Ink dating using thermal desorption and gas chromatography / mass spectrometry: comparison of results obtained in two laboratories

Recent ink dating methods focused mainly on changes in solvent amounts occurring over time. A promising method was developed at the Landeskriminalamt of Munich using thermal desorption (TD) followed by gas chromatography / mass spectrometry (GC/MS) analysis. Sequential extractions of the phenoxyethanol present in ballpoint pen ink entries were carried out at two different temperatures. This method is applied in forensic practice and is currently implemented in several laboratories participating to the InCID group (International Collaboration on Ink Dating). However, harmonization of the method between the laboratories proved to be a particularly sensitive and time consuming task. The main aim of this work was therefore to implement the TD-GC/MS method at the Bundeskriminalamt (Wiesbaden, Germany) in order to evaluate if results were comparable to those obtained in Munich. At first validation criteria such as limits of reliable measurements, linearity and repeatability were determined. Samples were prepared in three different laboratories using the same inks and analyzed using two TDS-GC/MS instruments (one in Munich and one in Wiesbaden). The inter- and intra-laboratory variability of the ageing parameter was determined and ageing curves were compared. While inks stored in similar conditions yielded comparable ageing curves, it was observed that significantly different storage conditions had an influence on the resulting ageing curves. Finally, interpretation models, such as thresholds and trend tests, were evaluated and discussed in view of the obtained results. Trend tests were considered more suitable than threshold models. As both approaches showed limitations, an alternative model, based on the slopes of the ageing curves, was also proposed.

Meiotic drive favors Robertsonian metacentric chromosomes in the common shrew (Sorex araneus, Insectivora, mammalia).

Meiotic drive has attracted much interest because it concerns the robustness of Mendelian segregation and its genetic and evolutionary stability. We studied chromosomal meiotic drive in the common shrew (Sorex araneus, Insectivora, Mammalia), which exhibits one of the most remarkable chromosomal polymorphisms within mammalian species. The open question of the evolutionary success of metacentric chromosomes (Robertsonian fusions) versus acrocentrics in the common shrew prompted us to test whether a segregation distortion in favor of metacentrics is present in female and/or male meiosis. Performing crosses under controlled laboratory conditions with animals from natural populations, we found a clear trend toward a segregation distortion in favor of metacentrics during male meiosis, two chromosome combinations (gm and jl) being significantly preferred over their acrocentric homologs. Apart for one Robertsonian fusion (hi), this trend was absent in female meiosis. We propose a model based on recombination events between twin acrocentrics to explain the difference in transmission ratios of the same metacentric in different sexes and unequal drive of particular metacentrics in the same sex. Pooled data for female and male meiosis revealed a trend toward stronger segregation distortion for larger metacentrics. This is partially in agreement with the frequency of metacentrics occurring in natural populations of a chromosome race showing a high degree of chromosomal polymorphism.

Finite mixture analysis of beauty-contest data using generalised beta distributions

This paper introduces a mixture model based on the beta distribution, without preestablishedmeans and variances, to analyze a large set of Beauty-Contest data obtainedfrom diverse groups of experiments (Bosch-Domenech et al. 2002). This model gives a bettert of the experimental data, and more precision to the hypothesis that a large proportionof individuals follow a common pattern of reasoning, described as iterated best reply (degenerate),than mixture models based on the normal distribution. The analysis shows thatthe means of the distributions across the groups of experiments are pretty stable, while theproportions of choices at dierent levels of reasoning vary across groups.

Crystal size distribution of periclase in contact metamorphic dolomite marbles from the southern Adamello Massif, Italy

Crystal size distributions (CSD) of periclase in contact metamorphic dolomite marbles are presented for two profiles near the Cima Uzza summit in the southern Adamello Massif (Italy). The database was combined with geochemical and petrological information to deduce the controls on the periclase-forming reaction. The contact metamorphic dolomite marbles are exposed at the contact of mafic intrusive rocks and are partially surrounded by them. Brucite is retrograde and pseudomorphs spherical periclase crystals. Prograde periclase growth is the consequence of limited infiltration of water-rich fluid at T near 605C. Stable isotope data show depletion in (13)C and (18)O over a narrow region (40 cm) near the magmatic contact, whereas the periclase-forming reaction front extends up to 4 m from the contact. CSD analyses along the two profiles show that the median grain size of the periclase crystals does not change, but that there is a progressively greater distribution of grain sizes, including a greater proportion of larger grains, with increasing distance from the contact. A qualitative model, based on the textural and geochemical data, attributes these variations in grain size to changing reaction affinities along a kinetically dispersed infiltration front. This study highlights the need to invoke disequilibrium processes for metamorphic mineral growth and expands the use of CSDs to systems of mineral formation driven by fluid infiltration.

Robust Nonlinear Mapping of Soil Contamination Using Support Regression

Spatial data analysis mapping and visualization is of great importance in various fields: environment, pollution, natural hazards and risks, epidemiology, spatial econometrics, etc. A basic task of spatial mapping is to make predictions based on some empirical data (measurements). A number of state-of-the-art methods can be used for the task: deterministic interpolations, methods of geostatistics: the family of kriging estimators (Deutsch and Journel, 1997), machine learning algorithms such as artificial neural networks (ANN) of different architectures, hybrid ANN-geostatistics models (Kanevski and Maignan, 2004; Kanevski et al., 1996), etc. All the methods mentioned above can be used for solving the problem of spatial data mapping. Environmental empirical data are always contaminated/corrupted by noise, and often with noise of unknown nature. That's one of the reasons why deterministic models can be inconsistent, since they treat the measurements as values of some unknown function that should be interpolated. Kriging estimators treat the measurements as the realization of some spatial randomn process. To obtain the estimation with kriging one has to model the spatial structure of the data: spatial correlation function or (semi-)variogram. This task can be complicated if there is not sufficient number of measurements and variogram is sensitive to outliers and extremes. ANN is a powerful tool, but it also suffers from the number of reasons. of a special type ? multiplayer perceptrons ? are often used as a detrending tool in hybrid (ANN+geostatistics) models (Kanevski and Maignank, 2004). Therefore, development and adaptation of the method that would be nonlinear and robust to noise in measurements, would deal with the small empirical datasets and which has solid mathematical background is of great importance. The present paper deals with such model, based on Statistical Learning Theory (SLT) - Support Vector Regression. SLT is a general mathematical framework devoted to the problem of estimation of the dependencies from empirical data (Hastie et al, 2004; Vapnik, 1998). SLT models for classification - Support Vector Machines - have shown good results on different machine learning tasks. The results of SVM classification of spatial data are also promising (Kanevski et al, 2002). The properties of SVM for regression - Support Vector Regression (SVR) are less studied. First results of the application of SVR for spatial mapping of physical quantities were obtained by the authorsin for mapping of medium porosity (Kanevski et al, 1999), and for mapping of radioactively contaminated territories (Kanevski and Canu, 2000). The present paper is devoted to further understanding of the properties of SVR model for spatial data analysis and mapping. Detailed description of the SVR theory can be found in (Cristianini and Shawe-Taylor, 2000; Smola, 1996) and basic equations for the nonlinear modeling are given in section 2. Section 3 discusses the application of SVR for spatial data mapping on the real case study - soil pollution by Cs137 radionuclide. Section 4 discusses the properties of the modelapplied to noised data or data with outliers.

J-shaped association between serum glucose and functional outcome in acute ischemic stroke.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Hyperglycemia after stroke is associated with larger infarct volume and poorer functional outcome. In an animal stroke model, the association between serum glucose and infarct volume is described by a U-shaped curve with a nadir ≈7 mmol/L. However, a similar curve in human studies was never reported. The objective of the present study is to investigate the association between serum glucose levels and functional outcome in patients with acute ischemic stroke. METHODS: We analyzed 1446 consecutive patients with acute ischemic stroke. Serum glucose was measured on admission at the emergency department together with multiple other metabolic, clinical, and radiological parameters. National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score was recorded at 24 hours, and Rankin score was recorded at 3 and 12 months. The association between serum glucose and favorable outcome (Rankin score ≤2) was explored in univariate and multivariate analysis. The model was further analyzed in a robust regression model based on fractional polynomial (-2-2) functions. RESULTS: Serum glucose is independently correlated with functional outcome at 12 months (OR, 1.15; P=0.01). Other predictors of outcome include admission NIHSS score (OR, 1.18; P<0001), age (OR, 1.06; P<0.001), prestroke Rankin score (OR, 20.8; P=0.004), and leukoaraiosis (OR, 2.21; P=0.016). Using these factors in multiple logistic regression analysis, the area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve is 0.869. The association between serum glucose and Rankin score at 12 months is described by a J-shaped curve with a nadir of 5 mmol/L. Glucose values between 3.7 and 7.3 mmol/L are associated with favorable outcome. A similar curve was generated for the association of glucose and 24-hour NIHSS score, for which glucose values between 4.0 and 7.2 mmol/L are associated with a NIHSS score <7. Discussion-Both hypoglycemia and hyperglycemia are dangerous in acute ischemic stroke as shown by a J-shaped association between serum glucose and 24-hour and 12-month outcome. Initial serum glucose values between 3.7 and 7.3 mmol/L are associated with favorable outcome.

Simultaneous determination of gross alpha, gross beta and Ra-226 in natural water by liquid scintillation counting.

The determination of gross alpha, gross beta and 226Ra activity in natural waters is useful in a wide range of environmental studies. Furthermore, gross alpha and gross beta parameters are included in international legislation on the quality of drinking water [Council Directive 98/83/EC].1 In this work, a low-background liquid scintillation counter (Wallac, Quantulus 1220) was used to simultaneously determine gross alpha, gross beta and 226Ra activity in natural water samples. Sample preparation involved evaporation to remove 222Rn and its short-lived decay daughters. The evaporation process concentrated the sample ten-fold. Afterwards, a sample aliquot of 8 mL was mixed with 12 mL of Ultima Gold AB scintillation cocktail in low-diffusion vials. In this study, a theoretical mathematical model based on secular equilibrium conditions between 226Ra and its short-lived decay daughters is presented. The proposed model makes it possible to determine 226Ra activity from two measurements. These measurements also allow determining gross alpha and gross beta simultaneously. To validate the proposed model, spiked samples with different activity levels for each parameter were analysed. Additionally, to evaluate the model's applicability in natural water, eight natural water samples from different parts of Spain were analysed. The eight natural water samples were also characterised by alpha spectrometry for the naturally occurring isotopes of uranium (234U, 235U and 238U), radium (224Ra and 226Ra), 210Po and 232Th. The results for gross alpha and 226Ra activity were compared with alpha spectrometry characterization, and an acceptable concordance was obtained.

Cancer chronotherapeutics: experimental, theoretical, and clinical aspects.

The circadian timing system controls cell cycle, apoptosis, drug bioactivation, and transport and detoxification mechanisms in healthy tissues. As a consequence, the tolerability of cancer chemotherapy varies up to several folds as a function of circadian timing of drug administration in experimental models. Best antitumor efficacy of single-agent or combination chemotherapy usually corresponds to the delivery of anticancer drugs near their respective times of best tolerability. Mathematical models reveal that such coincidence between chronotolerance and chronoefficacy is best explained by differences in the circadian and cell cycle dynamics of host and cancer cells, especially with regard circadian entrainment and cell cycle variability. In the clinic, a large improvement in tolerability was shown in international randomized trials where cancer patients received the same sinusoidal chronotherapy schedule over 24h as compared to constant-rate infusion or wrongly timed chronotherapy. However, sex, genetic background, and lifestyle were found to influence optimal chronotherapy scheduling. These findings support systems biology approaches to cancer chronotherapeutics. They involve the systematic experimental mapping and modeling of chronopharmacology pathways in synchronized cell cultures and their adjustment to mouse models of both sexes and distinct genetic background, as recently shown for irinotecan. Model-based personalized circadian drug delivery aims at jointly improving tolerability and efficacy of anticancer drugs based on the circadian timing system of individual patients, using dedicated circadian biomarker and drug delivery technologies.

Life designing: A paradigm for career construction in the 21st century

At the beginning of the 21st century, a new social arrangement of work poses a series of questions and challenges to scholars who aim to help people develop their working lives. Given the globalization of career counseling, we decided to address these issues and then to formulate potentially innovative responses in an international forum. We used this approach to avoid the difficulties of creating models and methods in one country and then trying to export them to other countries where they would be adapted for use. This article presents the initial outcome of this collaboration, a counseling model and methods. The life-designing model for career intervention endorses five presuppositions about people and their work lives: contextual possibilities, dynamic processes, non-linear progression, multiple perspectives, and personal patterns. Thinking from these five presuppositions, we have crafted a contextualized model based on the epistemology of social constructionism, particularly recognizing that an individual's knowledge and identity are the product of social interaction and that meaning is co-constructed through discourse. The life-design framework for counseling implements the theories of self-constructing [Guichard, J. (2005). Life-long self-construction. International Journal for Educational and Vocational Guidance, 5, 111-124] and career construction [Savickas, M. L. (2005). The theory and practice of career construction. In S. D. Brown & R. W. Lent (Eds.), Career development and counselling: putting theory and research to work (pp. 42-70). Hoboken, NJ: Wiley] that describe vocational behavior and its development. Thus, the framework is structured to be life-long, holistic, contextual, and preventive.

Economic evaluation of the levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system for the treatment of dysfunctional uterine bleeding in Spain

To compare the cost and effectiveness of the levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system (LNG-IUS) versus combined oral contraception (COC) and progestogens (PROG) in first-line treatment of dysfunctional uterine bleeding (DUB) in Spain. STUDY DESIGN: A cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analysis of LNG-IUS, COC and PROG was carried out using a Markov model based on clinical data from the literature and expert opinion. The population studied were women with a previous diagnosis of idiopathic heavy menstrual bleeding. The analysis was performed from the National Health System perspective, discounting both costs and future effects at 3%. In addition, a sensitivity analysis (univariate and probabilistic) was conducted. RESULTS: The results show that the greater efficacy of LNG-IUS translates into a gain of 1.92 and 3.89 symptom-free months (SFM) after six months of treatment versus COC and PROG, respectively (which represents an increase of 33% and 60% of symptom-free time). Regarding costs, LNG-IUS produces savings of 174.2-309.95 and 230.54-577.61 versus COC and PROG, respectively, after 6 months-5 years. Apart from cost savings and gains in SFM, quality-adjusted life months (QALM) are also favourable to LNG-IUS in all scenarios, with a range of gains between 1 and 2 QALM compared to COC and PROG. CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate that first-line use of the LNG-IUS is the dominant therapeutic option (less costly and more effective) in comparison with first-line use of COC or PROG for the treatment of DUB in Spain. LNG-IUS as first line is also the option that provides greatest health-related quality of life to patients.

Secure Dynamic MANET On-demand (SEDYMO) Routing Protocol

This paper describes the state of the art of secure ad hoc routing protocols and presents SEDYMO, a mechanism to secure a dynamic multihop ad hoc routing protocol. The proposed solution defeats internal and external attacks usinga trustworthiness model based on a distributed certification authority. Digital signatures and hash chains are used to ensure the correctness of the protocol. The protocol is compared with other alternatives in terms of security strength, energy efficiency and time delay. Both computational and transmission costs are considered and it is shown that the secure protocol overhead is not a critical factor compared to the high network interface cost.

Optimointijärjestelmän kehittäminen sähköä ja lämpöä tuottavaan voimalaitokseen

Työn tavoitteena oli kehittää automaattinen optimointijärjestelmä energiayhtiön omistamaan pieneen sähkön- ja lämmöntuotantolaitokseen (CHP-laitos). Optimointitarve perustuu energiayhtiön sähkön hankintaan sähköpörssistä, kaasun hankintahintaan, kohteen paikallisiin sähkö- ja lämpökuormituksiin ja muihin laitoksen talouteen vaikuttaviin tekijöihin. Kehitettävällä optimointijärjestelmällä ontarkoitus tulevaisuudessa hallita useita hajautetun energiantuotannon yksiköitäkeskitetysti. Työssä kehitettiin algoritmi, joka optimoi voimalaitoksen taloutta sähkötehoa säätävillä ajomalleilla ja suoralla sähköteho-ohjeella. Työssä kehitetyn algoritmin tuottamia hyötyjä selvitettiin Harjun oppimiskeskuksen CHP-laitoksen mittaushistoriatiedoilla. CHP-laitosten käytön optimointiin luotiin keskitettyyn laskentaan ja hajautettuun ohjaukseen perustuva järjestelmä. Se ohjaa CHP-laitoksia reaaliaikaisesti ja ennustaa historiatietoihin perustuvalla aikasarjamallilla laitoksen tulevaa käyttöä. Optimointijärjestelmän toimivuus ja saatu hyöty selvitettiin Harjun oppimiskeskuksen CHP-laitoksella vertaamalla mittauksista laskettua toteutunutta hyötyä optimointijärjestelmän laskemaan ennustettuun hyötyyn.

Riskianalyysistäohjeelliseen panostussuunnitelmaan

Nykytekniikalla kyetään tehokkaaseen ja turvalliseen työn toteuttamiseen. Suorituksen aikaansaanti edellyttää ympäristön kartoittamista niin, että urakoitsija tuntee ne seikat, jotka ovat tarpeen, jotta työ voidaan suorittaa vaurioittamatta olevia rakennuksia ja aiheuttamatta asukkaille vaaratilanteita. Riskianalyysi tuo esille ne seikat, jotka on syytä tietää työn laskenta- ja suoritustilanteessa. On tunnettava käytettävät räjähdysaineet ja mitä tapahtuu räjähdysprosessissa. Prosessin ideaalimallin (harmoninen värähtely) pohjalta on kehitetty teorioita, joiden avulla kyetään pitämään suorituksen aiheuttama tärinätaso sellaisena, ettei ympäristössä olevia entisiä rakennuksia vaurioiteta eikä teknisestä suorituksesta aiheudu vaaratilanteita ihmisille. Riskianalyysi- ja rakennuskatselmustietojen perusteella mitoitetaan käytettävä panos sellaiseksi, että asetetut turvallisuusvaateet tulevat täytetyiksi. Työn suorituksen onnistumiseksilaaditaan ohjeellinen panostussuunnitelma, jossa käytettävä panoskoko ilmoitetaan etäisyyden funktiona varottavasta kohteesta. Samassa esityksessä käy selville rakenteille sallittu tärinäaallon heilahdusnopeus mm/s:ssa. Muuttunut etäisyys ja se tosiasia, etteivät räjäytyskentät ole tärinätasoltaan identtisiä, vaikka etäisyys ja panoskoko ovat samat, tarvitsee muutostentekoa varten teoreettistasoisen esityksen tuekseen. Tuo tuki on ohjeellinen panostussuunnitelma. Muutosten perusteena ei ole mutu - menettely, vaan teoreettinen, yleisesti hyväksyttyihin menettelytapoihin perustuva malli.

Paperiteollisuuden prosessinostureiden elinjaksokustannuslaskenta

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli selvittää, kuinka paljon paperi- ja kartonkikoneiden prosessinosturit aiheuttavat kustannuksia siirrettyä tonnia kohti. Asiaa tarkasteltiin asiakkaan näkökulmasta. Työn lisätavoitteena oli myös pohtia uutta elinjaksokustannuksiin perustuvaa nostopalvelumallia, jossa asiakas maksaa saamastaan hyödystä siirrettyjen tonnien mukaisesti. Elinjaksokustannuslaskentaa (LCC= Life Cycle Cost) hyödynnetään laskettaessa tuotteeseen kohdistuvia kokonaiskustannuksia. Työssä tutkittiin neljää eri prosessinosturia, joiden kustannukset jaettiin investointi-, käyttö-, kunnossapito- ja epäkäytettävyyskustannuksiin. Tämän kustannusten jaottelun perusteella työssä rakennettiin LCC-laskentamalli, jonka avulla nostureiden vuosittaiset kustannukset voitiin määrittää. Työssä tutkittujen neljän nosturin tapauksissa saatiin laaditulla laskentamallilla kokonaiskustannuksiksi 0,50 - 1,00 euroa ja kunnossapitokustannuksiksi 0,07 - 0,14 euroa siirrettyä tonnia kohti. Herkkyysanalyysien tuloksissa laskentakorolla oli kolmessa tapauksessa neljästä suurin vaikutus kokonaistulokseen. Kymmenen prosentinmuutos laskentakorossa vaikutti noin 6 % - 7,5 %:a lopputulokseen. Huoltotuntien määrällä taas oli tutkituista tekijöistä vähiten vaikutusta kokonaistulokseen. Nostopalvelusta luotiin kolmitasoinen. Ylimmällä tasolla asiakkaan ei enää tarvitse omistaa omaa nosturia, vaan asiakas maksaa ainoastaan siirretyistä tonneista. Tarkastelun johtopäätöksenä on, että solmimalla nostopalvelusopimuksen asiakas voi saada paremman ennustettavuuden kunnossapitokustannuksiinsa ja mahdollisuuden säästää omistuskustannuksissa.

Decompression scenarios in a new underground transportation system

BACKGROUND: The risks of a public exposure to a sudden decompression, until now, have been related to civil aviation and, at a lesser extent, to diving activities. However, engineers are currently planning the use of low pressure environments for underground transportation. This method has been proposed for the future Swissmetro, a high-speed underground train designed for inter-urban linking in Switzerland. HYPOTHESIS: The use of a low pressure environment in an underground public transportation system must be considered carefully regarding the decompression risks. Indeed, due to the enclosed environment, both decompression kinetics and safety measures may differ from aviation decompression cases. METHOD: A theoretical study of decompression risks has been conducted at an early stage of the Swissmetro project. A three-compartment theoretical model, based on the physics of fluids, has been implemented with flow processing software (Ithink 5.0). Simulations have been conducted in order to analyze "decompression scenarios" for a wide range of parameters, relevant in the context of the Swissmetro main study. RESULTS: Simulation results cover a wide range from slow to explosive decompression, depending on the simulation parameters. Not surprisingly, the leaking orifice area has a tremendous impact on barotraumatic effects, while the tunnel pressure may significantly affect both hypoxic and barotraumatic effects. Calculations have also shown that reducing the free space around the vehicle may mitigate significantly an accidental decompression. CONCLUSION: Numeric simulations are relevant to assess decompression risks in the future Swissmetro system. The decompression model has proven to be useful in assisting both design choices and safety management.