912 resultados para modeling trends and data


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Background: The US has higher rates of teen births and sexually transmitted infections (STI) than other developed countries. Texas youth are disproportionately impacted. Purpose: To review local, state, and national data on teens’ engagement in sexual risk behaviors to inform policy and practice related to teen sexual health. Methods: 2009 middle school and high school Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS) data, and data from All About Youth, a middle school study conducted in a large urban school district in Texas, were analyzed to assess the prevalence of sexual initiation, including the initiation of non-coital sex, and the prevalence of sexual risk behaviors among Texas and US youth. Results: A substantial proportion of middle and high school students are having sex. Sexual initiation begins as early as 6th grade and increases steadily through 12th grade with almost two-thirds of high school seniors being sexually experienced. Many teens are not protecting themselves from unintended pregnancy or STIs – nationally, 80% and 39% of high school students did not use birth control pills or a condom respectively the last time they had sex. Many middle and high school students are engaging in oral and anal sex, two behaviors which increase the risk of contracting an STI and HIV. In Texas, an estimated 689,512 out of 1,327,815 public high school students are sexually experienced – over half (52%) of the total high school population. Texas students surpass their US peers in several sexual risk behaviors including number of lifetime sexual partners, being currently sexually active, and not using effective methods of birth control or dual protection when having sex. They are also less likely to receive HIV/AIDS education in school. Conclusion: Changes in policy and practice, including implementation of evidence-based sex education programs in middle and high schools and increased access to integrated, teen-friendly sexual and reproductive health services, are urgently needed at the state and national levels to address these issues effectively.

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Recently it has been proposed that the evaluation of effects of pollutants on aquatic organisms can provide an early warning system of potential environmental and human health risks (NRC 1991). Unfortunately there are few methods available to aquatic biologists to conduct assessments of the effects of pollutants on aquatic animal community health. The primary goal of this research was to develop and evaluate the feasibility of such a method. Specifically, the primary objective of this study was to develop a prototype rapid bioassessment technique similar to the Index of Biotic Integrity (IBI) for the upper Texas and Northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastal tributaries. The IBI consists of a series of "metrics" which describes specific attributes of the aquatic community. Each of these metrics are given a score which is then subtotaled to derive a total assessment of the "health" of the aquatic community. This IBI procedure may provide an additional assessment tool for professionals in water quality management.^ The experimental design consisted primarily of compiling previously collected data from monitoring conducted by the Texas Natural Resource Conservation Commission (TNRCC) at five bayous classified according to potential for anthropogenic impact and salinity regime. Standardized hydrological, chemical, and biological monitoring had been conducted in each of these watersheds. The identification and evaluation of candidate metrics for inclusion in the estuarine IBI was conducted through the use of correlation analysis, cluster analysis, stepwise and normal discriminant analysis, and evaluation of cumulative distribution frequencies. Scores of each included metric were determined based on exceedances of specific percentiles. Individual scores were summed and a total IBI score and rank for the community computed.^ Results of these analyses yielded the proposed metrics and rankings listed in this report. Based on the results of this study, incorporation of an estuarine IBI method as a water quality assessment tool is warranted. Adopted metrics were correlated to seasonal trends and less so to salinity gradients observed during the study (0-25 ppt). Further refinement of this method is needed using a larger more inclusive data set which includes additional habitat types, salinity ranges, and temporal variation. ^

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The factorial validity of the SF-36 was evaluated using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) methods, structural equation modeling (SEM), and multigroup structural equation modeling (MSEM). First, the measurement and structural model of the hypothesized SF-36 was explicated. Second, the model was tested for the validity of a second-order factorial structure, upon evidence of model misfit, determined the best-fitting model, and tested the validity of the best-fitting model on a second random sample from the same population. Third, the best-fitting model was tested for invariance of the factorial structure across race, age, and educational subgroups using MSEM.^ The findings support the second-order factorial structure of the SF-36 as proposed by Ware and Sherbourne (1992). However, the results suggest that: (a) Mental Health and Physical Health covary; (b) general mental health cross-loads onto Physical Health; (c) general health perception loads onto Mental Health instead of Physical Health; (d) many of the error terms are correlated; and (e) the physical function scale is not reliable across these two samples. This hierarchical factor pattern was replicated across both samples of health care workers, suggesting that the post hoc model fitting was not data specific. Subgroup analysis suggests that the physical function scale is not reliable across the "age" or "education" subgroups and that the general mental health scale path from Mental Health is not reliable across the "white/nonwhite" or "education" subgroups.^ The importance of this study is in the use of SEM and MSEM in evaluating sample data from the use of the SF-36. These methods are uniquely suited to the analysis of latent variable structures and are widely used in other fields. The use of latent variable models for self reported outcome measures has become widespread, and should now be applied to medical outcomes research. Invariance testing is superior to mean scores or summary scores when evaluating differences between groups. From a practical, as well as, psychometric perspective, it seems imperative that construct validity research related to the SF-36 establish whether this same hierarchical structure and invariance holds for other populations.^ This project is presented as three articles to be submitted for publication. ^

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Air and water stable isotope measurements from four Greenland deep ice cores (GRIP, GISP2, NGRIP and NEEM) are investigated over a series of Dansgaard–Oeschger events (DO 8, 9 and 10), which are representative of glacial millennial scale variability. Combined with firn modeling, air isotope data allow us to quantify abrupt temperature increases for each drill site (1σ = 0.6 °C for NEEM, GRIP and GISP2, 1.5 °C for NGRIP). Our data show that the magnitude of stadial–interstadial temperature increase is up to 2 °C larger in central and North Greenland than in northwest Greenland: i.e., for DO 8, a magnitude of +8.8 °C is inferred, which is significantly smaller than the +11.1 °C inferred at GISP2. The same spatial pattern is seen for accumulation increases. This pattern is coherent with climate simulations in response to reduced sea-ice extent in the Nordic seas. The temporal water isotope (δ18O)–temperature relationship varies between 0.3 and 0.6 (±0.08) ‰ °C−1 and is systematically larger at NEEM, possibly due to limited changes in precipitation seasonality compared to GISP2, GRIP or NGRIP. The gas age−ice age difference of warming events represented in water and air isotopes can only be modeled when assuming a 26% (NGRIP) to 40% (GRIP) lower accumulation than that derived from a Dansgaard–Johnsen ice flow model.

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Jakobshavns Isbrae (69 degrees 10'N, 49 degrees 5'W) drains about 6.5% of the Greenland ice sheet and is the fastest ice stream known. The Jakobshavns Isbrae basin of about 10 000 km(2) was mapped photogrammetrically from four sets of aerial photography, two taken in July 1985 and two in July 1986. Positions and elevations of several hundred natural features on the ice surface were determined for each epoch by photogrammetric block-aerial triangulation, and surface velocity vectors were computed from the positions. The two flights in 1985 yielded the best results and provided most common points (716) for velocity determinations and are therefore used in the modeling studies. The data from these irregularly spaced points were used to calculate ice elevations and velocity vectors at uniformly spaced grid paints 3 km apart by interpolation. The field of surface strain rates was then calculated from these gridded data and used to compute the field of surface deviatoric stresses, using the flow law of ice, for rectilinear coordinates, X, Y pointing eastward and northward. and curvilinear coordinates, L, T pointing longitudinally and transversely to the changing ice-flow direction. Ice-surface elevations and slopes were then used to calculate ice thicknesses and the fraction of the ice velocity due to basal sliding. Our calculated ice thicknesses are in fair agreement with an ice-thickness map based on seismic sounding and supplied to us by K. Echelmeyer. Ice thicknesses were subtracted from measured ice-surface elevations to map bed topography. Our calculation shows that basal sliding is significant only in the 10-15 km before Jakobshavns Isbrae becomes afloat in Jakobshavns IsfJord.

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Rainfall controls fire in tropical savanna ecosystems through impacting both the amount and flammability of plant biomass, and consequently, predicted changes in tropical precipitation over the next century are likely to have contrasting effects on the fire regimes of wet and dry savannas. We reconstructed the long-term dynamics of biomass burning in equatorial East Africa, using fossil charcoal particles from two well-dated lake-sediment records in western Uganda and central Kenya. We compared these high-resolution (5 years/sample) time series of biomass burning, spanning the last 3800 and 1200 years, with independent data on past hydroclimatic variability and vegetation dynamics. In western Uganda, a rapid (<100 years) and permanent increase in burning occurred around 2170 years ago, when climatic drying replaced semideciduous forest by wooded grassland. At the century time scale, biomass burning was inversely related to moisture balance for much of the next two millennia until ca. 1750 ad, when burning increased strongly despite regional climate becoming wetter. A sustained decrease in burning since the mid20th century reflects the intensified modern-day landscape conversion into cropland and plantations. In contrast, in semiarid central Kenya, biomass burning peaked at intermediate moisture-balance levels, whereas it was lower both during the wettest and driest multidecadal periods of the last 1200 years. Here, burning steadily increased since the mid20th century, presumably due to more frequent deliberate ignitions for bush clearing and cattle ranching. Both the observed historical trends and regional contrasts in biomass burning are consistent with spatial variability in fire regimes across the African savanna biome today. They demonstrate the strong dependence of East African fire regimes on both climatic moisture balance and vegetation, and the extent to which this dependence is now being overridden by anthropogenic activity.

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Antimicrobial drugs may be used to treat diarrheal illness in companion animals. It is important to monitor antimicrobial use to better understand trends and patterns in antimicrobial resistance. There is no monitoring of antimicrobial use in companion animals in Canada. To explore how the use of electronic medical records could contribute to the ongoing, systematic collection of antimicrobial use data in companion animals, anonymized electronic medical records were extracted from 12 participating companion animal practices and warehoused at the University of Calgary. We used the pre-diagnostic, clinical features of diarrhea as the case definition in this study. Using text-mining technologies, cases of diarrhea were described by each of the following variables: diagnostic laboratory tests performed, the etiological diagnosis and antimicrobial therapies. The ability of the text miner to accurately describe the cases for each of the variables was evaluated. It could not reliably classify cases in terms of diagnostic tests or etiological diagnosis; a manual review of a random sample of 500 diarrhea cases determined that 88/500 (17.6%) of the target cases underwent diagnostic testing of which 36/88 (40.9%) had an etiological diagnosis. Text mining, compared to a human reviewer, could accurately identify cases that had been treated with antimicrobials with high sensitivity (92%, 95% confidence interval, 88.1%-95.4%) and specificity (85%, 95% confidence interval, 80.2%-89.1%). Overall, 7400/15,928 (46.5%) of pets presenting with diarrhea were treated with antimicrobials. Some temporal trends and patterns of the antimicrobial use are described. The results from this study suggest that informatics and the electronic medical records could be useful for monitoring trends in antimicrobial use.

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Increasing commercial pressures on land are provoking fundamental and far-reaching changes in the relationships between people and land. Much knowledge on land-oriented investments projects currently comes from the media. Although this provides a good starting point, lack of transparency and rapidly changing contexts mean that this is often unreliable. The International Land Coalition, in partnership with Oxfam Novib, Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement (CIRAD), University of Pretoria, Centre for Development and Environment of the University of Bern (CDE), and GIZ, started to compile an inventory of land-related investments. This project aims to better understand the extent, trends and impacts of land-related investments by supporting an ongoing and systematic stocktaking exercise of the various investment projects currently taking place worldwide. It involves a large number of organizations and individuals working in areas where land transactions are being made, and able to provide details of such investments. The project monitors land transactions in rural areas that imply a transformation of land use rights from communities and smallholders to commercial use, and are made both by domestic and foreign investors (private actors, governments, government-back private investors). The focus is on investments for food or agrofuel production, timber extraction, carbon trading, mineral extraction, conservation and tourism. A novel way of using ITC to document land acquisitions in a spatially explicit way and by using an approach called “crowdsourcing” is being developed. This approach will allow actors to share information and knowledge directly and at any time on a public platform, where it will be scrutinized in terms of reliability and cross checked with other sources. Up to now, over 1200 deals have been recorded across 96 countries. Details of such transactions have been classified in a matrix and distributed to over 350 contacts worldwide for verification. The verified information has been geo-referenced and represented in two global maps. This is an open database enabling a continued monitoring exercise and the improvement of data accuracy. More information will be released over time. The opportunities arise from overcoming constraints by incomplete information by proposing a new way of collecting, enhancing and sharing information and knowledge in a more democratic and transparent manner. The intention is to develop interactive knowledge platform where any interested person can share and access information on land deals, their link to involved stakeholders, and their embedding into a geographical context. By making use of new ICT technologies that are more and more in the reach of local stakeholders, as well as open access and web-based spatial information systems, it will become possible to create a dynamic database containing spatial explicit data. Feeding in data by a large number of stakeholders, increasingly also by means of new mobile ITC technologies, will open up new opportunities to analyse, monitor and assess highly dynamic trends of land acquisition and rural transformation.

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Tropical forests are carbon-dense and highly productive ecosystems. Consequently, they play an important role in the global carbon cycle. In the present study we used an individual-based forest model (FORMIND) to analyze the carbon balances of a tropical forest. The main processes of this model are tree growth, mortality, regeneration, and competition. Model parameters were calibrated using forest inventory data from a tropical forest at Mt. Kilimanjaro. The simulation results showed that the model successfully reproduces important characteristics of tropical forests (aboveground biomass, stem size distribution and leaf area index). The estimated aboveground biomass (385 t/ha) is comparable to biomass values in the Amazon and other tropical forests in Africa. The simulated forest reveals a gross primary production of 24 tcha-1yr-1. Modeling above- and belowground carbon stocks, we analyzed the carbon balance of the investigated tropical forest. The simulated carbon balance of this old-growth forest is zero on average. This study provides an example of how forest models can be used in combination with forest inventory data to investigate forest structure and local carbon balances.

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Child overweight and obesity reaches across ethnic, cultural, socioeconomic and regional barriers. It must be assessed, diagnosed and treated to help families make sustainable behavior changes. Treatment recommendations have been made to address pediatric overweight and obesity. They include screening for risk factors, monitoring BMI trends and educating patients and families to make small sustainable changes. Health insurance companies can play a meaningful role in supporting and facilitating provider education and behavior change to diagnose, treat and prevent pediatric overweight and obesity.^ The aims of this thesis were: (1) Describe a disease management program that uses evidence-based practices to create provider behavior change related to pediatric obesity screening, diagnosis and treatment. (2) Identify ways to improve the implementation of the program based on the perceptions of participating clinicians.^ A literature review was completed to evaluate current recommendations for screening and treating pediatric obesity using the Ovid data base. The evidenced-based recommendations were compared against the practices of the Healthy Lifestyles Program (HeLP). The literature confirmed that HeLP is following evidence-based recommendations for assessment, diagnosis and treatment of pediatric obesity.^ A Children’s Mercy Family Health Partners focus group was convened to create a provider survey. The goals of the survey were to assess providers’ perception of the Healthy Lifestyles Program (HeLP). The survey was sent out through email using Survey Monkey. All survey responses were anonymous. The survey was sent to a total of 80 providers who had completed HeLP. Twenty-five percent responded. The survey results were evaluated to make recommendations for HeLP.^ Results of the survey included motivating factors for participation in HeLP. Concern about the increasing prevalence of pediatric obesity was a frequent motivator for participation. Provider barriers to obesity diagnosis were evaluated. Lack of time during clinic visits a frequent barrier to obesity diagnosis. ^ In conclusion several recommendations for the HeLP were made based on survey results. It is recommended that the program evaluate methods and tools for facilitating effective weight management follow up visits. Promotional materials should highlight the increasing prevalence of pediatric obesity when advertising HeLP. These recommendations will be used to refine the current Healthy Lifestyles Program.^

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Background. Research has demonstrated associations between sociodemographic characteristics and illness perceptions; however, the impact of cancer exposure through personal or family diagnoses is not well-studied. The purposes of this study were to examine the prevalence of different cancer beliefs and the disparity in cancer beliefs across groups of individuals with distinct cancer histories; and to identify whether, when adjusted for sociodemographic characteristics, cancer history predicts a set of cancer beliefs.^ Methods. Using Leventhal’s Common Sense Model and data from the 2007 Health Information National Trends Survey (N=7172), we constructed multivariable logistic regressions to evaluate the effect of different stimuli, including cancer experience, on cancer perceptions (e.g., risk, worry, causation, outcome).^ Results. Findings indicate significant associations between cancer history and cancer perceptions. Individuals with family and personal cancer histories were more likely than individuals without any cancer history to worry about getting cancer (OR=3.55, P<0.01), agree they will develop cancer in the future (OR=8.81, P<0.01), and disagree that cancer is most often caused by a person’s behavior or lifestyle (OR=1.24, P=0.03). Additionally, results support education’s role in forming cancer perceptions. Individuals with high levels of education were more likely to endorse cancer prevention (OR=1.68, P<0.01) and higher 5-year survival rates (OR=1.41, P<0.01). ^ Conclusions. Results indicate cancer history affects cancer perceptions throughout the cancer continuum. Additionally, cancer history may influence coping behaviors and outcomes related to cancer.^ Impact. Cancer education and survivorship programs should assess important variables (e.g., cancer history) to more effectively tailor services and monitor evolving needs throughout cancer care.^

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The Arctic Ocean is connected with the North Atlantic Ocean by the Fram Strait between Greenland and Svalbard. The strait is located in the northern part of the Greenland Sea. In the eastern part of the strait, warm saline water flows northward as the West Spitsbergen Current; while in the western part, cold less-saline water flows southward as the East Greenland Current. The northwestern part of the Greenland Sea is normally covered with sea ice even in summer. Furthermore, this region is regarded as a major area where the Arctic sea ice is discharged into mid latitude oceans. Thus, this area plays an important role in heat and salt exchange processes in the Arctic marine system. The reveal exchange processes of water masses and ocean-atmosphere interaction in high-latitude oceans, a number of international research programs have been focused on the Greenland Sea and its surrounding waters. As one of the international Arctic research programs, oceanographic studies have been executed in cooperation with the Norsk Polarinstitutt and other institutes under the leadership of the National Institute of Polar Research since 1991. Japanese scientists have been carrying out field observations in and around Svalbard. The observations include not only physical measurements but also biological surveys. This report presents physical oceanographic data obtained in the Greenland Sea in 1992 and 1993, and data around Svalbard from 1991 to 1993.

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Distribution, accumulation and diagenesis of surficial sediments in coastal and continental shelf systems follow complex chains of localized processes and form deposits of great spatial variability. Given the environmental and economic relevance of ocean margins, there is growing need for innovative geophysical exploration methods to characterize seafloor sediments by more than acoustic properties. A newly conceptualized benthic profiling and data processing approach based on controlled source electromagnetic (CSEM) imaging permits to coevally quantify the magnetic susceptibility and the electric conductivity of shallow marine deposits. The two physical properties differ fundamentally insofar as magnetic susceptibility mostly assesses solid particle characteristics such as terrigenous or iron mineral content, redox state and contamination level, while electric conductivity primarily relates to the fluid-filled pore space and detects salinity, porosity and grain-size variations. We develop and validate a layered half-space inversion algorithm for submarine multifrequency CSEM with concentric sensor configuration. Guided by results of modeling, we modified a commercial land CSEM sensor for submarine application, which was mounted into a nonconductive and nonmagnetic bottom-towed sled. This benthic EM profiler Neridis II achieves 25 soundings/second at 3-4 knots over continuous profiles of up to hundred kilometers. Magnetic susceptibility is determined from the 75 Hz in-phase response (90% signal originates from the top 50 cm), while electric conductivity is derived from the 5 kHz out-of-phase (quadrature) component (90% signal from the top 92 cm). Exemplary survey data from the north-west Iberian margin underline the excellent sensitivity, functionality and robustness of the system in littoral (~0-50 m) and neritic (~50-300 m) environments. Susceptibility vs. porosity cross-plots successfully identify known lithofacies units and their transitions. All presently available data indicate an eminent potential of CSEM profiling for assessing the complex distribution of shallow marine surficial sediments and for revealing climatic, hydrodynamic, diagenetic and anthropogenic factors governing their formation.

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A critical problem in radiocarbon dating is the spatial and temporal variability of marine reservoir ages (MRAs). We assessed the MRA evolution during the last deglaciation by numerical modeling, applying a self-consistent iteration scheme in which an existing radiocarbon chronology (derived by Hughen et al., Quat. Sci. Rev., 25, pp. 3216-3227, 2006) was readjusted by transient, 3-D simulations of marine and atmospheric Delta14C. To estimate the uncertainties regarding the ocean ventilation during the last deglaciation, we considered various ocean overturning scenarios which are based on different climatic background states (PD: modern climate, GS: LGM climate conditions). Minimum and maximum MRAs are included in file 'MRAminmax_21-14kaBP.nc'. Three further files include MRAs according to equilibrium simulations of the preindustrial ocean (file 'C14age_preindustrial.nc'; this is an update of our results published in 2005) and of the glacial ocean (files 'C14age_spinupLGM_GS.nc' and 'C14age_spinupLGM_PD.nc').

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Spectral absorption coefficients of total particulate matter ap (lambda) were determined using the in vitro filter technique. The present analysis deals with a set of 1166 spectra, determined in various oceanic (case 1) waters, with field chl a concentrations ([chl]) spanning 3 orders of magnitude (0.02-25 mg/m**3). As previously shown [Bricaud et al., 1995, doi:10.1029/95JC00463] for the absorption coefficients of living phytoplankton a phi (lamda), the ap (labda) coefficients also increase nonlinearly with [chl]. The relationships (power laws) that link ap (lambda) and a phi (lambda) to [chl] show striking similarities. Despite large fluctuations, the relative contribution of nonalgal particles to total absorption oscillates around an average value of 25-30% throughout the [chl] range. The spectral dependence of absorption by these nonalgal particles follows an exponential increase toward short wavelengths, with a weakly variable slope (0.011 ± 0.0025/nm). The empirical relationships linking ap (lambda) to ([chl]) can be used in bio-optical models. This parameterization based on in vitro measurements leads to a good agreement with a former modeling of the diffuse attenuation coefficient based on in situ measurements. This agreement is worth noting as independent methods and data sets are compared. It is stressed that for a given ([chl]), the ap (lambda) coefficients show large residual variability around the regression lines (for instance, by a factor of 3 at 440 nm). The consequences of such a variability, when predicting or interpreting the diffuse reflectance of the ocean, are examined, according to whether or not these variations in ap are associated with concomitant variations in particle scattering. In most situations the deviations in ap actually are not compensated by those in particle scattering, so that the amplitude of reflectance is affected by these variations.