Analysis of the Iberian electricity forward market hedging efficiency

An assessment of the hedging performance in the Iberian Forward Electricity Market is performed. Aggregated data from the Portuguese and Spanish clearing houses for energy derivatives are considered. The hedging performance is measured through the ratio of the final open interest of a month derivatives contract divided by its accumulated cleared volume. The base load futures in the Iberian energy derivatives exchange show the lowest ratios due to good liquidity. The peak futures show bigger ratios as their reduced liquidity is produced by auctions fixed by Portuguese regulation. The base load swaps settled in the clearing house located in Spain show initially large values due to low registered volumes, as this clearing house is mainly used for short maturity (daily and weekly swaps). This hedging ratio can be a powerful oversight tool for energy regulators when accessing to all the derivatives transactions as envisaged by European regulation.

Modelling and forecasting fossil fuels, CO2 and electricity prices and their volatilities

In the current uncertain context that affects both the world economy and the energy sector, with the rapid increase in the prices of oil and gas and the very unstable political situation that affects some of the largest raw materials’ producers, there is a need for developing efficient and powerful quantitative tools that allow to model and forecast fossil fuel prices, CO2 emission allowances prices as well as electricity prices. This will improve decision making for all the agents involved in energy issues. Although there are papers focused on modelling fossil fuel prices, CO2 prices and electricity prices, the literature is scarce on attempts to consider all of them together. This paper focuses on both building a multivariate model for the aforementioned prices and comparing its results with those of univariate ones, in terms of prediction accuracy (univariate and multivariate models are compared for a large span of days, all in the first 4 months in 2011) as well as extracting common features in the volatilities of the prices of all these relevant magnitudes. The common features in volatility are extracted by means of a conditionally heteroskedastic dynamic factor model which allows to solve the curse of dimensionality problem that commonly arises when estimating multivariate GARCH models. Additionally, the common volatility factors obtained are useful for improving the forecasting intervals and have a nice economical interpretation. Besides, the results obtained and methodology proposed can be useful as a starting point for risk management or portfolio optimization under uncertainty in the current context of energy markets.

Mixed models for short-run forecasting of electricity prices: Application for the Spanish market

Short-run forecasting of electricity prices has become necessary for power generation unit schedule, since it is the basis of every profit maximization strategy. In this article a new and very easy method to compute accurate forecasts for electricity prices using mixed models is proposed. The main idea is to develop an efficient tool for one-step-ahead forecasting in the future, combining several prediction methods for which forecasting performance has been checked and compared for a span of several years. Also as a novelty, the 24 hourly time series has been modelled separately, instead of the complete time series of the prices. This allows one to take advantage of the homogeneity of these 24 time series. The purpose of this paper is to select the model that leads to smaller prediction errors and to obtain the appropriate length of time to use for forecasting. These results have been obtained by means of a computational experiment. A mixed model which combines the advantages of the two new models discussed is proposed. Some numerical results for the Spanish market are shown, but this new methodology can be applied to other electricity markets as well

Electricity price forecasting accounting for renewable energies: optimal combined forecasts

Electricity price forecasting is an interesting problem for all the agents involved in electricity market operation. For instance, every profit maximisation strategy is based on the computation of accurate one-day-ahead forecasts, which is why electricity price forecasting has been a growing field of research in recent years. In addition, the increasing concern about environmental issues has led to a high penetration of renewable energies, particularly wind. In some European countries such as Spain, Germany and Denmark, renewable energy is having a deep impact on the local power markets. In this paper, we propose an optimal model from the perspective of forecasting accuracy, and it consists of a combination of several univariate and multivariate time series methods that account for the amount of energy produced with clean energies, particularly wind and hydro, which are the most relevant renewable energy sources in the Iberian Market. This market is used to illustrate the proposed methodology, as it is one of those markets in which wind power production is more relevant in terms of its percentage of the total demand, but of course our method can be applied to any other liberalised power market. As far as our contribution is concerned, first, the methodology proposed by García-Martos et al(2007 and 2012) is generalised twofold: we allow the incorporation of wind power production and hydro reservoirs, and we do not impose the restriction of using the same model for 24h. A computational experiment and a Design of Experiments (DOE) are performed for this purpose. Then, for those hours in which there are two or more models without statistically significant differences in terms of their forecasting accuracy, a combination of forecasts is proposed by weighting the best models(according to the DOE) and minimising the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The MAPE is the most popular accuracy metric for comparing electricity price forecasting models. We construct the combi nation of forecasts by solving several nonlinear optimisation problems that allow computation of the optimal weights for building the combination of forecasts. The results are obtained by a large computational experiment that entails calculating out-of-sample forecasts for every hour in every day in the period from January 2007 to Decem ber 2009. In addition, to reinforce the value of our methodology, we compare our results with those that appear in recent published works in the field. This comparison shows the superiority of our methodology in terms of forecasting accuracy.

Customer loyalty plan at Residencia Gómez-Pardo, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid

Accommodation is a first need and one of the most important decisions that university students have to decide taking into account their limited budget. The satisfaction grade of these students is the relevant aspect for the administrators and managers of the university residences, because it allows assuring the viability and sustainability of this kind of accommodation. In a situation of decline in rate of retention of students into the residence, coupled with an environment of economic crisis. Hence, of disposable income reduction, it seems essential to get to know what factors affect the motivation to remain into the university residence more than others when it comes to the final choice. The offer?s increase of different kind of accommodation is another variable to be considered when taking the decision related to the management of this kind of accommodation. Thus, there is the need to know which are the key factors and to obtain information about these variables in order to go deep into the relevance grade with the aim to pursue the strategic objectives, that will allow to improve the relationship with the customer and to respond to his accommodation? needs. This article researches the motivation elements that lead the students to remain in a university residence or to abandon it in exchange or a different accommodation, as per example shared flats or individual apartments. This research work intends to be useful for the university residence?s managers in order to increase its incomes, to raise the satisfaction degree among its residents and to obtain better end results in the management of these properties. The fieldwork conducted in the Residencia Universitaria Gómez Pardo (RUGP), Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM), for four semesters, which means students from 27 different grades (undergraduates) and 81 surveys finished, shows the following conclusions. Not only the relation with the residence?s personnel but also the quality and quantity of the feeding and the availability and quality of the internet service, constitute key factors when it comes to make the decision of remaining or of abandoning the residence when the semester comes to its end.

Present and future of photovoltaic solar electricity

Introduction Crystalline silicon technology, from quartz to system Economical and environmental issues Alternatives to cristalline silicon technology Conclusions

Optimal Combined Forecasts for Electricity Prices: Influence of Clean Energies

In this work, an electricity price forecasting model is developed. The performance of the proposed approach is improved by considering renewable energies (wind power and hydro generation) as explanatory variables. Additionally, the resulting forecasts are obtained as an optimal combination of a set of several univariate and multivariate time series models. The large computational experiment carried out using out-of-sample forecasts for every hour and day allows withdrawing statistically sound conclusions

Customer Relationship Management-PeopleSoft CRM

1 RESUMEN 1.1 Resumen (español) El intercambio y comercio tanto de bienes como servicios se remonta a tiempos inmemoriales dentro de la historia de la humanidad. Desde sus inicios tempranos con el intercambio o trueque de productos en el Neolítico hasta nuestra época híper globalizada, en la que existen clientes potenciales en el otro extremo del mundo, podemos decir que se ha recorrido un largo camino. Con el paso del tiempo y la evolución de la sociedad y la tecnología, así como la evolución empresarial, se ha visto necesario la implementación de estrategias para lograr la fidelización y satisfacción de los clientes. De esta forma entendimos que ya no valía simplemente con vender un producto a un cliente, si no que si queríamos establecer una relación continúa con el mismo, debíamos lograr su satisfacción y por tanto su fidelización. Como forma de extender la relación más allá de una simple venta, las empresas modernas empezaron a implementar diversas estrategias. De esta forma aparecieron los primeros centros de atención al cliente, las primeras aplicaciones hechas a medida para dar soporte a los clientes y por fin los sistemas CRM tal y como los concebimos hoy día. El presente proyecto fin de carrera da una explicación de dichos sistemas indicando cuáles son sus objetos fundamentales y cómo implementan la estrategia CRM y profundiza en uno de los sistemas CRM más utilizados: PeopleSoft CRM, dando una explicación detallada de dicho sistemas así como de los conceptos y lenguaje de programación de dicho sistema CRM. 1.2 SUMMARY (ENGLISH) The exchange and trade of goods as well and services goes back to ancient times in the history of mankind. Since its early beginning with the bartering of products in the Neolithic to our globalized hyper era, in which there are potential customers on the other side of the world, we can say that it has come a long way. After a certain length of time, the society and technology evolution, and also the enterprise development, has been necessary to implement strategies to achieve customer loyalty and satisfaction. We understood in this way that it no longer simply worth to sell a product to a customer, otherwise if we wanted to establish a relationship continues with the same, we should ensure their satisfaction and thus their loyalty. As a way to extend the relationship beyond a simple sale, modern enterprises began to implement several strategies. Therefore appeared the first customer service centers, the first applications tailored to support customers and finally the CRM systems as we know it today. This final project gives an explanation of such systems by indicating what the core objects are and how to implement the CRM strategy, deeping into one of the most widely used CRM systems: PeopleSoft CRM, and also giving a detailed explanation of this system and its programming language.

Methodology for estimating building integrated photovoltaics electricity production under shadowing conditions and case study

Building integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) systems are a relevant application of photovoltaics. In countries belonging to the International Energy Agency countries, 24% of total installed PV power corresponds to BIPV systems. Electricity losses caused by shadows over the PV generator have a significant impact on the performance of BIPV systems, being the major source of electricity losses. This paper presents a methodology to estimate electricity produced by BIPV systems which incorporates a model for shading losses. The proposed methodology has been validated on a one year study with real data from two similar PV systems placed on the south façade of a building belonging to the Technical University of Madrid. This study has covered all weather conditions: clear, partially overcast and fully overcast sky. Results of this study are shown at different time scales, resulting that the errors committed by the best performing model are below 1% and 3% in annual and daily electricity estimation. The use of models which account for the reduced performance at low irradiance levels also improves the estimation of generated electricity.

Unit Commitment and Electricity Prices Forecasting for Market Strategy Preparation in Interconnected Systems

In this paper we present a solution for building a better strategy to take part in external electricity markets. For an optimal strategy development, both the internal system costs as well as the future values of the series of electricity prices in external markets need to be known. But in practice, the real problems that must be faced are that both future electricity prices and costs are unknown. Thus, the first ones must be modeled and forecasted and the costs must be calculated. Our methodology for building an optimal strategy consists of three steps: The first step is modeling and forecasting market prices in external systems. The second step is the cost calculation on internal system taking into account the expected prices in the first step. The third step is based on the results of the previous steps, and consists of preparing the bids for external markets. The main goal is to reduce consumers' costs unlike many others that are oriented to increase GenCo's profits.

Economic Impacts of Rules-based vs Risk-based Cybersecurity Regulations in Critical Infrastructure Providers (Bulk Electricity Providers)

Economics of Cybersecurity Part 2. SPSI-2015-01-0024.

Assessment of Customer Service in Academic Health Care Libraries (ACSAHL): an instrument for measuring customer service*†

Objectives: In a pilot study, the library had good results using SERVQUAL, a respected and often-used instrument for measuring customer satisfaction. The SERVQUAL instrument itself, however, received some serious and well-founded criticism from the respondents to our survey. The purpose of this study was to test the comparability of the results of SERVQUAL with a revised and shortened instrument modeled on SERVQUAL. The revised instrument, the Assessment of Customer Service in Academic Health Care Libraries (ACSAHL), was designed to better assess customer service in academic health care libraries.

Customer response to media in marketing promotion: print versus online

Il lavoro di tesi, che si compone di tre articoli di ricerca, analizza, nel contesto della marketing promotion, la risposta del consumatore ai media in termini di ricordo, intenzione di acquisto, comportamento di acquisto e preferenza per il medium. Il lavoro, in particolare, mette a confronto due tipologie di media, carta e online, nell’ambito della price e loyalty promotion, utilizzando due disegni di ricerca sperimentali ed uno correlazionale. I risultati del lavoro mostrano che la risposta del consumatore alla comunicazione promozionale e ai media è eterogenea: segmenti di clienti diversi rispondono in maniera differente sia alla comunicazione promozionale che a carta e digitale. Online e carta hanno in media la stessa efficacia sui comportamenti di acquisto dei clienti, ma differiscono rispetto all’effetto su ricordo e atteggiamento e rispetto alla preferenza per il medium espressa dalla clientela. Lo spostamento delle risorse di marketing dalla carta al digitale permetterebbe quindi di ridurre i costi mantenendo lo stesso livello di efficacia. Inoltre, il presente lavoro mostra come sia possibile aumentare la risposta dei consumatori ai media attraverso un approccio di segmentazione della clientela.

How Does the Denver Public Library System Respond to its Customer's Requests for Global Information?

The interaction between globally available information and public library users is a changing one. Global information is readily available yet provider and user struggle to find efficiencies of time and resources. As a primary resource of global information the Denver Public Library (DPL) is approaching this challenge by providing changing technology to a changing user and by providing a customized approach to immigrant populations. DPL provides global information to library users through collections, programs and Internet. Internet and collections global information usage cannot be directly measured due to privacy restrictions. Only 12.5% of general user programs focus on global information. Four percent of budget serves the immigrant users. This is greater than national averages.

Geothermal Electricity Generation in Colorado: Actual and Perceived Obstacles to Greater Implementation

The objective of this paper is to provide an analysis of the potential and obstacles to the development of geothermal energy resources in Colorado. Geothermal energy is the only renewable resource that can provide base-load electricity. While Colorado has significant geothermal energy potential, there are no such power plants. Layers of federal and state laws and regulations represent one barrier to further geothermal development. Transmission constraints represent another major barrier. High exploration and construction costs along with high-risk profiles for geothermal projects form another major barrier. Perceived barriers such as misunderstanding the impacts, risks, and benefits of geothermal energy hinder further development. Recommendations are provided to help overcome these obstacles.