Integration of spatial and temporal models to predict extreme water table depths

The objective of this work was to evaluate extreme water table depths in a watershed, using methods for geographical spatial data analysis. Groundwater spatio-temporal dynamics was evaluated in an outcrop of the Guarani Aquifer System. Water table depths were estimated from monitoring of water levels in 23 piezometers and time series modeling available from April 2004 to April 2011. For generation of spatial scenarios, geostatistical techniques were used, which incorporated into the prediction ancillary information related to the geomorphological patterns of the watershed, using a digital elevation model. This procedure improved estimates, due to the high correlation between water levels and elevation, and aggregated physical sense to predictions. The scenarios showed differences regarding the extreme levels - too deep or too shallow ones - and can subsidize water planning, efficient water use, and sustainable water management in the watershed.

A Systematic Mapping on the Role-Permission Relationship in Role Based Access Control Models

Access control is a key component of security in any computer system. In the last two decades, the research on Role Basead Access Control Models was intense. One of the most important components of a Role Based Model is the Role-Permission Relationship. In this paper, the technique of systematic mapping is used to identify, extract and analyze many approaches applied to establish the Role-Permission Relationship. The main goal of this mapping is pointing directions of significant research in the area of Role Based Access Control Models.

Improved low-voltage-ride-through capability of fixed-speed wind turbines using decentralised control of STATCOM with energy storage system

The design and implementation of a new control scheme for reactive power compensation, voltage regulation and transient stability enhancement for wind turbines equipped with fixed-speed induction generators (IGs) in large interconnected power systems is presented in this study. The low-voltage-ride-through (LVRT) capability is provided by extending the range of the operation of the controlled system to include typical post-fault conditions. A systematic procedure is proposed to design decentralised multi-variable controllers for large interconnected power systems using the linear quadratic (LQ) output-feedback control design method and the controller design procedure is formulated as an optimisation problem involving rank-constrained linear matrix inequality (LMI). In this study, it is shown that a static synchronous compensator (STATCOM) with energy storage system (ESS), controlled via robust control technique, is an effective device for improving the LVRT capability of fixed-speed wind turbines.

Use of recent geoid models to estimate mean dynamic topography and geostrophic currents in South Atlantic and Brazil Malvinas confluence

The use of geoid models to estimate the Mean Dynamic Topography was stimulated with the launching of the GRACE satellite system, since its models present unprecedented precision and space-time resolution. In the present study, besides the DNSC08 mean sea level model, the following geoid models were used with the objective of computing the MDTs: EGM96, EIGEN-5C and EGM2008. In the method adopted, geostrophic currents for the South Atlantic were computed based on the MDTs. In this study it was found that the degree and order of the geoid models affect the determination of TDM and currents directly. The presence of noise in the MDT requires the use of efficient filtering techniques, such as the filter based on Singular Spectrum Analysis, which presents significant advantages in relation to conventional filters. Geostrophic currents resulting from geoid models were compared with the HYCOM hydrodynamic numerical model. In conclusion, results show that MDTs and respective geostrophic currents calculated with EIGEN-5C and EGM2008 models are similar to the results of the numerical model, especially regarding the main large scale features such as boundary currents and the retroflection at the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence.

Description of atmospheric conditions at the Pierre Auger Observatory using the Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS)

Atmospheric conditions at the site of a cosmic ray observatory must be known for reconstructing observed extensive air showers. The Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) is a global atmospheric model predicated on meteorological measurements and numerical weather predictions. GDAS provides altitude-dependent profiles of the main state variables of the atmosphere like temperature, pressure, and humidity. The original data and their application to the air shower reconstruction of the Pierre Auger Observatory are described. By comparisons with radiosonde and weather station measurements obtained on-site in Malargue and averaged monthly models, the utility of the GDAS data is shown. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Optimization of Large-Scale Hydrothermal System Operation

This paper presents the development of a mathematical model to optimize the management and operation of the Brazilian hydrothermal system. The system consists of a large set of individual hydropower plants and a set of aggregated thermal plants. The energy generated in the system is interconnected by a transmission network so it can be transmitted to centers of consumption throughout the country. The optimization model offered is capable of handling different types of constraints, such as interbasin water transfers, water supply for various purposes, and environmental requirements. Its overall objective is to produce energy to meet the country's demand at a minimum cost. Called HIDROTERM, the model integrates a database with basic hydrological and technical information to run the optimization model, and provides an interface to manage the input and output data. The optimization model uses the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) package and can invoke different linear as well as nonlinear programming solvers. The optimization model was applied to the Brazilian hydrothermal system, one of the largest in the world. The system is divided into four subsystems with 127 active hydropower plants. Preliminary results under different scenarios of inflow, demand, and installed capacity demonstrate the efficiency and utility of the model. From this and other case studies in Brazil, the results indicate that the methodology developed is suitable to different applications, such as planning operation, capacity expansion, and operational rule studies, and trade-off analysis among multiple water users. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000149. (C) 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Covariates of high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) infections are distinct for incident CIN1, CIN2 and CIN3 as disclosed by competing-risks regression models

Background: In addition to the oncogenic human papillomavirus (HPV), several cofactors are needed in cervical carcinogenesis, but whether the HPV covariates associated with incident i) CIN1 are different from those of incident ii) CIN2 and iii) CIN3 needs further assessment. Objectives: To gain further insights into the true biological differences between CIN1, CIN2 and CIN3, we assessed HPV covariates associated with incident CIN1, CIN2, and CIN3. Study Design and Methods: HPV covariates associated with progression to CIN1, CIN2 and CIN3 were analysed in the combined cohort of the NIS (n = 3,187) and LAMS study (n = 12,114), using competing-risks regression models (in panel data) for baseline HR-HPV-positive women (n = 1,105), who represent a sub-cohort of all 1,865 women prospectively followed-up in these two studies. Results: Altogether, 90 (4.8%), 39 (2.1%) and 14 (1.4%) cases progressed to CIN1, CIN2, and CIN3, respectively. Among these baseline HR-HPV-positive women, the risk profiles of incident GIN I, CIN2 and CIN3 were unique in that completely different HPV covariates were associated with progression to CIN1, CIN2 and CIN3, irrespective which categories (non-progression, CIN1, CIN2, CIN3 or all) were used as competing-risks events in univariate and multivariate models. Conclusions: These data confirm our previous analysis based on multinomial regression models implicating that distinct covariates of HR-HPV are associated with progression to CIN1, CIN2 and CIN3. This emphasises true biological differences between the three grades of GIN, which revisits the concept of combining CIN2 with CIN3 or with CIN1 in histological classification or used as a common end-point, e.g., in HPV vaccine trials.

Lipopolysaccharide-Induced Sickness Behaviour Evaluated in Different Models of Anxiety and Innate Fear in Rats

The fact that there is a complex and bidirectional communication between the immune and nervous systems has been well demonstrated. Lipopolysaccharide (LPS), a component of gram-negative bacteria, is widely used to systematically stimulate the immune system and generate profound physiological and behavioural changes, also known as sickness behaviour (e.g. anhedonia, lethargy, loss of appetite, anxiety, sleepiness). Different ethological tools have been used to analyse the behavioural modifications induced by LPS; however, many researchers analysed only individual tests, a single LPS dose or a unique ethological parameter, thus leading to disagreements regarding the data. In the present study, we investigated the effects of different doses of LPS (10, 50, 200 and 500 mu g/kg, i.p.) in young male Wistar rats (weighing 180200 g; 89 weeks old) on the ethological and spatiotemporal parameters of the elevated plus maze, light-dark box, elevated T maze, open-field tests and emission of ultrasound vocalizations. There was a dose-dependent increase in anxiety-like behaviours caused by LPS, forming an inverted U curve peaked at LPS 200 mu g/kg dose. However, these anxiety-like behaviours were detected only by complementary ethological analysis (stretching, grooming, immobility responses and alarm calls), and these reactions seem to be a very sensitive tool in assessing the first signs of sickness behaviour. In summary, the present work clearly showed that there are resting and alertness reactions induced by opposite neuroimmune mechanisms (neuroimmune bias) that could lead to anxiety behaviours, suggesting that misunderstanding data could occur when only few ethological variables or single doses of LPS are analysed. Finally, it is hypothesized that this bias is an evolutionary tool that increases animals security while the body recovers from a systemic infection.

Stigma and higher rates of psychiatric re-hospitalization: Sao Paulo public mental health system

Objective: The aim of this study was to assess re-hospitalization rates of individuals with psychosis and bipolar disorder and to study determinants of readmission. Methods: Prospective observational study, conducted in Sao Paulo, Brazil. One hundred-sixty-nine individuals with bipolar and psychotic disorder in need of hospitalization in the public mental health system were followed for 12 months after discharge. Their families were contacted by telephone and interviews were conducted at 1, 2, 6 and 12 months post-discharge to evaluate readmission rates and factors related. Results: One-year re-hospitalization rate was of 42.6%. Physical restraint during hospital stay was a risk factor (OR = 5.4-10.5) for readmission in most models. Not attending consultations after discharge was related to the 12-month point readmission (OR = 8.5, 95% CI 2.3-31.2) and to the survival model (OR = 3.2, 95% CI 1.5-7.2). Number of previous admissions was a risk factor for the survival model (OR = 6.6-11.9). Family's agreement with permanent hospitalization of individuals with mental illness was the predictor associated to readmission in all models (OR = 3.5-10.9) and resulted in shorter survival time to readmission; those readmitted were stereotyped as dangerous and unhealthy. Conclusions: Family's stigma towards mental illness might contribute to the increase in readmission rates of their relatives with psychiatric disorders. More studies should be conducted to depict mechanisms by which stigma increases re-hospitalization rates.

Reference model for implementing an MRP system in a highly diverse component and seasonal lean production environment

Companies are currently choosing to integrate logics and systems to achieve better solutions. These combinations also include companies striving to join the logic of material requirement planning (MRP) system with the systems of lean production. The purpose of this article was to design an MRP as part of the implementation of an enterprise resource planning (ERP) in a company that produces agricultural implements, which has used the lean production system since 1998. This proposal is based on the innovation theory, theory networks, lean production systems, ERP systems and the hybrid production systems, which use both components and MRP systems, as concepts of lean production systems. The analytical approach of innovation networks enables verification of the links and relationships among the companies and departments of the same corporation. The analysis begins with the MRP implementation project carried out in a Brazilian metallurgical company and follows through the operationalisation of the MRP project, until its production stabilisation. The main point is that the MRP system should help the company's operations with regard to its effective agility to respond in time to demand fluctuations, facilitating the creation process and controlling the branch offices in other countries that use components produced in the matrix, hence ensuring more accurate estimates of stockpiles. Consequently, it presents the enterprise knowledge development organisational modelling methodology in order to represent further models (goals, actors and resources, business rules, business process and concepts) that should be included in this MRP implementation process for the new configuration of the production system.

Co-metabolic models of Streptococcus thermophilus in co-culture with Lactobacillus bulgaricus or Lactobacillus acidophilus

To shed light on the interactions occurring in fermented milks when using co-cultures of Streptococcus thermophilus with Lactobacillus bulgaricus (StLb) or Lactobacillus acidophilus (StLa), a new co-metabolic model was proposed and checked either in the presence of Inulin as a prebiotic or not. For this purpose, the experimental data of concentrations of substrates and fermented products were utilized in balances of carbon, reduction degree and ATP. S. thermophilus exhibited always quicker growth compared to the other two microorganisms, while the percentage of lactose fermented to lactic acid, that of galactose metabolized, and the levels of diacetyl and acetoin formed strongly depended on the type of co-culture and the presence of inulin. The StLb co-culture led to higher acetoin and lower diacetyl levels compared to StLa, probably because of more reducing conditions or limited acetoin dehydrogenation. Inulin addition to StLa suppressed acetoin accumulation and hindered that of diacetyl, suggesting catabolite repression of alpha-acetolactate synthase expression in S. thermophilus. Both co-cultures showed the highest ATP requirements for biomass growth and maintenance at the beginning of fermentation, consistently with the high energy demand of enzyme induction during lag phase. Inulin reduced these requirements making biomass synthesis and maintenance less energy-consuming. Only a fraction of galactose was released from lactose, consistently with the galactose-positive phenotype of most dairy strains. The galactose fraction metabolized without inulin was about twice that in its presence, which suggests inhibition of the galactose transport system of S. thermophilus by fructose released from partial inulin hydrolysis. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Energy and system-size dependence of two- and four-particle nu(2) measurements in heavy-ion collisions at root S-NN=62.4 and 200 GeV and their implications on flow fluctuations and nonflow

We present STAR measurements of azimuthal anisotropy by means of the two- and four-particle cumulants nu(2) (nu(2){2} and nu(2){4}) for Au + Au and Cu + Cu collisions at center-of-mass energies root S-NN = 62.4 and 200 GeV. The difference between nu(2){2}(2) and nu(2){4}(2) is related to nu(2) fluctuations (sigma(nu 2)) and nonflow (delta(2)). We present an upper limit to sigma(nu 2)/nu 2. Following the assumption that eccentricity fluctuations sigma(epsilon) dominate nu(2) fluctuations nu(2)/sigma nu(2) approximate to epsilon/sigma epsilon we deduce the nonflow implied for several models of eccentricity fluctuations that would be required for consistency with nu(2){2} and nu(2){4}. We also present results on the ratio of nu(2) to eccentricity.

Influence of the initial condition in equilibrium last-passage percolation models

In this paper we consider an equilibrium last-passage percolation model on an environment given by a compound two-dimensional Poisson process. We prove an L-2-formula relating the initial measure with the last-passage percolation time. This formula turns out to be a useful tool to analyze the fluctuations of the last-passage times along non-characteristic directions.

The neonatal immune system: immunomodulation of infections in early life

The innate and adaptive immune responses in neonates are usually functionally impaired when compared with their adult counterparts. The qualitative and quantitative differences in the neonatal immune response put them at risk for the development of bacterial and viral infections, resulting in increased mortality. Newborns often exhibit decreased production of Th1-polarizing cytokines and are biased toward Th2-type responses. Studies aimed at understanding the plasticity of the immune response in the neonatal and early infant periods or that seek to improve neonatal innate immune function with adjuvants or special formulations are crucial for preventing the infectious disease burden in this susceptible group. Considerable studies focused on identifying potential immunomodulatory therapies have been performed in murine models. This article highlights the strategies used in the emerging field of immunomodulation in bacterial and viral pathogens, focusing on preclinical studies carried out in animal models with particular emphasis on neonatal-specific immune deficits.

Comparison of two experimental models of pulmonary hypertension

Objective: To compare two models of pulmonary hypertension (monocrotaline and monocrotaline+pneumonectomy) regarding hemodynamic severity, structure of pulmonary arteries, inflammatory markers (IL-1 and PDGF), and 45-day survival. Methods: We used 80 Sprague-Dawley rats in two study protocols: structural analysis; and survival analysis. The rats were divided into four groups: control; monocrotaline (M), pneumonectomy (P), and monocrotaline+pneumonectomy (M+P). In the structural analysis protocol, 40 rats (10/group) were catheterized for the determination of hemodynamic variables, followed by euthanasia for the removal of heart and lung tissue. The right ventricle (RV) was dissected from the interventricular septum (IS), and the ratio between RV weight and the weight of the left ventricle (LV) plus IS (RV/LV+IS) was taken as the index of RV hypertrophy. In lung tissues, we performed histological analyses, as well as using ELISA to determine IL-1 and PDGF levels. In the survival protocol, 40 animals (10/group) were followed for 45 days. Results: The M and M+P rats developed pulmonary hypertension, whereas the control and P rats did not. The RV/LV+IS ratio was significantly higher in M+P rats than in M rats, as well as being significantly higher in M and M+P rats than in control and P rats. There were no significant differences between the M and M+P rats regarding the area of the medial layer of the pulmonary arteries; IL-1 and PDGF levels; or survival. Conclusions: On the basis of our results, we cannot conclude that the monocrotaline+pneumonectomy model is superior to the monocrotaline model.