Model reduction of stochastic groundwater flow and transport processes

This work presents a comprehensive methodology for the reduction of analytical or numerical stochastic models characterized by uncertain input parameters or boundary conditions. The technique, based on the Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) theory, represents a versatile solution to solve direct or inverse problems related to propagation of uncertainty. The potentiality of the methodology is assessed investigating different applicative contexts related to groundwater flow and transport scenarios, such as global sensitivity analysis, risk analysis and model calibration. This is achieved by implementing a numerical code, developed in the MATLAB environment, presented here in its main features and tested with literature examples. The procedure has been conceived under flexibility and efficiency criteria in order to ensure its adaptability to different fields of engineering; it has been applied to different case studies related to flow and transport in porous media. Each application is associated with innovative elements such as (i) new analytical formulations describing motion and displacement of non-Newtonian fluids in porous media, (ii) application of global sensitivity analysis to a high-complexity numerical model inspired by a real case of risk of radionuclide migration in the subsurface environment, and (iii) development of a novel sensitivity-based strategy for parameter calibration and experiment design in laboratory scale tracer transport.

"Filosofia dell'ineguaglianza" di Nikolaj Berdjaev

Il nostro lavoro è incentrato su Filosofia dell’ineguaglianza, acceso libello di filosofia sociale in forma epistolare, composto da Nikolaj Berdjaev all’inizio del 1918. Nelle quattordici veementi lettere che costituiscono l’opera, egli critica aspramente l’idea di eguaglianza sociale e metafisica propagandata dai rivoluzionari, schierandosi a favore dell’ineguaglianza gerarchica, da lui considerata l’unica garanzia della libertà e della statura teantropica dell’uomo. Abbiamo suddiviso la nostra indagine in tre parti: il primo capitolo è un’introduzione storico-filosofica al testo, in cui sono evidenziati i concetti fondamentali del pensiero del Nostro; nel secondo capitolo abbiamo messo in luce il legame tra lo “stile filosofico” di Berdjaev e la cultura religiosa a cui egli appartiene, riflettendo poi sui problemi traduttivi che ne derivano; in particolare ci siamo soffermati sull’aforisticità del suo pensiero e sullo spiccato afflato emotivo che pervade la sua esposizione. Infine, abbiamo incluso nel terzo capitolo la traduzione di quattro lettere (Sulla rivoluzione, Sui fondamenti ontologico-religiosi della socialità, Sullo Stato, Sul regno di Dio) e della postfazione aggiunta da Berdjaev a Berlino nel 1923, in occasione della pubblicazione del libro.

Dynamics of coastal aquifers: data-driven forecasting and risk analysis

This work is focused on the study of saltwater intrusion in coastal aquifers, and in particular on the realization of conceptual schemes to evaluate the risk associated with it. Saltwater intrusion depends on different natural and anthropic factors, both presenting a strong aleatory behaviour, that should be considered for an optimal management of the territory and water resources. Given the uncertainty of problem parameters, the risk associated with salinization needs to be cast in a probabilistic framework. On the basis of a widely adopted sharp interface formulation, key hydrogeological problem parameters are modeled as random variables, and global sensitivity analysis is used to determine their influence on the position of saltwater interface. The analyses presented in this work rely on an efficient model reduction technique, based on Polynomial Chaos Expansion, able to combine the best description of the model without great computational burden. When the assumptions of classical analytical models are not respected, and this occurs several times in the applications to real cases of study, as in the area analyzed in the present work, one can adopt data-driven techniques, based on the analysis of the data characterizing the system under study. It follows that a model can be defined on the basis of connections between the system state variables, with only a limited number of assumptions about the "physical" behaviour of the system.

Trends in Migrations of Refugees in Serbia

This project aimed to establish a comprehensive long-term projection of refugee migration trends in Serbia which would allow the different organisations engaged in caring for refugees to plan their work more effectively. Mr. Cvetkovic studied first the official records of numbers and origins of refugees and the various definitions used to describe refugees, exiled persons, etc., considering also the indication of nationality, i.e. Serb or Yugoslav, and the future intentions expressed by refugees. He concluded that more than three quarters of the total number of refugees in Serbia wish to remain in Serbia/Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, and only 20% wish to repatriate. He concludes that the situation in relation to the ethnic-national structure of Serbia is extremely complicated, even to the point of chaos. One certainty is that sooner or later a huge majority of the refugees in Serbia today will be granted full citizenship and will then participate in the choice of the political system and the dominant national values and institutions of the country. The experiences of the refugees, as well as of their fellow nationals in Serbia, make it relatively unlikely that they will make rational choices that could produce a balance between civil democracy and national totalitarianism. Insofar as overall political relations within Serbia and its Federation with Montenegro develop along democratic lines, the civic identity of Serbs (as opposed to their national/ethnic status) can be expected to become stronger, and the civil and national to become an integral part of thinking which does not represent a challenge to the democratic state. This would help ensure that the migratory movements of the Serbs and of other national and ethnic groups in the region are motivated by economic rather than political or ethnic reasons.

Eluding oblivion with smart stochastic selection of synaptic updates

The variables involved in the equations that describe realistic synaptic dynamics always vary in a limited range. Their boundedness makes the synapses forgetful, not for the mere passage of time, but because new experiences overwrite old memories. The forgetting rate depends on how many synapses are modified by each new experience: many changes means fast learning and fast forgetting, whereas few changes means slow learning and long memory retention. Reducing the average number of modified synapses can extend the memory span at the price of a reduced amount of information stored when a new experience is memorized. Every trick which allows to slow down the learning process in a smart way can improve the memory performance. We review some of the tricks that allow to elude fast forgetting (oblivion). They are based on the stochastic selection of the synapses whose modifications are actually consolidated following each new experience. In practice only a randomly selected, small fraction of the synapses eligible for an update are actually modified. This allows to acquire the amount of information necessary to retrieve the memory without compromising the retention of old experiences. The fraction of modified synapses can be further reduced in a smart way by changing synapses only when it is really necessary, i.e. when the post-synaptic neuron does not respond as desired. Finally we show that such a stochastic selection emerges naturally from spike driven synaptic dynamics which read noisy pre and post-synaptic neural activities. These activities can actually be generated by a chaotic system.

Il razzismo della prosperità nell’Europa contemporanea - Riflessioni a margine del pensiero antirazzista di Walter Lorenz

Recent publishing on the migration phenomena in the communitarian and globalized Europe, puts in evidence a fundamental racism which is capable of making cultural processes grow and feed both chaos and social disorder. As a matter of fact we are approaching the ending debates on multicultural citizenship as well as on solidary integration and antiracism. Since the appearing of these phenomena, namely the huge post colonial migration in the nineteen-eighties, by which the colonized countries became almost “emigrant nurseries”, one could expect their stabilization. On the contrary, globalization and migration (twin subjects) everywhere still produce, at various levels, social disturbances together with some chauvinistic limitations as an ultimate kind of western prosperity defense. The peculiar European features of this new racism, less than ideological (superiority, homogeneity and civilizing mission), are confined to the concepts of patriotism, inequality and exclusion. In these terms one can understand why the new economic expansionism and the quest for new world markets makes European policies unstable, which remain undecided between conservatism, liberalism and extreme right. All this explains at least two things: the existing ambiguities of some European policies aiming to enhance particular forms of protectionism, and the difficulties in which the antiracist thought seems to be embedded. Indeed, according to what Walter Lorenz has already made clear, by using a well founded methodology, which prevents any fruitless protestations, it is impossible to contrast racism and nationalism. In such context, the educational field should try to use an operative epistemology. In other words the antiracist thought should dispose of competences and skills and, especially, personal and reflective capabilities. All this in order to avoid that which, in different historical scenes, permit the revival of the sense of moral opprobrium could not be identified with the political alibi to maintain privileges as well as advantages for the exclusive benefit of wealthy countries.

Thermal and Barometric Constraints on the Intrusive and Unroofing History of the Black Mountains: Implications for Timing, Initial Dip, and Kinematics of Detachment Faulting in the Death-Valley Region, California

Unroofing of the Black Mountains, Death Valley, California, has resulted in the exposure of 1.7 Ga crystalline basement, late Precambrian amphibolite facies metasedimentary rocks, and a Tertiary magmatic complex. The Ar-40/Ar-39 cooling ages, obtained from samples collected across the entire length of the range (>55 km), combined with geobarometric results from synextensional intrusions, provide time-depth constraints on the Miocene intrusive history and extensional unroofing of the Black Mountains. Data from the southeastern Black Mountains and adjacent Greenwater Range suggest unroofing from shallow depths between 9 and 10 Ma. To the northwest in the crystalline core of the range, biotite plateau ages from approximately 13 to 6.8 Ma from rocks making up the Death Valley turtlebacks indicate a midcrustal residence (with temperatures >300-degrees-C) prior to extensional unroofing. Biotite Ar-40/Ar-39 ages from both Precambrian basement and Tertiary plutons reveal a diachronous cooling pattern of decreasing ages toward the northwest, subparallel to the regional extension direction. Diachronous cooling was accompanied by dike intrusion which also decreases in age toward the northwest. The cooling age pattern and geobarometric constraints in crystalline rocks of the Black Mountains suggest denudation of 10-15 km along a northwest directed detachment system, consistent with regional reconstructions of Tertiary extension and with unroofing of a northwest deepening crustal section. Mica cooling ages that deviate from the northwest younging trend are consistent with northwestward transport of rocks initially at shallower crustal levels onto deeper levels along splays of the detachment. The well-known Amargosa chaos and perhaps the Badwater turtleback are examples of this "splaying" process. Considering the current distance of the structurally deepest samples away from moderately to steeply east tilted Tertiary strata in the southeastern Black Mountains, these data indicate an average initial dip of the detachment system of the order of 20-degrees, similar to that determined for detachment faults in west central Arizona and southeastern California. Beginning with an initially listric geometry, a pattern of footwall unroofing accompanied by dike intrusion progress northwestward. This pattern may be explained by a model where migration of footwall flexures occur below a scoop-shaped banging wall block. One consequence of this model is that gently dipping ductile fabrics developed in the middle crust steepen in the upper crust during unloading. This process resolves the low initial dips obtained here with mapping which suggests transport of the upper plate on moderately to steeply dipping surfaces in the middle and upper crust.

Barry Saltzman and the Theory of Climate

Barry Saltzman was a giant in the fields of meteorology and climate science. A leading figure in the study of weather and climate for over 40 yr, he has frequently been referred to as the "father of modern climate theory." Ahead of his time in many ways, Saltzman made significant contributions to our understanding of the general circulation and spectral energetics budget of the atmosphere, as well as climate change across a wide spectrum of time scales. In his endeavor to develop a unified theory of how the climate system works, lie played a role in the development of energy balance models, statistical dynamical models, and paleoclimate dynamical models. He was a pioneer in developing meteorologically motivated dynamical systems, including the progenitor of Lorenz's famous chaos model. In applying his own dynamical-systems approach to long-term climate change, he recognized the potential for using atmospheric general circulation models in a complimentary way. In 1998, he was awarded the Carl-Gustaf Rossby medal, the highest honor of the American Meteorological Society "for his life-long contributions to the study of the global circulation and the evolution of the earth's climate." In this paper, the authors summarize and place into perspective some of the most significant contributions that Barry Saltzman made during his long and distinguished career. This short review also serves as an introduction to the papers in this special issue of the Journal of Climate dedicated to Barry's memory.

Relating in situ gas measurements to the surface outgassing properties of cometary nuclei

The sensitivity of the gas flow field to changes in different initial conditions has been studied for the case of a highly simplified cometary nucleus model. The nucleus model simulated a homogeneously outgassing sphere with a more active ring around an axis of symmetry. The varied initial conditions were the number density of the homogeneous region, the surface temperature, and the composition of the flow (varying amounts of H2O and CO2) from the active ring. The sensitivity analysis was performed using the Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) method. Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) was used for the flow, thereby allowing strong deviations from local thermal equilibrium. The PCE approach can be used to produce a sensitivity analysis with only four runs per modified input parameter and allows one to study and quantify non-linear responses of measurable parameters to linear changes in the input over a wide range. Hence the PCE allows one to obtain a functional relationship between the flow field properties at every point in the inner coma and the input conditions. It is for example shown that the velocity and the temperature of the background gas are not simply linear functions of the initial number density at the source. As probably expected, the main influence on the resulting flow field parameter is the corresponding initial parameter (i.e. the initial number density determines the background number density, the temperature of the surface determines the flow field temperature, etc.). However, the velocity of the flow field is also influenced by the surface temperature while the number density is not sensitive to the surface temperature at all in our model set-up. Another example is the change in the composition of the flow over the active area. Such changes can be seen in the velocity but again not in the number density. Although this study uses only a simple test case, we suggest that the approach, when applied to a real case in 3D, should assist in identifying the sensitivity of gas parameters measured in situ by, for example, the Rosetta spacecraft to the surface boundary conditions and vice versa.

Тоска по домашнему очагу: Мандельштам, архитектура и русский язык

Le poète Ossip Mandelstam a été habité toute sa vie par un sentiment d’exil et de déracinement dont les causes sont diverses (« chaos judaïque » de son enfance, déménagements incessants, expérience de catastrophes historiques, etc.) : son ralliement au mouvement acméiste peut se comprendre comme une tentative de lutter contre ce sentiment au niveau de l’imaginaire. Le programme acméiste, contrairement au mouvement symboliste qui déprécie les choses d’ici bas au profit d’une réalité transcendante, peut en effet se définir comme une tentative de rendre au monde une certaine matérialité et hospitalité. Dans ce contexte, Mandelstam privilégie le motif architectural, qui lui fournit de nombreuses images de l’abri, du logement et de la protection, tout particulièrement dans son recueil intitulé Pierre. Néanmoins, si les images architecturales convoquées par Mandelstam apaisent momentanément sa soif d’un foyer, elles ne sont pas suffisantes : le poète invoque encore le pouvoir et le statut ontologique particuliers de la langue russe, seule langue capable selon lui de retrouver l’âme des choses et de faire que le poète se sente chez soi dans le monde.

Die Ordnung des Theaters. Eine Soziologie der Regie

Die Theaterregie ist heute so entfesselt, der künstlerische Möglichkeitsraum so offen wie nie. Kreatives Chaos allenthalben? Nicht wirklich. Denis Hänzi untersucht, wie aus dem Wechselspiel von individuellen Arbeitsweisen und institutionellen Arrangements, alten Idealen und neuen Realitäten das Gefüge der deutschsprachigen Theaterlandschaft hervorgeht. Mit einer charismatheoretischen Erweiterung des Bourdieu'schen Habitus/Feld-Konzepts wird ein innovativer Ansatz zur Analyse gegenwärtiger Kunstwelten formuliert. Dass die »Ordnung des Theaters« zusehends Züge einer Erfolgskultur trägt, welche die männliche Dominanz im Regieberuf zu verfestigen scheint, ist einer von vielen erhellenden Befunden, die das Buch auch für Theaterschaffende und -interessierte spannend machen.

Der kaos : oder di letzṭe idiše hofnung ; fun'm rusiš idišen leben in der gegenwerṭiger tzaiṭ

fun M. un J. Milṭon