Mikroblogintza tekniken erabilera programazioan sortzen diren zalantzak ebazteko

Gaur egun Twitter moduko mikroblogintza aplikazioak zalantzak argitzeko gero eta gehiago erabiltzen dira. Erabiltzaileak laguntza eskaera adierazi eta sare sozialaren bidez bere kontaktuei helarazi egiten zaie. Erabiltzaileak galdera eta erantzunen kudeaketa sare sozial nahaste baten barruan egin beharko du. Proiektuaren helburu nagusia mikroblogintza plataformetako kanala programazio lengoaien IDEen barruan bateratzea da, modu honetan laguntza eskatzeko prozesua IDEetan bertan kudeatzeko.

Efficient methods for empirical tests of behavioral economics theories in laboratory and field experiments

In the quest for a descriptive theory of decision-making, the rational actor model in economics imposes rather unrealistic expectations and abilities on human decision makers. The further we move from idealized scenarios, such as perfectly competitive markets, and ambitiously extend the reach of the theory to describe everyday decision making situations, the less sense these assumptions make. Behavioural economics has instead proposed models based on assumptions that are more psychologically realistic, with the aim of gaining more precision and descriptive power. Increased psychological realism, however, comes at the cost of a greater number of parameters and model complexity. Now there are a plethora of models, based on different assumptions, applicable in differing contextual settings, and selecting the right model to use tends to be an ad-hoc process. In this thesis, we develop optimal experimental design methods and evaluate different behavioral theories against evidence from lab and field experiments.

We look at evidence from controlled laboratory experiments. Subjects are presented with choices between monetary gambles or lotteries. Different decision-making theories evaluate the choices differently and would make distinct predictions about the subjects' choices. Theories whose predictions are inconsistent with the actual choices can be systematically eliminated. Behavioural theories can have multiple parameters requiring complex experimental designs with a very large number of possible choice tests. This imposes computational and economic constraints on using classical experimental design methods. We develop a methodology of adaptive tests: Bayesian Rapid Optimal Adaptive Designs (BROAD) that sequentially chooses the "most informative" test at each stage, and based on the response updates its posterior beliefs over the theories, which informs the next most informative test to run. BROAD utilizes the Equivalent Class Edge Cutting (EC²) criteria to select tests. We prove that the EC² criteria is adaptively submodular, which allows us to prove theoretical guarantees against the Bayes-optimal testing sequence even in the presence of noisy responses. In simulated ground-truth experiments, we find that the EC² criteria recovers the true hypotheses with significantly fewer tests than more widely used criteria such as Information Gain and Generalized Binary Search. We show, theoretically as well as experimentally, that surprisingly these popular criteria can perform poorly in the presence of noise, or subject errors. Furthermore, we use the adaptive submodular property of EC² to implement an accelerated greedy version of BROAD which leads to orders of magnitude speedup over other methods.

We use BROAD to perform two experiments. First, we compare the main classes of theories for decision-making under risk, namely: expected value, prospect theory, constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) and moments models. Subjects are given an initial endowment, and sequentially presented choices between two lotteries, with the possibility of losses. The lotteries are selected using BROAD, and 57 subjects from Caltech and UCLA are incentivized by randomly realizing one of the lotteries chosen. Aggregate posterior probabilities over the theories show limited evidence in favour of CRRA and moments' models. Classifying the subjects into types showed that most subjects are described by prospect theory, followed by expected value. Adaptive experimental design raises the possibility that subjects could engage in strategic manipulation, i.e. subjects could mask their true preferences and choose differently in order to obtain more favourable tests in later rounds thereby increasing their payoffs. We pay close attention to this problem; strategic manipulation is ruled out since it is infeasible in practice, and also since we do not find any signatures of it in our data.

In the second experiment, we compare the main theories of time preference: exponential discounting, hyperbolic discounting, "present bias" models: quasi-hyperbolic (α, β) discounting and fixed cost discounting, and generalized-hyperbolic discounting. 40 subjects from UCLA were given choices between 2 options: a smaller but more immediate payoff versus a larger but later payoff. We found very limited evidence for present bias models and hyperbolic discounting, and most subjects were classified as generalized hyperbolic discounting types, followed by exponential discounting.

In these models the passage of time is linear. We instead consider a psychological model where the perception of time is subjective. We prove that when the biological (subjective) time is positively dependent, it gives rise to hyperbolic discounting and temporal choice inconsistency.

We also test the predictions of behavioral theories in the "wild". We pay attention to prospect theory, which emerged as the dominant theory in our lab experiments of risky choice. Loss aversion and reference dependence predicts that consumers will behave in a uniquely distinct way than the standard rational model predicts. Specifically, loss aversion predicts that when an item is being offered at a discount, the demand for it will be greater than that explained by its price elasticity. Even more importantly, when the item is no longer discounted, demand for its close substitute would increase excessively. We tested this prediction using a discrete choice model with loss-averse utility function on data from a large eCommerce retailer. Not only did we identify loss aversion, but we also found that the effect decreased with consumers' experience. We outline the policy implications that consumer loss aversion entails, and strategies for competitive pricing.

In future work, BROAD can be widely applicable for testing different behavioural models, e.g. in social preference and game theory, and in different contextual settings. Additional measurements beyond choice data, including biological measurements such as skin conductance, can be used to more rapidly eliminate hypothesis and speed up model comparison. Discrete choice models also provide a framework for testing behavioural models with field data, and encourage combined lab-field experiments.

Calibration of Grassholme Channels, 1982

Adjustment of experimental channels to give any specified pattern of water depth or velocity is complex and tedious because it involves a number of variables. Since some variables are not controllable and variables may interact, valve settings of the Grassholme channels were initially determined on an ad hoc basis to suit individual experiments. This method was used during 1982 but additional observations were made in order to gain more detailed understanding of the channel system and, as far as possible, to develop a guide to future short-cuts in attaining suitable channel settings for any given purpose. This report describes calibration of the Grassholme channels (using water of the Grassholme Reservoir) for the biological experiments of spring - summer 1982. The main variables that are discussed are valve turns and discharge and velocity and depth. It also seeks to establish relationships which will be of value in future managment of the channels for experimental purposes.

A política pública de emprego: entre a pracarização desprotegida e a precarização protegida. Um estudo comparativo entre Brasil e Itália

Este trabalho discute a política de emprego implementada no Brasil e na Itália nos últimos 10 anos. A ideia central é de que a política de emprego vem sendo alvo de estratégias por parte do Estado brasileiro e italiano como forma de responder ao problema endêmico do desemprego e se encontra dentro das exigências propostas pelas agências multilaterais para minimizar os impactos das mudanças em curso no âmbito do trabalho. Embora o desemprego sempre tenha sido um elemento fundamental na dinâmica das relações sociais de produção capitalista, tendo em vista que a formação de um excedente de trabalhadores é condição fundamental para a extração da taxa de mais-valia, através do trabalho não pago e expropriado pelo capitalista, ele vem sendo considerado como um processo natural, sem qualquer vinculação com a lógica da acumulação capitalista e, portanto, as políticas de emprego revelam-se como medidas pontuais que tendem a responsabilizar os sujeitos pela sua "incapacidade" de se adequar às mudanças em curso. neste sentido, as ações propostas reforçam o incentivo ao empreendedorismo, a precarização das condições de trabalho, no incremento do trabalho feminino e juvenil e na retirada gradativa de direitos sociais e trabalhistas. As consequências não podem ser percebidas igualmente nos dois países, haja vista as condições sócio-históricas que deram luz ao Estado social permitindo que na Itália as mudanças em curso apontem para uma precarização protegida e no Brasil numa precarização desprotegida.

Evaluación de la actividad científica: conectividad relevante y calidad relacional. Una propuesta teórico-metodológica

[338] p.

The deliberate practice: the sports excellence versus the musical excellence

[ENG] If we look around us, we can observe that there is someone who is the best in each field of activity. We could think that they are exceptional individuals. This Final Project aims to increase knowledge of the effects of Deliberate Practice in the domains of music and sport. This will define you a concept of Deliberate Practice and then focus on the diversity of situations in which it shows us how it is presented in real life. From a questionnaire that has been designed for this study and distributed to the music students, I have expected to obtain a result that allow me to come to the conclusion that exists a relation between the hours of practice and the expertise in the execution. This reality has been linked to the regarding situation in the sport practice, whose information has been provided by the coordinators of the different sports. Taking into account the limited number of references available, this work has focused on a qualitative analysis of the data, interpreted from my point of view and my personal experience, which has been confirmed in the results obtained. The statistics managed allow me to conclude that, although the argument is not definitive, the guide effort through deliberate practice is essential to achieve the excellence.

Evaluating boundary dependent errors in QM/MM simulations.

Hybrid quantum mechanics/molecular mechanics (QM/MM) simulations provide a powerful tool for studying chemical reactions, especially in complex biochemical systems. In most works to date, the quantum region is kept fixed throughout the simulation and is defined in an ad hoc way based on chemical intuition and available computational resources. The simulation errors associated with a given choice of the quantum region are, however, rarely assessed in a systematic manner. Here we study the dependence of two relevant quantities on the QM region size: the force error at the center of the QM region and the free energy of a proton transfer reaction. Taking lysozyme as our model system, we find that in an apolar region the average force error rapidly decreases with increasing QM region size. In contrast, the average force error at the polar active site is considerably higher, exhibits large oscillations and decreases more slowly, and may not fall below acceptable limits even for a quantum region radius of 9.0 A. Although computation of free energies could only be afforded until 6.0 A, results were found to change considerably within these limits. These errors demonstrate that the results of QM/MM calculations are heavily affected by the definition of the QM region (not only its size), and a convergence test is proposed to be a part of setting up QM/MM simulations.

In Bello, Pax: a responsabilidade penal dos brasileiros em Operações de Paz

Esta Tese analisa a possibilidade de responsabilização penal dos brasileiros que têm participado de operações de paz capitaneadas ou delegadas pela Organização das Nações Unidas. Além de apresentar como se procede esta responsabilização no ambiente nacional, também analisa a possibilidade de sua responsabilização internacional diante da evolução que esta tem constatado desde o final do período conhecido como guerra-fria. Para tanto, parte de uma contextualização histórica da evolução e modificação das operações de paz, mostrando como o Brasil também modificou sua inserção nesta questão, em especial depois de 1990. Decorrente desse relevante aumento de responsabilidades e numérico de brasileiros engajados nestas operações apresenta como a fundamentação doutrinária legal e normativa também sofreu significativas mudanças nas últimas décadas. A partir deste ponto, fazendo uso de metodologia analítico-descritiva, apresenta as qualificações jurídicas admitidas, análise dos principais documentos internacionais que abordam a responsabilização penal dos integrantes de operações de paz e como se processa a relação entre estes documentos e o ordenamento jurídico brasileiro. Procura analisar como se processa, no ambiente interno, a jurisdição e competência para julgamento destas questões. Apresenta como o direito internacional tem sido influenciado pelo crescimento do direito internacional penal e como este pode se manifestar diante de integrantes de operações de paz, fazendo, inclusive, uma abordagem de como outras cortes internacionais têm se manifestado sobre a questão. Parte de decisões de direito interno de outros países, mostra a contribuição que os tribunais Ad Hoc instituídos pela ONU trouxeram para culminar na análise da possibilidade (ou não) de responsabilização destes integrantes pelo Tribunal Penal Internacional, ou mesmo, por terceiros Estados fazendo uso da Jurisdição Universal. Assim, a tese demonstra que efetivamente o Brasil dispõe de meios para exercer sua plena jurisdição perante seus nacionais envolvidos nestas operações internacionais, no entanto, a fim de garantir maior adensamento de juridicidade e sustentação legal, aponta possíveis soluções como contribuição para dirimir eventuais ponderações internas e internacionais.

Lehen Hezkuntzan autoezagutza fisikoa, emozionala eta soziala lantzeko proposamen didaktiko baten diseinua eta esku-hartzea

[eus] Autoezagutza ez akademikoa pertsonaren garapenaren pilare funtsezkoenetariko bat kontsideratzen da. Aldaketaren bat eragiteko asmoz, Lehen Hezkuntzako hirugarren mailako neska eta mutilei zuzenduta dauden ekintza batzuk diseinatu eta praktikan jarri dira. Adin honetako neska eta mutilak, haien nortasuna eta batez ere autoezagutzaren garapenaren erdian aurkitzen dira. Horregatik, “ad hoc” diseinatu diren pretest eta postest baten bitartez, ekintza hauek espero ziren aldaketak sorrarazi dituzten ebaluatu da.

Etymological notes on Aleut (III). With methodological notes on (Eskimo-Aleut) historical linguistics

[EN] The goal of this contribution is twofold: on the one hand, to review two relatively recent contributions in the field of Eskimo-Aleut historical linguistics in which it is proposed that Eskimo-Aleut languages are related genealogically to Wakashan (Holst 2004) and?/or Nostratic (Krougly-Enke 2008). These contributions can be characterized by saying that their authors have taken little care to be diligent and responsible in the application of the comparative method, and that their familiarity with the languages involved is insufficient. Eskimo-Aleut languages belong to a very exclusive group of language families that have been (and still are) used, sometimes compulsively, in the business of so-called “long-range comparisons”. Those carrying out such studies are very often unaware of the most basic facts regarding the philological and linguistic traditions of those languages, as a result of what mountains of very low quality works with almost no-relevancy for the specialist grow every year to the desperation of the scientific community, whose attitude toward them ranges from the most profound indifference to the toughest (and most explicit) critical tone. Since Basque also belongs to this group of “compare-with-everything-you-come- across” languages, it is my intention to provide the Basque readership with a sort of “pedagogical case” to show that little known languages, far from underrepresented in the field, already have a very long tradition in historical and comparative linguistics, i.e. nobody can approach them without previous acquaintance with the materials. Studies dealing with the methodological inappropriateness of the Moscow School’s Nostratic hypothesis or the incorrectness of many of the proposed new taxonomic Amerindian subfamilies (several of them involving the aforementioned Wakashan languages), that is to say, the frameworks on which Krougly-Enke and Holst work, respectively, are plenty (i.a. Campbell 1997: 260-329, Campbell & Poser 2008: 234-96), therefore there is no reason to insist once more on the very same point. This is the reason why I will not discuss per se Eskimo-Aleut–Wakashan or Eskimo-Aleut–Nostratic. On the contrary, I will focus attention upon very concrete aspects of Krougly-Enke and Holst´s proposals, i.e. when they work on “less ambitious” problems, for example, dealing with the minutiae of internal facts or analyzing certain words from the sole perspective of Eskimo-Aleut materials (in other words, those cases in which even they do not invoke the ad hoc help of Nostratic stuff). I will try to explain why some of their proposals are wrong, demonstrate where the problem lies, and fix it if possible. In doing so, I will propose new etymologies in an attempt at showing how we may proceed. The main difference between this and handbook examples lies in the reality of what we are doing: this is a pure etymological exercise from beginning to end. I will try to throw a bit of light on a couple of problematic questions regarding Aleut historical phonology, demonstrating how much work should be done at the lowest level of the Eskimo-Aleut pyramid; it is technically impossible to reach the peak of the pyramid without having completed the base. As far as Aleut is regarded, I will mainly profit not only from the use of the traditional philological analysis of Aleut (and, eventually, of Eskimo) materials, but also of diachronic typology, bringing into discussion what in my opinion seems useful, and in some cases I think decisive, parallels. It is worth noting that this paper makes up yet another part of a series of exploratory works dealing with etymological aspects of the reconstruction of Proto-Eskimo-Aleut, with special emphasis on Aleut (vid. i.a. Alonso de la Fuente 2006/2007, 2008a, 2008b, 2010a), whose main goal is to become the solid basis for an etymological dictionary of the Aleut language, currently in progress.

On the Stability and Equilibrium Points of Multistaged SI (n) R Epidemic Models

This paper relies on the concept of next generation matrix defined ad hoc for a new proposed extended SEIR model referred to as SI(n)R-model to study its stability. The model includes n successive stages of infectious subpopulations, each one acting at the exposed subpopulation of the next infectious stage in a cascade global disposal where each infectious population acts as the exposed subpopulation of the next infectious stage. The model also has internal delays which characterize the time intervals of the coupling of the susceptible dynamics with the infectious populations of the various cascade infectious stages. Since the susceptible subpopulation is common, and then unique, to all the infectious stages, its coupled dynamic action on each of those stages is modeled with an increasing delay as the infectious stage index increases from 1 to n. The physical interpretation of the model is that the dynamics of the disease exhibits different stages in which the infectivity and the mortality rates vary as the individual numbers go through the process of recovery, each stage with a characteristic average time.

Localização de Terminais Móveis utilizando Correlação de Assinaturas de Rádio-Frequência.

Nesta dissertação são analisados métodos de localização baseados na rede, com destaque para os métodos de correlação de assinaturas de rádio-frequência (DCM - Database Correlation Methods). Métodos baseados na rede não requerem modificações nos terminais móveis (MS - Mobile Stations), sendo portanto capazes de estimar a localização de MS legados, i.e., sem suporte específico a posicionamento. Esta característica, associada a alta disponibilidade e precisão dos métodos DCM, torna-os candidatos viáveis para diversas aplicações baseadas em posição, e em particular para a localização de chamadas para números de emergência - polícia, defesa civil, corpo de bombeiros, etc. - originadas de telefones móveis celulares. Duas técnicas para diminuição do tempo médio para produção de uma estimativa de posição são formuladas: a filtragem determinística e a busca otimizada utilizando algoritmos genéticos. Uma modificação é realizada nas funções de avaliação utilizadas em métodos DCM, inserindo um fator representando a inacurácia intrínseca às medidas de nível de sinal realizadas pelos MS. As modificações propostas são avaliadas experimentalmente em redes de telefonia móvel celular de segunda e terceira gerações em ambientes urbanos e suburbanos, assim como em redes locais sem fio em ambiente indoor. A viabilidade da utilização de bancos de dados de correlação (CDB - Correlation Database) construídos a partir de modelagem de propagação é analisada, bem como o efeito da calibração de modelos de propagação empíricos na precisão de métodos DCM. Um dos métodos DCM propostos, utilizando um CDB calibrado, teve um desempenho superior ao de vários outros métodos DCM publicados na literatura, atingindo em área urbana a precisão exigida dos métodos baseados na rede pela regulamentação FCC (Federal Communications Commission) para o serviço E911 (Enhanced 911 ).

Evolution of the tectogene concept, 1930-1965

The tectogene, or crustal downbuckle, was proposed in the early 1930s by F.A. Vening Meinesz to explain the unexpected belts of negative gravity anomalies in island arcs. He attributed the isostatic imbalance to a deep sialic root resulting from the action of subcrustal convection currents. Vening Meinesz's model was initially corroborated experimentally by P.H. Kuenen, but additional experiments by D.T. Griggs and geological analysis by H.H. Hess in the late 1930s led to substantial revision in detail. As modified, the tectogene provided a plausible model for the evolution of island arcs into alpine mountain belts for another two decades. Additional revisions became necessary in the early 1950s to accommodate the unexpected absence of sialic crust in the Caribbean and the marginal seas of the western Pacific. By 1960 the cherished analogy between island arcs and alpine mountain belts had collapsed under the weight of the detailed field investigations by Hess and his students in the Caribbean region. Hess then incorporated a highly modified form of the tectogene into his sea-floor spreading hypothesis. Ironically, this final incarnation of the concept preserved some of the weaker aspects of the 1930s original, such as the ad hoc explanation for the regular geometry of island arcs.

Vítimas e monstros: a construção do tipo "abuso sexual infantil" em laudos psicológicos no Judiciário.

Abuso sexual infantil é tomado na acepção do construcionismo social, como tipo classificatório, e com uma abordagem histórica. As fortes cargas moral e emocional da categoria são sublinhadas, assim como a noção de carreira moral da criança abusada e de abusador. A psicologia é um dos campos e disciplinas que construiu a categoria e a molda diariamente em suas práticas, teorizações e inclusão em instituições sociais e políticas. A dissertação busca analisar esta moldagem numa amostra de laudos psicológicos relativos a acusações de abuso sexual, constantes de processos de Varas de Família e Varas Criminais no Judiciário do Rio de Janeiro. Os laudos analisados são de autoria de psicólogos do quadro do Tribunal de Justiça do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (TJ-RJ), de psicólogos nomeados ad hoc, de instituições de atendimento a vítimas de violência sexual e de consultórios particulares. Como complementação, são analisadas entrevistas feitas com cinco psicólogos do quadro do TJ-RJ sobre laudos em acusações de abuso sexual infantil e sobre a categoria, afirmando a presença permanente desta, apesar de não mais como um boom (ocorrido no início dos anos 2000), em processos de guarda e visitação de filhos e criminais. A análise constatou a presença de duas posturas da psicologia, a das Varas de Família, que trabalha com a correlação litígio-falsa acusação de abuso sexual- alienação parental, em visão determinista, e a das Varas Criminais, marcada pela exclusão da avaliação do homem acusado e por fortes preconcepções, apoiadas na psicologia do abuso sexual, sobre a amplitude dos abusos sexuais e o testemunho da criança vítima e dos acusadores. Noções controversas de manuais clássicos da psicologia do abuso sexual, da psiquiatria e do senso comum sobre vitimização, sequelas, síndromes, pedofilia estão presentes nos laudos, assim como, mais raramente, o reconhecimento da sexualidade infantil e adolescente. O homem pode aparecer como um pai vitimizado ou um monstro moralmente desqualificado.

Application of a laminar flamelet model to confined explosion hazards

The majority of computational studies of confined explosion hazards apply simple and inaccurate combustion models, requiring ad hoc corrections to obtain realistic flame shapes and often predicting an order of magnitude error in the overpressures. This work describes the application of a laminar flamelet model to a series of two-dimensional test cases. The model is computationally efficient applying an algebraic expression to calculate the flame surface area, an empirical correlation for the laminar flame speed and a novel unstructured, solution adaptive numerical grid system which allows important features of the solution to be resolved close to the flame. Accurate flame shapes are predicted, the correct burning rate is predicted near the walls, and an improvement in the predicted overpressures is obtained. However, in these fully turbulent calculations the overpressures are still too high and the flame arrival times too low, indicating the need for a model for the early laminar burning phase. Due to the computational expense, it is unrealistic to model a laminar flame in the complex geometries involved and therefore a pragmatic approach is employed which constrains the flame to propagate at the laminar flame speed. Transition to turbulent burning occurs at a specified turbulent Reynolds number. With the laminar phase model included, the predicted flame arrival times increase significantly, but are still too low. However, this has no significant effect on the overpressures, which are predicted accurately for a baffled channel test case where rapid transition occurs once the flame reaches the first pair of baffles. In a channel with obstacles on the centreline, transition is more gradual and the accuracy of the predicted overpressures is reduced. However, although the accuracy is still less than desirable in some cases, it is much better than the order of magnitude error previously expected.