Historical perspective of the Psychology of motivation

The psychology of motivation has a long tradition and history in psychology. In fact, we consider that, to a certain extent, understanding the history of the psychology of motivation is understanding great part of which has been psychology itself, since the main target of psychology was, and is, to try to explain behaviour, and the aim of psychology of motivation is to find out the causes of behaviour. In its long passage to the present time, there have been three perspectives that have monopolized most of the investigation: the biological, the behavioural and the cognitive. They are not excluding. Each one of them has been predominant in certain stages, although the same attention was paid to the other two. Nowadays, the biological and cognitive perspectives are those that receive greater attention from the investigators. The historical direction in the study of the psychology of motivation represents an important solution to know how the events that have given rise to the present consideration about the psychology of motivation were forged. To know the past helps us to understand the present, at the same time it allows us to hypothesise with great probability of success which will be the future in the study object.

Accesos vasculares para hemodiálisis, cuál es el más costo efectivo?

Marco conceptual: La enfermedad renal crónica es un serio problema de salud pública en nuestro país por la gran cantidad de recursos económicos que requiere su atención. La hemodiálisis es el tratamiento más usado en nuestro medio; el acceso vascular y sus complicaciones derivadas son el principal aspecto que incrementa los costos de atención en éstos pacientes. Materiales y métodos: Se realizó un estudio económico de los accesos vasculares en pacientes incidentes de hemodiálisis en el año 2012 en la agencia RTS-Fundación Cardio Infantil. Se estableció el costo de creación y mantenimiento del acceso con catéter central, fístula arteriovenosa nativa, fístula arteriovenosa con injerto; y el costo de atención de las complicaciones para cada acceso. Se determinó la probabilidad de ocurrencia de complicaciones. Mediante un árbol de decisiones se trazó el comportamiento de cada acceso en un período de 5 años. Se establecieron los años de vida ajustados por calidad (QALY) en cada acceso y el costo para cada uno de éstos QALY. Resultados: de 36 pacientes incidentes de hemodiálisis en 2012 el 100% inició con catéter central, 16 pacientes cambiaron a fístula arteriovenosa nativa, 1 a fístula arteriovenosa con injerto que posteriormente pasó a CAPD, 15 continuaron su acceso con catéter y 4 pacientes fallecieron. En 5 años se obtuvieron 2,36 QALY para los pacientes con catéter central que costarían $ 24.813.036,39/QALY y 2,535 QALY para los pacientes con fístula nativa que costarían $ 6.634.870,64/QALY. Conclusiones: el presente estudio muestra que el acceso vascular mediante fístula arteriovenosa nativa es el más costo-efectivo que mediante catéter

Urban epidemiology of labor informality in Bogotá: A neighborhood interactions approach

Usando datos georreferenciados sobre mercado laboral para la ciudad de Bogotá, se desarrolla una estrategia empírica para identificar el efecto de la tasa de informalidad en el vecindario sobre la probabilidad individual de conseguir un trabajo informal. Se encuentra evidencia de la existencia de tales efectos del vecindario. Estos efectos funcionan de forma distinta para informalidad de trabajadores asalariados o independientes.

School management and sexual behavior of teenagers

This paper asks whether school based management may help reducing risky sexual behavior of teenagers. For this purpose we use student level data from Bogot´a to identify students from Concession School (CS), who are enrolled in public education system with a more school management autonomy at school level, and to compare them with those students at the traditional public education system. We use propensity score matching methods to have a comparable sample between pupils at CS and traditional schools. Our results show that on average the behavior of students from CS do not have a sexual behavior that differs from those in traditional public schools except for boys in CS who have a lower probability of being sexual active. However, there are important differences when heterogeneity is considered. For example we find that CS where girls per boys ratio is higher have lower teenage pregnancy rates than public schools with also high girls per boys ratios. We also find that teachers’ human capital, teacher-pupil ratio or whether school offers sexual education are also related to statistically significant differences between CS and traditional public schools.

Small-area variation in health care affecting the choice of cesarean delivery: the case of a Colombian health insurer

In the midst of health care reform, Colombia has succeeded in increasing health insurance coverage and the quality of health care. In spite of this, efficiency continues to be a matter of concern, and small-area variations in health care are one of the plausible causes of such inefficiencies. In order to understand this issue, we use individual data of all births from a Contributory-Regimen insurer in Colombia. We perform two different specifications of a multilevel logistic regression model. Our results reveal that hospitals account for 20% of variation on the probability of performing cesarean sections. Geographic area only explains 1/3 of the variance attributable to the hospital. Furthermore, some variables from both demand and supply sides are found to be also relevant on the probability of undergoing cesarean sections. This paper contributes to previous research by using a hierarchical model and by defining hospitals as cluster. Moreover, we also include clinical and supply induced demand variables.

The impact of a permanent Income shock on the situation of women in the household: the case of a pension reform in Argentina

Transfers to women may affect their bargaining power within the household and consequently their well-being. We analyze the effects of the 2004/2005 pension reform in Argentina, that resulted in an unexpected and substantial increase in permanent income for around 1.8 million women, on outcomes arguably related to women’s bargaining power within the household. We estimate the effects of the reform in the probability of divorce/separation, the distribution of household chores, and the probability of women being the head of the household, using a Difference-in-Differences approach. Our results show that despite the low divorce probability among seniors, transfers to senior women have substantial effects on their situation in the household. More specifically, we find that the reform had statistically significant effects on the probability of divorce/separation increasing it by 1.8 − 2.7 percentage points implying an increase of around 18 − 19% on the divorce/separation rate of 60 − 65 year old women. Moreover, the probability of being the head of the household also increased by 2.8−3.3 percentage points representing an increase of 7−19% in the probability amongst women of 60 − 65 years of age. In the case of married women, the probability of being the head of the household increased by 1.3 − 1.5 percentage points, which represents an increase of 20 − 22%. Results show that the distribution of household chores within the couples was also affected by the reform. More precisely, the probability that the wife is the only person in charge of the housework decreased by 5 percentage points, an 11% decrease. The participation of husbands in housework, however, did not change significantly.

Use of informal mobile telephony in low income households in Colombia

El acceso a la telefonía móvil en Colombia evidencia ciertas particularidades con respecto a otros países. En Colombia surgió una nueva alternativa de comunicación que consistía en la venta de minutos de celular en las calles y en pequeños negocios durante los primeros años de ésta década. En este documento se analizan las principales características de quienes usan esta modalidad de comunicación con base en una encuesta dirigida a usuarios y no usuarios de bajos ingresos. Se usa un modelo probabilístico para explicar las características de las personas que lo usan y se encuentra que las personas que están en la modalidad de contrato prepago y que viven en ciudades pequeñas tienen una mayor probabilidad de usar esta alternativa de comunicación. De otro lado se encuentra que quienes están con el operador dominante tienden a usar este servicio también de una forma más notoria. Estos resultados parecen indicar que los diferenciales de precios entre las llamadas off-net y on-net así como entre prepago y postpago son los que alimentaron el surgimiento de esta actividad

Body mass index as a standard of living measure: a different interpretation for the case of Colombia

We analyze the Body Mass Index (BMI) in a distinct way of its traditional use and it lets us use it as a proxy of standard of living for the case of Colombia. Our approach is focused on studying how far the people are from the normal range and not on the score of each one and this lets us to treat equally extreme cases as severe thinness and obesity. We use a probabilistic model (Ordered Probit) that evaluates the probability of being within the normal range or another level. We found that socioeconomic variables have a significant effect on the dependent variable and that there are no linear effects. Besides, people with difficulties for walking and adults have less probability of having a normal BMI.

Determinants of demand for antenatal care in Colombia

Even though antenatal care is universally regarded as important, determinants of demand for antenatal care have not been widely studied. Evidence concerning which and how socioeconomic conditions influence whether a pregnant woman attends or not at least one antenatal consultation or how these factors affect the absences to antenatal consultations is very limited. In order to generate this evidence, a two-stage analysis was performed with data from the Demographic and Health Survey carried out by Profamilia in Colombia during 2005. The first stage was run as a logit model showing the marginal effects on the probability of attending the first visit and an ordinary least squares model was performed for the second stage. It was found that mothers living in the pacific region as well as young mothers seem to have a lower probability of attending the first visit but these factors are not related to the number of absences to antenatal consultation once the first visit has been achieved. The effect of health insurance was surprising because of the differing effects that the health insurers showed. Some familiar and personal conditions such as willingness to have the last children and number of previous children, demonstrated to be important in the determination of demand. The effect of mother’s educational attainment was proved as important whereas the father’s educational achievement was not. This paper provides some elements for policy making in order to increase the demand inducement of antenatal care, as well as stimulating research on demand for specific issues on health.

An Empirical Examination of the Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment: A Firm-Level Analysis for the Colombian Economy

We use a large firm level data set to investigate the determinants of foreign direct investment(FDI) in Colombia. We estimate econometric models for the determinants of the probabilitythat a firm receives FDI, as well as for the factors that help to explain the foreign share in afirm’s capital. The results show that firms listed on the stock market, involved in foreign tradeactivities, and operating in sectors with greater capital intensity are more likely to be recipientsof FDI. Also, the probability of a firm receiving FDI is directly related to its size.

Reintroduction of the Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra) in Muga and Fluvià basins (north-eastern Spain): viability, development, monitoring and trends of the new population

Aquesta tesi es basa en el programa de reintroducció de la llúdriga eurasiàtica (Lutra lutra) a les conques dels rius Muga i Fluvià (Catalunya) durant la segona meitat dels 1990s. Els objectius de la tesi foren demostrar la viabilitat de la reintroducció, demostrar l'èxit de la mateixa, estudiar aspectes ecològics i etològics de l'espècie, aprofitant l'oportunitat única de gaudir d'una població "de disseny" i determinar les probabilitats de supervivència de la població a llarg termini. La reintroducció de la llúdriga a les conques dels rius Muga i Fluvià va reeixir, doncs l'àrea geogràfica ocupada efectivament es va incrementar fins a un 64% d'estacions positives a l'hivern 2001-02. La troballa de tres exemplars adults nascuts a l'àrea de reintroducció és una altra prova que valida l'èxit del programa. La densitat d'exemplars calculada a través dels censos visuals ha resultat baixa (0.04-0.11 llúdrigues/km), però s'aproxima al que hom pot esperar en els primers estadis d'una població reintroduïda, encara poc nombrosa però distribuïda en una gran àrea. La mortalitat post-alliberament va ser del 22% un any després de l'alliberament, similar o inferior a la d'altres programes de reintroducció de llúdrigues reeixits. La mortalitat va ser deguda principalment a atropellaments (56%). El patró d'activitat de les llúdrigues reintroduïdes va esdevenir principalment nocturn i crepuscular, amb una escassa activitat diürna. Les seves àrees vitals van ser del mateix ordre (34,2 km) que les calculades en d'altres estudis realitzats a Europa. La longitud mitjana de riu recorreguda per una llúdriga durant 24 hores va ser de 4,2 km per les femelles i 7,6 km pels mascles. Durant el període de radioseguiment dues femelles van criar i els seus moviments van poder ser estudiats amb deteniment. La resposta de la nova població de llúdrigues a les fluctuacions estacionals en la disponibilitat d'aigua, habitual a les regions mediterrànies, va consistir en la concentració en una àrea menor durant el període de sequera estival, a causa de l'increment de trams secs, inhabitables per la llúdriga per la manca d'aliment, fet que va provocar expansions i contraccions periòdiques en l'àrea de distribució. La persistència a llarg termini de la població reintroduïda va ser estudiada mitjançant una Anàlisi de Viabilitat Poblacional (PVA). El resultat va ser un baix risc d'extinció de la població en els propers 100 anys i la majoria dels escenaris simulats (65%) van assolir el criteri d'un mínim de 90% de probabilitat de supervivència. Del model poblacional construït es dedueix que un punt clau per assegurar la viabilitat de la població reintroduïda és la reducció de la mortalitat accidental. A l'àrea d'estudi, els atropellaments causen més del 50% de la mortalitat i aquesta pot ser reduïda mitjançant la construcció de passos de fauna, el tancament lateral d'alguns trams de carretera perillosos i el control de la velocitat en algunes vies. El projecte de reintroducció ha posat a punt un protocol per a la captura, maneig i alliberament de llúdrigues salvatges, que pot contenir informació útil per a programes similars. També ha suposat una oportunitat única d'estudiar una població dissenyada artificialment i poder comparar diversos mètodes per estimar la distribució i la densitat de poblacions de llúdrigues. Per últim, la reintroducció portada a terme a les conques dels rius Muga i Fluvià ha aconseguit crear una nova població de llúdrigues, que persisteix en el temps, que es reprodueix regularment i que es dispersa progressivament, fins i tot a noves conques fluvials.

Conceptualización del riesgo en los mercados financieros (Tema Central)

El riesgo está inmerso en todas las actividades humanas y es entendido como la probabilidad de ocurrencia de un evento que deviene en un perjuicio. Por ende al hablar de riesgo en materia financiera, nos referimos a una eventual pérdida de dinero que signifique, de manera directa, una afectación al sistema financiero o a una de las instituciones que lo conforman. Con lo antedicho, el presente trabajo consiste en una recopilación de información de algunos de los riegos inmersos en los mercados financieros. Con ello, la exposición de riesgos como los de mercado, operacional, de liquidez, legal, reputacional, entre otros, resulta fundamental. Finalmente hemos optado por presentar, en breves rasgos, algunos de los riesgos de crédito y métodos válidos para su adecuada valoración.

A Field Evaluation of the Time-of-Detection Method to Estimate Population Size and Density for Aural Avian Point Counts

The time-of-detection method for aural avian point counts is a new method of estimating abundance, allowing for uncertain probability of detection. The method has been specifically designed to allow for variation in singing rates of birds. It involves dividing the time interval of the point count into several subintervals and recording the detection history of the subintervals when each bird sings. The method can be viewed as generating data equivalent to closed capture–recapture information. The method is different from the distance and multiple-observer methods in that it is not required that all the birds sing during the point count. As this method is new and there is some concern as to how well individual birds can be followed, we carried out a field test of the method using simulated known populations of singing birds, using a laptop computer to send signals to audio stations distributed around a point. The system mimics actual aural avian point counts, but also allows us to know the size and spatial distribution of the populations we are sampling. Fifty 8-min point counts (broken into four 2-min intervals) using eight species of birds were simulated. Singing rate of an individual bird of a species was simulated following a Markovian process (singing bouts followed by periods of silence), which we felt was more realistic than a truly random process. The main emphasis of our paper is to compare results from species singing at (high and low) homogenous rates per interval with those singing at (high and low) heterogeneous rates. Population size was estimated accurately for the species simulated, with a high homogeneous probability of singing. Populations of simulated species with lower but homogeneous singing probabilities were somewhat underestimated. Populations of species simulated with heterogeneous singing probabilities were substantially underestimated. Underestimation was caused by both the very low detection probabilities of all distant individuals and by individuals with low singing rates also having very low detection probabilities.

Stability of a Seabird Population in the Presence of an Introduced Predator

We hypothesized that although large populations may appear able to withstand predation and disturbance, added stochasticity in population growth rate (λ) increases the risk of dramatic population declines. Approximately half of the Aleutian Islands' population of Least Auklets (Aethia pusilla) breed at one large colony at Kiska Island in the presence of introduced Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus) whose population erupts periodically. We evaluated two management plans, do nothing or eradicate rats, for this colony, and performed stochastic elasticity analysis to focus future research and management. Our results indicated that Least Auklets breeding at Kiska Island had the lowest absolute value of growth rate and more variable λ's (neither statistically significant) during 2001-2010, when compared with rat-free colonies at Buldir and Kasatochi islands. We found variability in the annual proportional change in population size among islands with Kiska Island having the fastest rate of decline, 78% over 20 years. Under the assumption that the eradication of rats would result in vital rates similar to those observed at rat-free Buldir and Kasatochi islands, we found the projected population decline decreased from 78% to 24% over 20 years. Overall, eradicating rats at Kiska Island is not likely to increase Least Auklet vital rates, but will decrease the amount of variation in λ, resulting in a significantly slower rate of population decline. We recommend the eradication of rats from Kiska Island to decrease the probability of dramatic population declines and ensure the future persistence of this important colony.

Assessing the use of forest islands by parrot species in a neotropical savanna

Understanding the effect of habitat fragmentation is a fundamental yet complicated aim of many ecological studies. Beni savanna is a naturally fragmented forest habitat, where forest islands exhibit variation in resources and threats. To understand how the availability of resources and threats affect the use of forest islands by parrots, we applied occupancy modeling to quantify use and detection probabilities for 12 parrot species on 60 forest islands. The presence of urucuri (Attalea phalerata) and macaw (Acrocomia aculeata) palms, the number of tree cavities on the islands, and the presence of selective logging,and fire were included as covariates associated with availability of resources and threats. The model-selection analysis indicated that both resources and threats variables explained the use of forest islands by parrots. For most species, the best models confirmed predictions. The number of cavities was positively associated with use of forest islands by 11 species. The area of the island and the presence of macaw palm showed a positive association with the probability of use by seven and five species, respectively, while selective logging and fire showed a negative association with five and six species, respectively. The Blue-throated Macaw (Ara glaucogularis), the critically endangered parrot species endemic to our study area, was the only species that showed a negative association with both threats. Monitoring continues to be essential to evaluate conservation and management actions of parrot populations. Understanding of how species are using this natural fragmented habitat will help determine which fragments should be preserved and which conservation actions are needed.