Análise de investimentos envolvendo risco: estudo de caso: determinação do preço de imóvel em lançamento imobiliário

Dada a motivação inicial da análise de investimentos envolvendo risco e seus possíveis desdobramentos, apresenta-se o desenvolvimento da tese ao longo de 4 capítulos. No primeiro capitulo, caracterizam-se as oportunidades (opções) de investimento apresentando uma retrospectiva de artigos fundamentais, a partir do de Black-Scholes (1973), que utiliza arbitragens para determinação do preço de opções. Em seguida, é adicionado a idéia de avaliação de projetos de investimentos em ativos reais, oriunda de artigos mais recentes, empregando o conceito de opção. No capitulo seguinte, as oportunidades sequenciais de troca de um ativo por outro ativo, representado por um fluxo de caixa, são avaliadas, a partir de um modelo com certo número de hipóteses, Carr (1988), obtendo-se algumas propriedades gerais. Incluem-se hipóteses sobre a distribuição dos preços dos ativos envolvidos nas opções de opções (opções sequenciais). No terceiro capitulo, expande-se o modelo para avaliação de uma sequência de gastos de investimentos, necessários ao desenvolvimento do projeto/montagem/operação de um ativo. No capítulo final, avalia-se o sinal teórico na compra de um imóvel em construção, comparando com o sinal realizado em lançamento imobiliário.

Curso supletivo de primeiro grau : um estudo de caso sobre a evasão escolar no municipio de Porto Alegre, RS, 1981

Esta pesquisa teve por objetivo caracterizar o aluno matriculado no nível 4 do Curso Supletivo, em 1981, na Escola Estadual de 1o Grau Araújo Porto Alegre, do município de Porto Alegre, RS, bem como levantar possíveis fatores que estejam relacionados com a sua evasão escolar e perspectivas de estudo. A amostra constituiu-se de 88 alunos, que foram caracterizados quanto ao sexo, idade, estado civil, situação profissional, renda mensal, número, motivos e período de interrupções de escolaridade anterior, idade de ingresso no mercado de trabalho, dificuldades para freqüentar o Curso Supletivo e perspectivas de continuidade dos estudos. O instrumento de coleta de dados foi um questionário, aplicado pela própria pesquisadora. Para análise dessas variáveis, utilizou-se o tratamento estatístico descritivo, com cálculo de médias, variância e desvio-padrão. A associação entre algumas variáveis foi estudada pela aplicação do teste do qui-quadrado (X2), a nível de significância de 0,05, e pelo coeficiente de correlação de Pearson. Os resultados permitiram concluir que o nível 4 do Curso Supletivo funciona como uma nova oportunidade de estudo oferecida a alunos jovens, na faixa etária de "15 a 19 anos", solteiros, que abandonaram a escola por razoes socio- econômicas, alguns exercendo atividades de trabalho desde os 10 anos. Ao freqüentá-lo, os alunos, de modo geral, nao esperam que o certificado de 1o grau venha conseguir-lhes emprego ou promoção no emprego atual. As perspectivas de continuidade dos estudos prende-se, de imediato,ao ingresso em diversas modalidades do ensino de 2o grau e, posteriormente,a um Curso Universitário. Verificou-se, ainda, que o abandono do sistema formal é um antecedente que depois se repete na trajetória escolar dos alunos no Curso Supletivo. A incidência mínima de evasão no nível 4, do Curso Supletivo, da escola em estudo, é um fato que constatamos também nas outras escolas das quatro áreas educacionais.

Influence of a Brazilian sewage outfall on the toxicity and contamination of adjacent sediments

The submarine sewage outfall of Santos (SSOS) is situated in the Santos Bay (São Paulo, Brazil) and is potentially a significant source of contaminants to the adjacent marine ecosystem. The present study aimed to assess the influence of SSOS on the sediment toxicity and contamination at Santos Bay. At the disposal site, sediments tended to be finer, organically richer and exhibited higher levels of surfactants and metals, sometimes exceeding the Threshold Effect Level values. The SSOS influence was more evident toward the East, where the sediments exhibited higher levels of TOC, total S and metals during the summer 2000 sampling campaign. Sediment toxicity to amphipods was consistently detected in four of the five stations studied. Amphipod survival tended to correlate negatively to Hg, total N and % mud. This work provides evidence that the SSOS discharge affects the quality of sediments from Santos Bay, and that control procedures are warranted. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estudo de pré-formulação para dose fixa combinada dos tuberculostáticos rifampicina, isoniazida, pirazinamida e etambutol (4 em 1)

According to the global framework regarding new cases of tuberculosis, Brazil appears at the 18th place. Thus, the Ministry of Health has defined this disease as a priority in the governmental policies. As a consequence, studies concerning treatment and prevention have increased. Fixed-dose combination formulations (FDC) are recognized as beneficial and are recommended by WHO, but they present instability and loss on rifampicin bioavailability. The main purpose of this work was to carry out a pre-formulation study with the schedule 1 tuberculosis treatment drugs: rifampicin, isoniazid, pyrazinamide and ethambutol and pharmaceutical excipients (lactose, cellulose, magnesium stearate and talc), in order to develop an FDC product (150 mg of rifampicin + 75 mg of isoniazid + 400 mg of pyrazinamide + 250 mg of ethambutol). The studies consisted of the determination of particle size and distribution (Ferret s diameter) and shape through optical microscopy, as well as rheological and technological properties (bulk and tapped densities, Hausner Factor, Carr s Index, repose angle and flux rate) and interactions among drugs and drug excipient through thermal analysis (DSC, DTA, TG and your derivate). The results showed that, except isoniazid, the other drugs presented poor rheological properties, determined by the physical characteristics of the particles: small size and rod like particles shape for rifampicin; rectangular shape for pyrazinamide and ethambutol, beyond its low density. The 4 drug mixture also not presented flowability, particularly that one containing drug quantity indicated for the formulation of FDC products. In this mixture, isoniazid, that has the best flowability, was added in a lower concentration. The addition of microcrystalline cellulose, magnesium stearate and talc to the drug mixtures improved flowability properties. In DSC analysis probable interactions among drugs were found, supporting the hypothesis of ethambutol and pyrazinamide catalysis of the rifampicin-isoniazid reaction resulting in 3- formylrifamycin isonicotinyl hydrazone (HYD) as a degradation product. In the mixtures containing lactose Supertab® DSC curves evidenced incompatibility among drugs and excipient. In the DSC curves of mixtures containing cellulose MC101®, magnesium stearate and talc, no alterations were observed comparing to the drug profiles. The TG/DTG of the binary and ternary mixtures curves showed different thermogravimetrics profiles relating that observed to the drug isolated, with the thermal decomposition early supporting the evidences of incompatibilities showed in the DSC and DTA curves

Emprego de redes neurais artificiais supervisionadas e não supervisionadas no estudo de parâmetros reológicos de excipientes farmacêuticos sólidos

In this paper artificial neural network (ANN) based on supervised and unsupervised algorithms were investigated for use in the study of rheological parameters of solid pharmaceutical excipients, in order to develop computational tools for manufacturing solid dosage forms. Among four supervised neural networks investigated, the best learning performance was achieved by a feedfoward multilayer perceptron whose architectures was composed by eight neurons in the input layer, sixteen neurons in the hidden layer and one neuron in the output layer. Learning and predictive performance relative to repose angle was poor while to Carr index and Hausner ratio (CI and HR, respectively) showed very good fitting capacity and learning, therefore HR and CI were considered suitable descriptors for the next stage of development of supervised ANNs. Clustering capacity was evaluated for five unsupervised strategies. Network based on purely unsupervised competitive strategies, classic "Winner-Take-All", "Frequency-Sensitive Competitive Learning" and "Rival-Penalize Competitive Learning" (WTA, FSCL and RPCL, respectively) were able to perform clustering from database, however this classification was very poor, showing severe classification errors by grouping data with conflicting properties into the same cluster or even the same neuron. On the other hand it could not be established what was the criteria adopted by the neural network for those clustering. Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) and Neural Gas (NG) networks showed better clustering capacity. Both have recognized the two major groupings of data corresponding to lactose (LAC) and cellulose (CEL). However, SOM showed some errors in classify data from minority excipients, magnesium stearate (EMG) , talc (TLC) and attapulgite (ATP). NG network in turn performed a very consistent classification of data and solve the misclassification of SOM, being the most appropriate network for classifying data of the study. The use of NG network in pharmaceutical technology was still unpublished. NG therefore has great potential for use in the development of software for use in automated classification systems of pharmaceutical powders and as a new tool for mining and clustering data in drug development

A comparison of global estimates of marine primary production from ocean color

The third primary production algorithm round robin (PPARR3) compares output from 24 models that estimate depth-integrated primary production from satellite measurements of ocean color, as well as seven general circulation models (GCMs) coupled with ecosystem or biogeochemical models. Here we compare the global primary production fields corresponding to eight months of 1998 and 1999 as estimated from common input fields of photosynthetically-available radiation (PAR), sea-surface temperature (SST), mixed-layer depth, and chlorophyll concentration. We also quantify the sensitivity of the ocean-color-based models to perturbations in their input variables. The pair-wise correlation between ocean-color models was used to cluster them into groups or related output, which reflect the regions and environmental conditions under which they respond differently. The groups do not follow model complexity with regards to wavelength or depth dependence, though they are related to the manner in which temperature is used to parameterize photosynthesis. Global average PP varies by a factor of two between models. The models diverged the most for the Southern Ocean, SST under 10 degrees C, and chlorophyll concentration exceeding 1 mg Chlm(-3). Based on the conditions under which the model results diverge most, we conclude that current ocean-color-based models are challenged by high-nutrient low-chlorophyll conditions, and extreme temperatures or chlorophyll concentrations. The GCM-based models predict comparable primary production to those based on ocean color: they estimate higher values in the Southern Ocean, at low SST, and in the equatorial band, while they estimate lower values in eutrophic regions (probably because the area of high chlorophyll concentrations is smaller in the GCMs). Further progress in primary production modeling requires improved understanding of the effect of temperature on photosynthesis and better parameterization of the maximum photosynthetic rate. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prospective Evaluation of Laparoscopic Pancreatic Biopsies in 11 Healthy Cats

BackgroundDefinitive diagnosis of feline pancreatic disease is dependent on histologic examination of biopsies.HypothesisLaparoscopic punch biopsy of the pancreas does not significantly affect pancreatic health or clinical status of healthy cats, and provides an adequate biopsy sample for histopathology.AnimalsEleven healthy female domestic shorthair cats.MethodsEffects of laparoscopic pancreatic visualization alone in 5 cats compared with laparoscopic pancreatic visualization and punch biopsy in 6 cats were studied. Temperature, pulse, and respiratory rate, physical examination, and daily caloric intake were evaluated for 1 week before and 1 week after the procedure. Pain scores (simple descriptive score and dynamic interactive visual assessment score) were evaluated hourly during the 1st 6 hours postprocedure. Complete blood cell counts, serum biochemical profiles, serum feline pancreatic lipase immunoreactivity, and urine specific gravity were evaluated before the procedure and at 6, 24, and 72 hours postprocedure. One month postprocedure, during sterilization, the pancreas was reassessed visually in all cats, and microscopically in the biopsy group.ResultsFor all variables evaluated, there were no significant differences between biopsy and control cats. Re-evaluation of the pancreatic biopsy site 1 month later documented a normal tissue response to biopsy. The laparoscopic punch biopsy forceps provided high-quality pancreatic biopsy samples with an average size of 5 mm x 4 mm on 2-dimensional cut section.Conclusions and Clinical ImportanceLaparoscopic pancreatic biopsy is a useful and safe technique in healthy cats.

Assessing the uncertainties of model estimates of primary productivity in the tropical Pacific Ocean

Depth-integrated primary productivity (PP) estimates obtained from satellite ocean color-based models (SatPPMs) and those generated from biogeochemical ocean general circulation models (BCGCMs) represent a key resource for biogeochemical and ecological studies at global as well as regional scales. Calibration and validation of these PP models are not straightforward, however, and comparative studies show large differences between model estimates. The goal of this paper is to compare PP estimates obtained from 30 different models (21 SatPPMs and 9 BOGCMs) to a tropical Pacific PP database consisting of similar to 1000 C-14 measurements spanning more than a decade (1983-1996). Primary findings include: skill varied significantly between models, but performance was not a function of model complexity or type (i.e. SatPPM vs. BOGCM); nearly all models underestimated the observed variance of PR specifically yielding too few low PP (< 0.2 g Cm-2 d(-1)) values; more than half of the total root-mean-squared model-data differences associated with the satellite-based PP models might be accounted for by uncertainties in the input variables and/or the PP data; and the tropical Pacific database captures a broad scale shift from low biomassnormalized productivity in the 1980s to higher biomass-normalized productivity in the 1990s, which was not successfully captured by any of the models. This latter result suggests that interdecadal and global changes will be a significant challenge for both SatPPMs and BOGCMs. Finally, average root-mean-squared differences between in situ PP data on the equator at 140 degrees W and PP estimates from the satellite-based productivity models were 58% lower than analogous values computed in a previous PP model comparison 6 years ago. The success of these types of comparison exercises is illustrated by the continual modification and improvement of the participating models and the resulting increase in model skill. (C) 2008 Elsevier BY. All rights reserved.

Challenges of modeling depth-integrated marine primary productivity over multiple decades: A case study at BATS and HOT

The performance of 36 models (22 ocean color models and 14 biogeochemical ocean circulation models (BOGCMs)) that estimate depth-integrated marine net primary productivity (NPP) was assessed by comparing their output to in situ (14)C data at the Bermuda Atlantic Time series Study (BATS) and the Hawaii Ocean Time series (HOT) over nearly two decades. Specifically, skill was assessed based on the models' ability to estimate the observed mean, variability, and trends of NPP. At both sites, more than 90% of the models underestimated mean NPP, with the average bias of the BOGCMs being nearly twice that of the ocean color models. However, the difference in overall skill between the best BOGCM and the best ocean color model at each site was not significant. Between 1989 and 2007, in situ NPP at BATS and HOT increased by an average of nearly 2% per year and was positively correlated to the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation index. The majority of ocean color models produced in situ NPP trends that were closer to the observed trends when chlorophyll-alpha was derived from high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC), rather than fluorometric or SeaWiFS data. However, this was a function of time such that average trend magnitude was more accurately estimated over longer time periods. Among BOGCMs, only two individual models successfully produced an increasing NPP trend (one model at each site). We caution against the use of models to assess multiannual changes in NPP over short time periods. Ocean color model estimates of NPP trends could improve if more high quality HPLC chlorophyll-alpha time series were available.

Clinical and molecular phenotype of Aicardi-Goutières syndrome

Aicardi-Goutières syndrome (AGS) is a genetic encephalopathy whose clinical features mimic those of acquired in utero viral infection. AGS exhibits locus heterogeneity, with mutations identified in genes encoding the 3′→5′ exonuclease TREX1 and the three subunits of the RNASEH2 endonuclease complex. To define the molecular spectrum of AGS, we performed mutation screening in patients, from 127 pedigrees, with a clinical diagnosis of the disease. Biallelic mutations in TREX1, RNASEH2A, RNASEH2B, and RNASEH2C were observed in 31, 3, 47, and 18 families, respectively. In five families, we identified an RNASEH2A or RNASEH2B mutation on one allele only. In one child, the disease occurred because of a de novo heterozygous TREX1 mutation. In 22 families, no mutations were found. Null mutations were common in TREX1, although a specific missense mutation was observed frequently in patients from northern Europe. Almost all mutations in RNASEH2A, RNASEH2B, and RNASEH2C were missense. We identified an RNASEH2C founder mutation in 13 Pakistani families. We also collected clinical data from 123 mutation-positive patients. Two clinical presentations could be delineated: an early-onset neonatal form, highly reminiscent of congenital infection seen particularly with TREX1 mutations, and a later-onset presentation, sometimes occurring after several months of normal development and occasionally associated with remarkably preserved neurological function, most frequently due to RNASEH2B mutations. Mortality was correlated with genotype; 34.3% of patients with TREX1, RNASEH2A, and RNASEH2C mutations versus 8.0% RNASEH2B mutation-positive patients were known to have died (P = .001). Our analysis defines the phenotypic spectrum of AGS and suggests a coherent mutation-screening strategy in this heterogeneous disorder. Additionally, our data indicate that at least one further AGS-causing gene remains to be identified. © 2007 by The American Society of Human Genetics. All rights reserved.

Sistemas electorales y representación femenina en América Latina

Incluye Bibliografía

Estudos de pré-formulação de cápsulas gelatinosas duras contendo formulação de extrato de Gymnema sylvestre em pó

Gymnema sylvestre extract (GSE) is a plant product widely used as an adjuvant in the treatment of diabetes mellitus and commercially available as a powder. Owing to its low flowability, the manufacturing of hard gelatin capsules containing GSE faces specific problems. The purpose of this study was to investigate the best excipient (starch, lactose or microcrystalline cellulose) for hard gelatin capsules containing GSE. The technological properties such us bulk density (ρβ); tapped density (ρt); inter-particle porosity (Ie); Carr index (CI); Hausner ratio (HR); loss on drying (%LOD) and particle size distribution (%Pf) of the various GSE mixtures were investigated with the aim of identifying the best excipient. The need for lubricants (talc/magnesium stearate) was also assessed. GSE was characterized as a fine powder with more than 50% of its particles between 0.149mm to 0.250mm; furthermore, CI=25.6%; RH=1.3 and Ie = 25.6% and, as expected with such properties, it showed poor flowability. All the excipients investigated were able to change the technological properties of GSE and the powder mixture containing microcrystalline cellulose gave the best results.

Modelagem estocástica de opções de câmbio no Brasil: aplicação de transformada rápida de Fourier e expansão assintótica ao modelo de Heston

Pós-graduação em Física - IFT