Approximate Bayesian Computation for astronomical model analysis : a case study in galaxy demographics and morphological transformation at high redshift

Approximate Bayesian Computation’ (ABC) represents a powerful methodology for the analysis of complex stochastic systems for which the likelihood of the observed data under an arbitrary set of input parameters may be entirely intractable – the latter condition rendering useless the standard machinery of tractable likelihood-based, Bayesian statistical inference [e.g. conventional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation]. In this paper, we demonstrate the potential of ABC for astronomical model analysis by application to a case study in the morphological transformation of high-redshift galaxies. To this end, we develop, first, a stochastic model for the competing processes of merging and secular evolution in the early Universe, and secondly, through an ABC-based comparison against the observed demographics of massive (Mgal > 1011 M⊙) galaxies (at 1.5 < z < 3) in the Cosmic Assembly Near-IR Deep Extragalatic Legacy Survey (CANDELS)/Extended Groth Strip (EGS) data set we derive posterior probability densities for the key parameters of this model. The ‘Sequential Monte Carlo’ implementation of ABC exhibited herein, featuring both a self-generating target sequence and self-refining MCMC kernel, is amongst the most efficient of contemporary approaches to this important statistical algorithm. We highlight as well through our chosen case study the value of careful summary statistic selection, and demonstrate two modern strategies for assessment and optimization in this regard. Ultimately, our ABC analysis of the high-redshift morphological mix returns tight constraints on the evolving merger rate in the early Universe and favours major merging (with disc survival or rapid reformation) over secular evolution as the mechanism most responsible for building up the first generation of bulges in early-type discs.

Brain networks subserving the evaluation of static and dynamic facial expressions

Because moving depictions of face emotion have greater ecological validity than their static counterparts, it has been suggested that still photographs may not engage ‘authentic’ mechanisms used to recognize facial expressions in everyday life. To date, however, no neuroimaging studies have adequately addressed the question of whether the processing of static and dynamic expressions rely upon different brain substrates. To address this, we performed an functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) experiment wherein participants made emotional expression discrimination and Sex discrimination judgements to static and moving face images. Compared to Sex discrimination, Emotion discrimination was associated with widespread increased activation in regions of occipito-temporal, parietal and frontal cortex. These regions were activated both by moving and by static emotional stimuli, indicating a general role in the interpretation of emotion. However, portions of the inferior frontal gyri and supplementary/pre-supplementary motor area showed task by motion interaction. These regions were most active during emotion judgements to static faces. Our results demonstrate a common neural substrate for recognizing static and moving facial expressions, but suggest a role for the inferior frontal gyrus in supporting simulation processes that are invoked more strongly to disambiguate static emotional cues.

Innate transcriptional networks activated in bladder in response to uropathogenic Escherichia coli drive diverse biological pathways and rapid synthesis of IL-10 for defense against bacterial urinary tract infection

Early transcriptional activation events that occur in bladder immediately following bacterial urinary tract infection (UTI) are not well defined. In this study, we describe the whole bladder transcriptome of uropathogenic Escherichia coli (UPEC) cystitis in mice using genome-wide expression profiling to define the transcriptome of innate immune activation stemming from UPEC colonization of the bladder. Bladder RNA from female C57BL/6 mice, analyzed using 1.0 ST-Affymetrix microarrays, revealed extensive activation of diverse sets of innate immune response genes, including those that encode multiple IL-family members, receptors, metabolic regulators, MAPK activators, and lymphocyte signaling molecules. These were among 1564 genes differentially regulated at 2 h postinfection, highlighting a rapid and broad innate immune response to bladder colonization. Integrative systems-level analyses using InnateDB (http://www.innatedb.com) bioinformatics and ingenuity pathway analysis identified multiple distinct biological pathways in the bladder transcriptome with extensive involvement of lymphocyte signaling, cell cycle alterations, cytoskeletal, and metabolic changes. A key regulator of IL activity identified in the transcriptome was IL-10, which was analyzed functionally to reveal marked exacerbation of cystitis in IL-10–deficient mice. Studies of clinical UTI revealed significantly elevated urinary IL-10 in patients with UPEC cystitis, indicating a role for IL-10 in the innate response to human UTI. The whole bladder transcriptome presented in this work provides new insight into the diversity of innate factors that determine UTI on a genome-wide scale and will be valuable for further data mining. Identification of protective roles for other elements in the transcriptome will provide critical new insight into the complex cascade of events that underpin UTI.

Model choice problems using approximate Bayesian computation with applications to pathogen transmission data sets

Analytically or computationally intractable likelihood functions can arise in complex statistical inferential problems making them inaccessible to standard Bayesian inferential methods. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods address such inferential problems by replacing direct likelihood evaluations with repeated sampling from the model. ABC methods have been predominantly applied to parameter estimation problems and less to model choice problems due to the added difficulty of handling multiple model spaces. The ABC algorithm proposed here addresses model choice problems by extending Fearnhead and Prangle (2012, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 74, 1–28) where the posterior mean of the model parameters estimated through regression formed the summary statistics used in the discrepancy measure. An additional stepwise multinomial logistic regression is performed on the model indicator variable in the regression step and the estimated model probabilities are incorporated into the set of summary statistics for model choice purposes. A reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo step is also included in the algorithm to increase model diversity for thorough exploration of the model space. This algorithm was applied to a validating example to demonstrate the robustness of the algorithm across a wide range of true model probabilities. Its subsequent use in three pathogen transmission examples of varying complexity illustrates the utility of the algorithm in inferring preference of particular transmission models for the pathogens.

Physical mechanism of the compressive response of F-actin networks : significance of crosslinker unbinding events

A model of crosslinker unbinding is implemented in a highly coarsegrained granular model of F-actin cytoskeleton. We employ this specific granular model to study the mechanisms of the compressive responses of F-actin networks. It is found that the compressive response of F-actin cytoskeleton has dependency on the strain rate. The evolution of deformation energy in the network indicates that crosslinker unbinding events can induce the remodelling of F-actin cytoskeleton in response to external loadings. The internal stress in F-actin cytoskeleton can efficiently dissipate with the help of crosslinker unbinding, which could lead to the spontaneous relaxation of living cells.