Climate Change and Development in Latin America and the Caribbean. Overview 2009

Includes bibliography

Impact of climate change on the phoma leaf spot of coffee in Brazil

The potential impact of global climate change on the spatial-temporal distribution of phoma leaf spot of coffee in Brazil was evaluated. Maps were prepared with the favorability of the climate to the occurrence of the disease in the current period and future. The future scenarios used were centered for the decades of 2010-2030, 2040-2060, and 2070-2090 (scenarios A2 and B2). These scenarios were obtained from six global climate models (GCM's) provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Assuming the future scenarios outlined by the IPCC, a reduction will occur in the occurrence of climatic favorability of phoma leaf spot in Brazil in both future scenarios (A2 and B2). As with the temporal distribution, the period of greatest risk of phoma leaf spot will tend to diminish in future decades. These planned changes will be larger in the A2 scenario compared to the predicted scenario B2. Despite the decrease in the favorability of phoma leaf spot in the country, some regions still present a potential risk of this disease. Furthermore, the increased frequency of extreme weather was not taken in to account. These will certainly influence the magnitude of potential impacts of climate change on the phoma leaf spot in Brazil.

The economics of climate change in Latin America and the Caribbean: Paradoxes and challenges of sustainable development

The robust growth of Latin American and Caribbean economies in recent years has led to an improvement in economic and social conditions in the region. It has also had collateral negative effects, however, such as more air pollution in urban areas and a serious deterioration of various natural assets, including non-renewable resources, water resources and forests. There are economies and societies within the region that are highly vulnerable to all sorts of adverse impacts of climate change, and whose production structures and consumption patterns still tend to leave a large carbon footprint. This situation has reached the point of undermining the foundations of the region’s economic buoyancy. Latin America and the Caribbean therefore needs to make the transition in the years to come towards a sustainable form of development that will preserve its economic, social and natural assets for future generations and leave them with a legacy of a more equal, more socially inclusive, low-carbon form of economic growth. Viewed from this standpoint, the climate change challenge is also a sustainable development challenge, and if it is to be addressed successfully, a global consensus that recognizes the asymmetries and paradoxes of the problem will have to be reached..

An assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change on the health sector in the Caribbean

Climate change affects the fundamental bases of good human health, which are clean air, safe drinking water, sufficient food, and secure shelter. Climate change is known to impact health through three climate dimensions: extreme heat, natural disasters, and infections and diseases. The temporal and spatial climatic changes that will affect the biology and ecology of vectors and intermediate hosts are likely to increase the risks of disease transmission. The greatest effect of climate change on disease transmission is likely to be observed at the extremes of the range of temperatures at which transmission typically occurs. Caribbean countries are marked by unique geographical and geological features. When combined with their physical, infrastructural development, these features make them relatively more prone to negative impacts from changes in climatic conditions. The increased variability of climate associated with slow-moving tropical depressions has implications for water quality through flooding as well as hurricanes. Caribbean countries often have problems with water and sanitation. These problems are exacerbated whenever there is excess rainfall, or no rainfall. The current report aims to prepare the Caribbean to respond better to the anticipated impact of climate change on the health sector, while fostering a subregional Caribbean approach to reducing carbon emissions by 2050. It provides a major advance on the analytical and contextual issues surrounding the impact of climate change on health in the Caribbean by focusing on the vector-borne and waterborne diseases that are anticipated to be impacted directly by climate change. The ultimate goal is to quantify both the direct and indirect costs associated with each disease, and to present adaptation strategies that can address these health concerns effectively to benefit the populations of the Caribbean.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture, Energy and Health sectors in Trinidad and Tobago

This report analyses the agriculture, energy, and health sectors in Trinidad and Tobago to assess the potential economic impacts of climate change on the sectors. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change on Trinidad and Tobago. It also has the potential to provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help advance the Caribbean subregion closer to solving problems associated with climate change and attaining individual and regional sustainable development goals. Some of the key anticipated impacts of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050. An exploration of various adaptation strategies was also undertaken for each sector using standard evaluation techniques. The study of the impact of climate change on the agriculture sector focused on root crops, green vegetables and fisheries. For these sectors combined, the cumulative loss under the A2 scenario is calculated as approximately B$2.24 and approximately B$1.72 under the B2 scenario by 2050. This is equivalent to 1.37% and 1.05% of the 2008 GDP under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. Given the potential for significant damage to the agriculture sector a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these a short-list of 10 potential options were selected by applying 10 evaluation criteria. All of the adaptation strategies showed positive benefits. The analysis indicate that the options with the highest net benefits are: (1) Building on-farm water storage, (2) Mainstreaming climate change issues into agricultural management and (3) Using drip irrigation. Other attractive options include water harvesting. The policy decisions by governments should include these assessments, the omitted intangible benefits, as well as the provision of other social goals such as employment. The analysis of the energy sector has shown that the economic impact of climate change during 2011-2050 is similar under the A2 (US$142.88 million) and B2 (US$134.83 million) scenarios with A2 scenario having a slightly higher cost (0.737% of 2009 GDP) than the B2 scenario (0.695% of 2009 GDP) for the period. On the supply side, analyses indicate that Trinidad and Tobago’s energy sector will be susceptible to the climate change policies of major energy-importing countries (the United States of America and China), and especially to their renewable energy strategies. Implementation of foreign oil substitution policy by the United States of America will result in a decline in Trinidad and Tobago’s Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) export (equivalent to 2.2% reduction in 2009 GDP) unless an alternative market is secured for the lost United States of America market. China, with its rapid economic growth and the highest population in the world, offers a potential replacement market for Trinidad and Tobago’s LNG export. In this context the A2 scenario will offer the best option for Trinidad and Tobago’s energy sector. The cost-benefit analysis undertaken on selected adaptation strategies reveal that the benefit-cost ratio of replacing electric water heaters with solar water heaters is the most cost-effective. It was also found that the introduction of Compact Fluorescent Light (CFL) and Variable Refrigerant Volume (VRV) air conditioners surpasses the projected cost of increased electricity consumption due to climate change, and provides an economic rationale for the adoption of these adaptation options even in a situation of increased electricity consumption occasioned by climate change. Finally, the conversion of motor fleets to Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) is a cost-effective adaptation option for the transport sector, although it has a high initial cost of implementation and the highest per capita among the four adaptation options evaluated. To investigate the effect of climate change on the health sector dengue fever, leptospirosis, food borne illnesses, and gastroenteritis were examined. The total number of new dengue cases for the period 2008 to 2050 was 204,786 for BAU, 153,725 for A2 and 131,890 for the B2 scenario. With regard to the results for leptospirosis, A2 and B2 seem to be following a similar path with total number of new cases in the A2 scenario being 9,727 and 9,218 cases under the B2 scenario. Although incidence levels in the BAU scenario coincided with those of A2 and B2 prior to 2020, they are somewhat lower post 2020. A similar picture emerges for the scenarios as they relate to food-borne illnesses and to gastroenteritis. Specifically for food-borne illnesses, the BAU scenario recorded 27,537 cases, the A2 recorded 28,568 cases and the B2 recorded 28,679 cases. The focus on the selected sources of morbidity in the health sector has highlighted the fact that the vulnerability of the country’s health sector to climate change does not depend solely on exogenously derived impacts, but also on the behaviour and practices among the population. It is clear that the vulnerability which became evident in the analysis of the impacts on dengue fever, leptospirosis and food-borne illnesses is not restricted solely to climate or other external factors. The most important adaptation strategy being recommended targets lifestyle, behaviour and attitude changes. The population needs to be encouraged to alter their behaviours and practices so as to minimise their exposure to harmful outcomes as it relates to the incidence of these diseases.

The economics of climate change in the Caribbean

The present volume captures the results of the studies conducted during Phase 2 of the RECCC project to date. Chapter 1 provides the contextual framework within which the assessments were conducted and Chapter 2 focuses on the emissions scenarios as set out by the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The results of the economic assessments of the impacts of climate change on the agricultural, coastal and marine, energy and transportation, health, freshwater resources and tourism sectors in the Caribbean subregion are presented in Chapters 3 to 9, respectively. The report concludes with an examination of adaptation strategies and key policy recommendations for policymakers, in Chapter 10.

Cardiovascular and respiratory alterations in dogs during cervical myelography using ioversol

Subarachnoid infusion of most contrast mediums and the steps involved in performing a cervical myelography have adverse affects that can discourage its use in the radiographic diagnosis of spinal cord diseases. Thus, the cardiovascular and respiratory alterations associated with neck flexion, subarachnoid puncture, and cerebrospinal fluid drainage during subarachnoid infusion of ioversol (320mgI/mL) in dogs under general anesthesia using isoflurane were evaluated. The dogs received subarachnoid infusion of autologous cerebrospinal fluid kept at 38°C - control group (GC); ioversol 0.3mL/kg at 25°C (GI25) and ioversol 0.3mL/kg heated to 38°C (GI38). Each dog had its heart rate (HR), systolic arterial pressure (SAP), diastolic arterial pressure (DAP), respiratory rate (RR), oxyhemoglobin saturation (SaO2) and electrocardiography readings (PR and QT intervals) recorded. Group comparisons showed no statistical difference regarding neck positioning, subarachnoid puncture, and subarachnoid infusion of contrast medium on HR, RR and SaO2, cardiac rhythm or conduction. However, isoflurane significantly increased PR and QT intervals. Based on these findings, it is concluded that the steps involved in cervical myelography and the use of ioversol 320mgI/mL at 0.3mL/kg (25ºC and 38ºC) during cervical myelography did not result in relevant cardiovascular and respiratory alterations, except for an elevation in arterial pressure after injection of ioversol.

Physiological and production response of dairy goats bred in a tropical climate

The aim of this work was to determine the adaptability of Saanen and A1/2Saanen x A1/2Anglo-Nubian (A1/2SA1/2AN) goats bred in tropical climates. The study included 30 goats, 15 Saanen and 15 A1/2SA1/2AN. The data was collected during the rainy and dry seasons. During the whole experimental period, the environment variables were recorded, as well as rectal temperature (RT), superficial temperature (ST), respiratory rate (RR) and heart rate (HR) and milk production (MP). The adaptability coefficient (AC) was calculated for both genotypes. The averages were evaluated by ANOVA at 5 % probability. There was a genotype and period of year effect, as well as the interaction genotype x period of year. Pearson's simple correlation analysis was then carried out between milk production and physiological and environment variables. There was a statistical difference (p < 0.05) between the seasons for RT, ST and RR. RT, RR and HR were lower for A1/2SA1/2AN than Saanen goats, regardless of the season. MP was greater in the dry season (p < 0.05) (2.52 A +/- 0.50 kg/day for A1/2SA1/2AN and 2.41 A +/- 0.38 kg/day for Saanen) than the rainy season (2.17 A +/- 0.27 kg/day for A1/2SA1/2AN and 2.28 A +/- 0.53 kg/day for Saanen). The MP correlations were very significant (p < 0.05), however low and negative, where it was higher when correlated with RR in Saanen goats. Under the conditions of the present study, it is concluded that the goats were influenced by climatic factors, where the rainy period was more likely to cause thermal stress in the animals.

Detection of serum antibodies to parainfluenza type 3 virus, respiratory syncytial virus, bovine viral diarrhea virus, and herpes virus type 1 in sheep in the region of Botucatu, São Paulo - Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

NONSPECIFIC INFECTIOUS DISEASES IN PREHISTORIC SAN PEDRO DE ATACAMA, NORTHERN CHILE

The region of San Pedro de Atacama, Northern Chile, has undergone several cultural and social changes after humans settled in Atacama Desert around 500 BC. The Atacameno people experienced the highest degree of social and cultural changes between 400 and 900 AD when they were assimilated into the Tiwanaku trade and political web that influenced most of the Central-Southern Andes. Under the influence of Tiwanaku, San Pedro de Atacama experienced its greatest economic development. Prior analyses of local human skeletal remains have shown a significant increase in the stature of the local population during the same period. In this paper, we investigate the impact of the Tiwanaku influence on the local epidemiological profile using the incidence of periostitis and osteomyelitis as indicators of biological stress. Surprisingly, the best epidemiological condition occurred during the final phase of influence of Tiwanaku (910-960 AD), and not during the apex influence (480-920 AD), as expected by the archaeological context. We suggest that population growth and aggregation may have counteracted the benefits of improved nutrition during the peak Tiwanaku influence. A severe drought occurred between 1,100 and 1,400 AD in Northern Chile. This could also explain the marked increase of bone infections in the post-Tiwanaku period (920-1,240 AD).

Urban Air Pollutants are Significant Risk Factors for Asthma and Pneumonia in Children: The Influence of Location on the Measurement of Pollutants

Background: Air pollution is associated with a substantial burden on human health; however, the most important pollutants may vary with location. Proper monitoring is necessary to determine the effect of these pollutants on respiratory health. Objectives: This study was designed to evaluate the role of outdoor, indoor and personal exposure to combustion-related pollutants NO2 and O-3 on respiratory health of children in a non-affluent urban area of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Methods: Levels of NO2 and O-3 were continuously measured in outdoor and indoor air, as well as personal exposure, for 30 days using passive measurement monitors. Respiratory health was assessed with a Brazilian version of the ISAAC questionnaire. Results: Complete data were available from 64 children, aged 6-10 years. Respiratory morbidity was high, with 43 (67.2%) reporting having had wheezing at any time, 27 (42.2%) wheezing in the last month, 17 (26.6%) asthma at any time and 21(32.8%) pneumonia at any time. Correlations between levels of NO2 and O-3 measured in the three locations evaluated were poor. Levels of NO2 in indoor air and personal exposure to O-3 were independently associated with asthma (both cases P=.02), pneumonia (O-3, P=.02) and wheezing at any time (both cases P<.01). No associations were seen between outdoor NO2 and O-3 and respiratory health. Conclusions: Exposure to higher levels of NO2 and O-3 was associated with increased risk for asthma and pneumonia in children. Nonetheless, the place where the pollutants are measured influences the results. The measurements taken in indoor and personal exposure were the most accurate. (C) 2012 SEPAR. Published by Elsevier Espana, S.L. All rights reserved.

Diversity and Adaptation of Human Respiratory Syncytial Virus Genotypes Circulating in Two Distinct Communities: Public Hospital and Day Care Center

HRSV is one of the most important pathogens causing acute respiratory tract diseases as bronchiolitis and pneumonia among infants. HRSV was isolated from two distinct communities, a public day care center and a public hospital in Sao Jose do Rio Preto - SP, Brazil. We obtained partial sequences from G gene that were used on phylogenetic and selection pressure analysis. HRSV accounted for 29% of respiratory infections in hospitalized children and 7.7% in day care center children. On phylogenetic analysis of 60 HRSV strains, 48 (80%) clustered within or adjacent to the GA1 genotype; GA5, NA1, NA2, BA-IV and SAB1 were also observed. SJRP GA1 strains presented variations among deduced amino acids composition and lost the potential O-glycosilation site at amino acid position 295, nevertheless this resulted in an insertion of two potential O-glycosilation sites at positions 296 and 297. Furthermore, a potential O-glycosilation site insertion, at position 293, was only observed for hospital strains. Using SLAC and MEME methods, only amino acid 274 was identified to be under positive selection. This is the first report on HRSV circulation and genotypes classification derived from a day care center community in Brazil.

Calorie restriction increases cerebral mitochondrial respiratory capacity in a NO center dot-mediated mechanism: Impact on neuronal survival

Calorie restriction (CR) enhances animal life span and prevents age-related diseases, including neurological decline. Recent evidence suggests that a mechanism involved in CR-induced life-span extension is NO-stimulated mitochondrial biogenesis. We examine here the effects of CR on brain mitochondrial content. CR increased eNOS and nNOS and the content of mitochondria] proteins (cytochrome c oxidase, citrate synthase, and mitofusin) in the brain. Furthermore, we established an in vitro system to study the neurological effects of CR using serum extracted from animals on this diet. In cultured neurons, CR serum enhanced nNOS expression and increased levels of nitrite (a NO product). CR serum also enhanced the levels of cytochrome c oxidase and increased citrate synthase activity and respiratory rates in neurons. CR serum effects were inhibited by L-NAME and mimicked by the NO donor SNAP. Furthermore, both CR sera and SNAP were capable of improving neuronal survival. Overall, our results indicate that CR increases mitochondrial biogenesis in a NO-mediated manner, resulting in enhanced reserve respiratory capacity and improved survival in neurons. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Homogeneity assessment of a station climate series (1933-2005) in the Metropolitan Area of Sao Paulo: instruments change and urbanization effects

This work assessed homogeneity of the Institute of Astronomy, Geophysics and Atmospheric Sciences (IAG) weather station climate series, using various statistical techniques. The record from this target station is one of the longest in Brazil, having commenced in 1933 with observations of precipitation, and temperatures and other variables later in 1936. Thus, it is one of the few stations in Brazil with enough data for long-term climate variability and climate change studies. There is, however, a possibility that its data may have been contaminated by some artifacts over time. Admittedly, there was an intervention on the observations in 1958, with the replacement of instruments, for which the size of impact has not been yet evaluated. The station transformed in the course of time from rural to urban, and this may also have influenced homogeneity of the observations and makes the station less representative for climate studies over larger spatial scales. Homogeneity of the target station was assessed applying both absolute, or single station tests, and tests relatively to regional climate, in annual scale, regarding daily precipitation, relative humidity, maximum (TMax), minimum (TMin), and wet bulb temperatures. Among these quantities, only precipitation does not exhibit any inhomogeneity. A clear signal of change of instruments in 1958 was detected in the TMax and relative humidity data, the latter certainly because of its strong dependence on temperature. This signal is not very clear in TMin, but it presents non-climatic discontinuities around 1953 and around 1970. A significant homogeneity break is found around 1990 for TMax and wet bulb temperature. The discontinuities detected after 1958 may have been caused by urbanization, as the observed warming trend in the station is considerably greater than that corresponding to regional climate.

High Rates of Detection of Respiratory Viruses in Tonsillar Tissues from Children with Chronic Adenotonsillar Disease

Chronic tonsillar diseases are an important health problem, leading to large numbers of surgical procedures worldwide. Little is known about pathogenesis of these diseases. In order to investigate the role of respiratory viruses in chronic adenotonsillar diseases, we developed a cross-sectional study to determine the rates of viral detections of common respiratory viruses detected by TaqMan real time PCR (qPCR) in nasopharyngeal secretions, tonsillar tissues and peripheral blood from 121 children with chronic tonsillar diseases, without symptoms of acute respiratory infections. At least one respiratory virus was detected in 97.5% of patients. The viral co-infection rate was 69.5%. The most frequently detected viruses were human adenovirus in 47.1%, human enterovirus in 40.5%, human rhinovirus in 38%, human bocavirus in 29.8%, human metapneumovirus in 17.4% and human respiratory syncytial virus in 15.7%. Results of qPCR varied widely between sample sites: human adenovirus, human bocavirus and human enterovirus were predominantly detected in tissues, while human rhinovirus was more frequently detected in secretions. Rates of virus detection were remarkably high in tonsil tissues: over 85% in adenoids and close to 70% in palatine tonsils. In addition, overall virus detection rates were higher in more hypertrophic than in smaller adenoids (p = 0.05), and in the particular case of human enteroviruses, they were detected more frequently (p = 0.05) in larger palatine tonsils than in smaller ones. While persistence/latency of DNA viruses in tonsillar tissues has been documented, such is not the case of RNA viruses. Respiratory viruses are highly prevalent in adenoids and palatine tonsils of patients with chronic tonsillar diseases, and persistence of these viruses in tonsils may stimulate chronic inflammation and play a role in the pathogenesis of these diseases.