O uso de modelos ocultos de Markov no estudo do fluxo de rios intermitentes

In this work, we present our understanding about the article of Aksoy [1], which uses Markov chains to model the flow of intermittent rivers. Then, we executed an application of his model in order to generate data for intermittent streamflows, based on a data set of Brazilian streams. After that, we build a hidden Markov model as a proposed new approach to the problem of simulation of such flows. We used the Gamma distribution to simulate the increases and decreases in river flows, along with a two-state Markov chain. The motivation for us to use a hidden Markov model comes from the possibility of obtaining the same information that the Aksoy’s model provides, but using a single tool capable of treating the problem as a whole, and not through multiple independent processes

Retrofit energético em edifícios de interesse histórico estudos de casos - edifícios modernistas em Natal

This paper addresses the theme of retrotif applied to buildings that belong to the modernist architectural production of historical interest located in the urban area of Natal . The overall objective is to identify and harmonize procedures for retrofit and architectural heritage preservation using elements of constructive analysis of expression and Benefit Cost Ratio ( BCR ) parameters established by the National Electric Energy Agency - ANEEL . The hypothesis put forward is that by stimulating the projetual year analysis , retrofit interventions , it is possible to obtain better results with projects RCB addressing the issues of preservation of architectural heritage . For both flow analysis of process solutions and proposals for action of elements and systems that seek to improve the energy performance of the building , restoring or preserving the architectural elements were developed . The proposed interventions undergo performance through computer simulations of systems such as DesignBuilder, Solar and Sun Tool. The energy results were converted to the analysis of RCB parameter and compared to the constructive expression of the project because the prenatal and intervention. From the results , a plot was constructed which results in a comparison between the RCB and the constructive expression of the simulated interventions

Computação em nuvem no governo: caminhos para a formação de uma agenda governamental

This work aims to understand how cloud computing contextualizes the IT government and decision agenda, in the light of the multiple streams model, considering the current status of public IT policies, the dynamics of the agenda setting for the area, the interface between the various institutions, and existing initiatives on the use of cloud computing in government. Therefore, a qualitative study was conducted through interviews with a group of policy makers and the other group consists of IT managers. As analysis technique, this work made use of content analysis and analysis of documents, with some results by word cloud. As regards the main results to overregulation to the area, usually scattered in various agencies of the federal government, which hinders the performance of the managers. Identified a lack of knowledge of standards, government programs, regulations and guidelines. Among these he highlighted a lack of understanding of the TI Maior Program, the lack of effectiveness of the National Broadband Plan in view of the respondents, as well as the influence of Internet Landmark as an element that can jam the advances in the use of computing cloud in the Brazilian government. Also noteworthy is the bureaucratization of the acquisition of goods to IT services, limited, in many cases, technological advances. Regarding the influence of the actors, it was not possible to identify the presence of a political entrepreneur, and it was noticed a lack of political force. Political flow was affected only by changes within the government. Fragmentation was a major factor for the theme of weakening the agenda formation. Information security was questioned by the respondents pointed out that the main limitation coupled with the lack of training of public servants. In terms of benefits, resource economy is highlighted, followed by improving efficiency. Finally, the discussion about cloud computing needs to advance within the public sphere, whereas the international experience is already far advanced, framing cloud computing as a responsible element for the improvement of processes, services and economy of public resources

Estudo de um sistema de frenagem eletromagnética empregando correntes parasitas

This work deals with the analytical, computational and experimental study of phenomena related to the Eddy current induction in low permeability means for embedded electromagnetic braking systems applications. The phenomena of forces generation in opposing to the variation of stationary magnetic flux produced by DC power supplies, set in motion by the application of an external propulsive force are addressed. The study is motivated by search for solving the problem of speed control of PIGs used to verifying and maintaining pipelines, and is led based on the analytical models synthesis, validated by means of computer simulations in Finite Elements environment, provided by engineering support software; and with experimental tests conducted under controlled laboratory conditions. Finally, a damping systems design methodology based on analyzes results conducted throughout the study is presented

Ícones urbanos na cidade de Natal: arquitetura e desenvolvimento urbano na cidade do sol e mar

Natal has come through major changes in the last 150 years, since the actions of city beautification, in the 19th century, until the present day, when such transformations start to have the objective of including the city in the competition for the attraction of the capital flows and consumption, domestically and in a foreign sense. It is thought that the first initiatives aimed at increasing tourism in Natal occurred in the 1960s, however, it became apparent that only from the 1980s was there a significant increase in tourist activities in Natal and the Metropolitan Region, especially on the east coast of the state of Rio Grande do Norte, leading to an expansion of the labour market, the significant increase of foreign investment, territorial changes of great impact and the production of buildings primarily intended for the hotel industry and second residence for European tourists. Since then, the incentives for tourist activity in the state have been maintained and even increased, based on tourism aimed at natural beauties, local cuisine and events, which transformed the tourist activity in one of the main sources of foreign exchange for the city of Natal. In the early 21st century, the construction of high-rise condominiums, monuments (including the designer ones), such as the Parque da Cidade, designed by Oscar Niemeyer, were already established. Also, shopping centers and, in order to host the World Cup, the new football stadium, the Arena das Dunas, among others, which were aimed at local and foreign consumers, especially European, stood out in the city. It is understood that these new buildings, monuments and also renovations and restorations that were deployed in the city of Natal aimed at constructing a new identity for the city, within the process of capitalist development and urban spectacle. It is considered that the monuments and the iconic buildings are attributes of the cities aimed at selling locations as goods, establishing a new urban environment, a new role as cities, which aimed at seeking greater autonomy from the nation-state. In this research, it was sought to analyze the architectural object, that is, buildings and monuments built or restored in Natal and its relevance to the city marketing promoted by the city itself. It was found that, indeed, such buildings and monuments are inserted in contemporary architectural production as a basis for increasing the competitive nature of Natal. In addition, they reveal a capitalist mode of production, supported by public resources, operating in the production of urban space with a view to repeating the hegemonic model of a competitive city

O nascimento de uma política pública: das articulações à formulação do PRONERA

This work aims at reconstructing the formulation process of PRONERA (National Program of Education in Agrarian Reform). A public policy that had its first ideas conceived within social movements and afterwards, made possible by diligences of then government. Therefore, the Program was rendered in a partnership among State, social movement, public institutions, and non-governmental organizations. As a goal, we intend to grasp both what motivated the choice for this proposal as a strategy to face educational problems in rural areas and how the actors, entities involved in this enterprise and the social-political context have influenced its formulation and entry in the governmental agenda as Public Policy. Thus, we reconstruct the history and education policy of and in rural areas. Besides, we seek to understand the context of PRONERA's conception, the factors that have influenced its creation and the actors' performances in the process. It is assumed that under the 1988 Constitution, civil society was provided with legal conditions for the active participation in political process and, consequently, in the public policy-making. We conclude, then, that PRONERA was the result of the crossing of three different flows (problems, solutions and policies) advocated by the Kingdon model. As a result, this analytical repertoire was useful to explain PRONERA’s entry in the government agenda, helping to understand how the chances of this social demand increased with an action from the politic community. It allowed its way in the government agenda as well as its becoming a public policy.

Dinâmicas de reprodução do comércio e os novos papéis urbanos de pequenas cidades norte-rio-grandenses: um olhar a partir das redes associativistas de supermercados

The work presented here aims to make an analysis of the socio-spatial dynamics of associative supermarket chains and their importance in redefining the roles of small urban North Rio Grande cities. The theoretical approach gives priority to business as a city constituent whose understanding allows us to seize the new socio-spatial dynamics of small towns in the face of globalization and which caused changes in the scope of its commercial forms. In this sense, we understand that trade, as an essentially urban activity has a very specific characteristic, with respect to its ability to transform the content and meaning of places. Another important factor in the construction work was the context of changes in the capitalist production system with the advent of flexible production and the determinations of the economic globalization process that brought new ways of organizing trade. The empirical analysis of the research includes two associative supermarket chains, the “Rede 10” and the “Rede Seridó”, bringing together basic elements for understanding the genesis and evolution of this new organizational model of trade in small towns of the state, as well as allowed -In understand the main changes in this segment of commercial activity. The methodology we used literature in books and periodicals, collected mainly secondary data collection with the SEBRAE and the ABRAS and was still a field research where interviews were conducted forwarded along to the associative network managers to supermarkets, owners of associated facilities and with consumers of the surveyed networks .Finally, we conclude that the formation and expansion of associative supermarket chains in the context of small cities potiguares is essentially in a survival alternative traditional small traders, that sharing the associative principles albeit somewhat rigidly guided by the training cooperation networks can not only stay in the market , but to impose as a new agent in the capital of the reproduction process. Thus, the associative supermarket chains in the search for new spaces, particularly within small towns end up promoting new momentum in these cities providing different flows and interconnections with different places, giving new content and urban roles. By taking not only the condition of the place of living, but also the place to reproduce the capital, small towns offer their population better able to make purchases, thus avoiding the mandatory population shifts to other urban centers in order to meet their consumption needs.

Tensoativo derivado do ácido cítrico: síntese e aplicação em fluidos de perfuração de emulsão inversa

This work describes the synthesis and study of the application of a new surfactant (Triester Lipophilic – TEL) obtained by citric acid with octanol. It is reaction was followed by thin layer chromatography (TLC) and after purification the product was characterized by proton and 13 – carbon nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy ( H and 13C NMR), thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) and surface tension analysis of oil-in-water emulsions. The TEL performance as surfactant in ester, n-paraffin and biodiesel based drilling fluids on the 70/30 and 60/40 water- oil rations (WOR) was evaluated by comparative tests of two commercial products used in the fields. These drilling fluids were aged in roller oven at 200 0 F during 16 h. The rheological and electric stability measurements were carried out at 135 ºF, the phase separation was evaluated after seven days at rest and the filtrate volume of drilling fluids was determined at high temperature and high pressure. The rheological behavior of the drilling fluids was evaluated by the flow curves. The results showed that the drilling fluids studied here presented Binghamian behavior as well as the used in the oil fields. The laboratory tests showed that the TEL reduced the filtrate volume and promoted the enhance of the thermal and mechanical stabilities.

Estudo do balanço de umidade por meio de modelos regionais para o clima do passado e do futuro sobre a América do Sul

In the context of climate change over South America (SA) has been observed that the combination of high temperatures and rain more temperatures less rainfall, cause different impacts such as extreme precipitation events, favorable conditions for fires and droughts. As a result, these regions face growing threat of water shortage, local or generalized. Thus, the water availability in Brazil depends largely on the weather and its variations in different time scales. In this sense, the main objective of this research is to study the moisture budget through regional climate models (RCM) from Project Regional Climate Change Assessments for La Plata Basin (CLARIS-LPB) and combine these RCM through two statistical techniques in an attempt to improve prediction on three areas of AS: Amazon (AMZ), Northeast Brazil (NEB) and the Plata Basin (LPB) in past climates (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100). The moisture transport on AS was investigated through the moisture fluxes vertically integrated. The main results showed that the average fluxes of water vapor in the tropics (AMZ and NEB) are higher across the eastern and northern edges, thus indicating that the contributions of the trade winds of the North Atlantic and South are equally important for the entry moisture during the months of JJA and DJF. This configuration was observed in all the models and climates. In comparison climates, it was found that the convergence of the flow of moisture in the past weather was smaller in the future in various regions and seasons. Similarly, the majority of the SPC simulates the future climate, reduced precipitation in tropical regions (AMZ and NEB), and an increase in the LPB region. The second phase of this research was to carry out combination of RCM in more accurately predict precipitation, through the multiple regression techniques for components Main (C.RPC) and convex combination (C.EQM), and then analyze and compare combinations of RCM (ensemble). The results indicated that the combination was better in RPC represent precipitation observed in both climates. Since, in addition to showing values be close to those observed, the technique obtained coefficient of correlation of moderate to strong magnitude in almost every month in different climates and regions, also lower dispersion of data (RMSE). A significant advantage of the combination of methods was the ability to capture extreme events (outliers) for the study regions. In general, it was observed that the wet C.EQM captures more extreme, while C.RPC can capture more extreme dry climates and in the three regions studied.

Energia eólica em alto mar: distribuição dos recursos e complementaridade hídrica

The stabilization of energy supply in Brazil has been a challenge for the operation of the National Interconnected System in face of hydrological and climatic variations. Thermoelectric plants have been used as an emergency source for periods of water scarcity. The utilization of fossil fuels, however, has elevated the cost of electricity. On the other hand, offshore wind energy has gained importance in the international context and is competitive enough to become a possibility for future generation in Brazil. In this scenario, the main goal of this thesis was to investigate the magnitude and distribution of offshore wind resources, and also verify the possibilities of complementing hydropower. A data series of precipitation from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) Blended Sea Winds from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC/NOAA) were used. According to statistical criteria, three types of complementarity were found in the Brazilian territory: hydro × hydro, wind × wind and hydro × wind. It was noted a significant complementarity between wind and hydro resources (r = -0.65), mainly for the hydrographical basins of the southeast and central regions with Northeastern Brazil winds. To refine the extrapolation of winds over the ocean, a method based on the Monin-Obukhov theory was used to model the stability of the atmospheric boundary layer. Objectively Analyzed Air-Sea Flux (OAFLUX) datasets for heat flux, temperature and humidity, and also sea level pressure data from NCEP/NCAR were used. The ETOPO1 from the National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC/NOAA) provided bathymetric data. It was found that shallow waters, between 0-20 meters, have a resource estimated at 559 GW. The contribution of wind resources to hydroelectric reservoir operation was investigated with a simplified hybrid wind-hydraulic model, and reservoir level, inflow, outflow and turbine production data. It was found that the hybrid system avoids drought periods, continuously saving water from reservoirs through wind production. Therefore, from the results obtained, it is possible to state that the good winds from the Brazilian coast can, besides diversifying the electric matrix, stabilize the hydrological fluctuations avoiding rationing and blackouts, reducing the use of thermal power plants, increasing the production cost and emission of greenhouse gases. Public policies targeted to offshore wind energy will be necessary for its full development.

"Vender as carnes": prostituição no litoral norte paraibano

This thesis aims to contribute to reflections on female prostitution in the Paraíba`s North Coast in specific regions of the Baía da Traição and Indian villages Potiguara constant cultural flow region between indigenous and non-indigenous. Within this hemisphere intend to analyze the transits, the body boundaries, sexuality, identity and ethnic category as central to understanding of prostitution practices inaugurate the possibility to study the gender and blurred places, border, mixed. Specifically, I discuss the experience of articulated gender border between urban and rural, indigenous and non-indigenous, to show and hide, visible and not visible. Analyze the social relations among women who prostitute themselves and the community they inhabit, mobility, economic and symbolic exchanges, conflicts and situations of violence, since the social environment is permeated by these dimensions and the way these women includes complex situations and individuals. Analyze the ethnic and flow of people and relationships that are built differently inside and outside the indigenous community, such as women who prostitute themselves build their indigenous and prostitutes identities. Analyze this mobility in prostitution relationships and the reason for this mobility, indigenous women prostitutes avoid this practice in the indigenous area in order to protect their identities because the community is small, there is the fear on the probability of gossip and malaise in the community. However, the region is characterized as a heterogeneous whole, requiring a procedural analysis to cover the whole specificity of these practices in the covered area.

"Vender as carnes": prostituição no litoral norte paraibano

This thesis aims to contribute to reflections on female prostitution in the Paraíba`s North Coast in specific regions of the Baía da Traição and Indian villages Potiguara constant cultural flow region between indigenous and non-indigenous. Within this hemisphere intend to analyze the transits, the body boundaries, sexuality, identity and ethnic category as central to understanding of prostitution practices inaugurate the possibility to study the gender and blurred places, border, mixed. Specifically, I discuss the experience of articulated gender border between urban and rural, indigenous and non-indigenous, to show and hide, visible and not visible. Analyze the social relations among women who prostitute themselves and the community they inhabit, mobility, economic and symbolic exchanges, conflicts and situations of violence, since the social environment is permeated by these dimensions and the way these women includes complex situations and individuals. Analyze the ethnic and flow of people and relationships that are built differently inside and outside the indigenous community, such as women who prostitute themselves build their indigenous and prostitutes identities. Analyze this mobility in prostitution relationships and the reason for this mobility, indigenous women prostitutes avoid this practice in the indigenous area in order to protect their identities because the community is small, there is the fear on the probability of gossip and malaise in the community. However, the region is characterized as a heterogeneous whole, requiring a procedural analysis to cover the whole specificity of these practices in the covered area.

A hora da alfabetização: atores, ideias e instituições na construção do PAIC-CE

The objective of this thesis is to understand how a certain social condition becomes relevant enough to be regarded as an issue worthy of government action and how certain proposed initiatives prevail while others are discarded. More specifically, the goal is to discuss public policy for education and check whether the analytical models employed are significant enough to explain how the literacy issue became part of the policy agenda of the government of the State of Ceará in Brazil, and how the Literacy Program at the Right Age (PAIC) developed over time. From the empirical perspective about public policy for education in Brazil, this is a relevant case when one takes into account that, historically, the literacy policies are focused on teenagers and adults, implying a lack of specific initiatives towards children at the proper age of learning to read and write. In order to understand what drove this issue to the top of the state government agenda, this thesis is primarily based on the literature about public policy analysis, with focus on the agenda setting process and development of proposals. A hybrid approach is used, combining analytical tools from Kingdon’s Multiple Streams Model (1995), the Advocacy Coalition Framework by Sabatier and Jenkins Smith (1993) and the historical new institutionalism lens. The research method is qualitative and based on the single case study method. The data set was assembled from institutional PAIC-related documents, tachygraphy notes from sessions at Ceará’s State House of Representatives, press clippings, academic studies and interviews with key participants from several organizations. The conclusion of this thesis is that, given the complexity of the case in point, the combination of the three analytical methods is adequate and necessary to understanding the multiple drivers for this issue to have entered Ceará’s state government agenda and the design of the PAIC itself. Particularly relevant are the ideas and the policy entrepreneurs, the processes of problem recognition for the composition of a wide coalition and for the specification of alternatives, and the path dependence of the education policy in Ceará. This study adds, as a result, to a better understanding of the stages that make up the agenda setting in public policy, in particular in the field of education.

A hora da alfabetização: atores, ideias e instituições na construção do PAIC-CE

The objective of this thesis is to understand how a certain social condition becomes relevant enough to be regarded as an issue worthy of government action and how certain proposed initiatives prevail while others are discarded. More specifically, the goal is to discuss public policy for education and check whether the analytical models employed are significant enough to explain how the literacy issue became part of the policy agenda of the government of the State of Ceará in Brazil, and how the Literacy Program at the Right Age (PAIC) developed over time. From the empirical perspective about public policy for education in Brazil, this is a relevant case when one takes into account that, historically, the literacy policies are focused on teenagers and adults, implying a lack of specific initiatives towards children at the proper age of learning to read and write. In order to understand what drove this issue to the top of the state government agenda, this thesis is primarily based on the literature about public policy analysis, with focus on the agenda setting process and development of proposals. A hybrid approach is used, combining analytical tools from Kingdon’s Multiple Streams Model (1995), the Advocacy Coalition Framework by Sabatier and Jenkins Smith (1993) and the historical new institutionalism lens. The research method is qualitative and based on the single case study method. The data set was assembled from institutional PAIC-related documents, tachygraphy notes from sessions at Ceará’s State House of Representatives, press clippings, academic studies and interviews with key participants from several organizations. The conclusion of this thesis is that, given the complexity of the case in point, the combination of the three analytical methods is adequate and necessary to understanding the multiple drivers for this issue to have entered Ceará’s state government agenda and the design of the PAIC itself. Particularly relevant are the ideas and the policy entrepreneurs, the processes of problem recognition for the composition of a wide coalition and for the specification of alternatives, and the path dependence of the education policy in Ceará. This study adds, as a result, to a better understanding of the stages that make up the agenda setting in public policy, in particular in the field of education.

Termos de troca, preço das commodities e o crescimento brasileiro : uma análise sob o prisma da restrição externa

This study aims to investigate the relationship between terms of trade and the long-term growth of Brazilian economy, from the perspective of external constraint, between the period 1994 to 2014. For this purpose, it is based on Thirlwall's (1979) original contribution, in order to empirically test the terms of trade contribution for determining the Brazilian growth potential product equivalent with Balance of Payments equilibriun. Using cointegration method, which seeks to analyze the long-term relationship between the variables, and subdividing the period into two sub-periods, 1994-2004 and 2004-2014, we estimate and compare real and hypothetical income elasticities and predicted and observed growth rates, with and without the terms of trade, for each period. The obteined results show that the inclusion of terms of trade in the empirical procedure to test the validity of Thirlwall's Law lead to higher growth rates obtained by the model (hypothetical), for the entire period 1994-2014 and for the sub-period 2004 -2014. This "theoretical" relaxation of the external constraint, caused by the inclusion of the terms of trade in traditional Thirlwall's rule, overestimated the average real growth rate for these periods, while the traditional Thirlwall's Law - without terms of trade - has adapted better to the real behavior of Brazilian economy. Thus, despite having contributed potentially for the relaxation of external constraint on Brazilian growth, the effect of terms of trade may have been offset by the negative performance of other Balance of Payments components, as capital flows and interest, profits and dividends payments abroad.