951 resultados para Upper bound estimate


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Through the processes of the biological pump, carbon is exported to the deep ocean in the form of dissolved and particulate organic matter. There are several ways by which downward export fluxes can be estimated. The great attraction of the 234Th technique is that its fundamental operation allows a downward flux rate to be determined from a single water column profile of thorium coupled to an estimate of POC/234Th ratio in sinking matter. We present a database of 723 estimates of organic carbon export from the surface ocean derived from the 234Th technique. Data were collected from tables in papers published between 1985 and 2013 only. We also present sampling dates, publication dates and sampling areas. Most of the open ocean Longhurst provinces are represented by several measurements. However, the Western Pacific, the Atlantic Arctic, South Pacific and the South Indian Ocean are not well represented. There is a variety of integration depths ranging from surface to 220m. Globally the fluxes ranged from -22 to 125 mmol of C/m**2/d. We believe that this database is important for providing new global estimate of the magnitude of the biological carbon pump.

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Changes in surface water hydrography in the Southern Ocean (eastern Atlantic sector) could be reconstructed on the basis of isotope-geochemical and micropaleontological studies. A total of 75 high quality multicorer sediment surface samples from the southern South Atlantic Ocean and three Quaternary sediment cores, taken on a meridional transect across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, have been investigated. The results of examining stable oxygen isotope compositions of 24 foraminiferal species and morphotypes were compared to the near-surface hydrography. The different foraminifera have been divided into four groups living at different depths in the upper water column. The 8180 differences between shallow-living (e.g. G. bulloides, N. pachyderma) and deeper-dwelling (e. g. G. inflata) species reflect the measured temperature gradient of the upper 250 m in the water column. Thus, the 6180 difference between shallow-living and deeper-living foraminifera can be used as an indicator for the vertical temperature gradient in the surface water of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, which is independent of ice volume. All planktonic foraminifera in the surface sediment samples have been counted. 27 species and morphotypes have been selected, to form a reference data Set for statistical purposes. By using R- and Q-mode principal component analysis these planktonic foraminifera have been divided into four and five assemblages, respectively. The geographic distribution of these assemblages is mainly linked to the temperature of sea-surface waters. The five assemblages (factors) of the Q-mode principal component analysis account for 97.l % of the variance of original data. Following the transferfunction- technique a multiple regression between the Q-mode factors and the actual mean sea-surface environmental parameters resulted in a set of equations. The new transfer function can be used to estimate past sea-surface seasonal temperatures for paleoassemblages of planktonic foraminifera with a precision of approximately ±1.2°C. This transfer function F75-27-5 encompasses in particular the environmental conditions in the Atlantic sector of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. During the last 140,000 years reconstructed sea-surface temperatures fluctuated in the present northern Subantarctic Zone (PS2076-1/3) at an amplitude of up to 7.5°C in summer and of up to 8.5°C in winter. In the present Polarfrontal Zone (PS1754-1) these fluctuations between glacials and interglacials show lower temperatures from 2.5 to 8.5°C in summer and from 1.0 to 5.0°C in winter, respectively. Compared to today, calculated oxygen isotope temperature gradients in the present Subantarctic Zone were lower during the last 140,000 years. This is an indicator for a good mixing of the upper water column. In the Polarfrontal Zone also lower oxygen isotope temperature gradients were found for the glacials 6, 4 and 2. But almost similar temperature gradients as today were found during the interglacial stages 5, 3 and the Holocene, which implicates a mixing of the upper water column compared to present. Paleosalinities were reconstructed by combining d18O-data and the evaluated transfer function paleotemperatures. Especially in the present Polarfrontal Zone (PS1754-1) and in the Antarctic Zone (PS1768-8), a short-term reduction of salinity up to 4 %o, could be detected. This significant reduction in sea-surface water salinity indicates the increased influx of melt-water at the beginning of deglaciation in the southern hemisphere at the end of the last glacial, approximately 16,500-13,000 years ago. The reconstruction of environmental Parameters indicates only small changes in the position of the frontal Systems in the eastern sector of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current during the last 140,000 years. The average position of the Subtropical Front and Subantarctic Front shifted approximately three latitudes between interglacials and glacials. The Antarctic Polar Front shifted approximately four latitudes. But substantial modifications of this scenario have been interpreted for the reconstruction of cold sea-surface temperatures at 41Â S during the oxygen isotope stages 16 and 14 to 12. During these times the Subtropical Front was probably shified up to seven latitudes northwards.

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While the input of river-alkalinity into seawater is relatively well known, the complementary acidity production is poorly understood. Using the major-element budget of seafloor alteration of the upper 500 m of 120-Ma-old oceanic crust at DSDP/ODP Sites 417A, 417D and 418A in the central western Atlantic, we estimate the acidity flux associated with the low-temperature weathering of the upper oceanic crust. The acidity flux is calculated based on major-element fluxes and charge-balance considerations. The relevant chemical fluxes from seawater to the upper crust are 4.1+-0.1; 1.4+-1.4; 2.2+-0.6 and -12+-2 10**11 mol/yr for K, Mg, Na and silicate-Ca, respectively. The associated acidity flux is (3.5+-3)10**11 eq/y. Relative to continental weathering, these fluxes are significant for K and silicate-Ca, but are minor for Na, Mg and acidity. Thus, riverine fluxes of alkalinity are not significantly balanced by acidity fluxes from low-temperature upper ocean crust alteration.

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Soil degradation threatens agricultural production and food security in Sub-Saharan Africa. In the coming decades, soil degradation, in particular soil erosion, will become worse through the expansion of agriculture into savannah and forest and changes in climate. This study aims to improve the understanding of how land use and climate change affect the hydrological cycle and soil erosion rates at the catchment scale. We used the semi-distributed, time-continuous erosion model SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) to quantify runoff processes and sheet and rill erosion in the Upper Ouémé River catchment (14500 km**2, Central Benin) for the period 1998-2005. We could then evaluate a range of land use and climate change scenarios with the SWAT model for the period 2001-2050 using spatial data from the land use model CLUE-S and the regional climate model REMO. Field investigations were performed to parameterise a soil map, to measure suspended sediment concentrations for model calibration and validation and to characterise erosion forms, degraded agricultural fields and soil conservation practices. Modelling results reveal current "hotspots" of soil erosion in the north-western, eastern and north-eastern parts of the Upper Ouémé catchment. As a consequence of rapid expansion of agricultural areas triggered by high population growth (partially caused by migration) and resulting increases in surface runoff and topsoil erosion, the mean sediment yield in the Upper Ouémé River outlet is expected to increase by 42 to 95% by 2025, depending on the land use scenario. In contrast, changes in climate variables led to decreases in sediment yield of 5 to 14% in 2001-2025 and 17 to 24% in 2026-2050. Combined scenarios showed the dominance of land use change leading to changes in mean sediment yield of -2 to +31% in 2001-2025. Scenario results vary considerably within the catchment. Current "hotspots" of soil erosion will aggravate, and a new "hotspot" will appear in the southern part of the catchment. Although only small parts of the Upper Ouémé catchment belong to the most degraded zones in the country, sustainable soil and plant management practices should be promoted in the entire catchment. The results of this study can support planning of soil conservation activities in Benin.

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A total of 21 calcareous nannofossil datums was found in the upper Pliocene and Quaternary sediments recovered from the ocean floor of the North Atlantic during DSDP Leg 94. These datums were correlated to magnetostratigraphy, and ages were estimated by interpolation between magnetic reversals. Calcareous nannofossil assemblages from 549 samples recovered during ODP Leg 117 were studied in order to estimate the age of the sediments of Sites 720, 721, 722, and 731 drilled at the Indus Fan and the Owen Ridge in the Arabian Sea, Indian Ocean. We also showed that the datums above mentioned can be traced into the Indian Ocean. Two new species, namely Helicosphaera omanica and Reticulofenestra ampla, are described.

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The Aptian-lower Albian succession of the Vocontian Basin (SE France) consists of marine hemipelagic sediments including several black shale horizons. The latter are partly of regional and partly of global distribution. This sedimentary succession records the nannoplankton evolution of the Aptian-early Albian interval and thus provides an excellent opportunity to calibrate the calcareous nannofossil record with Tethyan ammonite and planktic foraminiferal biostratigraphy. The calcareous nannofossil biostratigraphy presented in this paper supports previous zonations, but it also provides a much higher resolution and thus improves the correlation of different black shale horizons on a supraregional scale. Up to 23 major (supraregionally significant) and minor (regionally significant) first and last occurrences of calcareous nannofossil taxa are recognized. Nannoconid abundances decrease rapidly in the upper Lower Aptian (nannoconid crisis I, NCI) and in the middle Upper Aptian (nannoconid crisis II, NCII). Both decreases correlate with carbonate-platform drowning events. The upper Lower Aptian interval above the NCI is characterized by high abundances of large specimens of Assipetra infracretacea and Rucinolithus terebrodentarius probably of supraregional significance. The uppermost Aptian-Lower Albian is characterized by high abundances of the calcareous nannoplankton taxon Repagulum parvidentatum, reflecting boreal influence on the Tethyan Realm. This suggests a temporary decrease in surface-water temperatures in the Vocontian Basin.

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Background: Injecting drug use (IDU) and associated mortality appear to be increasing in many parts of the world. IDU is an important factor in HIV transmission. In estimating AIDS mortality attributable to IDU, it is important to take account of premature mortality rates from other causes to ensure that AIDS related mortality among injecting drug users (IDUs) is not overestimated. The current review provides estimates of the excess non-AIDS mortality among IDUs. Method: Searches were conducted with Medline, PsycINFO, and the Web of Science. The authors also searched reference lists of identified papers and an earlier literature review by English et al (1995). Crude. mortality rates (CMRs) were derived from data on the number of deaths, period of follow UP, and number of participants. In estimating the all-cause mortality, two rates were calculated: one that included all cohort studies identified in the search, and one that only included studies that reported on AIDS deaths in their cohort. This provided lower and upper mortality rates, respectively. Results: The current paper derived weighted mortality rates based upon cohort studies that included 179 885 participants, 1 219 422 person-years of observation, and 16 593 deaths. The weighted crude AIDS mortality rate from studies that reported AIDS deaths was approximately 0.78% per annum. The median estimated non-AIDS mortality rate was 1.08% per annum. Conclusions: Illicit drug users have a greatly increased risk of premature death and mortality due to AIDS forms a significant part of that increased risk; it is, however, only part of that risk. Future work needs to examine mortality rates among IDUs in developing countries, and collect data on the relation between HIV and increased mortality due to all causes among this group.

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Statistical physics is employed to evaluate the performance of error-correcting codes in the case of finite message length for an ensemble of Gallager's error correcting codes. We follow Gallager's approach of upper-bounding the average decoding error rate, but invoke the replica method to reproduce the tightest general bound to date, and to improve on the most accurate zero-error noise level threshold reported in the literature. The relation between the methods used and those presented in the information theory literature are explored.

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In this note we discuss upper and lower bound for the ruin probability in an insurance model with very heavy-tailed claims and interarrival times.