Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science

Continuing developments in science and technology mean that the amounts of information forensic scientists are able to provide for criminal investigations is ever increasing. The commensurate increase in complexity creates difficulties for scientists and lawyers with regard to evaluation and interpretation, notably with respect to issues of inference and decision. Probability theory, implemented through graphical methods, and specifically Bayesian networks, provides powerful methods to deal with this complexity. Extensions of these methods to elements of decision theory provide further support and assistance to the judicial system. Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science provides a unique and comprehensive introduction to the use of Bayesian decision networks for the evaluation and interpretation of scientific findings in forensic science, and for the support of decision-makers in their scientific and legal tasks. Includes self-contained introductions to probability and decision theory. Develops the characteristics of Bayesian networks, object-oriented Bayesian networks and their extension to decision models. Features implementation of the methodology with reference to commercial and academically available software. Presents standard networks and their extensions that can be easily implemented and that can assist in the reader's own analysis of real cases. Provides a technique for structuring problems and organizing data based on methods and principles of scientific reasoning. Contains a method for the construction of coherent and defensible arguments for the analysis and evaluation of scientific findings and for decisions based on them. Is written in a lucid style, suitable for forensic scientists and lawyers with minimal mathematical background. Includes a foreword by Ian Evett. The clear and accessible style of this second edition makes this book ideal for all forensic scientists, applied statisticians and graduate students wishing to evaluate forensic findings from the perspective of probability and decision analysis. It will also appeal to lawyers and other scientists and professionals interested in the evaluation and interpretation of forensic findings, including decision making based on scientific information.

Estimation of dynamic latent variable models using simulated nonparametric moments

Abstract. Given a model that can be simulated, conditional moments at a trial parameter value can be calculated with high accuracy by applying kernel smoothing methods to a long simulation. With such conditional moments in hand, standard method of moments techniques can be used to estimate the parameter. Because conditional moments are calculated using kernel smoothing rather than simple averaging, it is not necessary that the model be simulable subject to the conditioning information that is used to define the moment conditions. For this reason, the proposed estimator is applicable to general dynamic latent variable models. It is shown that as the number of simulations diverges, the estimator is consistent and a higher-order expansion reveals the stochastic difference between the infeasible GMM estimator based on the same moment conditions and the simulated version. In particular, we show how to adjust standard errors to account for the simulations. Monte Carlo results show how the estimator may be applied to a range of dynamic latent variable (DLV) models, and that it performs well in comparison to several other estimators that have been proposed for DLV models.

Evaluating the influence of spatial uncertainty in locality points for species distributional modeling

1. Species distribution modelling is used increasingly in both applied and theoretical research to predict how species are distributed and to understand attributes of species' environmental requirements. In species distribution modelling, various statistical methods are used that combine species occurrence data with environmental spatial data layers to predict the suitability of any site for that species. While the number of data sharing initiatives involving species' occurrences in the scientific community has increased dramatically over the past few years, various data quality and methodological concerns related to using these data for species distribution modelling have not been addressed adequately. 2. We evaluated how uncertainty in georeferences and associated locational error in occurrences influence species distribution modelling using two treatments: (1) a control treatment where models were calibrated with original, accurate data and (2) an error treatment where data were first degraded spatially to simulate locational error. To incorporate error into the coordinates, we moved each coordinate with a random number drawn from the normal distribution with a mean of zero and a standard deviation of 5 km. We evaluated the influence of error on the performance of 10 commonly used distributional modelling techniques applied to 40 species in four distinct geographical regions. 3. Locational error in occurrences reduced model performance in three of these regions; relatively accurate predictions of species distributions were possible for most species, even with degraded occurrences. Two species distribution modelling techniques, boosted regression trees and maximum entropy, were the best performing models in the face of locational errors. The results obtained with boosted regression trees were only slightly degraded by errors in location, and the results obtained with the maximum entropy approach were not affected by such errors. 4. Synthesis and applications. To use the vast array of occurrence data that exists currently for research and management relating to the geographical ranges of species, modellers need to know the influence of locational error on model quality and whether some modelling techniques are particularly robust to error. We show that certain modelling techniques are particularly robust to a moderate level of locational error and that useful predictions of species distributions can be made even when occurrence data include some error.

Reliable acetabular cup orientation with a new gravity-assisted guidance system.

Acetabular cup orientation is a key factor determining hip stability, and standard mechanical guides have shown little help in improving alignment. An in vitro study was carried out to compare the accuracy and precision of a new gravity-assisted guidance system with a standard mechanical guide. Three hundred ten cups were impacted by 5 surgeons, and the final cup orientation was measured. With the new guide, the average error in anteversion was 0.4 degrees , compared with 10.4 degrees with the standard guide and 0.3 degrees and -4.7 degrees , respectively, for abduction angles. The average time required for orienting the cups was similar for both guides. The accuracy and reproducibility obtained with the new guide were better (P < .0001). These good results would require a clinical validation.

A safety run-in and randomized phase 2 study of cilengitide combined with chemoradiation for newly diagnosed glioblastoma (NABTT 0306).

BACKGROUND: Cilengitide is a selective integrin inhibitor that is well tolerated and has demonstrated biologic activity in patients with recurrent malignant glioma. The primary objectives of this randomized phase 2 trial were to determine the safety and efficacy of cilengitide when combined with radiation and temozolomide for patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma multiforme and to select a dose for comparative clinical testing. METHODS: In total, 112 patients were accrued. Eighteen patients received standard radiation and temozolomide with cilengitide in a safety run-in phase followed by a randomized phase 2 trial with 94 patients assigned to either a 500 mg dose group or 2000 mg dose group. The trial was designed to estimate overall survival benefit compared with a New Approaches to Brain Tumor Therapy (NABTT) Consortium internal historic control and data from the published European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) trial EORTC 26981. RESULTS: Cilengitide at all doses studied was well tolerated with radiation and temozolomide. The median survival was 19.7 months for all patients, 17.4 months for the patients in the 500 mg dose group, 20.8 months for patients in the 2000 mg dose group, 30 months for patients who had methylated O6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) status, and 17.4 months for patients who had unmethylated MGMT status. For patients aged ≤70 years, the median survival and survival at 24 months was superior to what was observed in the EORTC trial (20.7 months vs 14.6 months and 41% vs 27%, respectively; P = .008). CONCLUSIONS: Cilengitide was well tolerated when combined with standard chemoradiation and may improve survival for patients newly diagnosed with glioblastoma multiforme regardless of MGMT methylation status. The authors concluded that, from an efficacy and safety standpoint, future trials of this agent in this population should use the 2000 mg dose. Cancer 2012. © 2012 American Cancer Society.

Big data and other challenges in the quest for orthologs.

Given the rapid increase of species with a sequenced genome, the need to identify orthologous genes between them has emerged as a central bioinformatics task. Many different methods exist for orthology detection, which makes it difficult to decide which one to choose for a particular application. Here, we review the latest developments and issues in the orthology field, and summarize the most recent results reported at the third 'Quest for Orthologs' meeting. We focus on community efforts such as the adoption of reference proteomes, standard file formats and benchmarking. Progress in these areas is good, and they are already beneficial to both orthology consumers and providers. However, a major current issue is that the massive increase in complete proteomes poses computational challenges to many of the ortholog database providers, as most orthology inference algorithms scale at least quadratically with the number of proteomes. The Quest for Orthologs consortium is an open community with a number of working groups that join efforts to enhance various aspects of orthology analysis, such as defining standard formats and datasets, documenting community resources and benchmarking. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: All such materials are available at http://questfororthologs.org. CONTACT: erik.sonnhammer@scilifelab.se or c.dessimoz@ucl.ac.uk.

Review of NI Health and Social Care Sector (PDF 939KB)

This Report sets out the main findings from the Performance and Efficiency Delivery Unit (PEDU) Review of the Northern Ireland (NI) Health & Social Care sector

Basal insulin and cardiovascular and other outcomes in dysglycemia.

BACKGROUND: The provision of sufficient basal insulin to normalize fasting plasma glucose levels may reduce cardiovascular events, but such a possibility has not been formally tested. METHODS: We randomly assigned 12,537 people (mean age, 63.5 years) with cardiovascular risk factors plus impaired fasting glucose, impaired glucose tolerance, or type 2 diabetes to receive insulin glargine (with a target fasting blood glucose level of ≤95 mg per deciliter [5.3 mmol per liter]) or standard care and to receive n-3 fatty acids or placebo with the use of a 2-by-2 factorial design. The results of the comparison between insulin glargine and standard care are reported here. The coprimary outcomes were nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or death from cardiovascular causes and these events plus revascularization or hospitalization for heart failure. Microvascular outcomes, incident diabetes, hypoglycemia, weight, and cancers were also compared between groups. RESULTS: The median follow-up was 6.2 years (interquartile range, 5.8 to 6.7). Rates of incident cardiovascular outcomes were similar in the insulin-glargine and standard-care groups: 2.94 and 2.85 per 100 person-years, respectively, for the first coprimary outcome (hazard ratio, 1.02; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.94 to 1.11; P=0.63) and 5.52 and 5.28 per 100 person-years, respectively, for the second coprimary outcome (hazard ratio, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.97 to 1.11; P=0.27). New diabetes was diagnosed approximately 3 months after therapy was stopped among 30% versus 35% of 1456 participants without baseline diabetes (odds ratio, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.64 to 1.00; P=0.05). Rates of severe hypoglycemia were 1.00 versus 0.31 per 100 person-years. Median weight increased by 1.6 kg in the insulin-glargine group and fell by 0.5 kg in the standard-care group. There was no significant difference in cancers (hazard ratio, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.88 to 1.13; P=0.97). CONCLUSIONS: When used to target normal fasting plasma glucose levels for more than 6 years, insulin glargine had a neutral effect on cardiovascular outcomes and cancers. Although it reduced new-onset diabetes, insulin glargine also increased hypoglycemia and modestly increased weight. (Funded by Sanofi; ORIGIN ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00069784.).

The serine repeat antigen (SERA) gene family phylogeny in Plasmodium: the impact of GC content and reconciliation of gene and species trees.

Plasmodium falciparum is the parasite responsible for the most acute form of malaria in humans. Recently, the serine repeat antigen (SERA) in P. falciparum has attracted attention as a potential vaccine and drug target, and it has been shown to be a member of a large gene family. To clarify the relationships among the numerous P. falciparum SERAs and to identify orthologs to SERA5 and SERA6 in Plasmodium species affecting rodents, gene trees were inferred from nucleotide and amino acid sequence data for 33 putative SERA homologs in seven different species. (A distance method for nucleotide sequences that is specifically designed to accommodate differing GC content yielded results that were largely compatible with the amino acid tree. Standard-distance and maximum-likelihood methods for nucleotide sequences, on the other hand, yielded gene trees that differed in important respects.) To infer the pattern of duplication, speciation, and gene loss events in the SERA gene family history, the resulting gene trees were then "reconciled" with two competing Plasmodium species tree topologies that have been identified by previous phylogenetic studies. Parsimony of reconciliation was used as a criterion for selecting a gene tree/species tree pair and provided (1) support for one of the two species trees and for the core topology of the amino acid-derived gene tree, (2) a basis for critiquing fine detail in a poorly resolved region of the gene tree, (3) a set of predicted "missing genes" in some species, (4) clarification of the relationship among the P. falciparum SERA, and (5) some information about SERA5 and SERA6 orthologs in the rodent malaria parasites. Parsimony of reconciliation and a second criterion--implied mutational pattern at two key active sites in the SERA proteins-were also seen to be useful supplements to standard "bootstrap" analysis for inferred topologies.

Mechanisms of leukocyte lipid body formation and function in inflammation

An area of increasingly interest for the understanding of cell signaling are the spatio-temporal aspects of the different enzymes involved in lipid mediator generation (eicosanoid-forming enzymes, phospholipases and their regulatory kinases and phosphatases) and pools of lipid precursors. The compartmentalization of signaling components within discrete and dynamic sites in the cell is critical for specificity and efficiency of enzymatic reactions of phosphorilation, enzyme activation and function. We hypothesized that lipid bodies - inducible non-membrane bound cytoplasmic lipid domains - function as specialized intracellular sites of compartmentalization of signaling with major roles in lipid mediator formation within leukocytes engaged in inflammatory process. Over the past years substantial progresses have been made demonstrating that all enzymes involved in eicosanoid synthesis localize at lipid bodies and lipid bodies are distinct sites for eicosanoid generation. Here we will review our current knowledge on the mechanisms of formation and functions of lipid bodies pertinent to inflammation.

Puce a ADN: pourquoi et pour qui [Array CGH: why and to whom]

Structural genomic abnormalities play a key role in the pathogenesis of human disorders and represent one of the first causes of mental impairment, complex syndromes and tumors. In order to detect these chromosomal abnormalities, many methodologies have been developed with limits. The new ARRAY based Comparative Genomic Hybridization (ARRAY CGH) is a revolutionary approach which allows to characterize very small genetic abnormalities undetectable by the standard approaches and in the absence of any associated clinical information. The aim of this article is to describe why the application of a new array CGH methodology is necessary in the etiological search for genetic diseases, what the limits of the standard approaches are and to whom arrayCGH analyses can be applied in a pediatric environment. Examples of our practice will be presented.

EORTC study 26041-22041: phase I/II study on concomitant and adjuvant temozolomide (TMZ) and radiotherapy (RT) with PTK787/ZK222584 (PTK/ZK) in newly diagnosed glioblastoma.

BACKGROUND: Glioblastoma is a highly vascularised tumour with a high expression of both vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and VEGFR. PTK787/ZK222584 (PTK/ZK, vatalanib), a multiple VEGF receptor inhibitor, blocks the intracellular tyrosine kinase activity of all known VEGF receptors and is therefore suitable for long-term therapy of pathologic tumour neovascularisation. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The study was designed as an open-label, phase I/II study. A classic 3+3 design was selected. PTK/ZK was added to standard concomitant and adjuvant treatment, beginning in the morning of day 1 of radiotherapy (RT), and given continuously until disease progression or toxicity. PTK/ZK doses started from 500 mg with subsequent escalations to 1000 and 1250 mg/d. Adjuvant or maintenance PTK after the end of radiochemotherapy was given at a previously established dose of 750 mg twice daily continuously with TMZ at the standard adjuvant dose. RESULTS: Twenty patients were enrolled. Dose-limiting toxicities at a once daily dose of 1250 mg were grade 3 diarrhoea (n=1), grade 3 ALT increase (n=2), and myelosuppression with grade 4 thrombocytopenia and neutropenia (n=1). The recommended dose of PTK/ZK in combination with radiotherapy and temozolomide (TMZ) is 1000 mg once a day. This treatment is safe and well tolerated. CONCLUSION: In our phase I study once daily administration of up to 1000 mg of PTK/ZK in conjunction with concomitant temozolomide and radiotherapy was feasible and safe. Prolonged administration of this oral agent is manageable. The planned randomised phase II trial was discontinued right at its onset due to industry decision not to further develop this agent.

Exposure to Trihalomethanes through Different Water Uses and Birth Weight, Small for Gestational Age, and Preterm Delivery in Spain

BACKGROUND Evidence associating exposure to water disinfection by-products with reduced birth weight and altered duration of gestation remains inconclusive. OBJECTIVE We assessed exposure to trihalomethanes (THMs) during pregnancy through different water uses and evaluated the association with birth weight, small for gestational age (SGA), low birth weight (LBW), and preterm delivery. METHODS Mother-child cohorts set up in five Spanish areas during the years 2000-2008 contributed data on water ingestion, showering, bathing, and swimming in pools. We ascertained residential THM levels during pregnancy periods through ad hoc sampling campaigns (828 measurements) and regulatory data (264 measurements), which were modeled and combined with personal water use and uptake factors to estimate personal uptake. We defined outcomes following standard definitions and included 2,158 newborns in the analysis. RESULTS Median residential THM ranged from 5.9 μg/L (Valencia) to 114.7 μg/L (Sabadell), and speciation differed across areas. We estimated that 89% of residential chloroform and 96% of brominated THM uptakes were from showering/bathing. The estimated change of birth weight for a 10% increase in residential uptake was -0.45 g (95% confidence interval: -1.36, 0.45 g) for chloroform and 0.16 g (-1.38, 1.70 g) for brominated THMs. Overall, THMs were not associated with SGA, LBW, or preterm delivery. CONCLUSIONS Despite the high THM levels in some areas and the extensive exposure assessment, results suggest that residential THM exposure during pregnancy driven by inhalation and dermal contact routes is not associated with birth weight, SGA, LBW, or preterm delivery in Spain.

Pharmacological administration of the isoflavone daidzein enhances cell proliferation and reduces high fat diet-induced apoptosis and gliosis in the rat hippocampus.

Soy extracts have been claimed to be neuroprotective against brain insults, an effect related to the estrogenic properties of isoflavones. However, the effects of individual isoflavones on obesity-induced disruption of adult neurogenesis have not yet been analyzed. In the present study we explore the effects of pharmacological administration of daidzein, a main soy isoflavone, in cell proliferation, cell apoptosis and gliosis in the adult hippocampus of animals exposed to a very high-fat diet. Rats made obese after 12-week exposure to a standard or high-fat (HFD, 60%) diets were treated with daidzein (50 mg kg(-1)) for 13 days. Then, plasma levels of metabolites and metabolic hormones, cell proliferation in the subgranular zone of the dentate gyrus (SGZ), and immunohistochemical markers of hippocampal cell apoptosis (caspase-3), gliosis (GFAP and Iba-1), food reward factor FosB and estrogen receptor alpha (ERα) were analyzed. Treatment with daidzein reduced food/caloric intake and body weight gain in obese rats. This was associated with glucose tolerance, low levels of HDL-cholesterol, insulin, adiponectin and testosterone, and high levels of leptin and 17β-estradiol. Daidzein increased the number of phospho-histone H3 and 5-bromo-2-deoxyuridine (BrdU)-ir cells detected in the SGZ of standard diet and HFD-fed rats. Daidzein reversed the HFD-associated enhanced immunohistochemical expression of caspase-3, FosB, GFAP, Iba-1 and ERα in the hippocampus, being more prominent in the dentate gyrus. These results suggest that pharmacological treatment with isoflavones regulates metabolic alterations associated with enhancement of cell proliferation and reduction of apoptosis and gliosis in response to high-fat diet.

Identification of pharmaceutical tablets by Raman spectroscopy and chemometrics

Raman spectroscopy has become an attractive tool for the analysis of pharmaceutical solid dosage forms. In the present study it is used to ensure the identity of tablets. The two main applications of this method are release of final products in quality control and detection of counterfeits. Twenty-five product families of tablets have been included in the spectral library and a non-linear classification method, the Support Vector Machines (SVMs), has been employed. Two calibrations have been developed in cascade: the first one identifies the product family while the second one specifies the formulation. A product family comprises different formulations that have the same active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) but in a different amount. Once the tablets have been classified by the SVM model, API peaks detection and correlation are applied in order to have a specific method for the identification and allow in the future to discriminate counterfeits from genuine products. This calibration strategy enables the identification of 25 product families without error and in the absence of prior information about the sample. Raman spectroscopy coupled with chemometrics is therefore a fast and accurate tool for the identification of pharmaceutical tablets.