Essays on the relationship between the equity and the forward premium puzzles

Our research agenda consists in showing this strong relation between these puzzles based on evidences that both empirical failures are related to the incapacity of the canonical CCAPM to provide a high volatile intertemporal marginal rate of substitution with reasonable values for the preferences parameters.

The missing link: using the NBER recession indicator to construct coincident and leading indices economic activity

We use the information content in the decisions of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee to construct coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the United States. We identify the coincident index by assuming that the coincident variables have a common cycle with the unobserved state of the economy, and that the NBER business cycle dates signify the turning points in the unobserved state. This model allows us to estimate our coincident index as a linear combination of the coincident series. We establish that our index performs better than other currently popular coincident indices of economic activity.

The missing link: using the NBER recession indicator to construct coincident and leading indices economic activity

We use the information content in the decisions of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee to construct coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the United States. We identify the coincident index by assuming that the coincident variables have a common cycle with the unobserved state of the economy, and that the NBER business cycle dates signify the turning points in the unobserved state. This model allows us to estimate our coincident index as a linear combination of the coincident series. We establish that our index performs better than other currently popular coincident indices of economic activity.

The missing link: using the NBER recession indicator to construct coincident and leading indices economic activity

We use the information content in the decisions of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee to construct coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the United States. We identify the coincident index by assuming that the coincident variables have a common cycle with the unobserved state of the economy, and that the NBER business cycle dates signify the turning points in the unobserved state. This model allows us to estimate our coincident index as a linear combination of the coincident series. We compare the performance of our index with other currently popular coincident indices of economic activity.

Sequential cost-reimbursement rules

This paper studies cost-sharing rules under dynamic adverse selection. We present a typical principal-agent model with two periods, set up in Laffont and Tirole's (1986) canonical regulation environment. At first, when the contract is signed, the firm has prior uncertainty about its efficiency parameter. In the second period, the firm learns its efficiency and chooses the level of cost-reducing effort. The optimal mechanism sequentially screens the firm's types and achieves a higher level of welfare than its static counterpart. The contract is indirectly implemented by a sequence of transfers, consisting of a fixed advance payment based on the reported cost estimate, and an ex-post compensation linear in cost performance.

Testing consumption optimality using aggregate data

The objective of this paper is to test for optimality of consumption decisions at the aggregate level (representative consumer) taking into account popular deviations from the canonical CRRA utility model rule of thumb and habit. First, we show that rule-of-thumb behavior in consumption is observational equivalent to behavior obtained by the optimizing model of King, Plosser and Rebelo (Journal of Monetary Economics, 1988), casting doubt on how reliable standard rule-of-thumb tests are. Second, although Carroll (2001) and Weber (2002) have criticized the linearization and testing of euler equations for consumption, we provide a deeper critique directly applicable to current rule-of-thumb tests. Third, we show that there is no reason why return aggregation cannot be performed in the nonlinear setting of the Asset-Pricing Equation, since the latter is a linear function of individual returns. Fourth, aggregation of the nonlinear euler equation forms the basis of a novel test of deviations from the canonical CRRA model of consumption in the presence of rule-of-thumb and habit behavior. We estimated 48 euler equations using GMM, with encouraging results vis-a-vis the optimality of consumption decisions. At the 5% level, we only rejected optimality twice out of 48 times. Empirical-test results show that we can still rely on the canonical CRRA model so prevalent in macroeconomics: out of 24 regressions, we found the rule-of-thumb parameter to be statistically signi cant at the 5% level only twice, and the habit ƴ parameter to be statistically signi cant on four occasions. The main message of this paper is that proper return aggregation is critical to study intertemporal substitution in a representative-agent framework. In this case, we fi nd little evidence of lack of optimality in consumption decisions, and deviations of the CRRA utility model along the lines of rule-of-thumb behavior and habit in preferences represent the exception, not the rule.

Testing consumption optimality using aggregate data

This paper tests the optimality of consumption decisions at the aggregate level taking into account popular deviations from the canonical constant-relative-risk-aversion (CRRA) utility function model-rule of thumb and habit. First, based on the critique in Carroll (2001) and Weber (2002) of the linearization and testing strategies using euler equations for consumption, we provide extensive empirical evidence of their inappropriateness - a drawback for standard rule- of-thumb tests. Second, we propose a novel approach to test for consumption optimality in this context: nonlinear estimation coupled with return aggregation, where rule-of-thumb behavior and habit are special cases of an all encompassing model. We estimated 48 euler equations using GMM. At the 5% level, we only rejected optimality twice out of 48 times. Moreover, out of 24 regressions, we found the rule-of-thumb parameter to be statistically significant only twice. Hence, lack of optimality in consumption decisions represent the exception, not the rule. Finally, we found the habit parameter to be statistically significant on four occasions out of 24.

Susceptibility of mosquito vectors to Dirofilaria immitis on Madeira Island, Portugal

Dirofilaria immitis (Leidy, 1856), an agent of heartworm disease, is an important parasite from both the veterinary standpoint and as a model to study human filariasis. It is a mosquito-borne filarial nematode which inhabits the right ventricle and pulmonary arteries of dogs. D. immitis is an important disease agent on Madeira Island with about 30% of dogs testing positive for this worm. Nevertheless, the vectors of this parasite in Madeira have never been studied, nor has the interaction between pathogen and vector, or the environmental variables that might influence heartworm transmission. Innate susceptibility to infection is only one component of vector competence, and field isolation of naturally infected mosquitoes has shown the capability of D. immitis to exploit a great diversity of vector species under natural conditions. The purpose of this work was to determine which mosquitoes are vectors of heartworm disease, the relation between population density and environment, and the association between immune response of the vector to the filarial parasite. Seasonal abundance of Culex theileri and Culex pipiens molestus was studied. Correlation and canonical correspondence analysis were performed using abundance data of these two species with selected weather variables, including mean temperature, relative humidity and accumulated precipitation. The most important factor determining Cx. theileri abundance was accumulated precipitation, while Cx. pipiens molestus abundance did not have any relationship with weather variables. Field studies were performed to verify whether Cx. theileri Theobald functions as a natural vector of D. immitis on Madeira Island, Portugal. Cx. theileri tested positive for D. immitis for the first time. The same study was made regarding Cx. p. molestus. Two abnormal L2 stage filarial worms were found in Malpighian tubules in field caught Cx. p. molestus. In the laboratory, two strains of Cx. p. molestus were studied for their susceptibility to D. immitis. None presented infective-stage larvae. Finally, because Cx. p. molestus is an autogenous mosquito, we evaluated the reproductive costs when this mosquito mounts an immune response against D. immitis in the absence of a blood meal. This mosquito showed an active immune response when inoculated intrathoracically with microfilariae (mf) of the heartworm. The ovaries from mosquitoes undergoing melanotic encapsulation developed more eggs than those which could not melanize the mf. This fact is contradictory with some previous studies of reproductive costs in Armigeres subalbatus and Ochlerotatus trivittatus, and it was the first time that an autogenous mosquito was used to study this subject.

Estudo sobre a mortalidade e sobrevivência de micro e pequenas empresas natalenses e seus impactos nas políticas públicas pró-empreendedorismo

The principal purpose of this research was to investigate discriminant factors of survival and failure of micro and small businesses, and the impacts of these factors in the public politics for entrepreneurship in the State of Rio Grande do Norte. The data were ceded by SEBRAE/RN and the Commercial Committee of the Rio Grande do Norte State and it included the businesses that were registered in 2000, 2001 and 2002. According to the theoretical framework 3 groups of factors were defined Business Financial Structure, Entrepreneurial Preparation and Entrepreneurial Behavior , and the factors were studied in order to determine whether they are discriminant or not of the survival and business failure. A quantitative research was applied and advanced statistical techniques were used multivariate data analysis , beginning with the factorial analysis and after using the discriminant analysis. As a result, canonical discriminant functions were found and they partially explained the survival and business failure in terms of the factors and groups of factors. The analysis also permitted the evaluation of the public politics for entrepreneurship and it was verified, according to the view of the entrepreneurs, that these politics were weakly effective to avoid business failure. Some changes in the referred politics were suggested based on the most significant factors found.

Casas modernas na orla marítima de João Pessoa 1960 a 1974

This paper studies modern houses built in the neighborhoods of Cabo Branco, Tambaú and Manaíra by the seafront in Joao Pessoa, built between 1960 and 1974. We start from the already widespread notion that Brazilian Modern Architecture was inspired by foreign ways, mainly European but also American here recast, adapted, often innovating repertoire and ideas received (Y. BRUAND, 2005; H. SEGAWA, 2002; C. E. COMAS, 2002; C. E. COMAS, 2002; M. M. ACAYABA e S. FICHER, 1982; M. B. C. ARANHA, 2008; F. C. L. LARA, 2001; R. V. ZEIN, 2005; L. E. AMORIM, 1999, C. V. STINCO, 2010). With this look, after a field study, we collected 61 specimens in the collection of the Central Archive of João Pessoa City Hall, in order to identify which reformulations, adaptations or innovations would exist in modern houses built along the coast in João Pessoa. As we try to analyze the houses by what the bibliography had suggested (G. C. ARGAN, 1992; L. CORBUSIER, 2002; C.E.D. e M. ADRIÀ, 2007; K. FRAMPTON, 1997; H. H. HITCHCOCK, 1976; L. BENEVOLO, 2004; R. DE FUSCO, 1992, N . PEVSNER, 2002; M. RAGON, 1986; B. RISEBERO, 1982; E. ROBBINS, 1997; W. J. R. CURTIS, 1982; V. SCULLY, 2003; B. ZEVI, 1984; D. DUNST, 1999; A. COLQUHOUN, 2002; R. WESTON, 2005; A. IÑAKI, 2006; J. PETER, 1994) the starting idea seemed to us not sufficiently developed. So we decided, first, to undertake a literature review comparing speech and image of modern houses most often cited by international and national literature, following a script freely inspired the Vitruvian triad: the functional and spatial (sectorization, guidance, spatiality, movement); constructive aspects (structural elements, modulation, deck, sealing), and aesthetic aspects (composition, apertures, ornaments) (Cap.1), then cast a look under this same route in 61 specimens obtained initially, trying to verify any specificities they would have (Cap.2). Failing to deepen the analysis of all these examples, we chose 10 projects which were redesigned and described in more detail to which we supplement with the aspects of place - location / lot location, access, axiality. (E. C. MAHFUZ, 2002; J. C. MIGUEL, 2000; E. C. CHEREGATI, 2007; M. COTRIM, 2007). (Cap. 3). The documentation and description resulting allowed us to approach some related questions about the canonical transcripts hybridizing, adoptions and any vernacular innovations of modern houses along the coast, We conclude that the appellants and anachronistic elements isolates found in each of the studied bind to the Brazilian Modern Architecture

Comunidades zooplanctônicas como bioindicadoras da qualidade da água de quatro reservatórios da região semi-árida do Rio Grande do Norte

The response of zooplankton assemblages to variations in the water quality of four man-made lakes, caused by eutrophication and siltation, was investigated by means of canonical correspondence analysis. Monte Carlo simulations using the CCA eingenvalues as test statistics revealed that changes in zooplankton species composition along the environmental gradients of trophic state and abiogenic turbidity were highly significant. The species Brachionus calyciflorus, Thermocyclops sp. and Argyrodiaptomus sp. were good indicators of eutrophic conditions while the species Brachionus dolabratus, Keratella tropica and Hexarthra sp. were good indicators of high turbidity due to suspended sediments. The rotifer genus Brachionus was the most species-rich taxon, comprising five species which were associated with different environmental conditions. Therefore, we tested whether this genus alone could potentially be a better biological indicator of these environmental gradients than the entire zooplankton assemblages or any other random set of five species. The ordination results show that the five Brachionus species alone did not explain better the observed pattern of environmental variation than most random sets of five species. Therefore, this genus could not be selected as a target taxon for more intensive environmental monitoring as has been previously suggested by Attayde and Bozelli (1998). Overall, our results show that changes in the water quality of man-made lakes in a tropical semi-arid region have significant effects on the structure of zooplankton assemblages that can potentially affect the functioning of these ecosystems

A diversidade de lagartos na Caatinga é mediada pelos térmitas?

Intending to explain the extraordinary lizard coexistence levels found in Australian deserts, Morton & James (1988) figured out a hypothesis which defends that the termite diversity would bring about lizard radiation. This study aims to verify the validation of that hypothesis in Caatinga lizard assemblages. This study also objectives verifying if the termite defense mechanisms influence their consuming levels by lizards and if this pattern differs between different lizard lineages. Termites were collected using a standardized sampling protocol of termites. Besides using haphazard sampling, we collect lizards with 108 pitfall traps in each area. Intending to check the linkage between the termite and lizard assemblages, the lizard stomach contents were analyzed and then a canonical correspondence analysis was performed. The presence of nonrandom patterns of diet overlap among the lizard species was also examined. Aiming to check if the defense mechanisms of termite influence their consuming pattern by lizards it was performed a laboratory experiment where termite with different defense mechanisms were offered to lizards of two different lineages. We verified that lizard assemblages do not consume termites according to termite abundance in ecosystems. Furthermore, mean niche overlap lizard species did not differ significantly from that expected by chance. We found that termite chemical defense mechanism does influence the termite s pattern consuming by lizards. These results do not corroborate premises which support Morton & James hypothesis (1988) and point out that lizard do not chose termites based on their abundance, but, trying to avoid consuming termites which exhibit chemical defense mechanisms. This defense mechanism, however, may not be the only explanation to patterns of termite s consuming by lizards.

Divergência genética de cultivares de arroz quanto à resistência a Tibraca limbativentris Stål (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae)

A divergência genética de 16 cultivares de arroz quanto à resistência ao percevejo-do-colmo-do-arroz, Tibraca limbativentris Stål, foi avaliada por meio de técnicas de análise multivariada. O experimento foi conduzido em casa de vegetação, em delineamento experimental de blocos ao acaso, com oito repetições. Na avaliação foram considerados oito caracteres de resistência ao ataque do inseto. A divergência genética foi avaliada por procedimentos multivariados: distância generalizada de Mahalanobis (D²), método de agrupamento de otimização de Tocher e técnica de variáveis canônicas. As cultivares mais dissimilares foram Bico Ganga e Marabá Branco, enquanto Agulha e Branco Tardão foram as mais similares. Foram formados cinco grupos pelo método de otimização de Tocher. As três primeiras variáveis canônicas explicaram 88,5% da variabilidade total disponível. Conclui-se que as técnicas de análise multivariada são eficientes para a análise da divergência genética entre as cultivares de arroz, com destaque para Marabá Branco e Bico Ganga, consideradas as mais promissoras a serem utilizadas em futuros cruzamentos para melhoramento visando resistência ao percevejo-do-colmo-do-arroz.

Gêneros do discurso e escrita: o que as coleções didáticas de português (des)prestigiam no ensino da produção textual?

Through the examination of official indicators, it can be observed that writing is pointed out as one of the main problems concerning formal basic education. However, this teaching-learning object is one of the central objectives at school, having an essential role in different curricular components as well as in the interaction demands required by society. Such paradox indicates, therefore, the relevance of investigations which analyze the intrinsic elements of child development as written text producer. Hence, the main purpose of this research consists of analyzing the treatment given to the types of discourse and the teaching situations in which the written text are produced, concerning Portuguese language didactic material collections approved by Programa Nacional do Livro Didático (PNLD 2010) the Brazilian program of didactic book and worked at elementary school. Such materials correspond to the collections adopted in municipal education system schools from Natal, RN which were below the official education indicator IDEB 2009. Thus, the questions that guide this work are: 1. During writing production lessons, is the diversity of types of discourse effectively worked on didactic collections? 2. Which are the types of discourse and the social spheres prioritized when teaching writing production? 3. How is the situation addressed in the production of the written text should be produced? For this research, we retook the authors Bakhtin, Bunzen, Faraco, Freire, Rodrigues, Rojo, Schneuwly e Dolz and we made a list of all types of discourse and spheres contemplated in the propositions of the writing production in didactical books, concerning the eight collections which compounds the first moment of analysis. Then, we verified how the situation of production is oriented by examining two didactic collections if and how they express the elements referring to the social-historical, functional and linguistic-discursive context of the text to be produced. The data obtained indicate: lack of diversification of types of discourse in the collection that compounds the Aggregate Sample of the research; the conception of a diversity based on the didactic of visiting; the recognition of all canonical and hegemonic types of text as one of the privileged objects of study; the centralization on the standard variety of the language and the devaluation of the representative types of cultural diversity; the shortage of productions which retrace to written language related to different technologies of communication and information; and the little emphasis on the types of discourse related to public language practices. As for the situations of production, it is observed the predominance of the school as a producer of dialogic relationships, whose propositions present, for example, text addressees, enunciative positions, support and contexts of restricted circulation, especially at school. Two divergent situations are observed among the collections: the lack of a work in which the situation of production is under the perspective of the types of discourse as object of teaching-learning; the concept of the types of discourse as object of reflection, presenting a differentiated didactic orientation towards the situation of production. This research contributes, therefore, with a mapping of the existence and the treatment of the types of discourse on propositions of writing production in didactic books; with the critical analysis of the approach of written activities, considering the elements of the historical-social, functional and linguistic-discursive context; thus, through teaching, research and public policies, use and selection of didactic material for the area

Um estudo sobre o momentum angular total de estrelas com planetas

Since Michel Mayor and his student Didier Queloz s pioneer announcement, in 1995, of the existence of a planet orbiting the star 51 Peg, up to present date, 695 extrasolar planets orbiting stars of spectral type F, G, K and M have been discovered. A study on the behavior of the total angular momentum of the planetary systems known up to present date becomes relevant when we know that about 98% of the angular momentum of the solar system is associated with the planets, although they represent only 0.15 percent of the mass of the whole system. In this dissertation we study the behavior of stellar angular momentum, orbital angular momentum and total angular momentum in a sample of 282 stars harboring planets, including 40 multiple systems. We observed that planetary systems containing more than one known planet have both higher orbital angular momentum and total angular momentum compared to those who have only one planet. This analysis shows that multiplanet systems tend to have higher momenta, suggesting that the planets in such systems that contribute to the greater portion momenta have been found. Thus, planetary systems with lower values for the momenta represent the best candidates to the discovery of new planets