Contrasting tree-ring data with fire record in a pine-dominated landscape in the Komi Republic (Eastern European Russia) : recovering a common climate signal

Abstract

Climate Change or Land Use Dynamics: Do We Know What Climate Change Indicators Indicate?

Different components of global change can have interacting effects on biodiversity and this may influence our ability to detect the specific consequences of climate change through biodiversity indicators. Here, we analyze whether climate change indicators can be affected by land use dynamics that are not directly determined by climate change. To this aim, we analyzed three community-level indicators of climate change impacts that are based on the optimal thermal environment and averagelatitude of the distribution of bird species present at local communities. We used multiple regression models to relate the variation in climate change indicators to: i) environmental temperature; and ii) three landscape gradients reflecting important current land use change processes (land abandonment, fire impacts and urbanization), all of them having forest areas at their positive extremes. We found that, with few exceptions, landscape gradients determined the figures of climate change indicators as strongly as temperature. Bird communities in forest habitats had colder-dwelling bird species with more northerndistributions than farmland, burnt or urban areas. Our results show that land use changes can reverse, hide or exacerbate our perception of climate change impacts when measured through community-level climate change indicators. We stress the need of an explicit incorporation of the interactions between climate change and land use dynamics to understand what are current climate change indicators indicating and be able to isolate real climate change impacts

Barn Owl (Tyto alba) breeding biology in relation to breeding season climate

Winter weather has a strong influence on Barn Owl (Tyto alba) breeding biology. Here, we analyzed the impacts of weather conditions on reproductive performance during the breeding season using data collected over 22 years in a Swiss Barn Owl population. Variations in rain and temperature during the breeding season played an important role in within-year variation in Barn Owl reproduction. An increase in rainfall during the period from 4 to 2 weeks preceding egg laying had a positive effect on clutch size. In contrast, fledgling body mass was negatively influenced by rainfall during the 24 h preceding the measurements. Finally, ambient temperature during the rearing period was positively associated with brood size at fledging. In conclusion, weather conditions during the breeding season place constraints on Barn Owl reproduction.

Effects of leaf compounds, climate and natural enemies on the incidence of thrips in cassava

The objective of this study was to determine the effects of rainfall, temperature, sunlight and relative humidity, as well as predators and parasitoids, leaf chemical composition and levels of leaf nitrogen and potassium on the intensity of Scirtothrips manihoti (Thysanoptera: Thripidae) attack on cassava Manihot esculenta Crantz var. Cacau. The leaf compounds (E)-farnesene/trans-farnesol and D-friedoolean-14-en-3-one correlated significantly with the population of S. manihoti. Insect population decreased in the dry and cold season probably due to leaf senescence. Significative correlation was observed between Syrphidae with S. manihoti populations.

Short- and long-term changes in chromosomal inversion polymorphism and global warming: Drosophila subobscura from the Balkans

The chromosomal inversion polymorphism of Drosophila subobscura is adaptive to environmental changes. The population of Petnica, Serbia, was chosen to analyze short- and long-term changes in this polymorphism. Short-term changes were studied in the samples collected in May, June, and August of 1995. The inversion polymorphism varied over these months, although various interpretations are possible. To analyze long-term changes, samples obtained in May 1995 and May 2010 were compared. The frequency of the 'cold' adapted inversions (Ast, Jst, Ust, Est, and Ost) decreased and that of the 'warm' adapted inversions (A2, J1, U1+2, and O3+4) increased, from 1995 to 2010. These changes are consistent with the general increase in temperature recorded in Petnica for the same period. Finally, the possible response of chromosomal polymorphism to global warming was analyzed at the regional level (Balkan peninsula). This polymorphism depends on the ecological conditions of the populations, and the changes observed appear to be consistent with global warming expectations. Natural selection seems to be the main mechanism responsible for the evolution of this chromosomal polymorphism.

Short- and long-term changes in chromosomal inversion polymorphism and global warming: Drosophila subobscura from the Balkans

The chromosomal inversion polymorphism of Drosophila subobscura is adaptive to environmental changes. The population of Petnica, Serbia, was chosen to analyze short- and long-term changes in this polymorphism. Short-term changes were studied in the samples collected in May, June, and August of 1995. The inversion polymorphism varied over these months, although various interpretations are possible. To analyze long-term changes, samples obtained in May 1995 and May 2010 were compared. The frequency of the 'cold' adapted inversions (Ast, Jst, Ust, Est, and Ost) decreased and that of the 'warm' adapted inversions (A2, J1, U1+2, and O3+4) increased, from 1995 to 2010. These changes are consistent with the general increase in temperature recorded in Petnica for the same period. Finally, the possible response of chromosomal polymorphism to global warming was analyzed at the regional level (Balkan peninsula). This polymorphism depends on the ecological conditions of the populations, and the changes observed appear to be consistent with global warming expectations. Natural selection seems to be the main mechanism responsible for the evolution of this chromosomal polymorphism.

Building the niche through time: using 13,000 years of data to predict the effects of climate change on three tree species in Europe

Aim Species distribution models (SDMs) based on current species ranges underestimate the potential distribution when projected in time and/or space. A multi-temporal model calibration approach has been suggested as an alternative, and we evaluate this using 13,000 years of data. Location Europe. Methods We used fossil-based records of presence for Picea abies, Abies alba and Fagus sylvatica and six climatic variables for the period 13,000 to 1000yr bp. To measure the contribution of each 1000-year time step to the total niche of each species (the niche measured by pooling all the data), we employed a principal components analysis (PCA) calibrated with data over the entire range of possible climates. Then we projected both the total niche and the partial niches from single time frames into the PCA space, and tested if the partial niches were more similar to the total niche than random. Using an ensemble forecasting approach, we calibrated SDMs for each time frame and for the pooled database. We projected each model to current climate and evaluated the results against current pollen data. We also projected all models into the future. Results Niche similarity between the partial and the total-SDMs was almost always statistically significant and increased through time. SDMs calibrated from single time frames gave different results when projected to current climate, providing evidence of a change in the species realized niches through time. Moreover, they predicted limited climate suitability when compared with the total-SDMs. The same results were obtained when projected to future climates. Main conclusions The realized climatic niche of species differed for current and future climates when SDMs were calibrated considering different past climates. Building the niche as an ensemble through time represents a way forward to a better understanding of a species' range and its ecology in a changing climate.

Reconstruction Of Past Climate Conditions Over Central Europe From Groundwater Data

Here we present a 30 000 years low-resolution climate record reconstructed from groundwater data. The investigated site is located in the Bohemian Cretaceous Basin, in the corridor between the Scandinavian ice sheet and the Alpine ice field. Noble gas temperatures (NGT), obtained from groundwater data, preserved multicentennial temperature variability and indicated a cooling of at least 5-7 °C during the last glacial maximum (LGM). This is further confirmed by the depleted δ18O and δ2H values at the LGM. High excess air (ΔNe) at the end of the Pleistocene is possibly related to abrupt changes in recharge dynamics due to progression and retreat of ice covers and permafrost. These results agree with the fact that during the LGM permafrost and small glaciers developed in the inner valleys of the Giant Mountains (located in the watershed of the aquifers). A temporal decrease of deuterium excess from the pre-industrial Holocene to present days is linked to an increase of the air temperatures, and probably also to an increase of water pressure at the source region of precipitation over the past few hundred years

Iowa’s Bridge and Highway Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability Assessment Pilot, HEPN-707, 2015

The Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) is responsible for approximately 4,100 bridges and structures that are a part of the state’s primary highway system, which includes the Interstate, US, and Iowa highway routes. A pilot study was conducted for six bridges in two Iowa river basins—the Cedar River Basin and the South Skunk River Basin—to develop a methodology to evaluate their vulnerability to climate change and extreme weather. The six bridges had been either closed or severely stressed by record streamflow within the past seven years. An innovative methodology was developed to generate streamflow scenarios given climate change projections. The methodology selected appropriate rainfall projection data to feed into a streamflow model that generated continuous peak annual streamflow series for 1960 through 2100, which were used as input to PeakFQ to estimate return intervals for floods. The methodology evaluated the plausibility of rainfall projections and credibility of streamflow simulation while remaining consistent with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) protocol for estimating the return interval for floods. The results were conveyed in an innovative graph that combined historical and scenario-based design metrics for use in bridge vulnerability analysis and engineering design. The pilot results determined the annual peak streamflow response to climate change likely will be basin-size dependent, four of the six pilot study bridges would be exposed to increased frequency of extreme streamflow and would have higher frequency of overtopping, the proposed design for replacing the Interstate 35 bridges over the South Skunk River south of Ames, Iowa is resilient to climate change, and some Iowa DOT bridge design policies could be reviewed to consider incorporating climate change information.

Viticulture under climate change : understanding vulnerability and adaptive capacity of wineries and growers. A case study in El Penedès region, Catalonia

Climate change may pose challenges and opportunities to viticulture, and much research has focused in studying the likely impacts on grapes and wine production in different regions worldwide. This study assesses the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of the viticulture sector under changing climate conditions, based on a case study in El Penedès region, Catalonia. Farm assets, livelihood strategies, farmer-market interactions and climate changes perceptions are analysed through semi-structured interviews with different types of wineries and growers. Both types of actors are equally exposed to biophysical stressors but unevenly affected by socioeconomic changes. While wineries are vulnerable because of the current economic crisis and the lack of diversification of their work, which may affect their income or production, growers are mainly affected by the low prices of their products and the lack of fix contracts. These socioeconomic stressors strongly condition their capacity to adapt to climate change, meaning that growers prioritize their immediate income problems, rather than future socioeconomic or climate threats. Therefore, growers undertake reactive adaptation to climate changing conditions, mainly based on ancient knowledge, whilst wineries combine both reactive and anticipatory adaptation practices. These circumstances should be addressed in order to allow better anticipatory adaptation to be implemented, thus avoiding future climate threats.

Assessing farmers' vulnerability to climate change : a case study in Karnataka, India

In the context of observed climate change impacts and their effect on agriculture and crop production, this study intends to assess the vulnerability of rural livelihoods through a study case in Karnataka, India. The social approach of climate change vulnerability in this study case includes defining and exploring factors that determine farmers’ vulnerability in four villages. Key informant interviews, farmer workshops and structured household interviews were used for data collection. To analyse the data, we adapted and applied three vulnerability indices: Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI), LVI-IPCC and the Livelihood Effect Index (LEI), and used descriptive statistical methods. The data was analysed at two scales: whole sample-level and household level. The results from applying the indices for the whole-sample level show that this community's vulnerability to climate change is moderate, whereas the household-level results show that most of the households' vulnerability is high-very high, while 15 key drivers of vulnerability were identified. Results and limitations of the study are discussed under the rural livelihoods framework, in which the indices are based, allowing a better understanding of the social behaviouraltrends, as well as an holistic and integrated view of the climate change, agriculture, and livelihoods processes shaping vulnerability. We conclude that these indices, although a straightforward method to assess vulnerability, have limitations that could account for inaccuracies and inability to be standardised for benchmarking, therefore we stress the need for further research.

Survival and early seedling growth of conifers with different shade tolerance in a Sitka spruce spacing trial and relationship to understorey light climate

Abstract