms. The case study presented in this paper considers a single and unassisted trip of an ice-strengthened bulk carrier between two Finnish ports in the presence of challenging ice conditions, which varied in time and space. The obtained results show good prediction power of the models. This means, on average 80% for predicting the ship's speed within specified bins, and above 90% for predicting cases where a ship may get stuck in ice. We expect this new approach to facilitate the safe and effective route selection problem for ice-covered waters where the ship performance is reflected in the objective function.

Foraminiferal assemblages of the Mackenzie-Beaufort Sea Slope and Amundsen Gulf

Two cores, one from the Beaufort Sea Slope at 1000 m water depth (core 750) and one from the Amundsen Gulf at 426 m (core 124), were collected to help determine paleo-ice cover in the Holocene and late glacial of this area. Site 750 is particularly sensitive to changes in paleo-ice cover because it rests beneath the present ice margin of the permanent Arctic ice pack. Core 124 was sampled just in front of the former glacier that moved out into the Amundsen Gulf and started to recede about 13 ka B.P. Both cores have a strong occurrence of calcareous foraminifera in the upper few centimeters, but these disappear throughout most of the Holocene, suggesting more open water in that time period than present. In the sediments representing the end of the last glacial period (dated at ~11,500-14,000 calibrated years B.P. (cal B.P.)) a calcareous fauna with an abundant planktic foraminiferal fauna suggests a return to almost permanent ice cover, much like the central Arctic today. Together with the foraminifera there was also abundant ice-rafted debris (IRD) in both cores between 12,000 cal B.P. and ~14,000 cal B.P., but those units are of different ages between cores, suggesting different events. The IRD in both cores appears to have the same magnetic and chemical signals, but their origins cannot be determined exactly until clay mineralogy is completed. There is abundant organic debris in both cores below the IRD units: the organics in core 750 are very diffuse and not visually identifiable, but the organic material in core 124 is clearly identifiable with terrestrial root fragments; these are 14C dated at over 37,000 years B.P. This is a marine unit as it also has glacial front foraminifera in the sediment with the organic debris that must have been originating from subglacial streams. The seismic and multibeam data both indicate glaciers did not cross the core 124 site.

Avian species identity and predation success in tropical cacao agroforestry of the Napu Valley in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia

Avian ecosystem services such as the suppression of pests are considered being of high ecological and economic importance in a range of ecosystems, especially in tropical agroforestry. But how bird predation success is related to the diversity and composition of the bird community, as well as local and landscape factors, is poorly understood. The author quantified arthropod predation in relation to the identity and diversity of insectivorous birds, using experimental exposure of artificial, caterpillar-like prey on smallholder cacao agroforestry systems, differing in local shade management and distance to primary forest. The bird community was assessed using both mist netting (targeting on active understory insectivores) and point count (higher completeness of species inventories) sampling. The study was conducted in a land use dominated area in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, adjacent to the Lore Lindu National Park. We selected 15 smallholder cacao plantations as sites for bird and bat exclosure experiments in March 2010. Until July 2011, we recorded several data in this study area, including the bird community data, cacao tree data and bird predation experiments that are presented here. We found that avian predation success can be driven by single and abundant insectivorous species, rather than by overall bird species richness. Forest proximity was important for enhancing the density of this key species, but did also promote bird species richness. The availability of local shade trees had no effects on the local bird community or avian predation success. Our findings are both of economical as well as ecological interest because the conservation of nearby forest remnants will likely benefit human needs and biodiversity conservation alike.

TEX86 values and temperature estimation for sediment trap samples

The newly introduced temperature proxy, the tetraether index of archaeal lipids with 86 carbon atoms (TEX86), is based on the number of cyclopentane moieties in the glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether (GDGT) lipids of marine Crenarchaeota. The composition of sedimentary GDGTs used for TEX86 paleothermometry is thought to reflect sea surface temperature (SST). However, marine Crenarchaeota occur ubiquitously in the world oceans over the entire depth range and not just in surface waters. We analyzed the GDGT distribution in settling particulate organic matter collected in sediment traps from the northeastern Pacific Ocean and the Arabian Sea to investigate the seasonal and spatial distribution of the fluxes of crenarchaeotal GDGTs and the origin of the TEX86 signal transported to the sediment. In both settings the TEX86 measured at all trap deployment depths reflects SST. In the Arabian Sea, analysis of an annual time series showed that the SST estimate based on TEX86 in the shallowest trap at 500 m followed the in situ SST with a 1 to 3 week time delay, likely caused by the relatively low settling speed of sinking particles. This revealed that the GDGT signal that reaches deeper water is derived from the upper water column rather than in situ production of GDGTs. The GDGT temperature signal in deeper traps at 1500 m and 3000 m did not show a seasonal cyclicity observed in the 500 m trap but rather reflected the annual mean SST. This is probably due to a homogenization of the TEX86 SST signal carried by particles as they ultimately reach the interior of the ocean. Our data confirm the use of TEX86 as a temperature proxy of surface ocean waters.

Geochemistry of tephra layers in ODP Site 121-758

A tephrochronology of the past 5 Ma is constructed with ash layers recovered from Neogene sediments during drilling at ODP Leg 121 Site 758 on northern Ninetyeast Ridge. The several hundred tephra layers observed in the first 80 m of cores range in thickness from a few millimeters to 34 cm. Seventeen tephra layers, at least 1 cm thick, were sampled and analyzed for major elements. Relative ages for the ash layers are estimated from the paleomagnetic and d18O chronostratigraphy. The ash layers comprise about 1.7% by volume of the sediments recovered in the first 72 m. The median grain size of the ashes is about 75 ?m, with a maximum of 150 ?m. The ash consists of rhyolitic bubble junction and pumice glass shards. Blocky and platy shards are in even proportion (10%-30%) and are dominated by bubble wall shards (70%-90%). The crystal content of the layers is always less than 2%, with Plagioclase and alkali feldspar present in nearly every layer. Biotite was observed only in the thickest layers. The major element compositions of glass and feldspar reflect fractionation trends. Three groupings of ash layers suggest different provenances with distinct magmatic systems. Dating by d18O and paleomagnetic reversals suggests major marine ash-layer-producing eruptions (marine tephra layers > 1 cm in thickness) occur roughly every approximately 414,000 yr. This value correlates well with landbased studies and dates of Pleistocene Sumatran tuffs (average 375,000-yr eruptive interval). Residence times of the magmatic systems defined by geochemical trends are 1.583, 2.524, and 1.399 Ma. The longest time interval starts with the least differentiated magma. The Sunda Arc, specifically Sumatra, is inferred to be the source region for the ashes. Four of the youngest five ash layers recovered correlate in time and in major element chemistry to ashes observed on land at the Toba caldera.

Total organic carbon, delta13C, biomarker, diatom distributions in sediment core JM11-FI-19PC

In the light of rapidly diminishing sea ice cover in the Arctic during the present atmospheric warming, it is imperative to study the distribution of sea ice in the past in relation to rapid climate change. Here we focus on glacial millennial scale climatic events (Dansgaard/Oeschger events) using the new sea ice proxy IP25 in combination with phytoplankton proxy data and quantification of diatom species in a record from the SE Norwegian Sea. We demonstrate that expansion and retreat of sea ice varied consistently in pace with the rapid climate changes 90 ka to present, and with this present the first IP25 sea ice proxy record resolving the D/O cyclicity going back in time into Marine Isotope Stage 5a. Sea ice retreated abruptly at the start of warm interstadials, but spread rapidly during the cooling phase of the interstadials and became near-perennial and perennial during cold stadials and Heinrich events, respectively. Low salinity surface water and the sea ice edge spread to the Greenland-Scotland Ridge, and during the largest Heinrich events, probably far into the Atlantic Ocean.

Wave Statistics and Space-time Extremes via Stereo Imaging

We present an analysis of the space-time dynamics of oceanic sea states exploiting stereo imaging techniques. In particular, a novel Wave Acquisition Stereo System (WASS) has been developed and deployed at the oceanographic tower Acqua Alta in the Northern Adriatic Sea, off the Venice coast in Italy. The analysis of WASS video measurements yields accurate estimates of the oceanic sea state dynamics, the associated directional spectra and wave surface statistics that agree well with theoretical models. Finally, we show that a space-time extreme, defined as the expected largest surface wave height over an area, is considerably larger than the maximum crest observed in time at a point, in agreement with theoretical predictions.

Thermodynamical Phase Noise in Oscillators Based on L-C Resonators

Using a new Admittance-based model for electrical noise able to handle Fluctuations and Dissipations of electrical energy, we explain the phase noise of oscillators that use feedback around L-C resonators. We show that Fluctuations produce the Line Broadening of their output spectrum around its mean frequency f0 and that the Pedestal of phase noise far from f0 comes from Dissipations modified by the feedback electronics. The charge noise power 4FkT/R C2/s that disturbs the otherwise periodic fluctuation of charge these oscillators aim to sustain in their L-C-R resonator, is what creates their phase noise proportional to Leeson’s noise figure F and to the charge noise power 4kT/R C2/s of their capacitance C that today’s modelling would consider as the current noise density in A2/Hz of their resistance R. Linked with this (A2/Hz?C2/s) equivalence, R becomes a random series in time of discrete chances to Dissipate energy in Thermal Equilibrium (TE) giving a similar series of discrete Conversions of electrical energy into heat when the resonator is out of TE due to the Signal power it handles. Therefore, phase noise reflects the way oscillators sense thermal exchanges of energy with their environment.

Thermodynamical Phase Noise in Oscillators Based on L-C Resonators (Foundations)

Using a new Admittance-based model for electrical noise able to handle Fluctuations and Dissipations of electrical energy, we explain the phase noise of oscillators that use feedback around L-C resonators. We show that Fluctuations produce the Line Broadening of their output spectrum around its mean frequency f0 and that the Pedestal of phase noise far from f0 comes from Dissipations modified by the feedback electronics. The charge noise power 4FkT/R C2/s that disturbs the otherwise periodic fluctuation of charge these oscillators aim to sustain in their L-C-R resonator, is what creates their phase noise proportional to Leeson’s noise figure F and to the charge noise power 4kT/R C2/s of their capacitance C that today’s modelling would consider as the current noise density in A2/Hz of their resistance R. Linked with this (A2/Hz?C2/s) equivalence, R becomes a random series in time of discrete chances to Dissipate energy in Thermal Equilibrium (TE) giving a similar series of discrete Conversions of electrical energy into heat when the resonator is out of TE due to the Signal power it handles. Therefore, phase noise reflects the way oscillators sense thermal exchanges of energy with their environment

Bloche-Maxwell treatment of amplification of high harmonic seed in soft x-ray laser amplifiers in both direct and chirped amplifications

Seeding plasma-based softx-raylaser (SXRL) demonstrated diffraction-limited, fully coherent in space and in time beam but with energy not exceeding 1 μJ per pulse. Quasi-steady-state (QSS) plasmas demonstrated to be able to store high amount of energy and then amplify incoherent SXRL up to several mJ. Using 1D time-dependant Bloch–Maxwell model including amplification of noise, we demonstrated that femtosecond HHG cannot be efficiently amplified in QSS plasmas. However, using Chirped Pulse Amplification concept on HHG seed allows to extract most of the stored energy, reaching up to 5 mJ in fully coherent pulses that can be compressed down to 130 fs.

Revisiting the Classics to recover the Physical Sense in electrical noise

This paper shows a physically cogent model for electrical noise in resistors that has been obtained from Thermodynamical reasons. This new model derived from the works of Johnson and Nyquist also agrees with the Quantum model for noisy systems handled by Callen and Welton in 1951, thus unifying these two Physical viewpoints. This new model is a Complex or 2-D noise model based on an Admittance that considers both Fluctuation and Dissipation of electrical energy to excel the Real or 1-D model in use that only considers Dissipation. By the two orthogonal currents linked with a common voltage noise by an Admittance function, the new model is shown in frequency domain. Its use in time domain allows to see the pitfall behind a paradox of Statistical Mechanics about systems considered as energy-conserving and deterministic on the microscale that are dissipative and unpredictable on the macroscale and also shows how to use properly the Fluctuation-Dissipation Theorem.

Image Processing Challenges in the Creation of Spatiotemporal Gene Expression Atlases of Developing Embryos

To properly understand and model animal embryogenesis it is crucial to obtain detailed measurements, both in time and space, about their gene expression domains and cell dynamics. Such challenge has been confronted in recent years by a surge of atlases which integrate a statistically relevant number of different individuals to get robust, complete information about their spatiotemporal locations of gene patterns. This paper will discuss the fundamental image analysis strategies required to build such models and the most common problems found along the way. We also discuss the main challenges and future goals in the field.

Image Processing Challenges in the Creation of Spatiotemporal Gene Expression Atlases of Developing Embryos

To properly understand and model animal embryogenesis it is crucial to obtain detailed measurements, both in time and space, about their gene expression domains and cell dynamics. Such challenge has been confronted in recent years by a surge of atlases which integrate a statistically relevant number of different individuals to get robust, complete information about their spatiotemporal locations of gene patterns. This paper will discuss the fundamental image analysis strategies required to build such models and the most common problems found along the way. We also discuss the main challenges and future goals in the field.