A Model-Based Approach for Making Ecological Inference from Distance Sampling Data

We consider a fully model-based approach for the analysis of distance sampling data. Distance sampling has been widely used to estimate abundance (or density) of animals or plants in a spatially explicit study area. There is, however, no readily available method of making statistical inference on the relationships between abundance and environmental covariates. Spatial Poisson process likelihoods can be used to simultaneously estimate detection and intensity parameters by modeling distance sampling data as a thinned spatial point process. A model-based spatial approach to distance sampling data has three main benefits: it allows complex and opportunistic transect designs to be employed, it allows estimation of abundance in small subregions, and it provides a framework to assess the effects of habitat or experimental manipulation on density. We demonstrate the model-based methodology with a small simulation study and analysis of the Dubbo weed data set. In addition, a simple ad hoc method for handling overdispersion is also proposed. The simulation study showed that the model-based approach compared favorably to conventional distance sampling methods for abundance estimation. In addition, the overdispersion correction performed adequately when the number of transects was high. Analysis of the Dubbo data set indicated a transect effect on abundance via Akaike’s information criterion model selection. Further goodness-of-fit analysis, however, indicated some potential confounding of intensity with the detection function.

MATERIAL MODELING AND ANALYSIS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A REALISTIC BLAST HEADFORM

Blast traumatic brain injury (BTBI) has become an important topic of study because of the increase of such incidents, especially due to the recent growth of improvised explosive devices (IEDs). This thesis discusses a project in which laboratory testing of BTBI was made possible by performing blast loading on experimental models simulating the human head. Three versions of experimental models were prepared – one having a simple geometry and the other two having geometry similar to a human head. For developing the head models, three important parts of the head were considered for material modeling and analysis – the skin, skull and brain. The materials simulating skin, skull and brain went through many testing procedures including dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA). For finding a suitable brain simulant, several materials were tested under low and high frequencies. Step response analysis, rheometry and DMA tests were performed on materials such as water based gels, oil based mixtures and silicone gels cured at different temperatures. The gelatins and silicone gels showed promising results toward their use as brain surrogate materials. Temperature degradation tests were performed on gelatins, indicating the fast degradation of gelatins at room temperature. Silicone gels were much more stable compared to the water based gels. Silicone gels were further processed using a thinner-type additive gel to bring the dynamic modulus values closer to those of human brain matter. The obtained values from DMA were compared to the values for human brain as found in literature. Then a silicone rubber brain mold was prepared to give the brain model accurate geometry. All the components were put together to make the entire head model. A steel mount was prepared to attach the head for testing at the end of the shock tube. Instrumentation was implemented in the head model to obtain effective results for understanding more about the possible mechanisms of BTBI. The final head model was named the Realistic Explosive Dummy Head or the “RED Head.” The RED Head offered potential for realistic experimental testing in blast loading conditions by virtue of its material properties and geometrical accuracy.

Effects of arterial oxygen tension and cardiac output on venous saturation: a mathematical modeling approach

OBJECTIVES: Hemodynamic support is aimed at providing adequate O-2 delivery to the tissues; most interventions target O-2 delivery increase. Mixed venous O-2 saturation is a frequently used parameter to evaluate the adequacy of O-2 delivery. METHODS: We describe a mathematical model to compare the effects of increasing O-2 delivery on venous oxygen saturation through increases in the inspired O-2 fraction versus increases in cardiac output. The model was created based on the lungs, which were divided into shunted and non-shunted areas, and on seven peripheral compartments, each with normal values of perfusion, optimal oxygen consumption, and critical O-2 extraction rate. O-2 delivery was increased by changing the inspired fraction of oxygen from 0.21 to 1.0 in steps of 0.1 under conditions of low (2.0 L.min(-1)) or normal (6.5 L.min(-1)) cardiac output. The same O-2 delivery values were also obtained by maintaining a fixed O-2 inspired fraction value of 0.21 while changing cardiac output. RESULTS: Venous oxygen saturation was higher when produced through increases in inspired O-2 fraction versus increases in cardiac output, even at the same O-2 delivery and consumption values. Specifically, at high inspired O-2 fractions, the measured O-2 saturation values failed to detect conditions of low oxygen supply. CONCLUSIONS: The mode of O-2 delivery optimization, specifically increases in the fraction of inspired oxygen versus increases in cardiac output, can compromise the capability of the "venous O-2 saturation" parameter to measure the adequacy of oxygen supply. Consequently, venous saturation at high inspired O-2 fractions should be interpreted with caution.

Linear matrix inequality-based robust model predictive control for time-delayed systems

This work addresses the solution to the problem of robust model predictive control (MPC) of systems with model uncertainty. The case of zone control of multi-variable stable systems with multiple time delays is considered. The usual approach of dealing with this kind of problem is through the inclusion of non-linear cost constraint in the control problem. The control action is then obtained at each sampling time as the solution to a non-linear programming (NLP) problem that for high-order systems can be computationally expensive. Here, the robust MPC problem is formulated as a linear matrix inequality problem that can be solved in real time with a fraction of the computer effort. The proposed approach is compared with the conventional robust MPC and tested through the simulation of a reactor system of the process industry.

Development and evolution of caste dimorphism in honeybees - a modeling approach

The difference in phenotypes of queens and workers is a hallmark of the highly eusocial insects. The caste dimorphism is often described as a switch-controlled polyphenism, in which environmental conditions decide an individual's caste. Using theoretical modeling and empirical data from honeybees, we show that there is no discrete larval developmental switch. Instead, a combination of larval developmental plasticity and nurse worker feeding behavior make up a colony-level social and physiological system that regulates development and produces the caste dimorphism. Discrete queen and worker phenotypes are the result of discrete feeding regimes imposed by nurses, whereas a range of experimental feeding regimes produces a continuous range of phenotypes. Worker ovariole numbers are reduced through feeding-regime-mediated reduction in juvenile hormone titers, involving reduced sugar in the larval food. Based on the mechanisms identified in our analysis, we propose a scenario of the evolutionary history of honeybee development and feeding regimes.

Flexibility and modeling in business processes: a multi-dimensional relationship

Over the last few years, Business Process Management (BPM) has achieved increasing popularity and dissemination. An analysis of the underlying assumptions of BPM shows that it pursues two apparently contradicting goals: on the one hand it aims at formalising work practices into business process models; on the other hand, it intends to confer flexibility to the organization - i.e. to maintain its ability to respond to new and unforeseen situations. This paper analyses the relationship between formalisation and flexibility in business process modelling by means of an empirical case study of a BPM project in an aircraft maintenance company. A qualitative approach is adopted based on the Actor-Network Theory. The paper offers two major contributions: (a) it illustrates the sociotechnical complexity involved in BPM initiatives; (b) it points towards a multidimensional understanding of the relation between formalization and flexibility in BPM projects.

A Model-Based Approach for Small-Signal Stability Assessment of Unbalanced Power Systems

In this paper, a modeling technique for small-signal stability assessment of unbalanced power systems is presented. Since power distribution systems are inherently unbalanced, due to its lines and loads characteristics, and the penetration of distributed generation into these systems is increasing nowadays, such a tool is needed in order to ensure a secure and reliable operation of these systems. The main contribution of this paper is the development of a phasor-based model for the study of dynamic phenomena in unbalanced power systems. Using an assumption on the net torque of the generator, it is possible to precisely define an equilibrium point for the phasor model of the system, thus enabling its linearization around this point, and, consequently, its eigenvalue/eigenvector analysis for small-signal stability assessment. The modeling technique presented here was compared to the dynamic behavior observed in ATP simulations and the results show that, for the generator and controller models used, the proposed modeling approach is adequate and yields reliable and precise results.

Modeling the exergy behavior of human body

Exergy analysis is applied to assess the energy conversion processes that take place in the human body, aiming at developing indicators of health and performance based on the concepts of exergy destroyed rate and exergy efficiency. The thermal behavior of the human body is simulated by a model composed of 15 cylinders with elliptical cross section representing: head, neck, trunk, arms, forearms, hands, thighs, legs, and feet. For each, a combination of tissues is considered. The energy equation is solved for each cylinder, being possible to obtain transitory response from the body due to a variation in environmental conditions. With this model, it is possible to obtain heat and mass flow rates to the environment due to radiation, convection, evaporation and respiration. The exergy balances provide the exergy variation due to heat and mass exchange over the body, and the exergy variation over time for each compartments tissue and blood, the sum of which leads to the total variation of the body. Results indicate that exergy destroyed and exergy efficiency decrease over lifespan and the human body is more efficient and destroys less exergy in lower relative humidities and higher temperatures. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling the Potential Geographic Distribution of Black Pepper (Piper nigrum) in Asia Using GIS Tools

Known as the "king of spices", black pepper (Piper nigrum), a perennial crop of the tropics, is economically the most important and the most widely used spice crop in the world. To understand its suitable bioclimatic distribution, maximum entropy based on ecological niche modeling was used to model the bioclimatic niches of the species in its Asian range. Based on known occurrences, bioclimatic areas with higher probabilities are mainly located in the eastern and western coasts of the Indian Peninsula, the east of Sumatra Island, some areas in the Malay Archipelago, and the southeast coastal areas of China. Some undocumented places were also predicted as suitable areas. According to the jackknife procedure, the minimum temperature of the coldest month, the mean monthly temperature range, and the precipitation of the wettest month were identified as highly effective factors in the distribution of black pepper and could possibly account for the crop's distribution pattern. Such climatic requirements inhibited this species from dispersing and gaining a larger geographical range.

Modified constraint-induced movement therapy and modified forced-use therapy for stroke patients are both effective to promote balance and gait improvements

Background: Previous studies show that chronic hemiparetic patients after stroke, presents inabilities to perform movements in paretic hemibody. This inability is induced by positive reinforcement of unsuccessful attempts, a concept called learned non-use. Forced use therapy (FUT) and constraint induced movement therapy (CIMT) were developed with the goal of reversing the learned non-use. These approaches have been proposed for the rehabilitation of the paretic upper limb (PUL). It is unknown what would be the possible effects of these approaches in the rehabilitation of gait and balance. Objectives: To evaluate the effect of Modified FUT (mFUT) and Modified CIMT (mCIMT) on the gait and balance during four weeks of treatment and 3 months follow-up. Methods: This study included thirty-seven hemiparetic post-stroke subjects that were randomly allocated into two groups based on the treatment protocol. The non-paretic UL was immobilized for a period of 23 hours per day, five days a week. Participants were evaluated at Baseline, 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th weeks, and three months after randomization. For the evaluation we used: The Stroke Impact Scale (SIS), Berg Balance Scale (BBS) and Fugl-Meyer Motor Assessment (FM). Gait was analyzed by the 10-meter walk test (T10) and Timed Up & Go test (TUG). Results: Both groups revealed a better health status (SIS), better balance, better use of lower limb (BBS and FM) and greater speed in gait (T10 and TUG), during the weeks of treatment and months of follow-up, compared to the baseline. Conclusion: The results show mFUT and mCIMT are effective in the rehabilitation of balance and gait. Trial Registration ACTRN12611000411943.

ESTIMATING REACTION CONSTANTS BY AB INITIO MOLECULAR MODELING: A STUDY ON THE OXIDATION OF PHENOL TO CATECHOL AND HYDROQUINONE IN ADVANCED OXIDATION PROCESSES

Molecular modeling is growing as a research tool in Chemical Engineering studies, as can be seen by a simple research on the latest publications in the field. Molecular investigations retrieve information on properties often accessible only by expensive and time-consuming experimental techniques, such as those involved in the study of radical-based chain reactions. In this work, different quantum chemical techniques were used to study phenol oxidation by hydroxyl radicals in Advanced Oxidation Processes used for wastewater treatment. The results obtained by applying a DFT-based model showed good agreement with experimental values available, as well as qualitative insights into the mechanism of the overall reaction chain. Solvation models were also tried, but were found to be limited for this reaction system within the considered theoretical level without further parameterization.

Period adding cascades: Experiment and modeling in air bubbling

Period adding cascades have been observed experimentally/numerically in the dynamics of neurons and pancreatic cells, lasers, electric circuits, chemical reactions, oceanic internal waves, and also in air bubbling. We show that the period adding cascades appearing in bubbling from a nozzle submerged in a viscous liquid can be reproduced by a simple model, based on some hydrodynamical principles, dealing with the time evolution of two variables, bubble position and pressure of the air chamber, through a system of differential equations with a rule of detachment based on force balance. The model further reduces to an iterating one-dimensional map giving the pressures at the detachments, where time between bubbles come out as an observable of the dynamics. The model has not only good agreement with experimental data, but is also able to predict the influence of the main parameters involved, like the length of the hose connecting the air supplier with the needle, the needle radius and the needle length. (C) 2012 American Institute of Physics. [http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.3695345]

Improving Planting Stocks for the Brazilian Atlantic Forest Restoration through Community-Based Seed Harvesting Strategies

High-diversity reforestation can help jumpstart tropical forest restoration, but obtaining viable seedlings is a major constraint: if nurseries do not offer them, it is hard to plant all the species one would like. From 2007 to 2009, we investigated five different seed acquisition strategies employed by a well-established tree nursery in southeastern Brazil, namely (1) in-house seed harvesters; (2) hiring a professional harvester; (3) amateur seed harvesters; or (4) a seed production cooperative, as well as (5) participating in a seed exchange program. In addition, we evaluated two strategies not dependent on seeds: harvesting seedlings from native tree species found regenerating under Eucalyptus plantations, and in a native forest remnant. A total of 344 native tree and shrub species were collected as seeds or seedlings, including 2,465 seed lots. Among these, a subset of 120 species was obtained through seed harvesting in each year. Overall, combining several strategies for obtaining planting stocks was an effective way to increase species richness, representation of some functional groups (dispersal syndromes, planting group, and shade tolerance), and genetic diversity of seedlings produced in forest tree nurseries. Such outcomes are greatly desirable to support high-diversity reforestation as part of tropical forest restoration. In addition, community-based seed harvesting strategies fostered greater socioeconomic integration of traditional communities in restoration projects and programs, which is an important bottleneck for the advance of ecological restoration, especially in developing countries. Finally, we discuss some of the limitations of the various strategies for obtaining planting stocks and the way forward for their improvement.

Modeling and Identification of an Open-frame Underwater Vehicle: The Yaw Motion Dynamics

A semi-autonomous unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV), named LAURS, is being developed at the Laboratory of Sensors and Actuators at the University of Sao Paulo. The vehicle has been designed to provide inspection and intervention capabilities in specific missions of deep water oil fields. In this work, a method of modeling and identification of yaw motion dynamic system model of an open-frame underwater vehicle is presented. Using an on-board low cost magnetic compass sensor the method is based on the utilization of an uncoupled 1-DOF (degree of freedom) dynamic system equation and the application of the integral method which is the classical least squares algorithm applied to the integral form of the dynamic system equations. Experimental trials with the actual vehicle have been performed in a test tank and diving pool. During these experiments, thrusters responsible for yaw motion are driven by sinusoidal voltage signal profiles. An assessment of the feasibility of the method reveals that estimated dynamic system models are more reliable when considering slow and small sinusoidal voltage signal profiles, i.e. with larger periods and with relatively small amplitude and offset.

Modeling and identification of freeplay nonlinearity

A nonlinear analysis is performed for the purpose of identification of the pitch freeplay nonlinearity and its effect on the type of bifurcation of a two degree-of-freedom aeroelastic system. The databases for the identification are generated from experimental investigations of a pitch-plunge rigid airfoil supported by a nonlinear torsional spring. Experimental data and linear analysis are performed to validate the parameters of the linearized equations. Based on the periodic responses of the experimental data which included the flutter frequency and its third harmonics, the freeplay nonlinearity is approximated by a polynomial expansion up to the third order. This representation allows us to use the normal form of the Hopf bifurcation to characterize the type of instability. Based on numerical integrations, the coefficients of the polynomial expansion representing the freeplay nonlinearity are identified. Published by Elsevier Ltd.