Economic voting and electoral volatility in Turkish provinces

Two groups of questions were addressed in this paper: (1) Is voter punishment of the incumbent the primary factor in electoral volatility? Are there any other types of vote swings that underlie volatility? (2) In general, does a decline in economic growth destabilize voter behavior? If so, what kinds of vote swings does an economic downturn tend to generate? Provincial-level panel data analysis yielded the following results: (1) Changes in volatility is primarily due to vote swings from the incumbent to the opposition and also to and from left-wing and right-wing parties. (2) Lower economic growth increases electoral volatility. Economic decline induces vote swings not only from the government to the opposition but also from left-wing to right-wing parties. This is probably because right-wing parties seem more concerned with economic issues and are thus more popular than left-wing parties with lower-income voters.

北インド，東部ウッタル・プラデーシュ州における開発行政と村人

インドの農村開発においては、州政府による開発行政とパンチャーヤット制度を通じる住民の参加が大きな役割をするものと伝統的に期待されてきたが、実際は多くの州で目立った実績はあげられなかったといってよい。特に北インドではそうである。しかし1992年末の憲法第73次改正で「パンチャーヤット制度」が強化され，それに伴って開発行政の位置づけも変化したことで、沈滞気味であった開発行政の様相にも変化が現れることが期待された。本稿はこのような位相にある北インド、ウッタ ル・プラデーシュ州の東部の２つの県において、フィールド調査に基づいて「郡開発室」という農村開発行政の末端の現状を農民の視点から評価する。調査結果から開発行政による財やサービスの供給には様々な問題点があることが明らかになるが、そのような状況で村民がどのような選択を行っているか示される。

The Feasibility of Cuban Market Economy: A Comparison with Vietnam

In spite of the difficulties incurred by its people, Cuba has maintained a centrally planned economy with single party system. On the contrary, Vietnam has introduced a market economy under communist rule, and succeeded in generally improving living standards. The factors that contributed to the introduction of Vietnamese-style reforms are (1) severe economic crisis, (2) demonstration effects from neighboring countries, (3) poor social policy, (4) initiatives by ex-conservative leader/s, and (5) weak state capacity. The conditions to sustain high economic growth are (1) social sectors familiar with capitalist economics, (2) abundant labor forces with relatively low labor cost, and (3) investment by exiles. This paper analyzes to what extent Cuba meets these conditions.

In Memory of Dr. Ali Al-Gritly (1913-1982): His Views on Egypt's experience with Socialism

This essay reexamines the great contributions made by Dr. Ali Al-Gritly to Egypt. He was the finance minister for a short period at the beginning of the 1950s and later was appointed as chairman of the Bank of Alexandria. In 1966, he completed a book (Al-Gritly [1966 (1974)]) on the economic history of Egypt. However, the book was banned from publication due to irresistible circumstances. At that time, with Arab Socialism on the ascendance, his views on certain policies were not welcomed by the top political hierarchy. In 1974, the book was finally allowed to be published, and he wrote and published another book in 1977 (Al-Gritly [1977]) on the development of the Open Door Policy and the new economic policies accompanying it.

Constitutional Review and Democratic Consolidation: A Literature Review

This paper reviews the literature on the prevalence of constitutional review across the world, and particularly in emerging democracies, during the last two decades. Two major questions should be addressed in this regard. First, why has the judiciary been empowered and what factors affect judicial activism? Second, does constitutional review ensure an effective self-enforcing function? In sum, the literature shows that constitutional review can make democracy self-enforcing if there is sufficient competition among political parties or between the legislature and the executive branch of government. In a more sophisticated case, political balance within the court can also ensure the observance of court decisions.

Vietnamese Local State-owned Enterprises (SOEs) at the Crossroads: Implications of SOE Restructuring at the Local Level

This paper aims to capture the changing features of local SOEs under the national SOE restructuring program in the 2000s. The national policy on SOE reform in this phase had an effect of considerably clarifying and narrowing down the raison d'être of SOEs, which has been put into practice at the local level through provincial master plans. Consequently, some signs of an important change are observed: the structure of the local SOE sector is being standardized to a certain extent, and the remaining local SOEs are becoming more geared to the needs of a market economy. This trend would have far-reaching implications for the policy implementation and public service delivery by localities, which in turn would affect the long-term development of non-state sectors.

Ethnicity and Elections under Authoritarianism: The Case of Kazakhstan

Despite the ethnicisation of power since independence in 1991, Kazakhstan has managed to maintain political stability without experiencing large-scale mobilisation to oppose Kazakh domination. This paper examines government strategy to avoid ethnic voting in an attempt to explain why ethnic divisions were rarely reflected in the struggle for power in the republic. While the arbitrary use of legal provisions considerably limited participation in elections by ethnic leaders, powerful pro-president parties that exhibited a cross-ethnic character were created to curtail ethnically based movements. The control strategy in elections aimed not simply at ethnicising the parliament in favour of Kazakhs, but at having loyal Russians and other minorities represented in the legislature through nomination by the president and catch-all pro-regime parties, or through the presidential consultative body—Assembly of the People of Kazakhstan. This well-controlled representation of minorities served not only to placate non-Kazakhs but also to provide legitimacy for the Kazakh-dominated leadership by projecting the image of cross-ethnic support for the president and some degree of power-sharing.

Perfecting the Catching-up: The Case of Taiwan's Motorcycle Industry

The final stage of the catching-up process has formidable hurdles. This paper examines the case of Taiwan’s motorcycle industry and shows how latecomers overcame the hurdles. In the early 1990s, the two largest motorcycle makers in Taiwan, Sanyang and Kwang Yang, had completed the catching-up process and became independent from Honda, on which they had technologically depended since the early 1960s. The requisite for independence was acquiring the capacity for product innovation. The two assemblers could cultivate technological capacity by investing abundant resources, which they accumulated in the protected market. It should be noted that although the market was protected and highly concentrated, it was also very competitive. Another condition was the solid local suppliers of parts and components. The local suppliers had also grown under the government’s industrial policies. However, their development beyond imitators can be attributed to their own initiatives.

Normative Influences of "Special and Differential Treatment" on North-South RTAs

Recently, there has been a surge in bilateral and regional trade arrangements between developed and developing countries, which are known as North-South RTAs. Under the current legal system of the WTO, North-South RTAs are governed by Article XXIV of the GATT or Article V of the GATS, which means such RTAs must be reciprocal and must cover substantially all the trade. On the other hand, there is another category of rules on RTAs based on the so-called Enabling Clause, which, in exceptional circumstances, provides special and differential treatment (SDT) for RTAs among developing countries. This paper considers the applicability of the SDT concept to North-South RTAs by examining why rules on RTAs and the concept of SDT were incorporated into the GATT/WTO legal framework so as to permit the derogation of most-favored-nation (MFN) obligations.

Pakistani Migration to the United States:An Economic Perspective

The 9-11 attack on the US brought a set of changes in overseas migration from Pakistan. One such change is the sharp increase in remittances sent from the United States. The paper argues that the characteristics of remittances from the United States differ from those originating in the Middle East. Just as the overseas Pakistani communities are diversified, the nature and characteristics of remittances are heterogeneous, depending on where they come from and who sends them. While the importance of remittance flows from the United States is rising, not much academic attention has been paid to this issue because of a lack of data. To better understand the reasons behind the increase in US remittances, and in order to evaluate their sustainability, household surveys are necessary.

Deprivation of Education in Urban Areas: A Basic Profile of Slum Children in Delhi, India

This paper showed the basic educational status of slum children between 5 and 14 years old. The attendance ratio of slum children is much lower than that of children in Delhi as a whole. Parental perception of education and financing education are the major constraints. Even if children are attending schools, the majority of them are over-aged. There are both demand and supply side reasons for discouraging slum children from attending schooling. As opposed to school-based surveys in previous literature, children in slums are more likely to go to government schools rather than low-fee paying private schools. Some policies are suggested.

An Empirical Analysis of the Monetary Policy Reaction Function in India

This paper empirically analyzes India’s monetary policy reaction function by applying the Taylor (1993) rule and its open-economy version which employs dynamic OLS. The analysis uses monthly data from the period of April 1998 to December 2007. When the simple Taylor rule was estimated for India, the output gap coefficient was statistically significant, and its sign condition was found to be consistent with theoretical rationale; however, the same was not true of the inflation coefficient. When the Taylor rule with exchange rate was estimated, the coefficients of output gap and exchange rate had statistical significance with the expected signs, whereas the results of inflation remained the same as before. Therefore, the inflation rate has not played a role in the conduct of India’s monetary policy, and it is inappropriate for India to adopt an inflation-target type policy framework.

Structural Changes in Asparagus Production and Exports from Peru

Asparagus is the star product among non-traditional agricultural exports (NTAXs) in Peru. The export of preserved asparagus has expanded since the end of the 1980s. Although there was some stagnation in the mid-1990s, exports of fresh asparagus have expanded rapidly since the end of the 1990s. Now, the export of both preserved and fresh asparagus constitute the second most important agricultural export in Peru after coffee. Besides the change in demand on the international market, the important factor behind the shift from preserved to fresh asparagus is the change in the supply structure of asparagus. In the case of preserved asparagus, Peruvian exports expanded because of Peru’s competitiveness, which originated from favorable production factors, such as climate, soil and labor. However, because of the growing presence of Chinese products on the international market, Peru’s products lost their competitiveness. In the case of fresh asparagus, the investment of agricultural corporations in production and their innovation in integrating different economic processes from the point of production to the time of export built a successful supply structure that is suited for the export of fresh agricultural produce.