Time to Extinction in Branching Processes and its Application in Epidemiology

2010 Mathematics Subject Classification: Primary 60J80; Secondary 92D30.

Experimental analysis of soil and dust stabilizers for controlling displacement of contaminated soils by wind tunnel experiments

During the remediation of burial grounds at the US Department of Energy's (DOE's) Hanford Site in Washington State, the dispersion of contaminated soil particles and dust is an issue that is faced by site workers on a daily basis. This contamination problem is even more of a concern when one takes into account the semi-arid characteristics of the region where the site is located. To mitigate this problem, workers at the site use a variety of engineered methods to minimize the dispersion of contaminated soil and dust (i.e. use of water and/or suppression agents that stabilizes the soil prior to soil excavation, segregation, and removal activities). A primary contributor to the dispersion of contaminated soil and dust is wind soil erosion. The erosion process occurs when the wind speed exceeds a certain threshold value which depends on a number of factors including wind force loading, particle size, surface soil moisture, and the geometry of the soil. Thus under these circumstances, the mobility of contaminated soil and generation and dispersion of particulate matter are significantly influenced by these parameters. This dependence of soil and dust movement on threshold shear velocity, fixative dilution and/or application rates, soil moisture content, and soil geometry were studied for Hanford's sandy soil through a series of wind tunnel experiments, laboratory experiments and theoretical analysis. In addition, the behavior of plutonium (Pu) powder contamination in the soil was studied by introducing a Pu simulant (cerium oxide). The results showed that soil dispersion and PM10 concentrations decreased with increasing soil moisture. Also, it was shown that the mobility of the soil was affected by increasing wind velocity. It was demonstrated that the use of fixative products greatly decreased the amount of soil and PM10 concentrations when exposed to varying wind conditions. In addition, it was shown that geometry of the soil sample affected the velocity profile and calculation of roughness surface coefficient when comparing round and flat soil samples. Finally, threshold shear velocities were calculated for soil with flat surface and their dependency on surface soil moisture was demonstrated. A theoretical framework was developed to explain these dependencies.

Radiogenic Hf isotopic composition of continental eolian dust in Pacific Ocean sediments

The inorganic silicate fraction extracted from bulk pelagic sediments from the North Pacific Ocean is eolian dust. It monitors the composition of continental crust exposed to erosion in Asia. 176Lu/177Hf ratios of modern dust are subchondritic between 0.011 and 0.016 but slightly elevated with respect to immature sediments. Modern dust samples display a large range in Hf isotopic composition (IC), -4.70 < epsilon-Hf < +16.45, which encompasses that observed for the time series of DSDP cores 885/886 and piston core LL44-GPC3 extending back to the late Cretaceous. Hafnium and neodymium isotopic results are consistent with a dominantly binary mixture of dust contributed from island arc volcanic material and dust from central Asia. The Hf-Nd isotopic correlation for all modern dust samples, epsilon-Hf= =0.78 epsilon-Nd = +5.66 (n =22, R**2 =0.79), is flatter than those reported so far for terrestrial reservoirs. Moreover, the variability in epsilon-Hf of Asian dust exceeds that predicted on the basis of corresponding epsilon-Nd values (34.76 epsilon-Hf < +2.5; -10.96< epsilon-Nd <-10.1). This is attributed to: (1) the fixing of an important unradiogenic fraction of Hf in zircons, balanced by radiogenic Hf that is mobile in the erosional cycle, (2) the elevated Lu/Hf ratio in chemical sediments which, given time, results in a Hf signature that is radiogenic compared with Hf expected from its corresponding Nd isotopic components, and (3) the possibility that diagenetic resetting of marine sediments may incorporate a significant radiogenic Hf component into diagenetically grown minerals such as illite. Together, these processes may explain the variability and more radiogenic character of Hf isotopes when compared to the Nd isotopic signatures of Asian dust. The Hf-Nd isotope time series of eolian dust are consistent with the results of modern dust except two samples that have extremely radiogenic Hf for their Nd (epsilon-Hf =+8.6 and +10.3, epsilon-Nd =39.5 and 39.8). These data may point to a source contribution of dust unresolved by Nd and Pb isotopes. The Hf IC of eolian dust input to the oceans may be more variable and more radiogenic than previously anticipated. The Hf signature of Pacific seawater, however, has varied little over the past 20 Myr, especially across the drastic increase of eolian dust flux from Asia around 3.5 Ma. Therefore, continental contributions to seawater Hf appear to be riverine rather than eolian. Current predictions regarding the relative proportions of source components to seawater Hf must account for the presence of a variable and radiogenic continental component. Data on the IC and flux of river-dissolved Hf to the oceans are urgently required to better estimate contributions to seawater Hf. This then would permit the use of Hf isotopes as a monitor of past changes in erosion.

Discovery of "Warm Dust" galaxies in clusters at z ~ 0.3: evidence for stripping of cool dust in the dense environment?

Using far-infrared imaging from the "Herschel Lensing Survey," we derive dust properties of spectroscopically confirmed cluster member galaxies within two massive systems at z ~ 0.3: the merging Bullet Cluster and the more relaxed MS2137.3-2353. Most star-forming cluster sources (~90%) have characteristic dust temperatures similar to local field galaxies of comparable infrared (IR) luminosity (T_dust ~ 30 K). Several sub-luminous infrared galaxy (LIRG; L_IR < 10^11 L_☉) Bullet Cluster members are much warmer (T_dust > 37 K) with far-infrared spectral energy distribution (SED) shapes resembling LIRG-type local templates. X-ray and mid-infrared data suggest that obscured active galactic nuclei do not contribute significantly to the infrared flux of these "warm dust" galaxies. Sources of comparable IR luminosity and dust temperature are not observed in the relaxed cluster MS2137, although the significance is too low to speculate on an origin involving recent cluster merging. "Warm dust" galaxies are, however, statistically rarer in field samples (>3σ), indicating that the responsible mechanism may relate to the dense environment. The spatial distribution of these sources is similar to the whole far-infrared bright population, i.e., preferentially located in the cluster periphery, although the galaxy hosts tend toward lower stellar masses (M_* < 10^10 M_☉). We propose dust stripping and heating processes which could be responsible for the unusually warm characteristic dust temperatures. A normal star-forming galaxy would need 30%-50% of its dust removed (preferentially stripped from the outer reaches, where dust is typically cooler) to recover an SED similar to a "warm dust" galaxy. These progenitors would not require a higher IR luminosity or dust mass than the currently observed normal star-forming population.

The relation between cool cluster cores and Herschel-detected star formation in brightest cluster galaxies

We present far-infrared (FIR) analysis of 68 brightest cluster galaxies (BCGs) at 0.08 < z < 1.0. Deriving total infrared luminosities directly from Spitzer and Herschel photometry spanning the peak of the dust component (24-500 μm), we calculate the obscured star formation rate (SFR). 22^+6.2 _–5.3% of the BCGs are detected in the far-infrared, with SFR = 1-150 M ☉ yr^–1. The infrared luminosity is highly correlated with cluster X-ray gas cooling times for cool-core clusters (gas cooling time <1 Gyr), strongly suggesting that the star formation in these BCGs is influenced by the cluster-scale cooling process. The occurrence of the molecular gas tracing Hα emission is also correlated with obscured star formation. For all but the most luminous BCGs (L_TIR > 2 × 10^11 L_☉), only a small (≤0.4 mag) reddening correction is required for SFR(Hα) to agree with SFR_FIR. The relatively low Hα extinction (dust obscuration), compared to values reported for the general star-forming population, lends further weight to an alternate (external) origin for the cold gas. Finally, we use a stacking analysis of non-cool-core clusters to show that the majority of the fuel for star formation in the FIR-bright BCGs is unlikely to originate from normal stellar mass loss.

Local luminous infrared galaxies: Spatially resolved mid-infrared observations with Spitzer/IRS

Luminous Infrared (IR) Galaxies (LIRGs, L_IR=10^11-10 L_⨀) are an important cosmological class of galaxies as they are the main contributors to the co-moving star formation rate density of the universe at z=1. In this paper we present a guaranteed time observation (GTO) Spitzer InfraRed Spectrograph (IRS) program aimed to obtain spectral mapping of a sample of 14 local d<76Mpc LIRGs. The data cubes map, at least, the central 20arcsec X 20arcsec to 30 arcsec X 30 arcsec regions of the galaxies, and use all four IRS modules covering the full 5-38 μ m spectral range. The final goal of this project is to characterize fully the mid-IR properties of local LIRGs as a first step to understanding their more distant counterparts. In this paper we present the first results of this GTO program. The IRS spectral mapping data allow us to build spectral maps of the bright mid-IR emission lines (e.g., [Ne II] 12.81 μ m, [Ne III]15.56 μ m, [S III] 18.71 μ m, H_2 at 17 μ m), continuum, the 6.2 and 11.3 μ m polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) features, and the 9.7 μ m silicate feature, as well as to extract 1D spectra for regions of interest in each galaxy. The IRS data are used to obtain spatially resolved measurements of the extinction using the 9.7 μ m silicate feature, and to trace star forming regions using the neon lines and the PAH features. We also investigate a number of active galactic nuclei (AGN) indicators, including the presence of high excitation emission lines and a strong dust continuum emission at around 6 9.7 μ m . We finally use the integrated Spitzer/IRS spectra as templates of local LIRGs. We discuss several possible uses for these templates, including the calibration of the star formation rate of IR-bright galaxies at high redshift. We also predict the intensities of the brightest mid-IR emission lines for LIRGs as a function of redshift, and compare them with the expected sensitivities of future space IR missions.

The star formation and extinction coevolution of UV-selected galaxies over 0.05 < z < 1.2

We use a new stacking technique to obtain mean mid-IR and far-IR to far-UV flux ratios over the rest-frame near-UV, near-IR color-magnitude diagram. We employ COMBO-17 redshifts and COMBO-17 optical, GALEX far- and near-UV, and Spitzer IRAC and MIPS mid-IR photometry. This technique permits us to probe the infrared excess (IRX), the ratio of far-IR to far-UV luminosity, and the specific star formation rate (SSFR) and their coevolution over 2 orders of magnitude of stellar mass and over redshift 0.1 < z < 1.2. We find that the SSFR and the characteristic mass (Script M_0) above which the SSFR drops increase with redshift (downsizing). At any given epoch, the IRX is an increasing function of mass up to Script M_0. Above this mass the IRX falls, suggesting gas exhaustion. In a given mass bin below Script M_0, the IRX increases with time in a fashion consistent with enrichment. We interpret these trends using a simple model with a Schmidt-Kennicutt law and extinction that tracks gas density and enrichment. We find that the average IRX and SSFR follow a galaxy age parameter ξ, which is determined mainly by the galaxy mass and time since formation. We conclude that blue-sequence galaxies have properties which show simple, systematic trends with mass and time such as the steady buildup of heavy elements in the interstellar media of evolving galaxies and the exhaustion of gas in galaxies that are evolving off the blue sequence. The IRX represents a tool for selecting galaxies at various stages of evolution.

On the metallicity dependence of the 24 μm luminosity as a star formation tracer

We investigate the use of the rest-frame 24 μm luminosity as an indicator of the star formation rate (SFR) in galaxies with different metallicities by comparing it to the (extinction-corrected) Hα luminosity. We carry out this analysis in two steps: First, we compare the emission from H (II) regions in different galaxies with metallicities between 12 + and 8.9. We find that the 24 μm and the extinction-corrected Hα luminosities from individual H (II) log (O/H) = 8.1 regions follow the same correlation for all galaxies, independent of their metallicity. Second, the role of metallicity is explored further for the integrated luminosity in a sample of galaxies with metallicities in the range of 12 +. For this sample we compare the 24 μm and Hα luminosities integrated over the entire galaxies log (O/ H) = 7.2-9.1 and find a lack of the 24 μm emission for a given Hα luminosity for low-metallicity objects, likely reflecting a low dust content. These results suggest that the 24 μm luminosity is a good metallicity-independent tracer for the SFR in individual H (II) regions. On the other hand, metallicity has to be taken into account when using the 24 μm luminosity as a tracer for the SFR of entire galaxies.

Using Bird Distributions to Assess Extinction Risk and Identify Conservation Priorities in Biodiversity Hotspots

Habitat loss, fragmentation, and degradation threaten the World’s ecosystems and species. These, and other threats, will likely be exacerbated by climate change. Due to a limited budget for conservation, we are forced to prioritize a few areas over others. These places are selected based on their uniqueness and vulnerability. One of the most famous examples is the biodiversity hotspots: areas where large quantities of endemic species meet alarming rates of habitat loss. Most of these places are in the tropics, where species have smaller ranges, diversity is higher, and ecosystems are most threatened.

Species distributions are useful to understand ecological theory and evaluate extinction risk. Small-ranged species, or those endemic to one place, are more vulnerable to extinction than widely distributed species. However, current range maps often overestimate the distribution of species, including areas that are not within the suitable elevation or habitat for a species. Consequently, assessment of extinction risk using these maps could underestimate vulnerability.

In order to be effective in our quest to conserve the World’s most important places we must: 1) Translate global and national priorities into practical local actions, 2) Find synergies between biodiversity conservation and human welfare, 3) Evaluate the different dimensions of threats, in order to design effective conservation measures and prepare for future threats, and 4) Improve the methods used to evaluate species’ extinction risk and prioritize areas for conservation. The purpose of this dissertation is to address these points in Colombia and other global biodiversity hotspots.

In Chapter 2, I identified the global, strategic conservation priorities and then downscaled to practical local actions within the selected priorities in Colombia. I used existing range maps of 171 bird species to identify priority conservation areas that would protect the greatest number of species at risk in Colombia (endemic and small-ranged species). The Western Andes had the highest concentrations of such species—100 in total—but the lowest densities of national parks. I then adjusted the priorities for this region by refining these species ranges by selecting only areas of suitable elevation and remaining habitat. The estimated ranges of these species shrank by 18–100% after accounting for habitat and suitable elevation. Setting conservation priorities on the basis of currently available range maps excluded priority areas in the Western Andes and, by extension, likely elsewhere and for other taxa. By incorporating detailed maps of remaining natural habitats, I made practical recommendations for conservation actions. One recommendation was to restore forest connections to a patch of cloud forest about to become isolated from the main Andes.

For Chapter 3, I identified areas where bird conservation met ecosystem service protection in the Central Andes of Colombia. Inspired by the November 11th (2011) landslide event near Manizales, and the current poor results of Colombia’s Article 111 of Law 99 of 1993 as a conservation measure in this country, I set out to prioritize conservation and restoration areas where landslide prevention would complement bird conservation in the Central Andes. This area is one of the most biodiverse places on Earth, but also one of the most threatened. Using the case of the Rio Blanco Reserve, near Manizales, I identified areas for conservation where endemic and small-range bird diversity was high, and where landslide risk was also high. I further prioritized restoration areas by overlapping these conservation priorities with a forest cover map. Restoring forests in bare areas of high landslide risk and important bird diversity yields benefits for both biodiversity and people. I developed a simple landslide susceptibility model using slope, forest cover, aspect, and stream proximity. Using publicly available bird range maps, refined by elevation, I mapped concentrations of endemic and small-range bird species. I identified 1.54 km2 of potential restoration areas in the Rio Blanco Reserve, and 886 km2 in the Central Andes region. By prioritizing these areas, I facilitate the application of Article 111 which requires local and regional governments to invest in land purchases for the conservation of watersheds.

Chapter 4 dealt with elevational ranges of montane birds and the impact of lowland deforestation on their ranges in the Western Andes of Colombia, an important biodiversity hotspot. Using point counts and mist-nets, I surveyed six altitudinal transects spanning 2200 to 2800m. Three transects were forested from 2200 to 2800m, and three were partially deforested with forest cover only above 2400m. I compared abundance-weighted mean elevation, minimum elevation, and elevational range width. In addition to analyzing the effect of deforestation on 134 species, I tested its impact within trophic guilds and habitat preference groups. Abundance-weighted mean and minimum elevations were not significantly different between forested and partially deforested transects. Range width was marginally different: as expected, ranges were larger in forested transects. Species in different trophic guilds and habitat preference categories showed different trends. These results suggest that deforestation may affect species’ elevational ranges, even within the forest that remains. Climate change will likely exacerbate harmful impacts of deforestation on species’ elevational distributions. Future conservation strategies need to account for this by protecting connected forest tracts across a wide range of elevations.

In Chapter 5, I refine the ranges of 726 species from six biodiversity hotspots by suitable elevation and habitat. This set of 172 bird species for the Atlantic Forest, 138 for Central America, 100 for the Western Andes of Colombia, 57 for Madagascar, 102 for Sumatra, and 157 for Southeast Asia met the criteria for range size, endemism, threat, and forest use. Of these 586 species, the Red List deems 108 to be threatened: 15 critically endangered, 29 endangered, and 64 vulnerable. When ranges are refined by elevational limits and remaining forest cover, 10 of those critically endangered species have ranges < 100km2, but then so do 2 endangered species, seven vulnerable, and eight non-threatened ones. Similarly, 4 critically endangered species, 20 endangered, and 12 vulnerable species have refined ranges < 5000km2, but so do 66 non-threatened species. A striking 89% of these species I have classified in higher threat categories have <50% of their refined ranges inside protected areas. I find that for 43% of the species I assessed, refined range sizes fall within thresholds that typically have higher threat categories than their current assignments. I recommend these species for closer inspection by those who assess risk. These assessments are not only important on a species-by-species basis, but by combining distributions of threatened species, I create maps of conservation priorities. They differ significantly from those created from unrefined ranges.

(Table 1) Geographical location and nutrient composition of saline lake sediments (SLS) and nearby adjacent biological soil crusts (BSC) identified as potential dust sources

While microbial communities of aerosols have been examined, little is known about their sources. Nutrient composition and microbial communities of potential dust sources, saline lake sediments (SLS) and adjacent biological soil crusts (BSC), from Southern Australia were determined and compared with a previously analyzed dust sample. Multivariate analyses of fingerprinting profiles indicated that the bacterial communities of SLS and BSC were different, and these differences were mainly explained by salinity. Nutrient concentrations varied among the sites but could not explain the differences in microbial diversity patterns. Comparison of microbial communities with dust samples showed that deflation selects against filamentous cyanobacteria, such as the Nostocales group. This could be attributed to the firm attachment of cyanobacterial filaments to soil particles and/or because deflation occurs mainly in disturbed BSC, where cyanobacterial diversity is often low. Other bacterial groups, such as Actinobacteria and the spore-forming Firmicutes, were found in both dust and its sources. While Firmicutes-related sequences were mostly detected in the SLS bacterial communities (10% of total sequences), the actinobacterial sequences were retrieved from both (11-13%). In conclusion, the potential dust sources examined here show highly diverse bacterial communities and contain nutrients that can be transported with aerosols. The obtained fingerprinting and sequencing data may enable back tracking of dust plumes and their microorganisms.

Map of North African dust emission

Changes in the emission, transport and deposition of aeolian dust have profound effects on regional climate, so that characterizing the lifecycle of dust in observations and improving the representation of dust in global climate models is necessary. A fundamental aspect of characterizing the dust cycle is quantifying surface dust fluxes, yet no spatially explicit estimates of this flux exist for the World's major source regions. Here we present a novel technique for creating a map of the annual mean emitted dust flux for North Africa based on retrievals of dust storm frequency from the Meteosat Second Generation Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI) and the relationship between dust storm frequency and emitted mass flux derived from the output of five models that simulate dust. Our results suggest that 64 (±16)% of all dust emitted from North Africa is from the Bodélé depression, and that 13 (±3)% of the North African dust flux is from a depression lying in the lee of the Aïr and Hoggar Mountains, making this area the second most important region of emission within North Africa.

Reconstructions of eolian dust accumulation in northwest African margin sediments

Reconstructions of eolian dust accumulation in northwest African margin sediments provide important continuous records of past changes in atmospheric circulation and aridity in the region. Existing records indicate dramatic changes in North African dust emissions over the last 20 ka, but the limited spatial extent of these records and the lack of high-resolution flux data do not allow us to determine whether changes in dust deposition occurred with similar timing, magnitude and abruptness throughout northwest Africa. Here we present new records from a meridional transect of cores stretching from 31°N to 19°N along the northwest African margin. By combining grain size endmember modeling with 230Th-normalized fluxes for the first time, we are able to document spatial and temporal changes in dust deposition under the North African dust plume throughout the last 20 ka. Our results provide quantitative estimates of the magnitude of dust flux changes associated with Heinrich Stadial 1, the Younger Dryas, and the African Humid Period (AHP; ~11.7-5 ka), offering robust targets for model-based estimates of the climatic and biogeochemical impacts of past changes in North African dust emissions. Our data suggest that dust fluxes between 8 and 6 ka were a factor of ~5 lower than average fluxes during the last 2 ka. Using a simple model to estimate the effects of bioturbation on dust input signals, we find that our data are consistent with abrupt, synchronous changes in dust fluxes in all cores at the beginning and end of the AHP. The mean ages of these transitions are 11.8±0.2 ka (1Sigma) and 4.9±0.2 ka, respectively.

Grain size distribution and bulk chemistry of eolian dust

Atmospheric dust samples collected along a transect off the West African coast have been investigated for their physical (grain-size distribution), mineralogical, and chemical (major elements) composition. On the basis of these data the samples were grouped into sets of samples that most likely originated from the same source area. In addition, shipboard-collected atmospheric meteorological data, modeled 4-day back trajectories for each sampling day and location, and Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer aerosol index data for the time period of dust collection (February-March 1998) were combined and used to reconstruct the sources of the groups of dust samples. On the basis of these data we were able to determine the provenance of the various dust samples. It appears that the bulk of the wind-blown sediments that are deposited in the proximal equatorial Atlantic Ocean are transported in the lower level (>~900 hPa) NE trade wind layer, which is a very dominant feature north of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). However, south of the surface expression of the ITCZ, down to 5°S, where surface winds are southwesterly, we still collected sediments that originated from the north and east, carried there by the NE trade wind layer, as well as by easterly winds from higher altitudes. The fact that the size of the wind-blown dust depends not only on the wind strength of the transporting agent but also on the distance to the source hampers a direct comparison of the dust's size distributions and measured wind strengths. However, a comparison between eolian dust and terrigenous sediments collected in three submarine sediment traps off the west coast of NW Africa shows that knowledge of the composition of eolian dust is a prerequisite for the interpretation of paleorecords obtained from sediment cores in the equatorial Atlantic.