Using data mining with time series data in short-term stocks prediction

Data Mining (DM) methods are being increasingly used in prediction with time series data, in addition to traditional statistical approaches. This paper presents a literature review of the use of DM with time series data, focusing on short- time stocks prediction. This is an area that has been attracting a great deal of attention from researchers in the field. The main contribution of this paper is to provide an outline of the use of DM with time series data, using mainly examples related with short-term stocks prediction. This is important to a better understanding of the field. Some of the main trends and open issues will also be introduced.

Multi-criteria optimisation approach to increase the delivered power in radial distribution networks

This study proposes a new methodology to increase the power delivered to any load point in a radial distribution network, through the identification of new investments in order to improve the repair time. This research work is innovative and consists in proposing a full optimisation model based on mixed-integer non-linear programming considering the Pareto front technique. The goal is to achieve a reduction in repair times of the distribution networks components, while minimising the costs of that reduction as well as non-supplied energy costs. The optimisation model considers the distribution network technical constraints, the substation transformer taps, and it is able to choose the capacitor banks size. A case study based on a 33-bus distribution network is presented in order to illustrate in detail the application of the proposed methodology.

Distribution of hepatitis B virus genotypes and viral load levels in Brazilian chronically infected patients in São Paulo city

The objective of the present study was to evaluate the serum viral load in chronically infected Hepatitis B virus (HBV) patients and to investigate the distribution of HBV genotypes in São Paulo city. Quantitative HBV-DNA assays and HBV genotyping have gained importance for predicting HBV disease progression, have been employed for assessing infectivity, for treatment monitoring and for detecting the emergence of drug resistance. Twenty-nine Brazilian patients with suspected chronic hepatitis B were studied, using real time PCR for viral load determination and direct DNA sequencing for the genotyping. The serology revealed chronic HBV infection in 22 samples. The HBV-DNA was positive in 68% samples (15/22). The phylogenetic analysis disclosed that eleven patients were infected with HBV genotype A, two with genotype F and two with genotype D. Thus, the genotype A was the most prevalent in our study.

Integrating wind generation in the distribution network

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Energias Renováveis – Conversão Eléctrica e Utilização Sustentáveis

DISTRIBUTION OF DERMATOPHYTES FROM SOILS OF URBAN AND RURAL AREAS OF CITIES OF PARAIBA STATE, BRAZIL

SUMMARYThe dermatophytes, keratinophilic fungi, represent important microorganisms of the soil microbiota, where there are cosmopolitan species and others with restricted geographic distribution. The aim of this study was to broaden the knowledge about the presence of dermatophytes in soils of urban (empty lots, schools, slums, squares, beaches and homes) and rural areas and about the evolution of their prevalence in soils of varying pH in cities of the four mesoregions of Paraiba State, Brazil. Soil samples were collected from 31 cities of Paraiba State. Of 212 samples, 62% showed fungal growth, particularly those from the Mata Paraibana mesoregion (43.5%), which has a tropical climate, hot and humid. Soil pH varied from 4.65 to 9.06, with 71% of the growth of dermatophytes occurring at alkaline pH (7.02 - 9.06) (ρ = 0.000). Of 131 strains isolated, 57.3% were geophilic species, particularly Trichophyton terrestre(31.3%) and Mycrosporum gypseum(21.4%). M. nanum and T. ajelloi were isolated for the first time in Paraiba State. The zoophilic species identified were T. mentagrophytes var.mentagrophytes (31.3 %) and T. verrucosum (7.6 %), and T. tonsurans was isolated as an anthropophilic species. The soils of urban areas including empty lots, schools, slums and squares of cities in the mesoregions of Paraiba State were found to be the most suitable reservoirs for almost all dermatophytes; their growth may have been influenced by environmental factors, soils with residues of human and/or animal keratin and alkaline pH.

Fasciola hepatica IN BOVINES IN BRAZIL: DATA AVAILABILITY AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION

Fasciolosis is a disease of importance for both veterinary and public health. For the first time, georeferenced prevalence data of Fasciola hepatica in bovines were collected and mapped for the Brazilian territory and data availability was discussed. Bovine fasciolosis in Brazil is monitored on a Federal, State and Municipal level, and to improve monitoring it is essential to combine the data collected on these three levels into one dataset. Data were collected for 1032 municipalities where livers were condemned by the Federal Inspection Service (MAPA/SIF) because of the presence of F. hepatica. The information was distributed over 11 states: Espírito Santo, Goiás, Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso, Pará, Paraná, Rio de Janeiro, Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina and São Paulo. The highest prevalence of fasciolosis was observed in the southern states, with disease clusters along the coast of Paraná and Santa Catarina and in Rio Grande do Sul. Also, temporal variation of the prevalence was observed. The observed prevalence and the kriged prevalence maps presented in this paper can assist both animal and human health workers in estimating the risk of infection in their state or municipality.

Involuntary Rhythmic Leg Movements Time-Locked With the Respiratory Cycle

Involuntary rhythmic leg movements in childhood is an uncommon condition, the generators of which remain unknown. We report on a male 3 years of age with distinct features providing important clues concerning the location of one of these generators. At the age of 7 months, the previously healthy young male started with low frequency, rhythmic, and continuous (both during wakefulness and sleep) flexion/extension movements of the lower limbs. Movements interfered significantly with gait acquisition, and, despite normal cognitive development, he was able to walk only at age 2 years, 4 months. The neurologic examination revealed the absence of automatic stepping in the neonatal period, but was otherwise normal. A polygraphic electroencephalogram/electromyogram EEG/EMG) recording, at the age of 2 years, 9 months, revealed rhythmic and synchronous legs with EMG activity at 0.5 Hz. A more complete polygraphic recording at the age of 3 years, 10 months, showed a lower frequency (0.35 Hz) for the movements, which were time-locked with the respiratory cycle. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of the brain revealed an increased T2 signal in the upper medulla-lower pons regions. The generator of the rhythmic legs movements is postulated to be the respiratory center, connecting with the reticulospinal projecting neurons through an aberrant pathway.

Caracterização dos níveis de atividade física das pessoas com 75 ou mais anos e a sua relação com a auto-perceção de saúde e a dor

RESUMO: A atividade física (AF) surge como uma estratégia constante no combate aos efeitos nefastos do envelhecimento e nesse sentido, surgem recomendações, mundialmente aceites, de que os idosos deverão realizar pelo menos 150 minutos de atividade moderada por semana, aumentar as atividades ligeiras e reduzir os comportamentos sedentários (ACSM, 2010). Contudo não sabemos se os idosos cumprem ou não estas recomendações e ao que corresponde objetivamente aumentar os níveis de atividade ligeira e diminuir os comportamentos sedentários: que proporção ocupam ou deverão ocupar na vida dos idosos? Os benefícios da AF são vastos e amplamente aceites, nomeadamente ao nível da melhoria da autoperceção de saúde (ApS) e redução da dor, no entanto, desconhece-se a relação existente entre o nível de AF e estas variáveis e o estudo desta relação revela-se de extrema importância tendo em conta o seu impacto na funcionalidade, bem-estar e qualidade de vida do idoso. Objetivo: Caracterizar os níveis de AF e os comportamentos sedentários de indivíduos com mais de 75 anos e analisar a sua relação com a auto-perceção de saúde e a dor. Metodologia: Trata-se de um estudo descritivo de correlação, com uma amostra constituída por 66 participantes, com média de idade de 80.1 (±3.83) anos. As variáveis em estudo foram o nível de AF, os comportamentos sedentários, a ApS e a dor. Foi aplicado um protocolo de avaliação, constituído por um questionário de caracterização sociodemográfica e do nível de AF, o Yale Física Activity Survey (YPAS), o MOS Short-Form Health Survey (SF-12) e a Escala Numérica de Dor. Resultados: Os resultados revelaram que os participantes despendiam em média 50% do seu tempo semanal em comportamentos sedentários; 38.5% em atividades ligeiras e 480.23 minutos, ou seja, 11%, em atividades moderadas. Verificou-se uma relação positiva e estatisticamente significativa entre a ApS geral e a quantidade de AF moderada (Rs=0.490,p=0.000), o gasto total energético semanal (Rs=0.231, p=0.031), a pontuação de caminhada (Rs=0.422, p=0.000) e a pontuação de movimento (Rs=0.313, p=0.005); uma associação negativa, estatisticamente significativa, entre a dor e a pontuação de posição de pé (Rs=-0.305,p=0.006); e entre a pontuação de posição de sentado do YPAS e a ApS geral (Rs=-0.342,p=0.003). Conclusões: Os resultados sugerem que os participantes ocupavam metade da sua semana em comportamentos sedentários, contudo em termos da quantidade de AF moderada vão de encontro aos mínimos propostos pelas guidelines internacionais para se obter benefícios de saúde. No entanto, a distribuição, quer em termos de intensidade como de frequência, destas atividades ao longo da semana poderá não ser a mais adequada. O presente estudo aponta ainda para a existência de uma relação positiva entre o nível de AF e a ApS, ou seja, na nossa amostra um maior nível de AF estava associado a uma melhor ApS; uma relação negativa entre o nível de AF e a dor, um maior nível de AF estava também associado a uma menor intensidade de dor; e uma relação negativa entre os comportamentos sedentários e a ApS, ou seja, na amostra de utentes, com mais de 75 anos, em estudo, um score mais elevado de comportamentos sedentários estava associado a uma pior ApS.---------ABSTRACT: Background: Physical activity (PA) has been widely pointed as an answer to overcome aging’s negative impact. In this sense, recommendations have arise supporting that older adults should perform, at least, 150 minutes of moderate intensity PA per week, increase their light intensity PA and decrease sedentary behaviours (ACSM, 2010). Nevertheless, it is unclear whether older adults reach these recommendations or not and, also, what exactly means to increase light intensity PA and to reduce sedentary behaviours: which proportion they fill or should fill in older adults life? PA’s benefits are extensive and widely accepted, namely improvements in self-related health (SRH) and pain reduction, however, the relation between these variables and PA level and sedentary behaviours is still unknown, and we find it extremely important to clarify the nature of this relation considering its impact on older adults functional level, wellbeing and quality of life. Purpose: Characterize older adults, over 75 years old, PA levels and sedentary behaviours and to investigate its relation to self-rated health and pain. Methods: We conducted a descriptive-correlational study, with a geographic convenience sample of 66 participants with a mean age of 80.1 (±3.83) years. Our study variables were PA level, sedentary behaviours, SRH and pain. We applied an assessment protocol, including a socio-demographic and PA level questionnaire, Yale Physical Activity Survey (YPAS), MOS Short-Form Health Survey (SF-12) and Numeric Pain Scale. Results: Revealed that participants spent an average of 50% of their total weekly time in sedentary behaviours; 38.5% in light intensity PA; and 480.23 minutes per week, meaning 11.04%, in moderate intensity PA. We encountered a positive relation, with statistical significance, between global SRH and moderate intensity PA amount (Rs=0.490, p=0.000), total energy expenditure (Rs=0.231, p=0.031), walking score (Rs=0.422, p=0.000) and movement score (Rs=0.313, p=0.005); a negative association, with statistical significance, between pain and standing score (Rs=-0.305, p=0.006); and between sitting score and global SRH (Rs=-0.342,p=0.003). Conclusions: Our results unveil that the subjects in our sample spent half of their week in sedentary behaviours, nonetheless they met moderate intensity PA recommendations to obtain health benefits. However, activities distribution, regarding both its intensity and frequency, throughout the week might not be the most appropriate. This study points towards the existence of a positive relation between PA level and SRH, meaning that, in our sample, a higher PA level was associated to a better SRH; a negative relation between PA level and pain, i.e. a higher PA level was associated to less pain; and a negative relation between sedentary behaviours and SRH, meaning that a higher sitting score was associated to a worse SRH, in the sample of older adults over 75 years in study.

Time diversity solutions to cope with lost packets

A dissertation submitted to Departamento de Engenharia Electrotécnica of Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia of Universidade Nova de Lisboa in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores

The Evolution of Population Distribution on the Iberian Peninsula: A Transnational Approach (1877–2001)

Surpassing the national perspective usually adopted, the authors confirmed the existence of a pattern of population distribution common to the whole Iberian Peninsula in the long run. This pattern is clearly associated with geographical factors. These variables seem to have more weight in explaining changes between 1877/78 and 1940 than in the period from 1940 to 2001. The observation of the cross-border region has shown that proximity to the frontier has not generated any distinct pattern of population density on either side of the boundary line. The spatial coherence of the observed phenomena throughout the Peninsula and of its evolution, independent of the border between states, reinforces the importance of geographic factors in their explanation. At the same time, this verification opens up new issues related to the effect of national political and economic policies.

Frequency of myocarditis in cases of fatal meningococcal infection in children: observations on 31 cases studied at autopsy

The frequency of myocarditis associated with meningococcal disease in children was reported only in two autopsied series (United States and South Africa). Here we report the frequency of associated myocarditis in 31 children who died of meningoccal infection at Hospital Infantil N.S. da Glória in Vitória, Espirito Santo State, Brazil. The diagnosis was confirmed by isolation of Neisseria meningitidis . At least three sections of fragments of both atria and ventricles were studied using the Dallas Criteria for the morphologic diagnosis of myocarditis. The mean age was 47.6 ± 39.8 months and the mean survival time after the onset of symptoms was 46.1 ± 26.5h (12-112h). Myocarditis was present in 13 (41.9%) patients, being of minimal severity in 11 cases and of moderate severity in 2 cases. There were no cases with severe diffuse myocarditis. The frequency of myocarditis was not influenced by sex, presence of meningitis, survival time after the onset of symptoms or use of vasoactive drugs. The frequency of myocarditis reported here was intermediate between the values reported in the only two case series published in the literature (57% in the United States and 27% in South Africa). Although our data confirm the high frequency of myocaditis in meningoccal disease, further investigations are necessary to elucidate the contribution of myocarditis to myocardial dysfunction observed in cases of meningococcal infection in children.

Análise comparativa do impacto das ULS (Unidade Locais de Saúde) e dos ACeS (Agrupamentos de Centros de Saúde) no processo de articulação entre os cuidados de saúde primários e os cuidados de saúde hospitalares

RESUMO - Introdução: O presente trabalho, desenvolvido ao longo dos últimos meses, teve como objetivo analisar comparativamente o impacto das Unidades Locais de Saúde e dos Agrupamentos de Centros de Saúde no processo de articulação entre cuidados de saúde primários e hospitais. Para tal, foram avaliadas as seguintes variáveis: frequência de contacto entre médicos de família e especialistas; percentagem de informação de retorno recebida pelos médicos de família; percentagem de recusas recebida pelos médicos de família; e tempo de espera entre o pedido das consultas hospitalares e a efetivação das mesmas para as especialidades mais referenciadas. As instituições escolhidas para o estudo foram a Unidade Local de Saúde de Castelo Branco e o ACeS Cova da Beira. Metodologia: O instrumento de medida utilizado para este estudo foi um questionário, com questões de resposta aberta e fechada, dirigido a médicos de família da Unidade Local de Saúde de Castelo Branco e do ACeS Cova da Beira, pretendendo assim averiguar a perceção que os mesmos têm em relação às variáveis descritas no tópico da Introdução. Resultados: Segundo dados estatísticos, meramente descritivos, os médicos de família da ULSCB apresentaram uma frequência de contacto inferior aos médicos de família do ACeS com os médicos hospitalares, e a percentagem de informação de retorno recebida pelos médicos de família da ULSCB revelou ser também inferior à recebida pelos médicos de família do ACeS. No entanto, as diferenças encontradas não puderam ser confirmadas para a amostra existente, uma vez que o teste Qui-quadrado foi inconclusivo. Quanto à percentagem de recusas recebida pelos médicos de família de ambas as instituições, e aos tempos de espera para a realização das consultas das especialidades mais referenciadas pelo ACeS Cova da Beira e pela ULSCB, a ULSCB não mostrou desvantagem significativa, mas também não revelou superioridade. Conclusão: As principais conclusões extraídas deste estudo vão no sentido de questionar a eficácia do modelo de organização institucional das ULS | Unidades Locais de Saúde no que diz respeito à articulação entre cuidados de saúde primários e cuidados de saúde hospitalares, em particular, no que se refere à partilha de informação clínica e à eficiência do processo de referenciação para consultas hospitalares.

Structural time series models and the Kalman filter: A concise review

The continued increase in availability of economic data in recent years and, more importantly, the possibility to construct larger frequency time series, have fostered the use (and development) of statistical and econometric techniques to treat them more accurately. This paper presents an exposition of structural time series models by which a time series can be decomposed as the sum of a trend, seasonal and irregular components. In addition to a detailled analysis of univariate speci fications we also address the SUTSE multivariate case and the issue of cointegration. Finally, the recursive estimation and smoothing by means of the Kalman filter algorithm is described taking into account its different stages, from initialisation to parameter s estimation.

Positive self-image over time

This paper incorporates egocentric comparisons into a human capital accumulation model and studies the evolution of positive self image over time. The paper shows that the process of human capital accumulation together with egocentric comparisons imply that positive self image of a cohort is first increasing and then decreasing over time. Additionally, the paper finds that positive self image: (1) peaks earlier in activities where skill depreciation is higher, (2) is smaller in activities where the distribution of income is more dispersed, (3) is not a stable characteristic of an individual, and (4) is higher for more patient individuals.

Low frequency of side effects following an incidental 25 times concentrated dose of yellow fever vaccine

In August/1999, a group of 14 adults from the staff of a private hospital in Contagem -- Minas Gerais State, Brazil, received unintentionally a 25 times concentrated dose of the 17-DD yellow fever vaccine (Bio-Manguinhos), due to a mistake at the reconstitution step. All patients were clinically and laboratorially evaluated at days 5, 13 and 35 post vaccination. Frequency of side effects and clinical observations of this group of individuals were not different from the observed in recipients immunized with normal doses of the vaccine. At the second and third evaluation none of the subjects reported symptoms. None of the patients presented abnormalities at the physical examination at none of the time points and in all cases the blood examination was normal, except for a reduced number of platelets that was detected in one subject at the first and second evaluation and reverted to normal at third evaluation. At the first evaluation point, 8 subjects were serum negative and 6 serum positive for yellow fever at the plaque reduction neutralization test. In 5 subjects the observed titre was 10 times higher as the baseline of 2.36 Log10 mUI/ml. The samples collected at second and third evaluation (13th and 35th days) demonstrated that all subjects responded to the vaccination with the exception of one that did not present a positive result in any of the samples collected. This evaluation confirms the safety of the 17-DD yellow fever vaccine.