Treeline and climate change : analyzing and modeling patterns and shifts in the Swiss Alps

Summary: Global warming has led to an average earth surface temperature increase of about 0.7 °C in the 20th century, according to the 2007 IPCC report. In Switzerland, the temperature increase in the same period was even higher: 1.3 °C in the Northern Alps anal 1.7 °C in the Southern Alps. The impacts of this warming on ecosystems aspecially on climatically sensitive systems like the treeline ecotone -are already visible today. Alpine treeline species show increased growth rates, more establishment of young trees in forest gaps is observed in many locations and treelines are migrating upwards. With the forecasted warming, this globally visible phenomenon is expected to continue. This PhD thesis aimed to develop a set of methods and models to investigate current and future climatic treeline positions and treeline shifts in the Swiss Alps in a spatial context. The focus was therefore on: 1) the quantification of current treeline dynamics and its potential causes, 2) the evaluation and improvement of temperaturebased treeline indicators and 3) the spatial analysis and projection of past, current and future climatic treeline positions and their respective elevational shifts. The methods used involved a combination of field temperature measurements, statistical modeling and spatial modeling in a geographical information system. To determine treeline shifts and assign the respective drivers, neighborhood relationships between forest patches were analyzed using moving window algorithms. Time series regression modeling was used in the development of an air-to-soil temperature transfer model to calculate thermal treeline indicators. The indicators were then applied spatially to delineate the climatic treeline, based on interpolated temperature data. Observation of recent forest dynamics in the Swiss treeline ecotone showed that changes were mainly due to forest in-growth, but also partly to upward attitudinal shifts. The recent reduction in agricultural land-use was found to be the dominant driver of these changes. Climate-driven changes were identified only at the uppermost limits of the treeline ecotone. Seasonal mean temperature indicators were found to be the best for predicting climatic treelines. Applying dynamic seasonal delimitations and the air-to-soil temperature transfer model improved the indicators' applicability for spatial modeling. Reproducing the climatic treelines of the past 45 years revealed regionally different attitudinal shifts, the largest being located near the highest mountain mass. Modeling climatic treelines based on two IPCC climate warming scenarios predicted major shifts in treeline altitude. However, the currently-observed treeline is not expected to reach this limit easily, due to lagged reaction, possible climate feedback effects and other limiting factors. Résumé: Selon le rapport 2007 de l'IPCC, le réchauffement global a induit une augmentation de la température terrestre de 0.7 °C en moyenne au cours du 20e siècle. En Suisse, l'augmentation durant la même période a été plus importante: 1.3 °C dans les Alpes du nord et 1.7 °C dans les Alpes du sud. Les impacts de ce réchauffement sur les écosystèmes - en particuliers les systèmes sensibles comme l'écotone de la limite des arbres - sont déjà visibles aujourd'hui. Les espèces de la limite alpine des forêts ont des taux de croissance plus forts, on observe en de nombreux endroits un accroissement du nombre de jeunes arbres s'établissant dans les trouées et la limite des arbres migre vers le haut. Compte tenu du réchauffement prévu, on s'attend à ce que ce phénomène, visible globalement, persiste. Cette thèse de doctorat visait à développer un jeu de méthodes et de modèles pour étudier dans un contexte spatial la position présente et future de la limite climatique des arbres, ainsi que ses déplacements, au sein des Alpes suisses. L'étude s'est donc focalisée sur: 1) la quantification de la dynamique actuelle de la limite des arbres et ses causes potentielles, 2) l'évaluation et l'amélioration des indicateurs, basés sur la température, pour la limite des arbres et 3) l'analyse spatiale et la projection de la position climatique passée, présente et future de la limite des arbres et des déplacements altitudinaux de cette position. Les méthodes utilisées sont une combinaison de mesures de température sur le terrain, de modélisation statistique et de la modélisation spatiale à l'aide d'un système d'information géographique. Les relations de voisinage entre parcelles de forêt ont été analysées à l'aide d'algorithmes utilisant des fenêtres mobiles, afin de mesurer les déplacements de la limite des arbres et déterminer leurs causes. Un modèle de transfert de température air-sol, basé sur les modèles de régression sur séries temporelles, a été développé pour calculer des indicateurs thermiques de la limite des arbres. Les indicateurs ont ensuite été appliqués spatialement pour délimiter la limite climatique des arbres, sur la base de données de températures interpolées. L'observation de la dynamique forestière récente dans l'écotone de la limite des arbres en Suisse a montré que les changements étaient principalement dus à la fermeture des trouées, mais aussi en partie à des déplacements vers des altitudes plus élevées. Il a été montré que la récente déprise agricole était la cause principale de ces changements. Des changements dus au climat n'ont été identifiés qu'aux limites supérieures de l'écotone de la limite des arbres. Les indicateurs de température moyenne saisonnière se sont avérés le mieux convenir pour prédire la limite climatique des arbres. L'application de limites dynamiques saisonnières et du modèle de transfert de température air-sol a amélioré l'applicabilité des indicateurs pour la modélisation spatiale. La reproduction des limites climatiques des arbres durant ces 45 dernières années a mis en évidence des changements d'altitude différents selon les régions, les plus importants étant situés près du plus haut massif montagneux. La modélisation des limites climatiques des arbres d'après deux scénarios de réchauffement climatique de l'IPCC a prédit des changements majeurs de l'altitude de la limite des arbres. Toutefois, l'on ne s'attend pas à ce que la limite des arbres actuellement observée atteigne cette limite facilement, en raison du délai de réaction, d'effets rétroactifs du climat et d'autres facteurs limitants.

Temperature influence on embryonic development of Anopheles albitarsis and Anopheles aquasalis

Temperature influence on the embryonic development of Anopheles aquasalis and An. albitarsis was investigated. At 26ºC, 75% and 60% of respectively An. aquasalis and An. albitarsis eggs hatched, with one peak of eclosion, between the 2nd and 3rd day after oviposition. At 20 ± 2ºC, around 66-70% of An. aquasalis eggs hatched, with one eclosion peak, on the 5th day. On the other hand, An. albitarsis eclosion at 21 ± 2ºC decreased to 10-22%, with two eclosion peaks, on the 4th-5th day and on the 9th-12th day. These data indicate a stronger temperature influence over An.albitarsis than over An. aquasalis embryos.

Rare earth elements and stable isotope geochemistry (δ13C and δ18O) of phosphorite deposits in the Gafsa Basin, Tunisia

Rare earth elements (REE) and stable isotope compositions (delta C-13 and delta O-18) of shark teeth and phosphatic coprolites were analyzed from the Lower Maastrichtian layers of the El Haria Formation and two sequences of the Paleocene-Eocene (P/E) Chouabine Formation in the Gafsa Basin (south western of Tunisia) in order to trace the sedimentological, climatic and oceanographic conditions. The REE chemistry and their distribution in the two archives are the same for each of the studied layers indicating that the coprolites and shark teeth experienced the same early diagenetic environments. However major differences occur between the Maastrichtian and the P/E reflecting changes in the depositional conditions. The Early Maastrichtian burial environment tended to be more anoxic with REE derived from reduced FeO. While in the P/E the REE patterns mimic the modern oxic-suboxic seawater, the REE source from remineralisation of organic coating could have more significance. The oxygen isotope compositions of the structural phosphates (delta O-18(PO4)) indicate a stable and warm climate during both studied time intervals. A small offset (-0.4 parts per thousand) in the delta O-18 value between the coprolites and shark teeth show minor thermal gradient between bottom and surface water. The pronounced negative shift of 34%. in delta C-13 values recorded in the upper part of the Chouabine Formation was ascribed to the Paleocene-Eocene boundary. At the same time the lack of negative change in the delta O-18 is explained by the semi-closed situation of the Gafsa Basin, which situation also played an important role in the evolution of the organic matters in the sediment resulting in the exceptional low delta C-13 values. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Issuing temperature guidance to consumers on the cooking and storage of food

Temperature control is critical to ensuring food safety for all consumers, currently there is much advice and guidance to consumers on this matter.

On the origin of the ultradeep East Barents Sea basin

Very large subsidence, with up to 20 km thick sediment layers, is observed in the East Barents Sea basin. Subsidence started in early Paleozoic, accelerated in Permo-Triassic times, finished during the middle Cretaceous, and was followed by moderate uplift in Cenozoic times. The observed gravity signal suggests that the East Barents Sea is at present in isostatic balance and indicates that a mass excess is required in the lithosphere to produce the observed large subsidence. Several origins have been proposed for the mass excess. We use 1-D thermokinematic modeling and 2-D isostatic density models of continental lithosphere to evaluate these competing hypotheses. The crustal density in 2-D thermokinematic models resulting from pressure-, temperature-, and composition-dependent phase change models is computed along transects crossing the East Barents Sea. The results indicate the following. (1) Extension can only explain the observed subsidence provided that a 10 km thick serpentinized mantle lens beneath the basin center is present. We conclude that this is unlikely given that this highly serpentinized layer should be formed below a sedimentary basin with more than 10 km of sediments and crust at least 10 km thick. (2) Phase changes in a compositionally homogeneous crust do not provide enough mass excess to explain the present-day basin geometry. (3) Phase change induced densification of a preexisting lower crustal gabbroic body, interpreted as a mafic magmatic underplate, can explain the basin geometry and observed gravity anomalies. The following model is proposed for the formation of the East Barents Sea basin: (1) Devonian rifting and extension related magmatism resulted in moderate thinning of the crust and a mafic underplate below the central basin area explaining initial late Paleozoic subsidence. (2) East-west shortening during the Permian and Triassic resulted in densification of the previously emplaced mafic underplated body and enhanced subsidence dramatically, explaining the present-day deep basin geometry.

Body temperature regulation and outcome after cardiac arrest and therapeutic hypothermia.

OBJECTIVE: Therapeutic temperature modulation is recommended after cardiac arrest (CA). However, body temperature (BT) regulation has not been extensively studied in this setting. We investigated BT variation in CA patients treated with therapeutic hypothermia (TH) and analyzed its impact on outcome. METHODS: A prospective cohort of comatose CA patients treated with TH (32-34°C, 24h) at the medical/surgical intensive care unit of the Lausanne University Hospital was studied. Spontaneous BT was recorded on hospital admission. The following variables were measured during and after TH: time to target temperature (TTT=time from hospital admission to induced BT target <34°C), cooling rate (spontaneous BT-induced BT target/TTT) and time of passive rewarming to normothermia. Associations of spontaneous and induced BT with in-hospital mortality were examined. RESULTS: A total of 177 patients (median age 61 years; median time to ROSC 25 min) were studied. Non-survivors (N=90, 51%) had lower spontaneous admission BT than survivors (median 34.5 [interquartile range 33.7-35.9]°C vs. 35.1 [34.4-35.8]°C, p=0.04). Accordingly, time to target temperature was shorter among non-survivors (200 [25-363]min vs. 270 [158-375]min, p=0.03); however, when adjusting for admission BT, cooling rates were comparable between the two outcome groups (0.4 [0.2-0.5]°C/h vs. 0.3 [0.2-0.4]°C/h, p=0.65). Longer duration of passive rewarming (600 [464-744]min vs. 479 [360-600]min, p<0.001) was associated with mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Lower spontaneous admission BT and longer time of passive rewarming were associated with in-hospital mortality after CA and TH. Impaired thermoregulation may be an important physiologic determinant of post-resuscitation disease and CA prognosis. When assessing the benefit of early cooling on outcome, future trials should adjust for patient admission temperature and use the cooling rate rather than the time to target temperature.

The effects of temperature change on the infection rate of Biomphalaria glabrata with Schistosoma mansoni

The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of temperature on the development of Schistosoma mansoni infections in Biomphalaria glabrata. The snails were infected at 15, 20, and 30ºC, and the cercarial release was analyzed after 30 and 60 days post-infection. Our results showed that a decrease in the temperature has a substantial influence on the development of S. mansoni infection in B. glabrata, with significant differences (p < 0.05) between 15 and 30ºC. These data could provide a better understanding of the epidemiological aspects of schistosomiasis.

Deep accidental hypothermia with core temperature below 24°c presenting with vital signs.

Abstract Pasquier, Mathieu, Noemi Zurron, Barbara Weith, Pierre Turini, Fabrice Dami, Pierre-Nicolas Carron, and Peter Paal. Deep accidental hypothermia with core temperature below 24°C presenting with vital signs. High Alt Med Biol. 15:58-63, 2014.-Background: According to the Swiss hypothermia clinical staging, patients with stage III are unconscious with preserved vital signs, with core temperature usually between 24° and 28°C. With stage IV, vital signs are absent with core temperature <24°C. Aims: To describe a patient presenting with HT stage III with vital signs but a core temperature of <24°C, and to search for similar patients in the medical literature. Materials and methods: MEDLINE was used to search for cases of deep accidental hypothermia (<24°C) and preserved vital signs. Results: We found 22 cases in addition to our case (n=23). Median age was 44 years (IQR 36; range 4-83) and median core temperature 22°C (IQR 1.7; 17-23.8). Vital signs were often minimal. Seven patients developed ventricular fibrillation (VF). Twenty patients survived with excellent neurological outcome. Conclusions: Vital signs can be present in hypothermic patients with core temperature <24°C. In deeply hypothermic patients, a careful check and prolonged check of vital functions should be made, as vital signs may be minimal. The clinical Swiss staging remains valuable in the prehospital evaluation of hypothermic patients; its correlation with core temperature should be better defined.

Implementació en Geomedia PRO d'un exportador a KML per visualitzar dades 4D en Google Earth

Treball consistent en la construcció d'un exportador a format KML de mapes temàtics pel producte Geomedia PRO 6.1 possibilitant l'observació del component del temps sobre un globus virtual com és Google Earth. Mitjançant les dades de la xarxa XEMEC, es mostrarà un mapa temàtic d'exemple amb les dades d'intensitat i direcció del vent recollides en un període d'un any.

Influence of temperature and humidity on the biology of Triatoma mexicana (Hemiptera: Reduviidae: Triatominae) under laboratory conditions

Several biological parameters related to the Triatoma mexicana life-cycle were evaluated in this study. Three cohorts were maintained under different combinations of temperature and relative humidity (RH): 25ºC/50% RH; 25ºC/75% RH; and 30ºC/75% RH. Observed hatching rates varied from 49-57.5% whereas the average time of hatching varied from 19.5-22.7 days. In the three cohorts studied, the mean time-lapse between presentation of the blood meal and the beginning of feeding was less than 5 min in all instars; the mean feeding time was longer than 10 min in all the instars; the post-feed defecation delay was over 10 min in all the instars. Less than 50% of nymphs in each cohort completed the cycle and the average time from 1st instar nymph to adult was more than 255 days for the three cohorts. The number of blood meals before molt at each nymphal instar varied from 1-9. Our results appear to indicate a lack of influence of temperature and RH on the biological parameters of T. mexicana that were studied, which could reflect the adaptation capacity of this species. We also conclude that T. mexicana can not be considered an effective transmitter of Trypanosoma cruzi to human populations in areas where this species is currently present.

Thermomechanical analysis of strain localization in a ductile detachment zone

At the latitude of the Thor-Odin dome (British Columbia) the Columbia River Detachment defines the eastern margin of the Shuswap metamorphic core complex and localizes in a 1 km thick muscovite-bearing quartzite mylonite. We present a combined Ar-40/Ar-39, (micro) structural, and oxygen isotope study of the deformation history in the detachment and evaluate the spatial and temporal relationships between microstructure formation and localization of strain. High-precision Ar-40/Ar-39 geochronology from different levels in the mylonite delineates a pattern of increasingly younger (49.0 to 47.9 Ma) deformation ages in deeper levels of the mylonitic footwall. The correlation of Ar-40/Ar-39 ages with decreasing deformation temperatures (similar to 550 degrees-400 degrees C) in the top 200 m of the mylonite indicates that deformation migrated downward from the contact with the hanging wall. Strain localization was diachronous in progressively deeper levels of the footwall and was likely controlled by fluid-assisted strain hardening due to advective heat removal and contemporaneous reaction weakening due to dissolution-reprecipitation of white mica. The observed constant high-stress microstructures across the entire detachment indicate that flow stress was buffered by the interplay of strain rate and temperature, where high strain rates at elevated temperature produced the same microstructure as lower strain rates under decreasing temperature conditions. The combined data suggest that the complex interplay among temporally nonuniform rates of footwall exhumation, heat advection, and embrittlement by meteoric fluids strongly determines the thermomechanical behavior of extensional detachments.

Relation between temperature and mortality in thirteen Spanish cities

In this study we examined the shape of the association between temperature and mortality in 13 Spanish cities representing a wide range of climatic and socio demographic conditions. The temperature value linked with minimum mortality (MMT) and the slopes before and after the turning point (MMT) were calculated. Most cities showed a V-shaped temperature-mortality relationship. MMTs were generally higher in cities with warmer climates. Cold and heat effects also depended on climate: effects were greater in hotter cities but lesser in cities with higher variability. The effect of heat was greater than the effect of cold. The effect of cold and MMT was, in general, greater for cardio-respiratory mortality than for total mortality, while the effect of heat was, in general, greater among the elderly

Effect of Temperature on the Development and Survival of the Argentine Ant, Linepithema humile

The influence of temperature on the developmental times and survival of insects can largely determine their distribution. For invasive species, like the Argentine ant, Linepithema humile Mayr (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), these data are essential for predicting their potential range based on mechanistic models. In the case of this species, such data are too scarce and incomplete to make accurate predictions based on its physiological needs. This research provides comprehensive new data about brood survival and developmental times at a wide range of temperatures under laboratory conditions. Temperature affected both the complete brood development from egg to adult worker and each of the immature stages separately. The higher the temperature, the shorter the development times. Brood survival from egg to adult was low, with the maximum survival rate being only 16% at 26º C. Temperature also affected survival of each of the immature stages differently: eggs were negatively affected by high temperatures, while larvae were negatively affected by low temperatures, and the survival of pupae was apparentlyindependent of environmental temperature. At 32º C no eggs survived, while at 18º C less than 2% of the eggs hatched into larva. The data from the present study are essential for developing prediction models about the distribution range of this tramp species based on its physiological needs in relation to temperature

Could a satellite-based navigation system (GPS) be used to assess the physical activity of individuals on earth?

OBJECTIVES: To test whether the Global Positioning System (GPS) could be potentially useful to assess the velocity of walking and running in humans. SUBJECT: A young man was equipped with a GPS receptor while walking running and cycling at various velocity on an athletic track. The speed of displacement assessed by GPS, was compared to that directly measured by chronometry (76 tests). RESULTS: In walking and running conditions (from 2-20 km/h) as well as cycling conditions (from 20-40 km/h), there was a significant relationship between the speed assessed by GPS and that actually measured (r = 0.99, P < 0.0001) with little bias in the prediction of velocity. The overall error of prediction (s.d. of difference) averaged +/-0.8 km/h. CONCLUSION: The GPS technique appears very promising for speed assessment although the relative accuracy at walking speed is still insufficient for research purposes. It may be improved by using differential GPS measurement.

Natural evidence for rapid abiogenic hydrothermal generation of CH4

Although recent hydrothermal experiments imply that abiogenic methane (CH4) generation from hydrothermal reduction of CO2 can occur, evidence from natural systems was still lacking. Based on the chemical and isotopic equilibrium signatures of low-temperature fumarolic gas discharges, we are able to provide hard evidence for its natural occurrence, namely in three subduction-related bi-phase hydrothermal systems of the Mediterranean, whose temperatures range from 260 to 470 degrees C. The attainment of equilibrium and the time spans of recent volcanic dormancy allowed us to calculate minimum rates for chemical and isotopic equilibration. These are significantly higher than those previously reported and might be due to the presence of a saturated water vapor phase in the investigated systems. The fact that nature provides conditions enabling relatively fast production of hydrocarbons from CO2 strongly supports the concerns that were recently raised from laboratory experiments. These address the use of the carbon isotope composition of reduced carbon in Archean sediments as a tracer of early life and the occurrence of CH4 on extraterrestrial planets as a bioindicator. In view of the potential role of abiogenic CH4 as a precursor of life, we also present an estimate of abiogenic hydrothermal CH4 fluxes throughout the Archean. It is not expected that these fluxes exceeded 80 Mt/yr during the past 4.0 Ga. This, however, would have been enough to facilitate HCN production on the prebiotic Earth. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.