The explicit hazard model – part 1: theoretical development

Modern Engineering Asset Management (EAM) requires the accurate assessment of current and the prediction of future asset health condition. Appropriate mathematical models that are capable of estimating times to failures and the probability of failures in the future are essential in EAM. In most real-life situations, the lifetime of an engineering asset is influenced and/or indicated by different factors that are termed as covariates. Hazard prediction with covariates is an elemental notion in the reliability theory to estimate the tendency of an engineering asset failing instantaneously beyond the current time assumed that it has already survived up to the current time. A number of statistical covariate-based hazard models have been developed. However, none of them has explicitly incorporated both external and internal covariates into one model. This paper introduces a novel covariate-based hazard model to address this concern. This model is named as Explicit Hazard Model (EHM). Both the semi-parametric and non-parametric forms of this model are presented in the paper. The major purpose of this paper is to illustrate the theoretical development of EHM. Due to page limitation, a case study with the reliability field data is presented in the applications part of this study.

I got drunk and lost my virginity : young women's magazines and the management of sexual identity

It has often been argued that young woman’s magazine’s, like Cosmopolitan, Cleo Dolly and Seventeen, constitute a significant instrument in the patriarchal repression of young women - their hegemonic success lying in the fact that they appear to be sites wherein young women are ‘free’ from the elements of coercion so obviously in evidence within other terrains, such as the school and the family. This paper will suggest an alternative approach to these magazines. Rather than locating such texts within an overall model of repression and patriarchal domination, it will be argued here that they can be regarded as practical manuals which enrol young women to do specific kinds of work on themselves. In doing so, they form an effective link between the governmental imperatives aimed at constructing particular personas (such as, for example, ‘the sexually responsible young woman’), and the actual practices whereby these imperatives are operationalised. These manuals do not prevent young women from learning to ‘project a unique self’, they constitute a significant source of practices and techniques through which particular types of self are shaped.

The family attitude scale : reliability and validity of a new scale for measuring the emotional climate of families

Research on outcomes from psychiatric disorders has highlighted the importance of expressed emotion (EE), but its cost-effective measurement remains a challenge. This article describes development of the Family Attitude Scale (FAS), a 30-item instrument that can be completed by any informant. Its psychometric characteristics are reported in parents of undergraduate students and in 70 families with a schizophrenic member. The total FAS had high internal consistency in all samples, and reports of angry behaviour in FAS items showed acceptable inter-rater agreement. The FAS was associated with the reported anger, anger expression and anxiety of respondents. Substantial associations between the parents' FAS and the anger and anger expression of students was also observed. Parents of schizophrenic patients had higher FAS scores than parents of students, and the FAS was higher if disorder duration was longer or patient functioning was poorer. Hostility, high criticism and low warmth on the Camberwell Family Interview (CFI) were associated with a more negative FAS. The highest FAS in the family was a good predictor of a highly critical environment on the CFI. The FAS is a reliable and valid indicator of relationship stress and expressed anger that has wide applicability.

Mechanisms of improvement in treatment for depression : test of a self-efficacy and performance model

Tested D. J. Kavanagh's (1983) depression model's explanation of response to cognitive-behavioral treatment among 19 20–60 yr old Ss who received treatment and 24 age-matched Ss who were assigned to a waiting list. Measures included the Beck Depression Inventory and self-efficacy (SE) and self-monitoring scales. Rises in SE and self-monitored performance of targeted skills were closely associated with the improved depression scores of treated Ss. Improvements in the depression of waiting list Ss occurred through random, uncontrolled events rather than via a systematic increase in specific skills targeted in treatment. SE regarding assertion also predicted depression scores over a 12-wk follow-up.

The Explicit Hazard Model – Part 2 : Applications

Hazard and reliability prediction of an engineering asset is one of the significant fields of research in Engineering Asset Health Management (EAHM). In real-life situations where an engineering asset operates under dynamic operational and environmental conditions, the lifetime of an engineering asset can be influenced and/or indicated by different factors that are termed as covariates. The Explicit Hazard Model (EHM) as a covariate-based hazard model is a new approach for hazard prediction which explicitly incorporates both internal and external covariates into one model. EHM is an appropriate model to use in the analysis of lifetime data in presence of both internal and external covariates in the reliability field. This paper presents applications of the methodology which is introduced and illustrated in the theory part of this study. In this paper, the semi-parametric EHM is applied to a case study so as to predict the hazard and reliability of resistance elements on a Resistance Corrosion Sensor Board (RCSB).

A model of project complexity : distinguishing dimensions of complexity from severity

There is increasing agreement that understanding complexity is important for project management because of difficulties associated with decision-making and goal attainment which appear to stem from complexity. However the current operational definitions of complex projects, based upon size and budget, have been challenged and questions have been raised about how complexity can be measured in a robust manner that takes account of structural, dynamic and interaction elements. Thematic analysis of data from 25 in-depth interviews of project managers involved with complex projects, together with an exploration of the literature reveals a wide range of factors that may contribute to project complexity. We argue that these factors contributing to project complexity may define in terms of dimensions, or source characteristics, which are in turn subject to a range of severity factors. In addition to investigating definitions and models of complexity from the literature and in the field, this study also explores the problematic issues of ‘measuring’ or assessing complexity. A research agenda is proposed to further the investigation of phenomena reported in this initial study.

Explaining International new venture internationalisation: an innovation adoption model

The increasing prevalence of International New Ventures (INVs) during the past twenty years has been highlighted by numerous studies (Knight and Cavusgil, 1996, Moen, 2002). International New Ventures are firms, typically small to medium enterprises, that internationalise within six years of inception (Oviatt and McDougall, 1997). To date there has been no general consensus within the literature on a theoretical framework of internationalisation to explain the internationalisation process of INVs (Madsen and Servais, 1997). However, some researchers have suggested that the innovation diffusion model may provide a suitable theoretical framework (Chetty & Hamilton, 1996, Fan & Phan, 2007).The proposed model was based on the existing and well-established innovation diffusion theories drawn from consumer behaviour and internationalisation literature to explain the internationalisation process of INVs (Lim, Sharkey, and Kim, 1991, Reid, 1981, Robertson, 1971, Rogers, 1962, Wickramasekera and Oczkowski, 2006). The results of this analysis indicated that the synthesied model of export adoption was effective in explaining the internationalisation process of INVs within the Queensland Food and Beverage Industry. Significantly the results of the analysis also indicated that features of the original I-models developed in the consumer behaviour literature, that had limited examination within the internationalisation literature were confirmed. This includes the ability of firms, or specifically decision-makers, to skip stages based om previous experience.

Towards a model of the institutional logics of climate change

The proliferation of innovative schemes to address climate change at international, national and local levels signals a fundamental shift in the priority and role of the natural environment to society, organizations and individuals. This shift in shared priorities invites academics and practitioners to consider the role of institutions in shaping and constraining responses to climate change at multiple levels of organisations and society. Institutional theory provides an approach to conceptualising and addressing climate change challenges by focusing on the central logics that guide society, organizations and individuals and their material and symbolic relationship to the environment. For example, framing a response to climate change in the form of an emission trading scheme evidences a practice informed by a capitalist market logic (Friedland and Alford 1991). However, not all responses need necessarily align with a market logic. Indeed, Thornton (2004) identifies six broad societal sectors each with its own logic (markets, corporations, professions, states, families, religions). Hence, understanding the logics that underpin successful –and unsuccessful– climate change initiatives contributes to revealing how institutions shape and constrain practices, and provides valuable insights for policy makers and organizations. This paper develops models and propositions to consider the construction of, and challenges to, climate change initiatives based on institutional logics (Thornton and Ocasio 2008). We propose that the challenge of understanding and explaining how climate change initiatives are successfully adopted be examined in terms of their institutional logics, and how these logics evolve over time. To achieve this, a multi-level framework of analysis that encompasses society, organizations and individuals is necessary (Friedland and Alford 1991). However, to date most extant studies of institutional logics have tended to emphasize one level over the others (Thornton and Ocasio 2008: 104). In addition, existing studies related to climate change initiatives have largely been descriptive (e.g. Braun 2008) or prescriptive (e.g. Boiral 2006) in terms of the suitability of particular practices. This paper contributes to the literature on logics by examining multiple levels: the proliferation of the climate change agenda provides a site in which to study how institutional logics are played out across multiple, yet embedded levels within society through institutional forums in which change takes place. Secondly, the paper specifically examines how institutional logics provide society with organising principles –material practices and symbolic constructions– which enable and constrain their actions and help define their motives and identity. Based on this model, we develop a series of propositions of the conditions required for the successful introduction of climate change initiatives. The paper proceeds as follows. We present a review of literature related to institutional logics and develop a generic model of the process of the operation of institutional logics. We then consider how this is applied to key initiatives related to climate change. Finally, we develop a series of propositions which might guide insights into the successful implementation of climate change practices.

Entrepreneurship and family firms : growth and survival

Family businesses dominate in a majority of economies (Astrachan and Shanker, 2003; Chrisman, Chua, and Sharma, 2005; Morck and Yeung, 2004). As entrepreneurial activities have been shown to be central to economic growth it is essential that family businesses, irrespective of ownership patterns, not only survive but also grow thus growing the economy overall. While a great deal is known about entrepreneurial activities and a body of knowledge is being developed in relation to entrepreneurial processes in family firms, more needs to be understood in relation to the dynamics of entrepreneurial activities at the individual family firm level. One area of particular interest is the dynamics within the business and the family and how these dynamics impact upon entrepreneurial activities. Specifically how relationships between and among family members engaged in the business can interact with professional non-family member senior executives. The senior executives can actively use their positions in such ways that initiatives suggested by family members are less successful than they might be. This paper addresses how ‘family’ aspects of a business can assist or impede the entrepreneurial activities of individuals. It takes into account some of the unique features of family businesses – such as the importance of ‘familiness’ as a competitive advantage; the direct links between ownership and control of a business and the recognition (often implicit) that individuals in families do make a difference to how the business functions (Habbershon and Williams, 1999, Sharma, 2004; and Tokarczyk, Hansen Green, and Down, 2007). This emphasis on individuals in families fits well with the idea of entrepreneur as individual, as expressed by Schumpeter (1934), Baumol et al (2007). The theoretical approach that adopted to explore the dynamics of processes occurring within family firms is structuration theory combined with a theory of embeddeness (Dacin, Ventresca and Beal, 1999; Giddens, 1979, 1984, Jack and Anderson, 2002; and Sarason, Dean and Dillard, 2006).

Integrated Diagnosis and Prognosis Model for High Pressure LNG Pump

In condition-based maintenance (CBM), effective diagnostics and prognostics are essential tools for maintenance engineers to identify imminent fault and to predict the remaining useful life before the components finally fail. This enables remedial actions to be taken in advance and reschedules production if necessary. This paper presents a technique for accurate assessment of the remnant life of machines based on historical failure knowledge embedded in the closed loop diagnostic and prognostic system. The technique uses the Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier for both fault diagnosis and evaluation of health stages of machine degradation. To validate the feasibility of the proposed model, the five different level data of typical four faults from High Pressure Liquefied Natural Gas (HP-LNG) pumps were used for multi-class fault diagnosis. In addition, two sets of impeller-rub data were analysed and employed to predict the remnant life of pump based on estimation of health state. The results obtained were very encouraging and showed that the proposed prognosis system has the potential to be used as an estimation tool for machine remnant life prediction in real life industrial applications.

The right person, in the right job, with the right skills, at the right time. A workforce-planning model that goes beyond metrics

Purpose – The paper aims to describe a workforce-planning model developed in-house in an Australian university library that is based on rigorous environmental scanning of an institution, the profession and the sector. Design/methodology/approach – The paper uses a case study that describes the stages of the planning process undertaken to develop the Library’s Workforce Plan and the documentation produced. Findings – While it has been found that the process has had successful and productive outcomes, workforce planning is an ongoing process. To remain effective, the workforce plan needs to be reviewed annually in the context of the library’s overall planning program. This is imperative if the plan is to remain current and to be regarded as a living document that will continue to guide library practice. Research limitations/implications – Although a single case study, the work has been contextualized within the wider research into workforce planning. Practical implications – The paper provides a model that can easily be deployed within a library without external or specialist consultant skills, and due to its scalability can be applied at department or wider level. Originality/value – The paper identifies the trends impacting on, and the emerging opportunities for, university libraries and provides a model for workforce planning that recognizes the context and culture of the organization as key drivers in determining workforce planning. Keywords - Australia, University libraries, Academic libraries, Change management, Manpower planning Paper type - Case study

A model to predict hypovigilance during a monotonous task

The driving task requires sustained attention during prolonged periods, and can be performed in highly predictable or repetitive environments. Such conditions could create drowsiness or hypovigilance and impair the ability to react to critical events. Identifying vigilance decrement in monotonous conditions has been a major subject of research, but no research to date has attempted to predict this vigilance decrement. This pilot study aims to show that vigilance decrements due to monotonous tasks can be predicted through mathematical modelling. A short vigilance task sensitive to short periods of lapses of vigilance called Sustained Attention to Response Task is used to assess participants’ performance. This task models the driver’s ability to cope with unpredicted events by performing the expected action. A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is proposed to predict participants’ hypovigilance. Driver’s vigilance evolution is modelled as a hidden state and is correlated to an observable variable: the participant’s reactions time. This experiment shows that the monotony of the task can lead to an important vigilance decline in less than five minutes. This impairment can be predicted four minutes in advance with an 86% accuracy using HMMs. This experiment showed that mathematical models such as HMM can efficiently predict hypovigilance through surrogate measures. The presented model could result in the development of an in-vehicle device that detects driver hypovigilance in advance and warn the driver accordingly, thus offering the potential to enhance road safety and prevent road crashes.

A sustainable model for university-industry learning partnership : Issues for universities

Using work integrated learning (WIL) in university-industry learning partnerships as a means of developing the deeper and more complex skills of managers is receiving growing interest in the literature. This paper suggests that there are currently, two basic approaches to WIL – the traditional model and the customisation model. While each has strengths, each also has limitations. Responding the call of Patrick et al (2008) for more discussion and research on WIL stratagems, this paper proposes a third model – the sustainable learning partnership – as an option to encourage deeper, more complex and more long-term capacity building in management development.

Collaborative recovery: An integrative model for working with individuals that experience chronic or recurring mental illness.

Objectives: Recovery is an emerging movement in mental health. Evidence for recovery-based approaches is not well developed and approaches to implement recovery-oriented services are not well articulated. The collaborative recovery model (CRM) is presented as a model that assists clinicians to use evidence-based skills with consumers, in a manner consistent with the recovery movement. A current 5 year multisite Australian study to evaluate the effectiveness of CRM is briefly described. Conclusion: The collaborative recovery model puts into practice several aspects of policy regarding recovery-oriented services, using evidence-based practices to assist individuals who have chronic or recurring mental disorders (CRMD). It is argued that this model provides an integrative framework combining (i) evidence-based practice; (ii) manageable and modularized competencies relevant to case management and psychosocial rehabilitation contexts; and (iii) recognition of the subjective experiences of consumers.