A Study of Stock Market Fluctuations and their Relations to Business Conditions

Most research on stock prices is based on the present value model or the more general consumption-based model. When applied to real economic data, both of them are found unable to account for both the stock price level and its volatility. Three essays here attempt to both build a more realistic model, and to check whether there is still room for bubbles in explaining fluctuations in stock prices. In the second chapter, several innovations are simultaneously incorporated into the traditional present value model in order to produce more accurate model-based fundamental prices. These innovations comprise replacing with broad dividends the more narrow traditional dividends that are more commonly used, a nonlinear artificial neural network (ANN) forecasting procedure for these broad dividends instead of the more common linear forecasting models for narrow traditional dividends, and a stochastic discount rate in place of the constant discount rate. Empirical results show that the model described above predicts fundamental prices better, compared with alternative models using linear forecasting process, narrow dividends, or a constant discount factor. Nonetheless, actual prices are still largely detached from fundamental prices. The bubble-like deviations are found to coincide with business cycles. The third chapter examines possible cointegration of stock prices with fundamentals and non-fundamentals. The output gap is introduced to form the non-fundamental part of stock prices. I use a trivariate Vector Autoregression (TVAR) model and a single equation model to run cointegration tests between these three variables. Neither of the cointegration tests shows strong evidence of explosive behavior in the DJIA and S&P 500 data. Then, I applied a sup augmented Dickey-Fuller test to check for the existence of periodically collapsing bubbles in stock prices. Such bubbles are found in S&P data during the late 1990s. Employing econometric tests from the third chapter, I continue in the fourth chapter to examine whether bubbles exist in stock prices of conventional economic sectors on the New York Stock Exchange. The ‘old economy’ as a whole is not found to have bubbles. But, periodically collapsing bubbles are found in Material and Telecommunication Services sectors, and the Real Estate industry group.

False Economy : Financialization, Crises and Socio-Economic Polarisation

Peer reviewed

Pay or conditions? The role of workplace characteristics in nurses’ labor supply

Acknowledgments We are grateful for the thoughtful comments of two referees. We would also like to thank conference participants at the Scottish Economic Society Conference and seminar participants at Newcastle University. Receipt of financial support from the ESRC is gratefully acknowledged (RES-000-23-1240). The Health Economics Research Unit is funded by the Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health and Social Care Directorates. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the authors.

False Economy : Financialization, Crises and Socio-Economic Polarisation

Peer reviewed

Pay or conditions? The role of workplace characteristics in nurses’ labor supply

Acknowledgments We are grateful for the thoughtful comments of two referees. We would also like to thank conference participants at the Scottish Economic Society Conference and seminar participants at Newcastle University. Receipt of financial support from the ESRC is gratefully acknowledged (RES-000-23-1240). The Health Economics Research Unit is funded by the Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health and Social Care Directorates. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the authors.

Building an alternative economic network? Consumer cooperation in Scotland from the 1870s to the 1960s

Peer reviewed

Election Forecasting under Opaque Conditions

Election forecasting models assume retrospective economic voting and clear mechanisms of accountability. Previous research indeed indicates that incumbent political parties are being held accountable for the state of the economy. In this article we develop a ‘hard case’ for the assumptions of election forecasting models. Belgium is a multiparty system with perennial coalition governments. Furthermore, Belgium has two completely segregated party systems (Dutch and French language). Since the prime minister during the period 1974-2011 has always been a Dutch language politician, French language voters could not even vote for the prime minister, so this cognitive shortcut to establish political accountability is not available. Results of an analysis for the French speaking parties (1981-2010) show that even in these conditions of opaque accountability, retrospective economic voting occurs as election results respond to indicators with regard to GDP and unemployment levels. Party membership figures can be used to model the popularity function in election forecasting.

Sandcastles of hope? Civil society organizations and the working conditions of migrant farmworkers in North America

This research explores whether civil society organizations (CSOs) can contribute to more effectively regulating the working conditions of temporary migrant farmworkers in North America. This dissertation unfolds in five parts. The first part of the dissertation sets out the background context. The context includes the political economy of agriculture and temporary migrant labour more broadly. It also includes the political economy of the legal regulations that govern immigration and work relations. The second part of the research builds an analytical model for studying the operation of CSOs active in working with the migrant farmworker population. The purpose of the analytical framework is to make sense of real-world examples by providing categories for analysis and a means to get at the channels of influence that CSOs utilize to achieve their aims. To this end, the model incorporates the insights from three significant bodies of literature—regulatory studies, labour studies, and economic sociology. The third part of the dissertation suggests some key strategic issues that CSOs should consider when intervening to assist migrant farmworkers, and also proposes a series of hypotheses about how CSOs can participate in the regulatory process. The fourth part probes and extends these hypotheses by empirically investigating the operation of three CSOs that are currently active in assisting migrant farm workers in North America: the Agricultural Workers Alliance (Canada), Global Workers’ Justice Alliance (USA), and the Coalition of Immokalee Workers (USA). The fifth and final part draws together lessons from the empirical work and concluded that CSOs can fill gaps left by the waning power of actors, such as trade unions and labour inspectorates, as well as act in ways that these traditional actors can not.

The Economic Case for Electric Mining Equipment and Technical Considerations Relating to their Implementation

Underground hardrock mining can be very energy intensive and in large part this can be attributed to the power consumption of underground ventilation systems. In general, the power consumed by a mine’s ventilation system and its overall scale are closely related to the amount of diesel power in operation. This is because diesel exhaust is a major source of underground air pollution, including diesel particulate matter (DPM), NO2 and heat, and because regulations tie air volumes to diesel engines. Furthermore, assuming the size of airways remains constant, the power consumption of the main system increases exponentially with the volume of air supplied to the mine. Therefore large diesel fleets lead to increased energy consumption and can also necessitate large capital expenditures on ventilation infrastructure in order to manage power requirements. Meeting ventilation requirements for equipment in a heading can result in a similar scenario with the biggest pieces leading to higher energy consumption and potentially necessitating larger ventilation tubing and taller drifts. Depending on the climate where the mine is located, large volumes of air can have a third impact on ventilation costs if heating or cooling the air is necessary. Annual heating and cooling costs, as well as the cost of the associated infrastructure, are directly related to the volume of air sent underground. This thesis considers electric mining equipment as a means for reducing the intensity and cost of energy consumption at underground, hardrock mines. Potentially, electric equipment could greatly reduce the volume of air needed to ventilate an entire mine as well as individual headings because they do not emit many of the contaminants found in diesel exhaust and because regulations do not connect air volumes to electric motors. Because of the exponential relationship between power consumption and air volumes, this could greatly reduce the amount of power required for mine ventilation as well as the capital cost of ventilation infrastructure. As heating and cooling costs are also directly linked to air volumes, the cost and energy intensity of heating and cooling the air would also be significantly reduced. A further incentive is that powering equipment from the grid is substantially cheaper than fuelling them with diesel and can also produce far fewer GHGs. Therefore, by eliminating diesel from the underground workers will enjoy safer working conditions and operators and society at large will gain from a smaller impact on the environment. Despite their significant potential, in order to produce a credible economic assessment of electric mining equipment their impact on underground systems must be understood and considered in their evaluation. Accordingly, a good deal of this thesis reviews technical considerations related to the use of electric mining equipment, especially ones that impact the economics of their implementation. The goal of this thesis will then be to present the economic potential of implementing the equipment, as well as to outline the key inputs which are necessary to support an evaluation and to provide a model and an approach which can be used by others if the relevant information is available and acceptable assumptions can be made.

The Worsening of the employment and work conditions and its relationship to the self-perceived health in European working population. Relevance and effects of the latest socioeconomic crisis

The recent crisis of the capitalistic economic system has altered the working conditions and occupations in the European Union. The recession situation has accelerated trends and has brought transformations that have been observed before. Changes have not looked the same way in all the countries of the Union. The social occupation norms, labour relations models and the type of global welfare provision can help underline some of these inequalities. Poor working conditions can expose workers to situations of great risk. This is one of the basic assumptions of the theoretical models and analytical studies of the approach to the psychosocial work environment. Changes in working conditions of the population seems to be important to explain in the worst health states. To observe these features in the current period of economic recession it has made a comparative study of trend through the possibilities of the European Working Conditions Survey in the 2005 and 2010 editions. It has also set different multivariate logistic regression models to explore potential partnerships with the worst conditions of employment and work. It seems that the economic crisis has intensified changes in working conditions and highlighted the effects of those conditions on the poor health of the working population. This conclusion can’t be extended for all EU countries; some differences were observed in terms of global welfare models.

Economic crisis and national health system

The text analyzes the impact of the economic crisis in some critical aspects of the National Health System: outcomes, health expenditure, remuneration policy and privatization through Private Public Partnership models. Some health outcomes related to social inequalities are worrying. Reducing public health spending has increased the fragility of the health system, reduced wage income of workers in the sector and increased heterogeneity between regions. Finally, the evidence indicates that privatization does not mean more efficiency and better governance. Deep reforms are needed to strengthen the National Health System.

National incomes and economic growth in pre-industrial Europe: insights from recent research

Pessimistic Malthusian verdicts on the capacity of pre-industrial European economies to sustain a degree of real economic growth under conditions of population growth are challenged using current reconstructions of urbanisation ratios, the real wage rates of building and agricultural labourers, and GDP per capita estimated by a range of methods. Economic growth is shown to have outpaced population growth and raised GDP per capita to in excess of $1,500 (1990 $ international at PPP) in Italy during its twelfth- and thirteenth-century commercial revolution, Holland during its fifteenth- and sixteenth-century golden age, and England during the seventeenth- and eighteenth-century runup to its industrial revolution. During each of these Smithian growth episodes expanding trade and commerce sustained significant output and employment growth in the manufacturing and service sectors. These positive developments were not necessarily reflected by trends in real wage rates for the latter were powerfully influenced by associated changes in relative factor prices and the per capita supply of labour as workers varied the length of the working year in order to consume either more leisure or more goods. The scale of the divergence between trends in real wage rates and GDP per capita nevertheless varied a great deal between countries for reasons which have yet to be adequately explained.

Living conditions in old age: Coexisting disadvantages across life domains

The aim of this thesis was to analyse coexisting disadvantages in the older Swedish population. Coexisting disadvantages are those that occur simultaneously in various life domains. A person who simultaneously experiences several disadvantages may be particularly vulnerable and less well-equipped to manage daily life and may also need support from several different welfare service providers. Concerted actions may be needed for older people who experience not only physical health problems and functional limitations, but also other problems. Research that encompasses a wide range of living conditions provides a basis for setting political priorities and making political decisions. The studies in this thesis used data from two Swedish nationally representative surveys: the Level of Living Survey, which includes people aged 18 through 75, and the Swedish Panel Study of Living Conditions of the Oldest Old, which includes people aged 77 and older. Study I showed that the probability of experiencing coexisting disadvantages was higher in people 77 and older than in those aged 18 through 76. These age differences were partly driven by a high prevalence of physical health problems in older people. In all age groups, coexisting disadvantages were more common in women than men. The longitudinal analyses in Study II indicated that coexisting disadvantages in old age persist in some people but are temporary in others. Moreover, the results suggested a pattern of accumulating disadvantages: reporting one disadvantage in young old age (in particular, psychological health problems) increased the probability of reporting coexisting disadvantages in late old age.   Study III showed that physical health problems were a central component of coexisting disadvantages. The results also showed that being older; female; previously employed as a manual labourer; and divorced/separated, widowed or never married were associated with an increased probability of experiencing coexisting disadvantages. However, the experience of coexisting disadvantages differed: the groups associated with coexisting disadvantages tended to report different combinations of disadvantage. Study IV showed that the prevalence of coexisting disadvantages in those 77 and older increased slightly between 1992 and 2011. Physical health problems became more common over time, whereas limited ability to manage daily activities (ADL limitations), limited financial resources and limited political resources became less common. Associations between different disadvantages were found in all survey years, but certain associations changed over time. The results suggest that in general, the composition of coexisting disadvantages in the older population may have altered over time. In sum, results showed that coexisting disadvantages were associated with specific demographic and socio-economic groups. Physical health problems and psychological health problems were of particular importance to the accumulation and coexistence of disadvantages in old age.

Economic Development and Mass Poverty in Africa: Assessment of the Nigerian Experience

The forces surrounding the emerging economies of underdeveloped world, especially Africa has practically stifled its economic progress, growth, development and sustainability. This economic condition brings to the fore the massive onslaught of rural/urban poverty which the African continent grapples with since the post-world war II era to date. The economic misfortunes and incidence of mass poverty in Africa, vis-à-vis Nigeria is used as a point of departure in this study. The paper underscores the ideological and philosophical undertone of international capital manifesting in form of colonialism and imperialism as a major character in the historical process of underdevelopment and mass poverty in peripheral states of Africa, Asia and Latin America, respectively. Of particular interest in this study is the activities of domestic bourgeoisie elite class who have vigorously displayed some degree of lack of much needed vision and abject lack of desires to draw up workable plans to redeem the battered image of African/ Nigerian economic misfortunes. This state of affairs has practically engendered economic underdevelopment, misery and disturbing levels of poverty in the nation-state system. The paper concludes with the forward towards realizing the vision 20-20-20 objectives in the 21t century and beyond.

Development of an Economic Dust Palliative for Limestone Surfaced Secondary Roads, HR-297, Progress Report, 1988

Research activities during this period concentrated on continuation of field and laboratory testing for the Dallas County test road. Stationary ditch collection of dust was eliminated because of inconsistent data, and because of vandalism to collectors. Braking tests were developed and initiated to evaluate the influence of treatments on braking and safety characteristics of the test sections. Dust testing was initiated for out of the wheelpath conditions as well as in the wheelpath. Contrary to the results obtained during the summer and fall of 1987, the 1.5 percent bentonite treatment appears to be outperforming the other bentonite treated sections after over a year of service. Overall dust reduction appears to average between 25 to 35 percent. Dallas County applied 300 tons per mile of class A roadstone maintenance surfacing to the test road in August 1988. Test data indicates that the bentonite is capable of interacting and functioning to reduce dust generation of the new surfacing material. Again, the 1.5 percent bentonite treatment appeared the most effective. The fine particulate bonding and aggregation mechanism of the bentonite appears recoverable from the environmental effects of winter, and from alternating wet and dry road surface conditions. The magnesium chloride treatment appears capable of long-term (over one year) dust reduction and exhibited an overall average reduction in the range of 15 to 30 percent. The magnesium chloride treatment also appears capable of interacting with newly applied crushed stone to reduce dust generation. Two additional one mile test roads were to have been constructed early this year. Due to an extremely dry spring and summer, construction scheduling was not possible until August. This would have allowed only minimal data collection. Considering this and the fact that this was an atypically dry summer, it was our opinion that it would be in the best interest of the research project to extend the project (at no additional cost) for a period of one year. The two additional test roads will be constructed in early spring 1989 in Adair and Marion counties.