Integrated Project Portfolio Management as a Tool for Strategic Steering and Business Control

Tutkielman päätavoitteena oli tutkia miten projektisalkun hallinnalla voidaan tukea organisaation strategista ohjausta ja liiketoimintaa. Tämän lisäksi avaintavoitteina oli kuvata projektisalkun hallinnan nykytilanne kohdeyrityksessä, paljastaa erityisiä kehitystarpeita ja lopulta luoda kohdeyrityksen projektisalkunhallinnalle tavoitetila. Kirjallisuuskatsauksessa pohdittiin projektisalkun hallinnan roolia ja tavoitteita, projektisalkun hallinnassa käyttävää prosessia, sekä menetelmiä ja tekniikoita, joilla salkkua hallitaan. Työn empiirisessä osassa syvennyttiin tutkimaan projektinsalkun hallintaan liittyviä erityispiirteitä kohdeyrityksessä. Tutkimustulosten huolellinen analysointi osoitti, että aikaisempi kirjallisuus ei riittävästi huomioi kokonaisvaltaisen, integroidun lähestymistavan tarvetta ja viestinnän tärkeyttä projektisalkun hallinnassa. Tutkimuksen johtopäätöksinä luotiin uusi integroitu projektisalkun hallintamalli ja määriteltiin kohdeyritykselle projektisalkun hallinnan tavoitetila sekä ne kehitysaskeleet, joita yrityksen tulisi lähitulevaisuudessa ottaa.

REGSTATTOOLS: freeware statistical tools for the analysis of disease population databases used in health and social studies

Background: The repertoire of statistical methods dealing with the descriptive analysis of the burden of a disease has been expanded and implemented in statistical software packages during the last years. The purpose of this paper is to present a web-based tool, REGSTATTOOLS http://regstattools.net intended to provide analysis for the burden of cancer, or other group of disease registry data. Three software applications are included in REGSTATTOOLS: SART (analysis of disease"s rates and its time trends), RiskDiff (analysis of percent changes in the rates due to demographic factors and risk of developing or dying from a disease) and WAERS (relative survival analysis). Results: We show a real-data application through the assessment of the burden of tobacco-related cancer incidence in two Spanish regions in the period 1995-2004. Making use of SART we show that lung cancer is the most common cancer among those cancers, with rising trends in incidence among women. We compared 2000-2004 data with that of 1995-1999 to assess percent changes in the number of cases as well as relative survival using RiskDiff and WAERS, respectively. We show that the net change increase in lung cancer cases among women was mainly attributable to an increased risk of developing lung cancer, whereas in men it is attributable to the increase in population size. Among men, lung cancer relative survival was higher in 2000-2004 than in 1995-1999, whereas it was similar among women when these time periods were compared. Conclusions: Unlike other similar applications, REGSTATTOOLS does not require local software installation and it is simple to use, fast and easy to interpret. It is a set of web-based statistical tools intended for automated calculation of population indicators that any professional in health or social sciences may require.

Analysis of flow dynamics in right ventricular outflow tract.

BACKGROUND: The mechanism behind early graft failure after right ventricular outflow tract (RVOT) reconstruction is not fully understood. Our aim was to establish a three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model of RVOT to investigate the hemodynamic conditions that may trigger the development of intimal hyperplasia and arteriosclerosis. METHODS: Pressure, flow, and diameter at the RVOT, pulmonary artery (PA), bifurcation of the PA, and left and right PAs were measured in 10 normal pigs with a mean weight of 24.8 ± 0.78 kg. Data obtained from the experimental scenario were used for CFD simulation of pressure, flow, and shear stress profile from the RVOT to the left and right PAs. RESULTS: Using experimental data, a CFD model was obtained for 2.0 and 2.5-L/min pulsatile inflow profiles. In both velocity profiles, time and space averaged in the low-shear stress profile range from 0-6.0 Pa at the pulmonary trunk, its bifurcation, and at the openings of both PAs. These low-shear stress areas were accompanied to high-pressure regions 14.0-20.0 mm Hg (1866.2-2666 Pa). Flow analysis revealed a turbulent flow at the PA bifurcation and ostia of both PAs. CONCLUSIONS: Identified local low-shear stress, high pressure, and turbulent flow correspond to a well-defined trigger pattern for the development of intimal hyperplasia and arteriosclerosis. As such, this real-time three-dimensional CFD model may in the future serve as a tool for the planning of RVOT reconstruction, its analysis, and prediction of outcome.

The swiss transplant cohort study: lessons from the first 6 years.

Prospective cohort studies significantly contribute to answering specific research questions in a defined population. Since 2008, the Swiss Transplant Cohort Study (STCS) systematically enrolled >95 % of all transplant recipients in Switzerland, collecting predefined data at determined time points. Designed as an open cohort, the STCS has included >3900 patients to date, with a median follow-up of 2.96 years (IQR 1.44-4.73). This review highlights some relevant findings in the field of transplant-associated infections gained by the STCS so far. Three key general aspects have crystallized: (i) Well-run cohort studies are a powerful tool to conduct genetic studies, which are crucially dependent on a meticulously described phenotype. (ii) Long-term real-life observations are adding a distinct layer of information that cannot be obtained during randomized studies. (iii) The systemic collection of data, close interdisciplinary collaboration, and continuous analysis of some key outcome data such as infectious diseases endpoints can improve patient care.

Wavelet Analysis in Turbulence

The objective of this thesis is to study wavelets and their role in turbulence applications. Under scrutiny in the thesis is the intermittency in turbulence models. Wavelets are used as a mathematical tool to study the intermittent activities that turbulence models produce. The first section generally introduces wavelets and wavelet transforms as a mathematical tool. Moreover, the basic properties of turbulence are discussed and classical methods for modeling turbulent flows are explained. Wavelets are implemented to model the turbulence as well as to analyze turbulent signals. The model studied here is the GOY (Gledzer 1973, Ohkitani & Yamada 1989) shell model of turbulence, which is a popular model for explaining intermittency based on the cascade of kinetic energy. The goal is to introduce better quantification method for intermittency obtained in a shell model. Wavelets are localized in both space (time) and scale, therefore, they are suitable candidates for the study of singular bursts, that interrupt the calm periods of an energy flow through various scales. The study concerns two questions, namely the frequency of the occurrence as well as the intensity of the singular bursts at various Reynolds numbers. The results gave an insight that singularities become more local as Reynolds number increases. The singularities become more local also when the shell number is increased at certain Reynolds number. The study revealed that the singular bursts are more frequent at Re ~ 107 than other cases with lower Re. The intermittency of bursts for the cases with Re ~ 106 and Re ~ 105 was similar, but for the case with Re ~ 104 bursts occured after long waiting time in a different fashion so that it could not be scaled with higher Re.

Transfer pricing tool development process based on valve package production costs

Tämän diplomityön päätavoitteena oli parantaa kehitetyn kustannusperusteisen siirtohinnoittelutyökalun ominaisuuksia osastokohtaisen kustannusarviointiprosessin käyttöön. Työ on vaikeutunut lähimenneisyyden heikosta hintakyselyiden vastauskyvystä. Työn pääongelmana oli kerätä luotettavaa tuotannonohjausjärjestelmän kustannusaineistoa osittain vanhentuneista vakioventtiilien koneistus- ja materiaalitiedosta. Tutkimuksessa käytetyt tärkeimmät tutkimusmenetelmät voidaan jakaa siirtohinnoittelu- ja kustannusarvioprosessien kirjallisuustutkimukseen, kenttäanalyysiin ja nykyisen Microsoft Excel –siirtohinnoittelutyökalun kehittämiseen eri osastojen rajapinnassa. Siirtohinnoittelumenetelmät ovat yleisesti jaettu kustannus-, markkina- ja neuvotteluperusteisiin malleihin, jotka harvoin sellaisenaan kohtaavat siirtohinnoittelulle asetetut tavoitteet. Tämä ratkaisutapa voi johtaa tilanteisiin, jossa kaksi erillistä menetelmää sulautuvat yhteen. Lisäksi varsinaiseen siirtohinnoittelujärjestelmään yleensä vaikuttavat useat sisäiset ja ulkoiset tekijät. Lopullinen siirtohinnoittelumenetelmä tulisi ehdottomasti tukea myös yrityksen visiota ja muita liiketoiminnalle asetettuja strategioita. Työn tuloksena saatiin laajennettu Microsoft Excel –sovellus, joka vaatii sekä vuosittaista että kuukausittaista erikoisventtiilimateriaalien hinta- ja toimitusaikatietojen päivittämistä. Tämä ratkaisutapa ehdottomasti parantaa kustannusarviointiprosessia, koska myös alihankkijatietoja joudutaan tutkimaan systemaattisesti. Tämän jälkeen koko siirtohinnoitteluprosessia voidaan kehittää muuntamalla kokoonpano- ja testaustyövaiheiden kustannusrakennetta toimintoperustaisen kustannuslaskentamallin mukaiseksi.

Allelic diversity and population structure in Vibrio cholerae O139 Bengal based on nucleotide sequence analysis

Comparative analysis of gene fragments of six housekeeping loci, distributed around the two chromosomes of Vibrio cholerae, has been carried out for a collection of 29 V. cholerae O139 Bengal strains isolated from India during the first epidemic period (1992 to 1993). A toxigenic O1 ElTor strain from the seventh pandemic and an environmental non-O1/non-O139 strain were also included in this study. All loci studied were polymorphic, with a small number of polymorphic sites in the sequenced fragments. The genetic diversity determined for our O139 population is concordant with a previous multilocus enzyme electrophoresis study in which we analyzed the same V. cholerae O139 strains. In both studies we have found a higher genetic diversity than reported previously in other molecular studies. The results of the present work showed that O139 strains clustered in several lineages of the dendrogram generated from the matrix of allelic mismatches between the different genotypes, a finding which does not support the hypothesis previously reported that the O139 serogroup is a unique clone. The statistical analysis performed in the V. cholerae O139 isolates suggested a clonal population structure. Moreover, the application of the Sawyer's test and split decomposition to detect intragenic recombination in the sequenced gene fragments did not indicate the existence of recombination in our O139 population.

More than Words? An Analysis on the Language and Structure of General Election Manifestos of the British Labour Party 1983-2005

The topic of this study is the language of the educational policies of the British Labour party in the General Election manifestos between the years 1983-2005. The twenty-year period studied has been a period of significant changes in world politics, and in British politics, especially for the Labour party. The emergence educational policy as a vote-winner of the manifestos of the nineties has been noteworthy. The aim of the thesis is two-fold: to look at the structure of the political manifesto as an example of genre writing and to analyze the content utilizing the approach of critical discourse analysis. Furthermore, the aim of this study is not to pinpoint policy positions but to look at what is the image that the Labour Party creates of itself through these manifestos. The analysis of the content is done by a method of close-reading. Based on the findings, the methodology for the analysis of the content was created. This study utilized methodological triangulation which means that the material is analyzed from several methodological aspects. The aspects used in this study are ones of lexical features (collocation, coordination, euphemisms, metaphors and naming), grammatical features (thematic roles, tense, aspect, voice and modal auxiliaries) and rhetoric (Burke, Toulmin and Perelman). From the analysis of the content a generic description is built. By looking at the lexical, grammatical and rhetorical features a clear change in language of the Labour Party can be detected. This change is foreshadowed already in the 1992 manifesto but culminates in the 1997 manifesto which would lead Labour to a landslide victory in the General Election. During this twenty-year period Labour has moved away from the old commitments and into the new sphere of “something for everybody”. The pervasiveness of promotional language and market inspired vocabulary into the sphere of manifesto writing is clear. The use of the metaphors seemed to be the tool for the creation of the image of the party represented through the manifestos. A limited generic description can be constructed from the findings based on the content and structure of the manifestos: especially more generic findings such as the use of the exclusive we, the lack of certain anatomical parts of argument structure, the use of the future tense and the present progressive aspect can shed light to the description of the genre of manifesto writing. While this study is only the beginning, it proves that the combination of looking at the lexical, grammatical and rhetorical features in the study of manifestos is a promising one.

On the Analysis and Control of a Linear Synchronous Servomotor with a Flexible Load

Industry's growing need for higher productivity is placing new demands on mechanisms connected with electrical motors, because these can easily lead to vibration problems due to fast dynamics. Furthermore, the nonlinear effects caused by a motor frequently reduce servo stability, which diminishes the controller's ability to predict and maintain speed. Hence, the flexibility of a mechanism and its control has become an important area of research. The basic approach in control system engineering is to assume that the mechanism connected to a motor is rigid, so that vibrations in the tool mechanism, reel, gripper or any apparatus connected to the motor are not taken into account. This might reduce the ability of the machine system to carry out its assignment and shorten the lifetime of the equipment. Nonetheless, it is usually more important to know how the mechanism, or in other words the load on the motor, behaves. A nonlinear load control method for a permanent magnet linear synchronous motor is developed and implemented in the thesis. The purpose of the controller is to track a flexible load to the desired velocity reference as fast as possible and without awkward oscillations. The control method is based on an adaptive backstepping algorithm with its stability ensured by the Lyapunov stability theorem. As a reference controller for the backstepping method, a hybrid neural controller is introduced in which the linear motor itself is controlled by a conventional PI velocity controller and the vibration of the associated flexible mechanism is suppressed from an outer control loop using a compensation signal from a multilayer perceptron network. To avoid the local minimum problem entailed in neural networks, the initial weights are searched for offline by means of a differential evolution algorithm. The states of a mechanical system for controllers are estimated using the Kalman filter. The theoretical results obtained from the control design are validated with the lumped mass model for a mechanism. Generalization of the mechanism allows the methods derived here to be widely implemented in machine automation. The control algorithms are first designed in a specially introduced nonlinear simulation model and then implemented in the physical linear motor using a DSP (Digital Signal Processor) application. The measurements prove that both controllers are capable of suppressing vibration, but that the backstepping method is superior to others due to its accuracy of response and stability properties.

Calculation analysis of energy saving tools for fan and pump applications

This thesis analyses the calculation of FanSave and PumpSave energy saving tools calculation. With these programs energy consumption of variable speed drive control for fans and pumps can be compared to other control methods. With FanSave centrifugal and axial fans can be examined and PumpSave deals with centrifugal pumps. By means of these programs also suitable frequency converter can be chosen from the ABB collection. Programs need as initial values information about the appliances like amount of flow and efficiencies. Operation time is important factor when calculating the annual energy consumption and information about it are the length and profile. Basic theory related to fans and pumps is introduced without more precise instructions for dimensioning. FanSave and PumpSave contain various methods for flow control. These control methods are introduced in the thesis based on their operational principles and suitability. Also squirrel cage motor and frequency converter are introduced because of their close involvement to fans and pumps. Second part of the thesis contains comparison between results of FanSave’s and PumpSave’s calculation and performance curve based calculation. Also laboratory tests were made with centrifugal and axial fan and also with centrifugal pump. With the results from this thesis the calculation of these programs can be adjusted to be more accurate and also some new features can be added.

A prospective evaluation of ultrasound as a diagnostic tool in acute microcrystalline arthritis.

INTRODUCTION: The performance of ultrasound (US) in the diagnosis of acute gouty (MSU) arthritis and calcium pyrophosphate (CPP) arthritis is not yet well defined. Most studies evaluated US as the basis for diagnosing crystal arthritis in already diagnosed cases of gout and few prospective studies have been performed. METHODS: One hundred nine consecutive patients who presented an acute arthritis of suspected microcrystalline arthritis were prospectively included. All underwent an US of the symptomatic joints(s) and of knees, ankles and 1(st) metatarsopalangeal (MTP) joints by a rheumatologist "blinded" to the clinical history. 92 also had standard X-rays. Crystal identification was the gold standard. RESULTS: Fifty-one patients had MSU, 28 CPP and 9 had both crystals by microscopic analysis. No crystals were detected in 21. One had septic arthritis. Based on US signs in the symptomatic joint, the sensitivity of US for both gout and CPP was low (60 % for both). In gout, the presence of US signs in the symptomatic joint was highly predictive of the diagnosis (PPV = 92 %). When US diagnosis was based on an examination of multiple joints, the sensitivity for both gout and CPP rose significantly but the specificity and the PPV decreased. In the absence of US signs in all the joints studied, CPP arthritis was unlikely (NPV = 87 %) particularly in patients with no previous crisis (NPV = 94 %). X-ray of the symptomatic joints was confirmed to be not useful in diagnosing gout and was equally sensitive or specific as US in CPP arthritis. CONCLUSIONS: Arthrocenthesis remains the key investigation for the diagnosis of microcrystalline acute arthritis. Although US can help in the diagnostic process, its diagnostic performance is only moderate. US should not be limited to the symptomatic joint. Examination of multiple joints gives a better diagnostic sensitivity but lower specificity.

A novel set of DIP-STR markers for improved analysis of challenging DNA mixtures.

Currently available molecular biology tools allow forensic scientists to characterize DNA evidence found at crime scenes for a large variety of samples, including those of limited quantity and quality, and achieve high levels of individualization. Yet, standard forensic markers provide limited or no results when applied to mixed DNA samples where the contributors are present in very different proportions (unbalanced DNA mixtures). This becomes an issue mostly for the analysis of trace samples collected on the victim or from touched objects. To this end, we recently proposed an innovative type of genetic marker, named DIP-STR that relies on pairing deletion/insertion polymorphisms (DIP) with standard short tandem repeats (STR). This novel compound marker allows detection of the minor DNA contributor in a DNA mixture of any gender and cellular origin with unprecedented resolution (beyond a DNA ratio of 1:1000). To provide a novel analytical tool useful in practice to common forensic laboratories, this article describes the first set of 10 DIP-STR markers selected according to forensic technical standards. The novel DIP-STR regions are short (between 146 and 271 bp), include only highly polymorphic tri-, tetra- and pentanucleotide tandem repeats and are located on different chromosomes or chromosomal arms to provide statistically independent results. This novel set of DIP-STR can target the amplification of 0.03-0.1 ng of DNA when mixed with a 1000-fold excess of major DNA. DIP-STR relative allele frequencies are estimated based on a survey of 103 Swiss individuals. Finally, this study provides an estimate of the occurrence of informative alleles and a calculation of the corresponding random match probability of the detected minor DIP-STR genotype assessed across 10,506 pairwise conceptual mixtures.

Accessory phases as a tool to investigate magmatic underplating in polymetamorphic metasediments : an example from a fossil lower crust : Ivrea Verbano zne, NW Italy

The Ivrea and the Strona-Ceneri zones, NW italy and S Switzerland, offer the possibility to study the continental crust of the Southern Alps. Because of its high metamorphic degree and the abundant Permo- Carboniferous mafic intrusions, the Ivrea Zone is classically interpreted an exposed section trough the Permian lower crust. The present work is focused here on metasedimentary slices (septa) intercalated within Permian gabbro (mafic complex). In particular I studied the evolution of accessory phases such as rutile and zircon and the chemistry of the metasediments. The septa build an irregular and discontinuous band that cut obliquely the mafic complex from its deepest part (N) to its roof (S). The chemistry of the metasediments evolves along the band and the chemical evolution can be compared with that observed in the country-rock surrounding the mafic intrusion to the NE and overprinted by a main regional metamorphic event. This suggests that the degree of chemical depletion of the septa was mainly established during the same regional metamorphic event. Moreover it suggests that incorporation of the septa within the gabbro did not modify their original stratigraphie distribution within the crust. It implies that the mafic complex has been emplaced following a dynamic substantially different from the classic model of « gabbro glacier » (Quick et al., 1992; Quick et al., 1994). It is more likely that it has been emplaced by repeated injections of sills at different depths during a protracted period of time. Zircon trace elements and U-Pb ages suggest that regional metamorphism occurred 330-320Ma, the first sills in the deepest part of the Mafic Complex are injected at ~300Ma, the mafic magmas reached higher levels in the crust at 285Ma and the magmatic activity continued locally until 275Ma. The ages of detrital cores in zircons fix the maximal sedimentation age at ~370Ma, this age corresponds therefore with the maximal age of the incorporation of the Ivrea zone within the lower crust. I propose that the Ivrea zone has been accreted to the lower crust during the Hercynian orogeny sensu lato. The analysis of detrital ages suggests that the source terrains for the Ivrea zone and those for the Strona-Ceneri zone have a completely different Palaeozoic history. The systematic analysis of rutile in partially molten metasediments of the Ivrea zone reveals the occurrence of two generations. The two generations are characterized by a different chemistry and textural distribution. A first generation is formed during pro-grade metamorphism in the restitic counterpart. The second generation is formed in the melts during cooling at the same time that part of the first generation re-equilibrate. Re-equilibration of the first generation seems to be spatially controlled by the presence of fluids. Locally the second generation forms overgrowths on the first generation. Considered the different diffusivity of U and Pb in rutile, U heterogeneities have important implication for U-Pb dating of rutile. ID-TIMS and LA-ICPMS dating coupled with a careful textural investigation (SEM) suggest that rutile grains are characterized by multiple path along which Pb diffusion can occur: volume diffusion is an important process, but intragrain and subgrain boundaries provide additional high diffusivity pathways for Pb escape and reduce drastically the effective diffusion length. -- La zone d'Ivrea et la zone de Strona-Ceneri, en Italie nord-occidentale et Suisse méridionale, offrent la possibilité d'étudier la croûte continentale des Alpes du Sud. En raison du haut degré métamorphique et l'abondance d'intrusions mafiques d'âge Permo-Carbonifère [complexe mafique), la zone d'Ivrea est interprétée classiquement comme de la croûte inférieure permienne. Ce travail ce concentre sur des bandes metasédimentaires (septa) incorporées dans les magmas mafiques lors de l'intrusion. Les septa forment une bande irrégulière qui coupe obliquement le complexe mafique du bas (N) vers le haut (S). La chimie des septa évolue du bas vers le haut et l'évolution chimique se rapproche de l'évolution observé dans la roche encaissante l'intrusion affecté par un événement métamorphique régionale. Cette relation suggère que le degré d'appauvrissement chimique des septa a été établit principalement lors de l'événement métamorphique régional. De plus l'incorporation dans les gabbros n'a pas perturbée la distribution stratigraphique originelle des septa. Ces deux observations impliquent que le métamorphisme dans la roche encaissante précède la mise en place du gabbro et que cette dernière ne se fait pas selon le modèle classique (« gabbro glacier » de Quick et al., 1992, 1994), mais se fait plutôt par injections répétées de sills a différentes profondeurs. Les âges U-Pb et les éléments traces des zircons suggèrent que le métamorphisme régionale a eu lieu 330-320Ma, alors que les premiers sills dans la partie profonde du Mafic Complex s'injectent à ~300Ma, le magmatisme mafique atteigne des niveaux supérieurs à 285Ma et continue localement jusqu'à 270Ma. Les âges des coeurs détritiques des zircons permettent de fixer l'âge maximale de sédimentation à ~370Ma ce qui correspond donc à l'âge maximale de l'incorporation de la zone d'Ivrea dans la croûte inférieur. L'analyse systématique des rutiles, nous a permit de montrer l'existence de plusieurs générations qui ont une répartition texturale et une chimie différente. Une génération se forme lors de l'événement UHT dans les restites, une autre génération se forme dans les liquides lors du refroidissement, au même temps qu'une partie de la première génération se rééquilibre au niveau du Zr. Localement la deuxième génération peut former des surcroissances autour de la première génération. Dans ces cas, des fortes différences en uranium entre les deux générations ont des importantes implications pour la datation U-Pb sur rutile. Classiquement les ratios Pb/U dans le rutile sont interprétés comme indiquant l'âges du refroidissement du minéral sous une température à la quelle la diffusion du Pb dans le minéral n'est plus détectable et la diffusion à plus hautes températures est assumée se faire par «volume diffusion» dans le grain (Mezger et al., 1989). Par des datations ID-TIMS (sur grain entier) et LA-ICPMS (in-situ) et une analyse texturale (MEB) approfondie nous montrons que cette supposition est trop simpliste et que le rutile est repartie en sous-domaines. Chacun de ces domaines a ça propre longueur ou chemin de diffusion spécifique. Nous proposons donc une nouvelle approche plus cohérente pour l'interprétation des âges U-Pb sur rutile.

Mercury analysis in hair: comparability and quality assessment within the transnational COPHES/DEMOCOPHES project

Human biomonitoring (HBM) is an effective tool for assessing actual exposure to chemicals that takes into account all routes of intake. Although hair analysis is considered to be an optimal biomarker for assessing mercury exposure, the lack of harmonization as regards sampling and analytical procedures has often limited the comparison of data at national and international level. The European-funded projects COPHES and DEMOCOPHES developed and tested a harmonized European approach to Human Biomonitoring in response to the European Environment and Health Action Plan. Herein we describe the quality assurance program (QAP) for assessing mercury levels in hair samples from more than 1800 mother-child pairs recruited in 17 European countries. To ensure the comparability of the results, standard operating procedures (SOPs) for sampling and for mercury analysis were drafted and distributed to participating laboratories. Training sessions were organized for field workers and four external quality-assessment exercises (ICI/EQUAS), followed by the corresponding web conferences, were organized between March 2011 and February 2012. ICI/EQUAS used native hair samples at two mercury concentration ranges (0.20-0.71 and 0.80-1.63) per exercise. The results revealed relative standard deviations of 7.87-13.55% and 4.04-11.31% for the low and high mercury concentration ranges, respectively. A total of 16 out of 18 participating laboratories the QAP requirements and were allowed to analyze samples from the DEMOCOPHES pilot study. Web conferences after each ICI/EQUAS revealed this to be a new and effective tool for improving analytical performance and increasing capacity building. The procedure developed and tested in COPHES/DEMOCOPHES would be optimal for application on a global scale as regards implementation of the Minamata Convention on Mercury.

Bayesian Networks for the Age Classification of Living Individuals: a Study on Transition Analysis

Over the past few decades, age estimation of living persons has represented a challenging task for many forensic services worldwide. In general, the process for age estimation includes the observation of the degree of maturity reached by some physical attributes, such as dentition or several ossification centers. The estimated chronological age or the probability that an individual belongs to a meaningful class of ages is then obtained from the observed degree of maturity by means of various statistical methods. Among these methods, those developed in a Bayesian framework offer to users the possibility of coherently dealing with the uncertainty associated with age estimation and of assessing in a transparent and logical way the probability that an examined individual is younger or older than a given age threshold. Recently, a Bayesian network for age estimation has been presented in scientific literature; this kind of probabilistic graphical tool may facilitate the use of the probabilistic approach. Probabilities of interest in the network are assigned by means of transition analysis, a statistical parametric model, which links the chronological age and the degree of maturity by means of specific regression models, such as logit or probit models. Since different regression models can be employed in transition analysis, the aim of this paper is to study the influence of the model in the classification of individuals. The analysis was performed using a dataset related to the ossifications status of the medial clavicular epiphysis and results support that the classification of individuals is not dependent on the choice of the regression model.