Building the niche through time: using 13,000 years of data to predict the effects of climate change on three tree species in Europe

Aim Species distribution models (SDMs) based on current species ranges underestimate the potential distribution when projected in time and/or space. A multi-temporal model calibration approach has been suggested as an alternative, and we evaluate this using 13,000 years of data. Location Europe. Methods We used fossil-based records of presence for Picea abies, Abies alba and Fagus sylvatica and six climatic variables for the period 13,000 to 1000yr bp. To measure the contribution of each 1000-year time step to the total niche of each species (the niche measured by pooling all the data), we employed a principal components analysis (PCA) calibrated with data over the entire range of possible climates. Then we projected both the total niche and the partial niches from single time frames into the PCA space, and tested if the partial niches were more similar to the total niche than random. Using an ensemble forecasting approach, we calibrated SDMs for each time frame and for the pooled database. We projected each model to current climate and evaluated the results against current pollen data. We also projected all models into the future. Results Niche similarity between the partial and the total-SDMs was almost always statistically significant and increased through time. SDMs calibrated from single time frames gave different results when projected to current climate, providing evidence of a change in the species realized niches through time. Moreover, they predicted limited climate suitability when compared with the total-SDMs. The same results were obtained when projected to future climates. Main conclusions The realized climatic niche of species differed for current and future climates when SDMs were calibrated considering different past climates. Building the niche as an ensemble through time represents a way forward to a better understanding of a species' range and its ecology in a changing climate.

Teaching Motivational Interviewing to Medical Students to Improve Behavior Change Counseling Skills - Results of a Pilot Test

BACKGROUND: Patient behavior accounts for half or more of the variance in health, disease, mortality and treatment outcome and costs. Counseling using motivational interviewing (MI) effectively improves the substance use and medical compliance behavior of patients. Medical training should include substantial focus on this key issue of health promotion. The objective of the study is to test the efficacy of teaching MI to medical students. METHODS: Thirteen fourth-year medical students volunteered to participate. Seven days before and after an 8-hour interactive MI training workshop, each student performed a video-recorded interview with two standardized patients: a 60 year-old alcohol dependent female consulting a primary care physician for the first time about fatigue and depression symptoms; and a 50 year-old male cigarette smoker hospitalized for myocardial infarction. All 52 videos (13 students×2 interviews before and after training) were independently coded by two blinded clinicians using the Motivational Interviewing Training Integrity (MITI, 3.0). MITI scores consist of global spirit (Evocation, Collaboration, Autonomy/Support), global Empathy and Direction, and behavior count summary scores (% Open questions, Reflection to question ratio, % Complex reflections, % MI-adherent behaviors). A "beginning proficiency" threshold (BPT) is defined for each of these 9 scores. The proportion of students reaching BPT before and after training was compared using McNemar exact tests. Inter-rater reliability was evaluated by comparing double coding, and test-retest analyses were conducted on a sub-sample of 10 consecutive interviews by each coder. Weighted Kappas were used for global rating scales and intra-class correlations (ICC) were computed for behavior count summary scores. RESULTS: The percent of counselors reaching BPT before and after MI training increased significantly for Evocation (15% to 65%, p<.001), Collaboration (27% to 77%, p=.001), Autonomy/Support (15% to 54%, p=.006), and % Open questions (4% to 38%, p=.004). Proportions increased, but were not statistically significant for Empathy (38% to 58%, p=.18), Reflection to question ratio (0% to 15%, p=.12), % Complex reflection (35% to 54%, p=.23), and % MI-adherent behaviors (8% to 15%, p=.69). There was virtually no change for the Direction scale (92% to 88%, p=1.00). The reliability analyses produced mixed results. Weighted kappas for inter-rater reliability ranged from .14 for Direction to .51 for Collaboration, and from .27 for Direction to .80 for Empathy for test-retest. ICCs ranged from .20 for Complex reflections to .89 for Open questions (inter-rater), and from .67 for Complex reflections to .99 for Reflection to question ratio (test-retest). CONCLUSION: This pilot study indicates that a single 8-hour training in motivational interviewing for voluntary fourth-year medical students results in significant improvement of some MI skills. A larger sample of randomly selected medical students observed over longer periods should be studied to test if MI training generalizes to medical students. Inter-rater reliability and test-retest findings indicate a need for caution when interpreting the present results, as well as for more intensive training to help appropriately capture more dimensions of the process in future studies.

El significado de las ocupaciones en las personas mayores-jóvenes: algunas tendencias

Con la llegada del nuevo paradigma del “envejecimiento activo” planteado por la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS, 2002), estamos asistiendo a una nueva manera de enfocar el progresivo envejecimiento de la población. Este enfoque trata de fomentar la consecución de una esperanza de vida saludable y libre de discapacidad, gracias a la promoción de políticas y programas cuyos objetivos principales se centran en la independencia y en la autonomía a lo largo del proceso de envejecimiento. Acorde con este enfoque pensamos que las ocupaciones significativas son una buena herramienta para mantener la autonomía de estas personas al fomentar la prevención y la promoción de su salud, motivo por el cual desarrollamos este estudio. Los objetivos principales del presente estudio son conocer y comprender que ocupaciones adquieren un significado y satisfacción personal en las personas mayores-jóvenes, que han concluido su etapa laboral, que cuentan con buena salud y condiciones psicofísicas favorables y que viven de manera autónoma en la comunidad, así como explorar también si se establece en estas personas alguna vinculación entre las actividades que eligen desarrollar en la actualidad con su perfil e historia ocupacional previa. Por último, este estudio pretende conocer el tipo de gestión que cada persona prefiere para llevar a cabo las actividades cotidianas que les son más significativas, a partir de los contextos en los que se inscribe. El marco teórico se desarrolla a partir de la conceptualización aportada por diversos autores sobre el envejecimiento activo y la ciencia de la ocupación. La metodología utilizada es de carácter cualitativo, enfocado desde un paradigma constructivista. Los resultados del estudio muestran que se inicia tímidamente un cambio de tendencias en la elección y el significado que las personas mayores-jóvenes atribuyen a sus ocupaciones. Muestran también que las ocupaciones elegidas como más significativas por estas personas mantienen una vinculación con las que ya realizaban con anterioridad a la jubilación, con su historia o perfil 6 ocupacional previo. Y finalmente demuestran que el tipo de gestión que eligen para efectuarlas influye en la elección del entorno donde las llevan a término.

Issue review : university revenue growth adjusted for inflation and enrollment change.

An examination of the historical revenues for Regents universities' general education budgets considering enrollment changes and inflation.

Iowa’s Bridge and Highway Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability Assessment Pilot, HEPN-707, 2015

The Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) is responsible for approximately 4,100 bridges and structures that are a part of the state’s primary highway system, which includes the Interstate, US, and Iowa highway routes. A pilot study was conducted for six bridges in two Iowa river basins—the Cedar River Basin and the South Skunk River Basin—to develop a methodology to evaluate their vulnerability to climate change and extreme weather. The six bridges had been either closed or severely stressed by record streamflow within the past seven years. An innovative methodology was developed to generate streamflow scenarios given climate change projections. The methodology selected appropriate rainfall projection data to feed into a streamflow model that generated continuous peak annual streamflow series for 1960 through 2100, which were used as input to PeakFQ to estimate return intervals for floods. The methodology evaluated the plausibility of rainfall projections and credibility of streamflow simulation while remaining consistent with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) protocol for estimating the return interval for floods. The results were conveyed in an innovative graph that combined historical and scenario-based design metrics for use in bridge vulnerability analysis and engineering design. The pilot results determined the annual peak streamflow response to climate change likely will be basin-size dependent, four of the six pilot study bridges would be exposed to increased frequency of extreme streamflow and would have higher frequency of overtopping, the proposed design for replacing the Interstate 35 bridges over the South Skunk River south of Ames, Iowa is resilient to climate change, and some Iowa DOT bridge design policies could be reviewed to consider incorporating climate change information.

Las TIC como instrumento para la colaboración en red, en el ámbito de la Formación Profesional: Una aplicación de Software Libre para colaboración entre centro-empresa en el I.E.S El Palau.

En la era digital actual, Internet forma parte de nuestras vidas, y ha aportado cambios a lasociedad globalizada. Algunos de estos cambios nos permiten nuevas formas de relacionarnos y degestionar el conocimiento, dando sentido al término que hoy entendemos como sociedad-red.Por eso, en el entorno que nos envuelve existen continuamente acciones colaborativas globales quefomentan la comunicación y se comparte información de diversos tipos, con la finalidad deaprender y mantenerse constantemente informado. Específicamente, los centros educativos no sequedan al margen ya que requiere preparar estudiantes para esta sociedad.Estos cambios en la sociedad presentan grandes desafíos para el centro educativo, que nopermiten ser afrontados solamente desde el aula. Los centros requieren adaptarse a un modelocompatible con la sociedad-red, y por ello, se sugieren un modelo centro-red, que presente unaestructura de una organización compatible con la era en el que estamos inmersos.Las redes de colaboración en los centros permite intercambiar información y aportar valor a laeducación con el objetivo de la mejora educativa. En este sentido, los centros educativos debendisponer de características que permitan ser flexibles, adaptarse a los agentes y organizaciones quele envuelven. Pero la estructura actual de un centro educativo es rígida y por tanto esta evoluciónrepresenta uno de los mayores desafíos para el sistema educativo.En esta linea, en los centros de Formación Profesional existe una tendencia hacia modeloscolaborativos con el tejido empresarial, entre otros agentes, y es en este punto donde este proyectopretende centrar el foco de la investigación. Con más exactitud, en la creación de una red decolaboración con el agente que el centro educativo seleccione.Específicamente las TIC forman un papel esencial, y se deben poner al servicio del problemaque apuntábamos para ayudar a solventarlo. En este sentido, es adecuado un diseño del artefactocon Software Libre que tiene múltiples beneficios para este objetivo, pero que destacamos el que ami parecer es el más importante; la vinculación con la filosofía de compartir el conocimiento, quegarantiza la simbiosis con la red colaborativa y es por esta razón que el tema de la investigación esrelevante para el centro educativo.Tal y como se mencionaba previamente, las TIC pueden ayudar a fomentar la red colaborativa,pero no sólo el artefacto TIC generado en este proyecto debe cumplir características como laflexibilidad, también es crítico que el centro educativo y los agentes de la red interioricen la culturacolaborativa en sus acciones con la implicación y compromiso que se requiere. Pero como podemosPágina 6Universitat Oberta de Catalunya Trabajo Final de Máster - Software Libreimaginar, ese cambio de cultura, no es una tarea sencilla y presenta problemas. Para mitigarlos yfomentar la cultura en red, se requieren procesos específicos que permitan incorporarla en la medidade lo posible. Para ello, la combinación de la innovación sistémica y el diseño de la investigación eneducación resultan metodologías apropiadas.Por eso, investigaremos durante este proceso cómo las redes de colaboración y el SoftwareLibre permiten adaptar el centro al entorno, cómo pueden ayudar al centro a potenciar la FormaciónProfesional y garantizar la durabilidad de las acciones, con el objetivo que perdure el conocimientoy la propia red de colaboración para una mejora educativa.

Implantación de un sistema VoIP basado en software libre con Asterisk

Este proyecto busca analizar, diseñar e implementar una nueva solución de telefonía para el Centro Social de Oficiales de la Policía Nacional contemplando la posibilidad de optar por una migración hacia un sistema VoIP bajo software libre con Asterisk. En consecuencia, se deben evaluar las tecnologías actuales buscando proveer nuevas funcionalidades en el servicio telefónico generando bajos costos en su implementación, funcionamiento y mantenimiento.

The IBO germination quantitative trait locus encodes a phosphatase 2C-related variant with a nonsynonymous amino acid change that interferes with abscisic acid signaling.

Natural genetic variation is crucial for adaptability of plants to different environments. Seed dormancy prevents precocious germination in unsuitable conditions and is an adaptation to a major macro-environmental parameter, the seasonal variation in temperature and day length. Here we report the isolation of IBO, a quantitative trait locus (QTL) that governs c. 30% of germination rate variance in an Arabidopsis recombinant inbred line (RIL) population derived from the parental accessions Eilenburg-0 (Eil-0) and Loch Ness-0 (Lc-0). IBO encodes an uncharacterized phosphatase 2C-related protein, but neither the Eil-0 nor the Lc-0 variant, which differ in a single amino acid, have any appreciable phosphatase activity in in vitro assays. However, we found that the amino acid change in the Lc-0 variant of the IBO protein confers reduced germination rate. Moreover, unlike the Eil-0 variant of the protein, the Lc-0 variant can interfere with the activity of the phosphatase 2C ABSCISIC ACID INSENSITIVE 1 in vitro. This suggests that the Lc-0 variant possibly interferes with abscisic acid signaling, a notion that is supported by physiological assays. Thus, we isolated an example of a QTL allele with a nonsynonymous amino acid change that might mediate local adaptation of seed germination timing.

Viticulture under climate change : understanding vulnerability and adaptive capacity of wineries and growers. A case study in El Penedès region, Catalonia

Climate change may pose challenges and opportunities to viticulture, and much research has focused in studying the likely impacts on grapes and wine production in different regions worldwide. This study assesses the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of the viticulture sector under changing climate conditions, based on a case study in El Penedès region, Catalonia. Farm assets, livelihood strategies, farmer-market interactions and climate changes perceptions are analysed through semi-structured interviews with different types of wineries and growers. Both types of actors are equally exposed to biophysical stressors but unevenly affected by socioeconomic changes. While wineries are vulnerable because of the current economic crisis and the lack of diversification of their work, which may affect their income or production, growers are mainly affected by the low prices of their products and the lack of fix contracts. These socioeconomic stressors strongly condition their capacity to adapt to climate change, meaning that growers prioritize their immediate income problems, rather than future socioeconomic or climate threats. Therefore, growers undertake reactive adaptation to climate changing conditions, mainly based on ancient knowledge, whilst wineries combine both reactive and anticipatory adaptation practices. These circumstances should be addressed in order to allow better anticipatory adaptation to be implemented, thus avoiding future climate threats.

Assessing farmers' vulnerability to climate change : a case study in Karnataka, India

In the context of observed climate change impacts and their effect on agriculture and crop production, this study intends to assess the vulnerability of rural livelihoods through a study case in Karnataka, India. The social approach of climate change vulnerability in this study case includes defining and exploring factors that determine farmers’ vulnerability in four villages. Key informant interviews, farmer workshops and structured household interviews were used for data collection. To analyse the data, we adapted and applied three vulnerability indices: Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI), LVI-IPCC and the Livelihood Effect Index (LEI), and used descriptive statistical methods. The data was analysed at two scales: whole sample-level and household level. The results from applying the indices for the whole-sample level show that this community's vulnerability to climate change is moderate, whereas the household-level results show that most of the households' vulnerability is high-very high, while 15 key drivers of vulnerability were identified. Results and limitations of the study are discussed under the rural livelihoods framework, in which the indices are based, allowing a better understanding of the social behaviouraltrends, as well as an holistic and integrated view of the climate change, agriculture, and livelihoods processes shaping vulnerability. We conclude that these indices, although a straightforward method to assess vulnerability, have limitations that could account for inaccuracies and inability to be standardised for benchmarking, therefore we stress the need for further research.

Implicaciones de derechos humanos en el tratado de libre comercio entre Colombia y la Unión Europea

[spa] Tras largas y complejas negociaciones, la Unión Europea celebró un acuerdo comercial con Colombia en 2010 que ha empezado a aplicarse provisionalmente el 1 de agosto de 2013. El artículo se centra en las relaciones entre Colombia y la Unión y analiza el impacto que dicho acuerdo pueda tener en el marco de las obligaciones de las partes de respetar los derechos humanos universalmente reconocidos, incluyendo derechos sociales y los derechos de los pueblos indígenas. De dicho análisis se deriva que la presencia de cláusulas democráticas o de derechos humanos en el Acuerdo es insuficiente, habida cuenta los antecedentes del SGP+ vigente hasta la entrada en vigor del nuevo acuerdo, mientras que algunos aspectos sustantivos del Acuerdo permiten augurar consecuencias negativas respecto de los sectores sociales más desfavorecidos en la República de Colombia.

Ultrasound evaluation of synovitis in RA: Correlation with clinical disease activity and sensitivity to change in an observational cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the correlation between clinical measures of disease activity and a ultrasound (US) scoring system for synovitis applied by many different ultrasonographers in a daily routine care setting within the Swiss registry for RA (SCQM) and further to determine the sensitivity to change of this US Score. METHODS: One hundred and eight Swiss rheumatologists were trained in performing the Swiss Sonography in Arthritis and Rheumatism (SONAR) score. US B-mode and Power Doppler (PwD) scores were correlated with DAS28 and compared between the clinical categories in a cross-sectional cohort of patients. In patients with a second US (longitudinal cohort), we investigated if change in US score correlated with change in DAS and evaluated the responsiveness of both methods. RESULTS: In the cross-sectional cohort with 536 patients, correlation between the B-mode score and DAS28 was significant but modest (Pearson coefficient r=0.41, P<0.0001). The same was true for the PwD score (r=0.41, P<0.0001). In the longitudinal cohort with 183 patients we also found a significant correlation between change in B-mode and in PwD score with change in DAS28 (r=0.54, P<0.0001 and r=0.46, P<0.0001, respectively). Both methods of evaluation (DAS and US) showed similar responsiveness according to standardized response mean (SRM). CONCLUSIONS: The SONAR Score is practicable and was applied by many rheumatologists in daily routine care after initial training. It demonstrates significant correlations with the degree of as well as change in disease activity as measured by DAS. On the level of the individual, the US score shows many discrepancies and overlapping results exist.

Cities, skills, and regional change

One approach to urban areas emphasizes the existence of certain immutable relationships, such as Zipf's or Gibrat's Law. An alternative view is that urban changereflects individual responses to changing tastes or technologies. This paper examinesalmost 200 years of regional change in the U.S. and finds that few, if any, growth relationships remain constant, including Gibrat's Law. Education does a reasonable jobof explaining urban resilience in recent decades, but does not seem to predict countygrowth a century ago. After reviewing this evidence, we present and estimate a simple model of regional change, where education increases the level of entrepreneurship.Human capital spillovers occur at the city level because skilled workers produce moreproduct varieties and thereby increase labor demand. We find that skills are associatedwith growth in productivity or entrepreneurship, not with growth in quality of life, atleast outside of the West. We also find that skills seem to have depressed housing supplygrowth in the West, but not in other regions, which supports the view that educatedresidents in that region have fought for tougher land-use controls. We also present evidence that skills have had a disproportionately large impact on unemployment duringthe current recession.

Sentence des juge et consuls de Paris, pour la forme des paiements des lettres et billets de change

[Acte. 1730-01-09. Paris]