Diagnostic Tests Based on Quantile Residuals for Nonlinear Time Series Models

This thesis studies quantile residuals and uses different methodologies to develop test statistics that are applicable in evaluating linear and nonlinear time series models based on continuous distributions. Models based on mixtures of distributions are of special interest because it turns out that for those models traditional residuals, often referred to as Pearson's residuals, are not appropriate. As such models have become more and more popular in practice, especially with financial time series data there is a need for reliable diagnostic tools that can be used to evaluate them. The aim of the thesis is to show how such diagnostic tools can be obtained and used in model evaluation. The quantile residuals considered here are defined in such a way that, when the model is correctly specified and its parameters are consistently estimated, they are approximately independent with standard normal distribution. All the tests derived in the thesis are pure significance type tests and are theoretically sound in that they properly take the uncertainty caused by parameter estimation into account. -- In Chapter 2 a general framework based on the likelihood function and smooth functions of univariate quantile residuals is derived that can be used to obtain misspecification tests for various purposes. Three easy-to-use tests aimed at detecting non-normality, autocorrelation, and conditional heteroscedasticity in quantile residuals are formulated. It also turns out that these tests can be interpreted as Lagrange Multiplier or score tests so that they are asymptotically optimal against local alternatives. Chapter 3 extends the concept of quantile residuals to multivariate models. The framework of Chapter 2 is generalized and tests aimed at detecting non-normality, serial correlation, and conditional heteroscedasticity in multivariate quantile residuals are derived based on it. Score test interpretations are obtained for the serial correlation and conditional heteroscedasticity tests and in a rather restricted special case for the normality test. In Chapter 4 the tests are constructed using the empirical distribution function of quantile residuals. So-called Khmaladze s martingale transformation is applied in order to eliminate the uncertainty caused by parameter estimation. Various test statistics are considered so that critical bounds for histogram type plots as well as Quantile-Quantile and Probability-Probability type plots of quantile residuals are obtained. Chapters 2, 3, and 4 contain simulations and empirical examples which illustrate the finite sample size and power properties of the derived tests and also how the tests and related graphical tools based on residuals are applied in practice.

Double time window targeting technique: Real-time DMRG dynamics in the Pariser-Parr-Pople model

We present a generalized adaptive time-dependent density matrix renormalization-group (DMRG) scheme, called the double time window targeting (DTWT) technique, which gives accurate results with nominal computational resources, within reasonable computational time. This procedure originates from the amalgamation of the features of pace keeping DMRG algorithm, first proposed by Luo et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 91, 049701 (2003)] and the time-step targeting algorithm by Feiguin and White [Phys. Rev. B 72, 020404 (2005)]. Using the DTWT technique, we study the phenomena of spin-charge separation in conjugated polymers (materials for molecular electronics an spintronics), which have long-range electron-electron interactions and belong to the class of strongly correlated low-dimensional many-body systems. The issue of real-time dynamics within the Pariser-Parr-Pople (PPP) model which includes long-range electron correlations has not been addressed in the literature so far. The present study on PPP chains has revealed that, (i) long-range electron correlations enable both the charge and spin degree of freedom of the electron, to propagate faster in the PPP model compared to Hubbard model, (ii) for standard parameters of the PPP model as applied to conjugated polymers, the charge velocity is almost twice that of the spin velocity, and (iii) the simplistic interpretation of long-range correlations by merely renormalizing the U value of the Hubbard model fails to explain the dynamics of doped holes/electrons in the PPP model.

Interplay between multiple length and time scales in complex chemical systems

Processes in complex chemical systems, such as macromolecules, electrolytes, interfaces, micelles and enzymes, can span several orders of magnitude in length and time scales. The length and time scales of processes occurring over this broad time and space window are frequently coupled to give rise to the control necessary to ensure specificity and the uniqueness of the chemical phenomena. A combination of experimental, theoretical and computational techniques that can address a multiplicity of length and time scales is required in order to understand and predict structure and dynamics in such complex systems. This review highlights recent experimental developments that allow one to probe structure and dynamics at increasingly smaller length and time scales. The key theoretical approaches and computational strategies for integrating information across time-scales are discussed. The application of these ideas to understand phenomena in various areas, ranging from materials science to biology, is illustrated in the context of current developments in the areas of liquids and solvation, protein folding and aggregation and phase transitions, nucleation and self-assembly.

Preterm birth and risk factors for chronic disease : Helsinki Study of Very Low Birth Weight Adults

Background: The improved prognosis of early preterm birth has created a generation of surviving very low birth weight (< 1500 g, VLBW) infants whose health risks in adulthood are poorly known. Of every 1000 live-born infants in Finland, about 8 are born at VLBW. Variation in birth weight, even within the normal range, relates to considerable variation in the risk for several common adult disorders, including cardiovascular disease and osteoporosis. Small preterm infants frequently exhibit severe postnatal or prenatal growth retardation, or both. Much reason for concern thus exists, regarding adverse health effects in surviving small preterm infants later lives. We studied young adults, aiming at exploring whether VLBW birth and postnatal events after such a birth are associated with higher levels of risk factors for cardiovascular disease or osteoporosis. Subjects and Methods: A follow-up study for VLBW infants began in 1978; by the end of 1985, 335 VLBW survivors at Helsinki University Central Hospital participated in the follow-up. Their gestational ages ranged from 24 to 35 weeks, mean 29.2 and standard deviation 2.2 weeks. In 2004, we invited for a clinic visit 255 subjects, aged 18 to 27, who still lived in the greater Helsinki area. From the same birth hospitals, we also invited 314 term-born controls of similar age and sex. These two study groups underwent measurements of body size and composition, function of brachial arterial endothelium (flow-mediated dilatation, FMD) and carotid artery intima-media thickness (cIMT) by ultrasound. In addition, we measured plasma lipid concentrations, ambulatory blood pressure, fasting insulin, glucose tolerance and, by dual-energy x-ray densitometry, bone-mineral density. Results: 172 control and 166 VLBW participants underwent lipid measurements and a glucose tolerance test. VLBW adults fasting insulin (adjusted for body mass index) was 12.6% (95% confidence interval, 0.8 to 25.8) higher than that of the controls. The glucose and insulin concentrations 120 minutes after 75 g glucose ingestion showed similar differences (N=332) (I). VLBW adults had 3.9 mmHg (1.3 to 6.4) higher office systolic blood pressure, 3.5 mmHg (1.7 to 5.2) higher office diastolic blood pressure (I), and, when adjusted for body mass index and height, 3.1 mmHg (0.5 to 5.5) higher 24-hour mean systolic blood pressure (N=238) (II). VLBW birth was associated neither with HDL- or total cholesterol nor triglyceride concentrations (N=332) (I), nor was it associated with a low FMD or a high cIMT (N=160) (III). VLBW adults had 0.51-unit (0.28 to 0.75) lower lumbar spine Z scores and 0.56-unit (0.34 to 0.78) lower femoral neck Z scores (N=283). Adjustments for size attenuated the differences, but only partially (IV). Conclusions: These results imply that those born at VLBW, although mostly healthy as young adults, already bear several risk factors for chronic adult disease. The significantly higher fasting insulin level in adults with VLBW suggests increased insulin resistance. The higher blood pressure in young adults born at VLBW may indicate they later are at risk for hypertension, although their unaffected endothelial function may be evidence for some form of protection from cardiovascular disease. Lower bone mineral density around the age of peak bone mass may suggest increased risk for later osteoporotic fractures. Because cardiovascular disease and osteoporosis are frequent, and their prevention is relatively cheap and safe, one should focus on prevention now. When initiated early, preventive measures are likely to have sufficient time to be effective in preventing or postponing the onset of chronic disease.

A kinetic Ising model study of dynamical correlations in confined fluids: Emergence of both fast and slow time scales

Experiments and computer simulation studies have revealed existence of rich dynamics in the orientational relaxation of molecules in confined systems such as water in reverse micelles, cyclodextrin cavities, and nanotubes. Here we introduce a novel finite length one dimensional Ising model to investigate the propagation and the annihilation of dynamical correlations in finite systems and to understand the intriguing shortening of the orientational relaxation time that has been reported for small sized reverse micelles. In our finite sized model, the two spins at the two end cells are oriented in the opposite directions to mimic the effects of surface that in real system fixes water orientation in the opposite directions. This produces opposite polarizations to propagate inside from the surface and to produce bulklike condition at the center. This model can be solved analytically for short chains. For long chains, we solve the model numerically with Glauber spin flip dynamics (and also with Metropolis single-spin flip Monte Carlo algorithm). We show that model nicely reproduces many of the features observed in experiments. Due to the destructive interference among correlations that propagate from the surface to the core, one of the rotational relaxation time components decays faster than the bulk. In general, the relaxation of spins is nonexponential due to the interplay between various interactions. In the limit of strong coupling between the spins or in the limit of low temperature, the nature of relaxation of the spins undergoes a qualitative change with the emergence of a homogeneous dynamics where decay is predominantly exponential, again in agreement with experiments. (C) 2010 American Institute of Physics. doi: 10.1063/1.3474948]

Preterm birth and risk factors for chronic disease : Helsinki Study of Very Low Birth Weight Adults

Background: The improved prognosis of early preterm birth has created a generation of surviving very low birth weight (PIENEMPI KUIN 1500 g, VLBW) infants whose health risks in adulthood are poorly known. Of every 1000 live-born infants in Finland, about 8 are born at VLBW. Variation in birth weight, even within the normal range, relates to considerable variation in the risk for several common adult disorders, including cardiovascular disease and osteoporosis. Small preterm infants frequently exhibit severe postnatal or prenatal growth retardation, or both. Much reason for concern thus exists, regarding adverse health effects in surviving small preterm infants later lives. We studied young adults, aiming at exploring whether VLBW birth and postnatal events after such a birth are associated with higher levels of risk factors for cardiovascular disease or osteoporosis. Subjects and Methods: A follow-up study for VLBW infants began in 1978; by the end of 1985, 335 VLBW survivors at Helsinki University Central Hospital participated in the follow-up. Their gestational ages ranged from 24 to 35 weeks, mean 29.2 and standard deviation 2.2 weeks. In 2004, we invited for a clinic visit 255 subjects, aged 18 to 27, who still lived in the greater Helsinki area. From the same birth hospitals, we also invited 314 term-born controls of similar age and sex. These two study groups underwent measurements of body size and composition, function of brachial arterial endothelium (flow-mediated dilatation, FMD) and carotid artery intima-media thickness (cIMT) by ultrasound. In addition, we measured plasma lipid concentrations, ambulatory blood pressure, fasting insulin, glucose tolerance and, by dual-energy x-ray densitometry, bone-mineral density. Results: 172 control and 166 VLBW participants underwent lipid measurements and a glucose tolerance test. VLBW adults fasting insulin (adjusted for body mass index) was 12.6% (95% confidence interval, 0.8 to 25.8) higher than that of the controls. The glucose and insulin concentrations 120 minutes after 75 g glucose ingestion showed similar differences (N=332) (I). VLBW adults had 3.9 mmHg (1.3 to 6.4) higher office systolic blood pressure, 3.5 mmHg (1.7 to 5.2) higher office diastolic blood pressure (I), and, when adjusted for body mass index and height, 3.1 mmHg (0.5 to 5.5) higher 24-hour mean systolic blood pressure (N=238) (II). VLBW birth was associated neither with HDL- or total cholesterol nor triglyceride concentrations (N=332) (I), nor was it associated with a low FMD or a high cIMT (N=160) (III). VLBW adults had 0.51-unit (0.28 to 0.75) lower lumbar spine Z scores and 0.56-unit (0.34 to 0.78) lower femoral neck Z scores (N=283). Adjustments for size attenuated the differences, but only partially (IV). Conclusions: These results imply that those born at VLBW, although mostly healthy as young adults, already bear several risk factors for chronic adult disease. The significantly higher fasting insulin level in adults with VLBW suggests increased insulin resistance. The higher blood pressure in young adults born at VLBW may indicate they later are at risk for hypertension, although their unaffected endothelial function may be evidence for some form of protection from cardiovascular disease. Lower bone mineral density around the age of peak bone mass may suggest increased risk for later osteoporotic fractures. Because cardiovascular disease and osteoporosis are frequent, and their prevention is relatively cheap and safe, one should focus on prevention now. When initiated early, preventive measures are likely to have sufficient time to be effective in preventing or postponing the onset of chronic disease.

The hardness of approximating the boxicity, cubicity and threshold dimension of a graph

A k-dimensional box is the Cartesian product R-1 X R-2 X ... X R-k where each R-i is a closed interval on the real line. The boxicity of a graph G, denoted as box(G), is the minimum integer k such that G can be represented as the intersection graph of a collection of k-dimensional boxes. A unit cube in k-dimensional space or a k-cube is defined as the Cartesian product R-1 X R-2 X ... X R-k where each R-i is a closed interval oil the real line of the form a(i), a(i) + 1]. The cubicity of G, denoted as cub(G), is the minimum integer k such that G can be represented as the intersection graph of a collection of k-cubes. The threshold dimension of a graph G(V, E) is the smallest integer k such that E can be covered by k threshold spanning subgraphs of G. In this paper we will show that there exists no polynomial-time algorithm for approximating the threshold dimension of a graph on n vertices with a factor of O(n(0.5-epsilon)) for any epsilon > 0 unless NP = ZPP. From this result we will show that there exists no polynomial-time algorithm for approximating the boxicity and the cubicity of a graph on n vertices with factor O(n(0.5-epsilon)) for any epsilon > 0 unless NP = ZPP. In fact all these hardness results hold even for a highly structured class of graphs, namely the split graphs. We will also show that it is NP-complete to determine whether a given split graph has boxicity at most 3. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cubicity of Interval Graphs and the Claw Number

Let G(V, E) be a simple, undirected graph where V is the set of vertices and E is the set of edges. A b-dimensional cube is a Cartesian product l(1) x l(2) x ... x l(b), where each l(i) is a closed interval of unit length on the real line. The cub/city of G, denoted by cub(G), is the minimum positive integer b such that the vertices in G can be mapped to axis parallel b-dimensional cubes in such a way that two vertices are adjacent in G if and only if their assigned cubes intersect. An interval graph is a graph that can be represented as the intersection of intervals on the real line-i.e. the vertices of an interval graph can be mapped to intervals on the real line such that two vertices are adjacent if and only if their corresponding intervals overlap. Suppose S(m) denotes a star graph on m+1 nodes. We define claw number psi(G) of the graph to be the largest positive integer m such that S(m) is an induced subgraph of G. It can be easily shown that the cubicity of any graph is at least log(2) psi(G)]. In this article, we show that for an interval graph G log(2) psi(G)-]<= cub(G)<=log(2) psi(G)]+2. It is not clear whether the upper bound of log(2) psi(G)]+2 is tight: till now we are unable to find any interval graph with cub(G)> (log(2)psi(G)]. We also show that for an interval graph G, cub(G) <= log(2) alpha], where alpha is the independence number of G. Therefore, in the special case of psi(G)=alpha, cub(G) is exactly log(2) alpha(2)]. The concept of cubicity can be generalized by considering boxes instead of cubes. A b-dimensional box is a Cartesian product l(1) x l(2) x ... x l(b), where each I is a closed interval on the real line. The boxicity of a graph, denoted box(G), is the minimum k such that G is the intersection graph of k-dimensional boxes. It is clear that box(G)<= cub(G). From the above result, it follows that for any graph G, cub(G) <= box(G)log(2) alpha]. (C) 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Graph Theory 65: 323-333, 2010

Real-time Computer Simulation of Three Dimensional Elastostatics using the Finite Point Method

Real-time simulation of deformable solids is essential for some applications such as biological organ simulations for surgical simulators. In this work, deformable solids are approximated to be linear elastic, and an easy and straight forward numerical technique, the Finite Point Method (FPM), is used to model three dimensional linear elastostatics. Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) is used to accelerate computations. Results show that the Finite Point Method, together with GPU, can compute three dimensional linear elastostatic responses of solids at rates suitable for real-time graphics, for solids represented by reasonable number of points.

Network Error Correction for Unit-Delay, Memory-Free Networks Using Convolutional Codes

A single source network is said to be memory-free if all of the internal nodes (those except the source and the sinks) do not employ memory but merely send linear combinations of the symbols received at their incoming edges on their outgoing edges. In this work, we introduce network-error correction for single source, acyclic, unit-delay, memory-free networks with coherent network coding for multicast. A convolutional code is designed at the source based on the network code in order to correct network- errors that correspond to any of a given set of error patterns, as long as consecutive errors are separated by a certain interval which depends on the convolutional code selected. Bounds on this interval and the field size required for constructing the convolutional code with the required free distance are also obtained. We illustrate the performance of convolutional network error correcting codes (CNECCs) designed for the unit-delay networks using simulations of CNECCs on an example network under a probabilistic error model.

Comparison of the ultrafast to slow time scale dynamics of three liquid crystals in the isotropic phase

The dynamics of three liquid crystals, 4'(pentyloxy)-4-biphenylcarbonitrile (5-OCB), 4'-pentyl-4-biphenylcarbonitrile (5-CB), and 1-isothiocyanato-(4-propylcyclohexyl)benzene (3-CHBT), are investigated from very short time (similar to1 ps) to very long time (>100 ns) as a function of temperature using optical heterodyne detected optical Kerr effect experiments. For all three liquid crystals, the data decay exponentially only on the longest time scale (> several ns). The temperature dependence of the long time scale exponential decays is described well by the Landau-de Gennes theory of the randomization of pseudonematic domains that exist in the isotropic phase of liquid crystals near the isotropic to nematic phase transition. At short time, all three liquid crystals display power law decays. Over the full range of times, the data for all three liquid crystals are fit with a model function that contains a short time power law. The power law exponents for the three liquid crystals range between 0.63 and 0.76, and the power law exponents are temperature independent over a wide range of temperatures. Integration of the fitting function gives the empirical polarizability-polarizability (orientational) correlation function. A preliminary theoretical treatment of collective motions yields a correlation function that indicates that the data can decay as a power law at short times. The power law component of the decay reflects intradomain dynamics. (C) 2002 American Institute of Physics.

Conflict-Tolerant Real-Time Specifications in Metric Temporal Logic

A framework based on the notion of "conflict-tolerance" was proposed in as a compositional methodology for developing and reasoning about systems that comprise multiple independent controllers. A central notion in this framework is that of a "conflict-tolerant" specification for a controller. In this work we propose a way of defining conflict-tolerant real-time specifications in Metric Interval Temporal Logic (MITL). We call our logic CT-MITL for Conflict-Tolerant MITL. We then give a clock optimal "delay-then-extend" construction for building a timed transition system for monitoring past-MITL formulas. We show how this monitoring transition system can be used to solve the associated verification and synthesis problems for CT-MITL.

Effect of nortriptyline and paroxetine on measures of chaos of heart rate time series in patients with panic disorder

Tricyclic antidepressants have notable cardiac side effects, and this issue has become important due to the recent reports of increased cardiovascular mortality in patients with depression and anxiety. Several previous studies indicate that serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SRIs) do not appear to have such adverse effects. Apart from the effects of these drugs on routine 12-lead ECG, the effects on beat-to-beat heart rate (HR) and QT interval time series provide more information on the side effects related to cardiac autonomic function. In this study, we evaluated the effects of two antidepressants, nortriptyline (n = 13), a tricyclic, and paroxetine (n = 16), an SRI inhibitor, on HR variability in patients with panic disorder, using a measure of chaos, the largest Lyapunov exponent (LLE) using pre- and posttreatment HR time series. Our results show that nortriptyline is associated with a decrease in LLE of high frequency (HF: 0.15-0.5 Hz) filtered series, which is most likely due to its anticholinergic effect, while paroxetine had no such effect. Paroxetine significantly decreased sympathovagal ratios as measured by a decrease in LLE of LF/HF. These results suggest that paroxetine appears to be safer in regards to cardiovascular effects compared to nortriptyline in this group of patients. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Nonlinear measures of QT interval series: novel indices of cardiac repolarization lability: MEDqthr and LLEqthr

In this study, we investigated nonlinear measures of chaos of QT interval time series in 28 normal control subjects, 36 patients with panic disorder and 18 patients with major depression in supine and standing postures. We obtained the minimum embedding dimension (MED) and the largest Lyapunov exponent (LLE) of instantaneous heart rate (HR) and QT interval series. MED quantifies the system's complexity and LLE predictability. There was a significantly lower MED and a significantly increased LLE of QT interval time series in patients. Most importantly, nonlinear indices of QT/HR time series, MEDqthr (MED of QT/HR) and LLEqthr (LLE of QT/HR), were highly significantly different between controls and both patient groups in either posture. Results remained the same even after adjusting for age. The increased LLE of QT interval time, series in patients with anxiety and depression is in line with our previous findings of higher QTvi (QT variability index, a log ratio of QT variability corrected for mean QT squared divided by heart rate variability corrected for mean heart rate squared) in these patients, using linear techniques. Increased LLEqthr (LLE of QT/HR) may be a more sensitive tool to study cardiac repolarization and a valuable addition to the time domain measures such as QTvi. This is especially important in light of the finding that LLEqthr correlated poorly and nonsignificantly with QTvi. These findings suggest an increase in relative cardiac sympathetic activity and a decrease in certain aspects of cardiac vagal function in patients with anxiety as well as depression. The lack of correlation between QTvi and LLEqthr suggests that this nonlinear index is a valuable addition to the linear measures. These findings may also help to explain the higher incidence of cardiovascular mortality in patients with anxiety and depressive disorders. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.