801 resultados para empirical trade studies
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Franchising is an important form of organizational control. Possible benefits of franchising include its ability to reduce agency costs that increase with costly monitoring, and provide incentives for the use of local information by onsite managers. However, these benefits may come at a cost, as franchisees may reduce quality by choosing to free ride. While many studies have investigated the reasons for franchising, few studies have documented the impacts of franchising on unit level operating performance. Using time-series data from a number of lodging properties that were converted to franchisee control from company control, this study documents the performance impacts of franchising. The analysis reveals that conversion results in a modest decline in financial performance and an immediate sharp decline in quality.
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Given the potentially demanding nature of teaching, efforts are underway to develop practices that can improve the wellbeing of educators, including interventions based on mindfulness meditation. We performed systematic review of empirical studies featuring analyses of mindfulness in teaching contexts. Databases were reviewed from the start of records to January 2016. Eligibility criteria included empirical analyses of mindfulness and wellbeing outcomes acquired in relation to practice. A total of 19 papers met the eligibility criteria and were included in the systematic review, consisting of a total 1,981 participants. Studies were principally examined for outcomes such as burnout, anxiety, depression and stress, as well as more positive wellbeing measures (e.g., life satisfaction). The systematic review revealed that mindfulness was generally associated with positive outcomes in relation to most measures. However, the quality of the studies was inconsistent, and so further research is needed, particularly involving high-quality randomised control trials.
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Purpose – In the field of humanitarianism, cluster thinking has been suggested as a solution to the lack of coordinated disaster response. Clusters for diverse functions, including sheltering, logistics and water and sanitation, can be viewed as an effort to achieve functional coordination. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to a greater understanding of the potential of cluster concepts using supply chain coordination and inter‐cluster coordination. The focus is on the conceptual level rather than on specific means of coordination. Design/methodology/approach – The cluster concept in humanitarian relief, along with some key empirical issues, is based on a case study. The concept is then compared to the literature on clusters and coordination in order to develop a theoretical framework with propositions on the tradeoffs between different types of coordination. Findings – The results provide important reflections on one of the major trends in contemporary development of humanitarian logistics. This paper shows that there is a tradeoff between different types of coordination, with horizontal coordination inside cluster drawing attention away from important issues of the supply chain as well as the need to coordinate among the clusters. Research limitations/implications – There is a need for more in‐depth case studies of experiences with clusters in various operations. Various perspectives should be taken into account, including the field, responding agencies, beneficiaries, donors, military and commercial service providers, both during and between disasters. Practical implications – The paper presents the tradeoffs between different types of coordination, in which basic aims such as standardisation through functional coordination, must be balanced with cross‐functional and vertical coordination in order to more successfully serve the users' composite needs. Originality/value – The focus on possible trade‐offs between different types of coordination is an important complement to the literature, which often assumes simultaneous high degrees of horizontal and vertical coordination.
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With the proliferation of Internet, online shopping has become an increasingly essential part of global economy and thus, increasingly important field of research. While the internationalization process of a company has for long been in the focus of academic research, internationalization of e-commerce is a much newer field of study. The earlier empirical research has amply pointed out the difficulties of traditional internationalization models to explain the internationalization process of e-commerce companies. Conversely, business networks have been argued to play a major role in the e-commerce internationalization. The purpose of this study is to study how business networks influence the internationalization process of e-commerce companies. Conducted as a case study, this research studies the internationalization process of two Finnish e-commerce companies, Hong Kong and Hifi Studio, into possibly one of the most booming online markets - Russia. The empirical findings of the study concur with the earlier literature. The observed internationalization process differs from the assumptions of traditional international business models, and business networks are found influential for the process. However, the behavior of the two studied organizations is observed more independent than the network view to internationalization presumes. The trigger to internationalize rises from within the organizations and market potential is the primary explanation for selection of target markets. No network relationships were found to have an effect on foreign market selection, nor selection of mode of operations. This study indicates that exploring foreign markets is actually about investing in specific relationships within a business network, rather than overcoming economic, institutional, and cultural barriers. Companies utilize a wide array of relationships in their internationalization process and may effectively overcome disadvantages of operating in a foreign market by adopting partnerships with correct partners. However, building and maintaining operational business relationships is a demanding process, and organizations should prefer quality over quantity in their partner selection. Moreover, relationships where the focal party possess significant influence and leverage over other actor should be favored. Lastly, relationships need to be continuously evaluated and assessed in comparison with strategic business goals. Ultimately, e-commerce can be considered a new, low-risk, cost-effective, and relationship-oriented internationalization method, suitable especially in volatile market conditions as Russia today. This revolutionary new mode of international business activity calls for more profound focus of business managers and academia alike, as its weight on global trade continues to grow.
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Problem This dissertation presents a literature-based framework for communication in science (with the elements partners, purposes, message, and channel), which it then applies in and amends through an empirical study of how geoscientists use two social computing technologies (SCTs), blogging and Twitter (both general use and tweeting from conferences). How are these technologies used and what value do scientists derive from them? Method The empirical part used a two-pronged qualitative study, using (1) purposive samples of ~400 blog posts and ~1000 tweets and (2) a purposive sample of 8 geoscientist interviews. Blog posts, tweets, and interviews were coded using the framework, adding new codes as needed. The results were aggregated into 8 geoscientist case studies, and general patterns were derived through cross-case analysis. Results A detailed picture of how geoscientists use blogs and twitter emerged, including a number of new functions not served by traditional channels. Some highlights: Geoscientists use SCTs for communication among themselves as well as with the public. Blogs serve persuasion and personal knowledge management; Twitter often amplifies the signal of traditional communications such as journal articles. Blogs include tutorials for peers, reviews of basic science concepts, and book reviews. Twitter includes links to readings, requests for assistance, and discussions of politics and religion. Twitter at conferences provides live coverage of sessions. Conclusions Both blogs and Twitter are routine parts of scientists' communication toolbox, blogs for in-depth, well-prepared essays, Twitter for faster and broader interactions. Both have important roles in supporting community building, mentoring, and learning and teaching. The Framework of Communication in Science was a useful tool in studying these two SCTs in this domain. The results should encourage science administrators to facilitate SCT use of scientists in their organization and information providers to search SCT documents as an important source of information.
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This dissertation explores why some states consistently secure food imports at prices higher than the world market price, thereby exacerbating food insecurity domestically. I challenge the idea that free market economics alone can explain these trade behaviors, and instead argue that states take into account political considerations when engaging in food trade that results in inefficient trade. In particular, states that are dependent on imports of staple food products, like cereals, are wary of the potential strategic value of these goods to exporters. I argue that this consideration, combined with the importing state’s ability to mitigate that risk through its own forms of political or economic leverage, will shape the behavior of the importing state and contribute to its potential for food security. In addition to cross-national analyses, I use case studies of the Gulf Cooperation Council states and Jordan to demonstrate how the political tools available to these importers affect their food security. The results of my analyses suggest that when import dependent states have access to forms of political leverage, they are more likely to trade efficiently, thereby increasing their potential for food security.
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The financial crisis of 2007-2008 led to extraordinary government intervention in firms and markets. The scope and depth of government action rivaled that of the Great Depression. Many traded markets experienced dramatic declines in liquidity leading to the existence of conditions normally assumed to be promptly removed via the actions of profit seeking arbitrageurs. These extreme events motivate the three essays in this work. The first essay seeks and fails to find evidence of investor behavior consistent with the broad 'Too Big To Fail' policies enacted during the crisis by government agents. Only in limited circumstances, where government guarantees such as deposit insurance or U.S. Treasury lending lines already existed, did investors impart a premium to the debt security prices of firms under stress. The second essay introduces the Inflation Indexed Swap Basis (IIS Basis) in examining the large differences between cash and derivative markets based upon future U.S. inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). It reports the consistent positive value of this measure as well as the very large positive values it reached in the fourth quarter of 2008 after Lehman Brothers went bankrupt. It concludes that the IIS Basis continues to exist due to limitations in market liquidity and hedging alternatives. The third essay explores the methodology of performing debt based event studies utilizing credit default swaps (CDS). It provides practical implementation advice to researchers to address limited source data and/or small target firm sample size.
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In the present paper, we discuss the time before the “age of reports”. Besides the Coleman Report in the period of Coleman, the Lady Plowden Report also appeared, while there were important studies in France (Bourdieu & Passeron, 1964; Peyre, 1959) and studies that inaugurated comprehensive education in Nordic countries. We focus on the period after the World War II, which was marked by rising economic nationalism, on the one hand, and by the second wave of mass education, on the other, bearing the promise of more equality and a reduction of several social inequalities, both supposed to be ensured by school. It was a period of great expectations related to the power of education and the rise of educational meritocracy. On this background, in the second part of the paper, the authors attempt to explore the phenomenon of the aforementioned reports, which significantly questioned the power of education and, at the same time, enabled the formation of evidence-based education policies. In this part of the paper, the central place is devoted to the case of socialist Yugoslavia/Slovenia and its striving for more equality and equity through education. Through the socialist ideology of more education for all, socialist Yugoslavia, with its exaggerated stress on the unified school and its overemphasised belief in simple equality, overstepped the line between relying on comprehensive education as an important mechanism for increasing the possibility of more equal and just education, on the one hand, and the myth of the almighty unified school capable of eradicating social inequalities, especially class inequalities, on the other. With this radical approach to the reduction of inequalities, socialist policy in the then Yugoslavia paradoxically reduced the opportunity for greater equality, and even more so for more equitable education. (DIPF/Orig.)
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International audience
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My thesis consists of three essays that investigate strategic interactions between individuals engaging in risky collective action in uncertain environments. The first essay analyzes a broad class of incomplete information coordination games with a wide range of applications in economics and politics. The second essay draws from the general model developed in the first essay to study decisions by individuals of whether to engage in protest/revolution/coup/strike. The final essay explicitly integrates state response to the analysis. The first essay, Coordination Games with Strategic Delegation of Pivotality, exhaustively analyzes a class of binary action, two-player coordination games in which players receive stochastic payoffs only if both players take a ``stochastic-coordination action''. Players receive conditionally-independent noisy private signals about the normally distributed stochastic payoffs. With this structure, each player can exploit the information contained in the other player's action only when he takes the “pivotalizing action”. This feature has two consequences: (1) When the fear of miscoordination is not too large, in order to utilize the other player's information, each player takes the “pivotalizing action” more often than he would based solely on his private information, and (2) best responses feature both strategic complementarities and strategic substitutes, implying that the game is not supermodular nor a typical global game. This class of games has applications in a wide range of economic and political phenomena, including war and peace, protest/revolution/coup/ strike, interest groups lobbying, international trade, and adoption of a new technology. My second essay, Collective Action with Uncertain Payoffs, studies the decision problem of citizens who must decide whether to submit to the status quo or mount a revolution. If they coordinate, they can overthrow the status quo. Otherwise, the status quo is preserved and participants in a failed revolution are punished. Citizens face two types of uncertainty. (a) non-strategic: they are uncertain about the relative payoffs of the status quo and revolution, (b) strategic: they are uncertain about each other's assessments of the relative payoff. I draw on the existing literature and historical evidence to argue that the uncertainty in the payoffs of status quo and revolution is intrinsic in politics. Several counter-intuitive findings emerge: (1) Better communication between citizens can lower the likelihood of revolution. In fact, when the punishment for failed protest is not too harsh and citizens' private knowledge is accurate, then further communication reduces incentives to revolt. (2) Increasing strategic uncertainty can increase the likelihood of revolution attempts, and even the likelihood of successful revolution. In particular, revolt may be more likely when citizens privately obtain information than when they receive information from a common media source. (3) Two dilemmas arise concerning the intensity and frequency of punishment (repression), and the frequency of protest. Punishment Dilemma 1: harsher punishments may increase the probability that punishment is materialized. That is, as the state increases the punishment for dissent, it might also have to punish more dissidents. It is only when the punishment is sufficiently harsh, that harsher punishment reduces the frequency of its application. Punishment Dilemma 1 leads to Punishment Dilemma 2: the frequencies of repression and protest can be positively or negatively correlated depending on the intensity of repression. My third essay, The Repression Puzzle, investigates the relationship between the intensity of grievances and the likelihood of repression. First, I make the observation that the occurrence of state repression is a puzzle. If repression is to succeed, dissidents should not rebel. If it is to fail, the state should concede in order to save the costs of unsuccessful repression. I then propose an explanation for the “repression puzzle” that hinges on information asymmetries between the state and dissidents about the costs of repression to the state, and hence the likelihood of its application by the state. I present a formal model that combines the insights of grievance-based and political process theories to investigate the consequences of this information asymmetry for the dissidents' contentious actions and for the relationship between the magnitude of grievances (formulated here as the extent of inequality) and the likelihood of repression. The main contribution of the paper is to show that this relationship is non-monotone. That is, as the magnitude of grievances increases, the likelihood of repression might decrease. I investigate the relationship between inequality and the likelihood of repression in all country-years from 1981 to 1999. To mitigate specification problem, I estimate the probability of repression using a generalized additive model with thin-plate splines (GAM-TPS). This technique allows for flexible relationship between inequality, the proxy for the costs of repression and revolutions (income per capita), and the likelihood of repression. The empirical evidence support my prediction that the relationship between the magnitude of grievances and the likelihood of repression is non-monotone.
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The Portuguese came to Bengal in the early 16th century for trading. Between 1575 and 1600, they established many colonies on the banks of river Ganga, like Chinsura, Hooghly (Porto Pequeno), Satagaon, Gopalpur and Bandel, covering the eastern part of India. During their stay, Portuguese built many churches, schools and charitable institutions. Churches of Augustinians and Jesuits became popular tourist destinations until today. Although by the 18th century, the Portuguese presence had almost disappeared from Bengal with the emergence of British imperialism, the 500 years old (approx.) Portuguese culture is still living in modern Bengal, in the form of tangible and intangible heritage. Traces of the Portuguese impact could be seen in Bengali language, literature, folk-tales, folksongs, cuisines, agriculture, religion, cinema and trade. Some of these are included in the academic curriculum of history at school, college and university levels. In this context, research has been undertaken in the past and is still ongoing in several universities. However, heritage studies under a museological point of view have not yet been initiated at the university level. Though Goa, Panaji, Calicut, Chennai and Nagapattanam were the Portuguese centers for long periods and research has been conducted there along with the establishment of some museums,
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Complete and transparent reporting of key elements of diagnostic accuracy studies for infectious diseases in cultured and wild aquatic animals benefits end-users of these tests, enabling the rational design of surveillance programs, the assessment of test results from clinical cases and comparisons of diagnostic test performance. Based on deficiencies in the Standards for Reporting of Diagnostic Accuracy (STARD) guidelines identified in a prior finfish study (Gardner et al. 2014), we adapted the Standards for Reporting of Animal Diagnostic Accuracy Studies—paratuberculosis (STRADAS-paraTB) checklist of 25 reporting items to increase their relevance to finfish, amphibians, molluscs, and crustaceans and provided examples and explanations for each item. The checklist, known as STRADAS-aquatic, was developed and refined by an expert group of 14 transdisciplinary scientists with experience in test evaluation studies using field and experimental samples, in operation of reference laboratories for aquatic animal pathogens, and in development of international aquatic animal health policy. The main changes to the STRADAS-paraTB checklist were to nomenclature related to the species, the addition of guidelines for experimental challenge studies, and the designation of some items as relevant only to experimental studies and ante-mortem tests. We believe that adoption of these guidelines will improve reporting of primary studies of test accuracy for aquatic animal diseases and facilitate assessment of their fitness-for-purpose. Given the importance of diagnostic tests to underpin the Sanitary and Phytosanitary agreement of the World Trade Organization, the principles outlined in this paper should be applied to other World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE)-relevant species.
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Alors que les activités anthropiques font basculer de nombreux écosystèmes vers des régimes fonctionnels différents, la résilience des systèmes socio-écologiques devient un problème pressant. Des acteurs locaux, impliqués dans une grande diversité de groupes — allant d’initiatives locales et indépendantes à de grandes institutions formelles — peuvent agir sur ces questions en collaborant au développement, à la promotion ou à l’implantation de pratiques plus en accord avec ce que l’environnement peut fournir. De ces collaborations répétées émergent des réseaux complexes, et il a été montré que la topologie de ces réseaux peut améliorer la résilience des systèmes socio-écologiques (SSÉ) auxquels ils participent. La topologie des réseaux d’acteurs favorisant la résilience de leur SSÉ est caractérisée par une combinaison de plusieurs facteurs : la structure doit être modulaire afin d’aider les différents groupes à développer et proposer des solutions à la fois plus innovantes (en réduisant l’homogénéisation du réseau), et plus proches de leurs intérêts propres ; elle doit être bien connectée et facilement synchronisable afin de faciliter les consensus, d’augmenter le capital social, ainsi que la capacité d’apprentissage ; enfin, elle doit être robuste, afin d’éviter que les deux premières caractéristiques ne souffrent du retrait volontaire ou de la mise à l’écart de certains acteurs. Ces caractéristiques, qui sont relativement intuitives à la fois conceptuellement et dans leur application mathématique, sont souvent employées séparément pour analyser les qualités structurales de réseaux d’acteurs empiriques. Cependant, certaines sont, par nature, incompatibles entre elles. Par exemple, le degré de modularité d’un réseau ne peut pas augmenter au même rythme que sa connectivité, et cette dernière ne peut pas être améliorée tout en améliorant sa robustesse. Cet obstacle rend difficile la création d’une mesure globale, car le niveau auquel le réseau des acteurs contribue à améliorer la résilience du SSÉ ne peut pas être la simple addition des caractéristiques citées, mais plutôt le résultat d’un compromis subtil entre celles-ci. Le travail présenté ici a pour objectifs (1), d’explorer les compromis entre ces caractéristiques ; (2) de proposer une mesure du degré auquel un réseau empirique d’acteurs contribue à la résilience de son SSÉ ; et (3) d’analyser un réseau empirique à la lumière, entre autres, de ces qualités structurales. Cette thèse s’articule autour d’une introduction et de quatre chapitres numérotés de 2 à 5. Le chapitre 2 est une revue de la littérature sur la résilience des SSÉ. Il identifie une série de caractéristiques structurales (ainsi que les mesures de réseaux qui leur correspondent) liées à l’amélioration de la résilience dans les SSÉ. Le chapitre 3 est une étude de cas sur la péninsule d’Eyre, une région rurale d’Australie-Méridionale où l’occupation du sol, ainsi que les changements climatiques, contribuent à l’érosion de la biodiversité. Pour cette étude de cas, des travaux de terrain ont été effectués en 2010 et 2011 durant lesquels une série d’entrevues a permis de créer une liste des acteurs de la cogestion de la biodiversité sur la péninsule. Les données collectées ont été utilisées pour le développement d’un questionnaire en ligne permettant de documenter les interactions entre ces acteurs. Ces deux étapes ont permis la reconstitution d’un réseau pondéré et dirigé de 129 acteurs individuels et 1180 relations. Le chapitre 4 décrit une méthodologie pour mesurer le degré auquel un réseau d’acteurs participe à la résilience du SSÉ dans lequel il est inclus. La méthode s’articule en deux étapes : premièrement, un algorithme d’optimisation (recuit simulé) est utilisé pour fabriquer un archétype semi-aléatoire correspondant à un compromis entre des niveaux élevés de modularité, de connectivité et de robustesse. Deuxièmement, un réseau empirique (comme celui de la péninsule d’Eyre) est comparé au réseau archétypique par le biais d’une mesure de distance structurelle. Plus la distance est courte, et plus le réseau empirique est proche de sa configuration optimale. La cinquième et dernier chapitre est une amélioration de l’algorithme de recuit simulé utilisé dans le chapitre 4. Comme il est d’usage pour ce genre d’algorithmes, le recuit simulé utilisé projetait les dimensions du problème multiobjectif dans une seule dimension (sous la forme d’une moyenne pondérée). Si cette technique donne de très bons résultats ponctuellement, elle n’autorise la production que d’une seule solution parmi la multitude de compromis possibles entre les différents objectifs. Afin de mieux explorer ces compromis, nous proposons un algorithme de recuit simulé multiobjectifs qui, plutôt que d’optimiser une seule solution, optimise une surface multidimensionnelle de solutions. Cette étude, qui se concentre sur la partie sociale des systèmes socio-écologiques, améliore notre compréhension des structures actorielles qui contribuent à la résilience des SSÉ. Elle montre que si certaines caractéristiques profitables à la résilience sont incompatibles (modularité et connectivité, ou — dans une moindre mesure — connectivité et robustesse), d’autres sont plus facilement conciliables (connectivité et synchronisabilité, ou — dans une moindre mesure — modularité et robustesse). Elle fournit également une méthode intuitive pour mesurer quantitativement des réseaux d’acteurs empiriques, et ouvre ainsi la voie vers, par exemple, des comparaisons d’études de cas, ou des suivis — dans le temps — de réseaux d’acteurs. De plus, cette thèse inclut une étude de cas qui fait la lumière sur l’importance de certains groupes institutionnels pour la coordination des collaborations et des échanges de connaissances entre des acteurs aux intérêts potentiellement divergents.
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A key aspect underpinning life-history theory is the existence of trade-offs. Trade-offs occur because resources are limited, meaning that individuals cannot invest in all traits simultaneously, leading to costs for traits such as growth and reproduction. Such costs may be the reason for the sub-maximal growth rates that are often observed in nature, though the fitness consequences of these costs would depend on the effects on lifetime reproductive success. Recently, much attention has been given to the physiological mechanism that might underlie these life-history trade-offs, with oxidative stress (OS) playing a key role. OS is characterised by a build-up of oxidative damage to tissues (e.g. protein, lipids and DNA) from attack by reactive species (RS). RS, the majority of which are by-products of metabolism, are usually neutralised by antioxidants, however OS occurs when there is an imbalance between the two. There are two main theories linking OS with growth and reproduction. The first is that traits like growth and reproduction, being metabolically demanding, lead to an increase in RS production. The second involves the diversion of resources away from self-maintenance processes (e.g. the redox system) when individuals are faced with enhanced growth or reproductive expenditure. Previous research investigating trade-offs involving growth or reproduction and self-maintenance has been equivocal. One reason for this could be that associations among redox biomarkers can vary greatly so that the biomarker selected for analysis can influence the conclusion reached about an individual’s oxidative status. Therefore the first aim of my thesis was to explore the strength and pattern of integration of five biomarkers of OS (three antioxidants, one damage and one general oxidation measure) in wild blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus) adults and nestlings (Chapter 2). In doing so, I established that all five biomarkers should be included in future analyses, thus using this collection of biomarkers I explored my next aims; whether enhanced growth (Chapters 3 and 4) or reproductive effort (Chapter 5) can lead to increased OS levels, if these traits are traded off against self-maintenance. I accomplished these aims using both a meta-analytic and experimental approach, the latter involving manipulation of brood size in wild blue tits in order to experimentally alter growth rate of nestlings and provisioning rate (a proxy for reproductive expenditure) of adults. I also investigated the potential for redox integration to be used as an index of body condition (Chapter 2), allowing predictions about future fitness consequences of changes to oxidative state to be made. A growth – self-maintenance trade off was supported by my meta-analytic results (Chapter 4) which found OS to be a constraint on growth. However, when faced with experimentally enhanced growth, animals were typically not able to adjust this trade-off so that oxidative damage resulted. This might support the idea that energetically expensive growth causes resources to be diverted away from the redox system; however, antioxidants did not show an overall reduction in response to growth in the meta-analysis suggesting that oxidative costs of growth may result from increased RS production due to the greater metabolism needed for enhanced growth. My experimental data (Chapter 3) showed a similar pattern, with raised protein damage levels (protein carbonyls; PCs) in the fastest growing blue tit chicks in a brood, compared with their slower growing sibs. These within-brood differences in OS levels likely resulted from within-brood hierarchies and might have masked any between-brood differences, which were not observed here. Despite evidence for a growth – self-maintenance trade off, my experimental results on blue tits found no support for the hypothesis that self-maintenance is also traded off against reproduction, another energetically demanding trait. There was no link between experimentally altered reproductive expenditure and OS, nor was there a direct correlation between reproductive effort and OS (Chapter 5). However, there are various factors that likely influence whether oxidative costs are observed, including environmental conditions and whether such costs are transient. This emphasises the need for longitudinal studies following the same individuals over multiple years and across a wide range of habitats that differ in quality. This would allow investigation into how key life events interact; it might be that raised OS levels from rapid early growth have the potential to constrain reproduction or that high parental OS levels constrain offspring growth. Any oxidative costs resulting from these life-history trade-offs have the potential to impact on future fitness. Redox integration of certain biomarkers might prove to be a useful tool in making predictions about fitness, as I found in Chapter 2, as well as establishing how the redox system responds, as a whole, to changes to growth and reproduction. Finally, if the tissues measured can tolerate a given level of OS, then the level of oxidative damage might be irrelevant and not impact on future fitness at all.