Detecção e diagnóstico de falhas não-supervisionados baseados em estimativa de densidade recursiva e classificador fuzzy auto-evolutivo

In this work, we propose a two-stage algorithm for real-time fault detection and identification of industrial plants. Our proposal is based on the analysis of selected features using recursive density estimation and a new evolving classifier algorithm. More specifically, the proposed approach for the detection stage is based on the concept of density in the data space, which is not the same as probability density function, but is a very useful measure for abnormality/outliers detection. This density can be expressed by a Cauchy function and can be calculated recursively, which makes it memory and computational power efficient and, therefore, suitable for on-line applications. The identification/diagnosis stage is based on a self-developing (evolving) fuzzy rule-based classifier system proposed in this work, called AutoClass. An important property of AutoClass is that it can start learning from scratch". Not only do the fuzzy rules not need to be prespecified, but neither do the number of classes for AutoClass (the number may grow, with new class labels being added by the on-line learning process), in a fully unsupervised manner. In the event that an initial rule base exists, AutoClass can evolve/develop it further based on the newly arrived faulty state data. In order to validate our proposal, we present experimental results from a level control didactic process, where control and error signals are used as features for the fault detection and identification systems, but the approach is generic and the number of features can be significant due to the computationally lean methodology, since covariance or more complex calculations, as well as storage of old data, are not required. The obtained results are significantly better than the traditional approaches used for comparison

A teoria da ruína aplicada em um modelo de empresa financeira com risco de crédito

In this work we study a new risk model for a firm which is sensitive to its credit quality, proposed by Yang(2003): Are obtained recursive equations for finite time ruin probability and distribution of ruin time and Volterra type integral equation systems for ultimate ruin probability, severity of ruin and distribution of surplus before and after ruin

Estimativa de expoentes críticos em Percolação

In Percolation Theory, functions like the probability that a given site belongs to the infinite cluster, average size of clusters, etc. are described through power laws and critical exponents. This dissertation uses a method called Finite Size Scaling to provide a estimative of those exponents. The dissertation is divided in four parts. The first one briefly presents the main results for Site Percolation Theory for d = 2 dimension. Besides, some important quantities for the determination of the critical exponents and for the phase transistions understanding are defined. The second shows an introduction to the fractal concept, dimension and classification. Concluded the base of our study, in the third part the Scale Theory is mentioned, wich relates critical exponents and the quantities described in Chapter 2. In the last part, through the Finite Size Scaling method, we determine the critical exponents fi and. Based on them, we used the previous Chapter scale relations in order to determine the remaining critical exponents

Modelo de risco controlado por resseguro e desigualdades para a probabilidade de ruína

In the work reported here we present theoretical and numerical results about a Risk Model with Interest Rate and Proportional Reinsurance based on the article Inequalities for the ruin probability in a controlled discrete-time risk process by Ros ario Romera and Maikol Diasparra (see [5]). Recursive and integral equations as well as upper bounds for the Ruin Probability are given considering three di erent approaches, namely, classical Lundberg inequality, Inductive approach and Martingale approach. Density estimation techniques (non-parametrics) are used to derive upper bounds for the Ruin Probability and the algorithms used in the simulation are presented

Modelo de risco com dependência entre os valores das indenizações e seus intervalos entre ocorrências

We present a dependent risk model to describe the surplus of an insurance portfolio, based on the article "A ruin model with dependence between claim sizes and claim intervals"(Albrecher and Boxma [1]). An exact expression for the Laplace transform of the survival function of the surplus is derived. The results obtained are illustrated by several numerical examples and the case when we ignore the dependence structure present in the model is investigated. For the phase type claim sizes, we study by the survival probability, considering this is a class of distributions computationally tractable and more general

Soroprevalência de vírus linfotrópico de células T humanas, vírus da imunodeficiência humana, sífilis e toxoplasmose em gestantes de Botucatu - São Paulo - Brasil: fatores de risco para vírus linfotrópico de células T humanas

Com o objetivo de estudar a soroprevalência de vírus linfotrópico de células T humanas I/II (HTLV-I/II), vírus da imunodeficiência humana, sífilis e toxoplasmose, em gestantes atendidas em unidade básicas de saúde do município de Botucatu - São Paulo - Brasil, bem como os fatores de risco para a infecção pelo HTLV -I/II, foram realizados inquérito sorológico e avaliação dos resultados de exames solicitados na rotina do prénatal. em 913 gestantes, a soroprevalência de HTLV- I e de HTLV- II foi de 0,1%. Sífilis, toxoplasmose e infecção pelo HIV foram encontradas. Nenhum dos fatores de risco pesquisados mostrou-se seguro para identificar gestantes com infecção pelo HTLV- I/II. A comparação da proporção de gestantes infectadas e de doadores de sangue da região sudeste do Brasil com testes reagentes para HTLV- I/II não mostrou diferença estatística.

Análise de risco à erosão costeira na região de Tibau do Sul/RN através de mapeamento geoambiental e análise morfodinâmica

The research area is located on the county of Tibau do Sul, in the east coast of Rio Grande do Norte State, about 80km south of the capital Natal. The tourism represents the main income activity and Pipa beach is the most visited beach in the city, annually receives a large influx of domestic and foreign tourists. Some recent studies have reported the occurrence of coastal erosion in this littoral, being the main objective of the research, analyze the existing coastal erosion, through two methodologies, the geoenvironmental mapping and beach morphodynamics. The geoenvironmental mapping was done from oblique aerial photographs and field visits, which sought to carry out first the geomorphological mapping, with the purpose of analyzing features that suggest susceptible areas to erosion, as areas without protection of natural dunes, marine terraces, or sandstones (beach-rocks and ferruginous sandstones), areas with the presence of gullies and stretches where the sea-cliffs were in direct contact with the action of the sea, representing the beginning of the beach profile. In the morphodynamic study sought to carry out the survey of the physical and morphological characteristics, the analysis of sediment grain of the beaches and finally the analysis of the morphodynamic parameters to generate a table of risk to erosion by sector of the beach. The morphodynamic parameters were defined by the methodology proposed by Short (2006), in which considers different patterns of dynamism on beaches with characteristics favorable and unfavorable to erosive profiles. The maps indicated different levels of risk to the segments of the beaches analyzed, suggesting risk to erosion low and low to moderate only in areas north and northwest of the beaches of Madeiro and Curral, and levels of moderate and high risk sectors in the south and southeast of these beaches . The beach of Pipa showed moderate levels of risk and moderate to high at the ends and high risk to erosion in the central portion. The study of the coastal environment, its morphological evolution, and areas with problems of erosion, are of fundamental importance to assist coastal management policies, giving grants for planning activities undertaken in these regions

Estimativa de espessura crustal na Província Borborema (NE/Brasil) através de função do recpetor

Crustal thickness and VP/VS estimates are essential to the studies of subsurface geological structures and also to the understanding of the regional tectonic evolution of a given area. In this dissertation, we use the Langston´s (1979) Receiver Function Method using teleseismic events reaching the seismographic station with angles close to the vertical. In this method, the information of the geologic structures close to the station is isolated so that effects related to the instrument response and source mechanics are not present. The resulting time series obtained after the deconvolution between horizontal components contains the larger amplitude referring to the P arrival, followed by smaller arrival caused by the reverberation and conversion of the P-wave at the base of the crust. We also used the HK-Stacking after Zhu & Kanamori (2000) to obtain crustal thickness and Vp/VS estimates. This method works stacking receiver functions so that the best estimates of crustal thickness and Vp/VS are found when the direct P, the Ps wave and the first multiple are coherently stacked. We used five broadband seismographic stations distributed over the Borborema Province, NE Brazil. Crustal thickness and Vp/VS estimates are consistent with the crust-mantle interface obtained using gravity data. We also identified crutal thickening in the NW portion of the province, close to Sobral/CE. Towards the center-north portion of the province, there is an evident crustal thinning which coincides with a geological feature consisting of an alignment of sedimentary basins known as the Cariris-Potiguar trend. Towards the NE portion of the province, in Solânea/PB and Agrestina/PE regions, occurs a crustal thickening and a systematic increase in the VP/VS values which suggest the presence of mafic rocks in the lower crust also consistent with the hypothesis of underplating in the region

Aplicação de sensoriamento remoto e sistema de informação geográfica na determinação da vulnerabilidade natural e ambeintal do Município de Guamaré(RN): simulação de risco às atividades da indústria petrolífera

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior

Tectônica rúptil e sismicidade na área de inundação do açude do Castamhão (CE): implicações para o risco sísmico

This study describes brittle deformation and seismicity in the Castanhão Dam region, Ceará State, Brazil. This reservoir will include a hidroeletric power plant and will store about 6,7 billions m3 of water. Five main litostratigraphic unit were identified in the region: gneissic-migmatitic basement, metavolcanosedimentary sequence, granitoid plutons of Brasiliano age, Mesozoic basaltic dike swarm, and Cenozoic fluvial terraces of the Jaguaribe river. The region has experienced several faulting events that occurred at different crustal levels. Faults formed at depths less than about 12 km present left-lateral movement and are associated with epidote and quartz infillings. Faults formed at depths less than 7 km are mainly strike-slip present cataclastic rocks, fault breccia and gouge. Both fault groups form mainly NE-trendind lineaments and represent reactivation of ductile shear zones or new formed faults that cut across existing structures. Seismically-induced liquefaction fractures take place in Cenozoic terraces and indicate paleoearthquakes that may have reached at leat 6,8 MS. In short, this work indicate that the level of paleoseismicity is much greater than one observed in the instrumental record. Several faults are favourably oriented for reactivation and induced seismicity should be expected after the Castanhão Dam impoudment

Tabagismo associado a outros fatores comportamentais de risco de doenças e agravos crônicos não transmissíveis

Foram entrevistados via ligação telefônica 1.410 indivíduos, amostra aleatória e representativa da população acima de 18 anos residente em domicílios conectados à rede de telefonia fixa. A prevalência de tabagismo foi de 21,8%, maior em homens (25%) e em indivíduos na faixa entre 18 e 29 anos. Tabagismo e sedentarismo juntos ocorrem em 13,9% dos homens e 14,2% das mulheres; tabagismo e baixo consumo de frutas em 12,9% dos homens e 12,3% das mulheres; e tabagismo e baixo consumo de legumes em 5,8% dos homens e 5,1% das mulheres. A associação de tabagismo e consumo excessivo de álcool foi observada apenas nos homens (em 3,5% deles) e, da mesma forma que verificada para tabagismo isoladamente, sua ocorrência concomitante a outros fatores comportamentais de risco de doenças e agravos crônicos não transmissíveis (DANT) associou-se inversamente à escolaridade. Os dados apontam indícios de efeito de aglomeração entre tabagismo e sedentarismo, tabagismo e álcool em excesso, tabagismo e dieta inadequada, justificando intervenções focadas na prevenção e redução concomitante dos principais fatores comportamentais de risco de DANT.

Hábitos de saúde e fatores de risco em pacientes hipertensos

Os objetivos deste estudo foram realizar um levantamento dos hábitos de saúde relacionados aos fatores de risco em indivíduos hipertensos hospitalizados e identificar o conhecimento dessa clientela quanto à importância do controle desses fatores para a hipertensão arterial. Foram entrevistados 32 hipertensos que se encontravam hospitalizados em uma unidade de internação clínica de um hospital escola. Apesar de a clientela referir que controlava alguns dos fatores de risco para a hipertensão arterial e de saber da importância desse controle, a elevação da pressão arterial manteve-se mesmo durante a hospitalização, e a maioria, tinha comprometimento de órgãos-alvo. Há a necessidade de buscarmos medidas educativas que conduzam às mudanças no estilo de vida dessas pessoas para que haja o controle dos fatores de risco e da evolução da doença.

Alteração de flora vaginal em gestantes de baixo risco, atendidas em serviço público de saúde: prevalência e associação à sintomatologia e achados do exame ginecológico

Objetivou-se identificar a prevalência das alterações de flora vaginal em gestantes de baixo risco, sua associação à sintomatologia referida e exame ginecológico. É estudo quantitativo, descritivo e transversal, desenvolvido no serviço público de atenção básica de Botucatu, SP, no período de 2006 a 2008, com 289 gestantes, amostradas de forma estratificada por unidade. Realizou-se exame do conteúdo vaginal, utilizando-se coloração pelo método de Gram e pesquisa de Trichomonas vaginalis em meio líquido de Diamond. Desconsiderando-se as associações, a prevalência de flora vaginal alterada foi de 49,5%, sendo as mais frequentes: vaginose bacteriana (20,7%), candidíase vaginal (11,8%) e flora intermediária (11,1%). Os dados apontam elevada prevalência das alterações de flora vaginal, com pouca associação à sintomatologia, mas associação com achados do exame ginecológico. Considerando-se as repercussões maternas e perinatais indesejáveis e a prática laboratorial exequível, sugere-se o estabelecimento de rotina para diagnóstico das alterações de flora vaginal em gestantes de baixo risco.

Avaliação da atenção ao recém-nascido de risco, na perspectiva de uma política pública de saúde

Objetivou-se avaliar a atenção à saúde de recém-nascidos de risco, acompanhados no primeiro ano de vida pelo Programa Crescer Feliz, desenvolvido em município do interior paulista. Trata-se de estudo epidemiológico populacional, do tipo avaliação de programa de saúde, que se baseou, para análise dos dados, nas diretrizes nacionais da Agenda de Compromissos da Criança. Os resultados evidenciaram a vulnerabilidade institucional do programa, decorrente de problemas relacionados à estrutura e processo, com implicações nos resultados. Considerando a adequação dos critérios adotados pelo programa, para definição dos recém-nascidos de risco e das intervenções e estratégias propostas, que se mostram em consonância com a Agenda de Compromissos, aponta-se a necessidade dos gestores priorizá-lo, inserindo-o, efetivamente, na política pública de saúde a ser desenvolvida no âmbito do município, para reversão da vulnerabilidade institucional identificada.

Estimativa da profundidade do embasamento na bacia potiguar usando inversão gravimétrica

The gravity inversion method is a mathematic process that can be used to estimate the basement relief of a sedimentary basin. However, the inverse problem in potential-field methods has neither a unique nor a stable solution, so additional information (other than gravity measurements) must be supplied by the interpreter to transform this problem into a well-posed one. This dissertation presents the application of a gravity inversion method to estimate the basement relief of the onshore Potiguar Basin. The density contrast between sediments and basament is assumed to be known and constant. The proposed methodology consists of discretizing the sedimentary layer into a grid of rectangular juxtaposed prisms whose thicknesses correspond to the depth to basement which is the parameter to be estimated. To stabilize the inversion I introduce constraints in accordance with the known geologic information. The method minimizes an objective function of the model that requires not only the model to be smooth and close to the seismic-derived model, which is used as a reference model, but also to honor well-log constraints. The latter are introduced through the use of logarithmic barrier terms in the objective function. The inversion process was applied in order to simulate different phases during the exploration development of a basin. The methodology consisted in applying the gravity inversion in distinct scenarios: the first one used only gravity data and a plain reference model; the second scenario was divided in two cases, we incorporated either borehole logs information or seismic model into the process. Finally I incorporated the basement depth generated by seismic interpretation into the inversion as a reference model and imposed depth constraint from boreholes using the primal logarithmic barrier method. As a result, the estimation of the basement relief in every scenario has satisfactorily reproduced the basin framework, and the incorporation of the constraints led to improve depth basement definition. The joint use of surface gravity data, seismic imaging and borehole logging information makes the process more robust and allows an improvement in the estimate, providing a result closer to the actual basement relief. In addition, I would like to remark that the result obtained in the first scenario already has provided a very coherent basement relief when compared to the known basin framework. This is significant information, when comparing the differences in the costs and environment impact related to gravimetric and seismic surveys and also the well drillings