Cenários de impacto de uma eventual pandemia de gripe na população portuguesa : morbilidade, mortalidade e necessidade de cuidados de saúde

RESUMO - Introdução — O presente estudo descreve os cenários de impacto que uma eventual pandemia de gripe poderá ter na população portuguesa e nos serviços de saúde. Trata-se de uma versão actualizada dos cenários preliminares que têm vindo a ser elaborados e discutidos desde 2005. Material e métodos — Os cenários assumem que a pandemia ocorrerá em duas ondas das quais a primeira (taxa de ataque: 10%) será menos intensa do que a segunda (taxas de ataque: 20%, 25% ou 30%). Neste trabalho são descritos apenas os cenários respeitantes à situação mais grave (taxa de ataque global = 10% + 30%). A elaboração dos cenários utilizou o método proposto por Meltzer, M. I., Cox, N. J. e Fukuda, K. (1999) mas com quase todos os parâmetros adaptados à população portuguesa. Esta adaptação incidiu sobre: 1. duração da pandemia; 2. taxa de letalidade; 3. percentagem da população com risco elevado de complicações; 4. percentagem de doentes com suspeita de gripe que procurará consulta; 5. tempo entre o início dos sintomas e a procura de cuidados; 6. percentagem de doentes que terá acesso efectivo a antiviral; 7. taxa de hospitalização por gripe e tempo médio de hospitalização; 8. percentagem de doentes hospitalizados que necessitarão de cuidados intensivos (CI) e tempo de internamento em CI; 9. efectividade de oseltamivir para evitar complicações e morte. Resultados — Os cenários correspondentes à situação mais grave (taxa de ataque global: 10% + 30%) são apresentados sem qualquer intervenção e, também, com utilização de oseltamivir para fins terapêuticos. Os resultados sem intervenção para o cenário «provável» indicam: • número total de casos — 4 142 447; • número total de indivíduos a necessitar de consulta — 5 799 426; • número total de hospitalizações — 113 712; • número total de internamentos em cuidados intensivos — 17 057; • número total de óbitos — 32 051; • número total de óbitos, nas semanas com valor máximo — 1.a onda: 2551, 2.a onda: 7651. Quando os cenários foram simulados entrando em linha de conta com a utilização de oseltamivir (considerando uma efectividade de 10% e 30%), verificou-se uma redução dos valores dos óbitos e hospitalizações calculados. O presente artigo também apresenta a distribuição semanal, no período de desenvolvimento da pandemia, dos vários resultados obtidos. Discussão — Os resultados apresentados devem ser interpretados como «cenários» e não como «previsões». De facto, as incertezas existentes em relação à doença e ao seu agente não permitem prever com rigor suficiente os seus impactos sobre a população e sobre os serviços de saúde. Por isso, os cenários agora apresentados servem, sobretudo, para fins de planeamento. Assim, a preparação da resposta à eventual pandemia pode ser apoiada em valores cujas ordens de grandeza correspondem às situações de mais elevada gravidade. Desta forma, a sua utilização para outros fins é inadequada e é vivamente desencorajada pelos autores.

Crowdfunding

Crowdfunding, as we know it today, is a very recent activity that was born almost accidentally in the end of the 90’s decade. Due to the advent of the internet and the social networks, entrepreneurs are now able to promote their projects to a very large community. Whether it is composed by family, friends, acquaintances or simply people that are interested in the same topic or share the passion, the community is able to fund new ventures by individually investing modest amounts of money. In return, the entrepreneur can offer symbolic rewards, shares or other financial returns. New crowdfunding platforms are born almost every day all over the world, offering a new way of raising capital for their projects or a new way to invest their money in innovative ventures. Although crowdfunding is still finding its place in the financial services, successful cases such as Kickstarter demonstrate the power of the crowd in boosting creativity and productivity, financing thousands of projects by raising millions of dollars from thousands of investors. Due to regulatory restrictions, the most prominent model for now is reward-based crowdfunding, where the investors are prized with symbolic returns or privileged access to the products or services offered by the entrepreneurs. Other models such as peer-to-peer lending are also surging, allowing borrowers access to capital at a lower cost compared to so-called traditional financial institutions, and offering lenders a higher rate of return. But when it comes to offering shares to investors, i.e. using equity-based crowdfunding, entrepreneurs face regulatory obstacles in almost every country, where legislation was passed decades ago with the objective of promoting financially-capable ventures and protecting investors. Access to capital has become more difficult after the global economic recession of 2008, and for most countries it will not get easier in the near future, leaving start-ups and small enterprises with few options to start or expand their operations. In this study we attempt to answer the following research questions: how has equity-based crowdfunding evolved since its creation? Where and how has equity-based crowdfunding been implemented so far? What are the constraints and opportunities for implementing equity-crowdfunding in the world, and more particularly in Portugal? Finally, we will discuss the risks of crowdfunding and reflect on the future of this industry.

Finding the hidden influencers

This thesis is a first step in the search for the characteristics of funders, and the underlying motivation that drives them to participate in crowdfunding. The purpose of the study is to identify demographics and psychographics that influence a funder’s willingness to financially support a crowdfunding project (WFS). Crowdfunding, crowdsourcing and donation literature are combined to create a conceptual model in which age, gender, altruism and income, together with several control variables, are expected to have an influence on a funder’s WFS. Primary data collection was conducted using a survey, and a dataset of 175 potential crowdfunders was created. The data is analysed using a multiple regression and provided several interesting results. First of all, age and gender have a significant effect on WFS, males and young adults until the age of 30 have a higher intention to give money to crowdfunding projects. Second, altruism is significantly positively related to WFS, meaning that the funders do not just care about the potential rewards they could receive, but also about the benefits that they create for the entrepreneur and the people affected by the crowdfunding project. Third, the moderation effect of income was found to be insignificant in this model. It shows that income does not affect the strength of the relationship between the age, gender and altruism, and WFS. This study provides important theoretical contributions by, to the best of my knowledge, being the first study to quantitatively investigate the characteristics of funders and using the funder as the unit of analysis. Moreover, the study provides important insights for entrepreneurs who wish to target the crowd better in order to attract and retain more funders, thereby increasing the chance of success of their project.

Performance of a fly ash geopolymeric mortar for coating of ordinary portland cement concrete exposed to harsh chemical environments

Premature degradation of ordinary Portland cement (OPC) concrete infrastructures is a current and serious problem with overwhelming costs amounting to several trillion dollars. The use of concrete surface treatments with waterproofing materials to prevent the access of aggressive substances is an important way of enhancing concrete durability. The most common surface treatments use polymeric resins based on epoxy, silicone (siloxane), acrylics, polyurethanes or polymethacrylate. However, epoxy resins have low resistance to ultraviolet radiation while polyurethanes are sensitive to high alkalinity environments. Geopolymers constitute a group of materials with high resistance to chemical attack that could also be used for coating of concrete infrastructures exposed to harsh chemical environments. This article presents results of an experimental investigation on the resistance to chemical attack (by sulfuric and nitric acid) of several materials: OPC concrete, high performance concrete (HPC), epoxy resin, acrylic painting and a fly ash based geopolymeric mortar. Three types of acids, each with high concentrations of 10%, 20% and 30%, were used to simulate long term degradation by chemical attack. The results show that the epoxy resin had the best resistance to chemical attack, irrespective of the acid type and acid concentration.

Design of a case-based reasoner for information security in military organizations

Information security is concerned with the protection of information, which can be stored, processed or transmitted within critical information systems of the organizations, against loss of confidentiality, integrity or availability. Protection measures to prevent these problems result through the implementation of controls at several dimensions: technical, administrative or physical. A vital objective for military organizations is to ensure superiority in contexts of information warfare and competitive intelligence. Therefore, the problem of information security in military organizations has been a topic of intensive work at both national and transnational levels, and extensive conceptual and standardization work is being produced. A current effort is therefore to develop automated decision support systems to assist military decision makers, at different levels in the command chain, to provide suitable control measures that can effectively deal with potential attacks and, at the same time, prevent, detect and contain vulnerabilities targeted at their information systems. The concept and processes of the Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) methodology outstandingly resembles classical military processes and doctrine, in particular the analysis of “lessons learned” and definition of “modes of action”. Therefore, the present paper addresses the modeling and design of a CBR system with two key objectives: to support an effective response in context of information security for military organizations; to allow for scenario planning and analysis for training and auditing processes.

Otimização dos parâmetros de processamento em Laser Melting

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Mecânica

High strain rate constitutive modeling forhistorical structures subjected to blast loading

Doctoral Thesis Civil Engineering

Antimicrobial activity of bergenin from Endopleura uchi (Huber) Cuatrec

Endopleura uchi (Huber) Cuatrec. is an Amazon species traditionally used as treatment for inflammations and female disorders. Bergenin was isolated from ethyl acetate fraction of bark of E. uchi by using column chromatography over sephadex LH-20 and then silica gel 60 flash. Its structure was identified on the basis of its NMR spectra. The antimicrobial activity of bergenin and fractions of methanol extract of E. uchi were evaluated against ATCC microorganisms (Escherichia coli, Salmonella enteritidis, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Enterococcus faecalis, Staphylococcus aureus, Candida albicans, C. guilliermondii, Aspergillus flavus, A. nidulans). Clinically isolated strains of all of these microorganisms, along with C. tropicalis, A. niger, Shigella sonnei, Serratia marcenses and Klebsiella pneumoniae were also evaluated. The growth inhibition caused by bergenin, extracts and fractions of E. uchi against ATCC microorganisms were similar to the inhibition to microorganisms clinically isolated. The ethyl acetate fraction and the isolate bergenin inhibit the growth of the yeasts C. albicans, C. tropicalis, and C. guilliermondii, but present lower activity against filamentous fungi Aspergillus flavus, A. nidulans, A. niger, and did not inhibit the Gram positive and Gram negative bacteria. The activity of the ethyl acetate fraction and bergenin are in agreement wit its high concentration found in bark extract of E. uchi. Moreover, the selective activity against three Candida species helps to understand its traditional use against infections that affect women.

Interactions between carpenter bees and orchid bees (Hymenoptera: Apidae) in flowers of Bertholletia excelsa Bonpl. (Lecythidaceae)

Competition between two species of bees for the same type of floral resource may generate antagonistic behavior between them, especially in cultivated areas where food resources are limited, seasonally and locally. In this study, was tested the hypothesis of antagonism between two solitary bee species of the family Apidae, Eulaema mocsaryi (Euglossini) and Xylocopa frontalis (Xylocopini), visiting the Brazil nut flowers (Bertholletia excelsa: Lecythidaceae) in a central Amazonia agricultural area. The visitation time was analyzed to detect the possible temporal overlap in the foraging of these bees. Furthermore, was analyzed their interspecific interactions for manipulating flower species visited by an opponent species, as well as attempts to attack this opponent. The individuals of Xylocopa frontalis visited the Brazil nut flowers before Eulaema mocsaryi, although the peak visitation of both did not presented significant differences. Neither of the species manipulated flowers recently visited by opponent species, and there were practically no antagonistic interactions between them. Thus, X. frontalis and E. mocsaryi shared the same food source in the flowers of B. excelsa due to differences in their time of visits and non-aggressive way of interacting with the opponent. This result has important implications for pollinating the Brazil nut, and a possible management of X. frontalis and E. mocsaryi, since these two were the most abundant pollinators in the studied locality.

Predation of bat (Molossus molossus: Molossidae) by the centipede Scolopendra viridicornis (Scolopendridae) in Southern Amazonia

Centipedes are opportunistic carnivore predators, and large species can feed on a wide variety of vertebrates, including bats. The aim of this study was to report the third record of bat predation by centipedes worldwide, the first record in the Amazon region, while covering aspects of foraging, capture and handling of prey. We observed the occurence in a fortuitous encounter at Cristalino State Park, located in the Amazon region of the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil. The attack took place in a small wooden structure, at about three meters from the floor, and was observed for 20 minutes. During the observation, the centipede stung the neck and abdominal region of the bat several times, grabbing the prey with its 15 pairs of front legs while hanging from the ceiling with its hind legs. This type of observation suggests that vertebrates can be important preys for invertebrates such as giant centipedes, both for its nutritional composition and for the amount of energy available in a single prey.

An experimental investigation on nano-TiO2 and fly ash based high performance concrete

High performance concrete (HPC) offers several advantages over normal-strength concrete, namely, high mechanical strength and high durability. Therefore, HPC allows for concrete structures with less steel reinforcement and a longer service life, both of which are crucial issues in the eco-efficiency of construction materials. Nevertheless international publications on the field of concrete containing nanoparticles are scarce when compared to Portland cement concrete (around 1%) of the total international publications. HPC nanoparticle-based publications are even scarcer. This article presents the results of an experimental investigation on the mechanical properties and durability of HPC based on nano-TiO2 and fly ash. The durability performance was assessed by means of water absorption by immersion, water absorption by capillarity, ultrasonic pulse velocity, electric resistivity, chloride diffusion and resistance to sulphuric acid attack. The results show that the concretes containing an increased content of nano-TiO2 show decreased durability performance. The results also show that concrete with 1% nano-TiO2 and 30% fly ash as Portland cement replacement show a high mechanical strength (C55/C67) and a high durability. However, it should be noted that the cost of nano-TiO2 is responsible for a severe increase in the cost of concrete mixtures.

Implementação de sistemas de encriptação AES advanced encryption standard em hardware para segurança

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Electrónica Industrial e Computadores

Crowdfunding e resiliência das comunidades: estudo de caso

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia e Gestão de Sistemas de Informação

Elaboration et caractérisation des nanocristaux de Zn F O enfouis 1-x x dans des diélectriques pour des applications en spin-électronique

Tese de Doutoramento em Ciências - Especialidade em Física

Selfie: a força comunicacional do autorretrato que as redes sociais reinventaram

Dissertação de mestrado em Ciências da Comunicação (área de especialização em Informação e Jornalismo)