Project management under uncertainty: a study on solution methods

Project Management involves onetime endeavors that demand for getting it right the first time. On the other hand, project scheduling, being one of the most modeled project management process stages, still faces a wide gap from theory to practice. Demanding computational models and their consequent call for simplification, divert the implementation of such models in project management tools from the actual day to day project management process. Special focus is being made to the robustness of the generated project schedules facing the omnipresence of uncertainty. An "easy" way out is to add, more or less cleverly calculated, time buffers that always result in project duration increase and correspondingly, in cost. A better approach to deal with uncertainty seems to be to explore slack that might be present in a given project schedule, a fortiori when a non-optimal schedule is used. The combination of such approach to recent advances in modeling resource allocation and scheduling techniques to cope with the increasing flexibility in resources, as can be expressed in "Flexible Resource Constraint Project Scheduling Problem" (FRCPSP) formulations, should be a promising line of research to generate more adequate project management tools. In reality, this approach has been frequently used, by project managers in an ad-hoc way.

Nonparametric estimation of the survival function for ordered multivariate failure time data: a comparative study

In longitudinal studies of disease, patients may experience several events through a follow-up period. In these studies, the sequentially ordered events are often of interest and lead to problems that have received much attention recently. Issues of interest include the estimation of bivariate survival, marginal distributions and the conditional distribution of gap times. In this work we consider the estimation of the survival function conditional to a previous event. Different nonparametric approaches will be considered for estimating these quantities, all based on the Kaplan-Meier estimator of the survival function. We explore the finite sample behavior of the estimators through simulations. The different methods proposed in this article are applied to a data set from a German Breast Cancer Study. The methods are used to obtain predictors for the conditional survival probabilities as well as to study the influence of recurrence in overall survival.

Forecasting time series combining Holt-Winters and bootstrap approaches

Publicado em "AIP Conference Proceedings", Vol. 1648

Patterns of Mycobacterium tuberculosis-complex excretion and characterization of super-shedders in naturally-infected wild boar and red deer

Wild boar (Sus scrofa) and red deer (Cervus elaphus) are the main maintenance hosts for bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in continental Europe. Understanding Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTC) excretion routes is crucial to define strategies to control bTB in free-ranging populations, nevertheless available information is scarce. Aiming at filling this gap, four different MTC excretion routes (oronasal, bronchial-alveolar, fecal and urinary) were investigated by molecular methods in naturally infected hunter-harvested wild boar and red deer. In addition MTC concentrations were estimated by the Most Probable Number method. MTC DNA was amplified in all types of excretion routes. MTC DNA was amplified in at least one excretion route from 83.0% (CI95 70.8-90.8) of wild ungulates with bTB-like lesions. Oronasal or bronchial-alveolar shedding were detected with higher frequency than fecal shedding (p < 0.001). The majority of shedders yielded MTC concentrations <10(3) CFU/g or mL. However, from those ungulates from which oronasal, bronchial-alveolar and fecal samples were available, 28.2% of wild boar (CI95 16.6-43.8) and 35.7% of red deer (CI95 16.3-61.2) yielded MTC concentrations >10(3) CFU/g or mL (referred here as super-shedders). Red deer have a significantly higher risk of being super-shedders compared to wild boar (OR = 11.8, CI95 2.3-60.2). The existence of super-shedders among the naturally infected population of wild boar and red deer is thus reported here for the first time and MTC DNA concentrations greater than the minimum infective doses were estimated in excretion samples from both species.

Comparing different methods to measure biofilm thickness: the techniques are: optical coherence tomography, confocal laser scanning microscopy and low load compression test

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Biomédica (área de especialização em Engenharia Clínica)

Common symptoms of Nepalese soft contact lens wearers: A pilot study

Aim: To determine the common symptoms in current soft contact lens (CL) wearers and theirassociation with other factors among Nepalese population.Methods: All the current CL wearers who started to wear soft CL in Nepal Eye Hospital between July 2007 and June 2012 were invited for the participation. Frequency of the ten most common symptoms, divided into never, occasionally, frequently and consistent were recorded. Association between degree of symptoms with other factors, e.g. age, gender, profession, cigarette smoking, ethnicity, level of education and duration and wearing modality of CL wear were analyzed.Results: Out of 129 subjects participated in this study, 67% were female; the mean age of the subjects was 23.9 ± 4.3 years. Ninety seven percent of them had at least one symptom occasionally or frequently or consistently. Discomfort was found in 88.4% of the total subjects.Other common symptoms were foreign body sensation in 73.6%, redness in 65.9%, reduced wearing time in 63.6% and dryness in 62.8%. Symptoms were found occasionally in the majority of subjects. Degree of symptoms was not associated with age, gender, profession, education status, ethnicity of subjects and duration or modality of lens wear (p > 0.05) but was positively associated with passive cigarette smoking (p < 0.001).Conclusion: Almost all of the Nepalese soft CL wearers had some types of symptoms at least occasionally. Discomfort was the most common symptom. Degree of symptoms was associated with the passive smoking but not with other factors like age, sex, profession and duration of lens wear.

Historical analysis of the Brazilian cervical cancer screening program from 2006 to 2013: a time for reflection

BACKGROUND: The Cervical Cancer Database of the Brazilian National Health Service (SISCOLO) contains information regarding all cervical cytological tests and, if properly explored, can be used as a tool for monitoring and managing the cervical cancer screening program. The aim of this study was to perform a historical analysis of the cervical cancer screening program in Brazil from 2006 to 2013. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The data necessary to calculate quality indicators were obtained from the SISCOLO, a Brazilian health system tool. Joinpoint analysis was used to calculate the annual percentage change. RESULTS: We observed important trends showing decreased rates of low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (LSIL) and high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSIL) and an increased rate of rejected exams from 2009 to 2013. The index of positivity was maintained at levels below those indicated by international standards; very low frequencies of unsatisfactory cases were observed over the study period, which partially contradicts the low rate of positive cases. The number of positive cytological diagnoses was below that expected, considering that developed countries with low frequencies of cervical cancer detect more lesions annually. CONCLUSIONS: The evolution of indicators from 2006 to 2013 suggests that actions must be taken to improve the effectiveness of cervical cancer control in Brazil.

Integration methods in dynamic analysis

"Series title: Springerbriefs in applied sciences and technology, ISSN 2191-530X"

Peripheral arterial embolism. Report of hospitalized cases

OBJECTIVE: We analyzed the frequency of peripheral embolisms, the underlying heart disease,triggering factors, the sites of the emboli, and evolution of the patients. METHODS: We analyzed 29 cases of peripheral arterial embolism out of a total of 20,211 hospitalizations in a cardiology center in the city of São Paulo. The age was 51.89±18.66 years, and 15 were males. RESULTS: Embolism in the right lower limb occurred in 18 patients (62.0%),in the left lower 11(37.9%) and right upper 3 (10.3%) limbs, and in the left arm (1). Four patients had embolism in two limbs. The heart disease, mitral valvar heart disease (9 patients - 31.0%); infective endocarditis (7- 24.1%); dilated cardiomyopathy (6 - 20.6%); ischemic coronary heart disease (6 patients - 20.6%); and one patient with cor pulmonale. Atrial fibrillation was observed in 20 patients (68.9%), chronic in 12 patients (41.3% ) and acute in 8 (27.5%). All patients with mitral valvar heart disease had atrial fibrillation, chronic in 8 patients (88.8%); patients with cardiomyopathy and coronary heart disease, 4 in each group had atrial fibrillation, acute in 60% of the patients.Patients with infective endocarditis, 3 had staphylococcus and 2 Gram-negative bacteria. In the follow-up, 2 patients (6.8%) required limbs amputation, and 5 (17.2%) died due to embolism. CONCLUSION: Most of the time, embolism does not cause permanent complications. Our data highlight the importance of anticoagulation for patients acute atrial fibrillation in myocardial dysfunction and for patients with chronic atrial fibrillation in cases of mitral valvar heart disease to prevent peripheral embolism.

End-systolic pressure-diameter relation of the left ventricle during transient and sustained elevations of blood pressure

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of transient and sustained variations in cardiac load on the values of the end-systolic pressure-diameter relation (ESPDR) of the left ventricle. METHODS: We studied 13 dogs under general anesthesia and autonomic blockade. Variations of cardiac loads were done by elevation of blood pressure by mechanical constriction of the aorta. Two protocols were used in each animal: gradual peaking and decreasing pressure variation, the "transient arterial hypertension protocol" (TAH), and a quick and 10 min sustained elevation, the "sustained arterial hypertension protocol"(SAH). Then, we compared the ESDR in these two situations. RESULTS: Acute elevation of arterial pressure, being it "transitory" or "sustained", did not alter the heart frequency and increased similarly the preload and after load. However, they acted differently in end systolic pressure-diameter relation. It was greater in the SAH than TAH protocol, 21.0±7.3mmHg/mm vs. 9.2±1.2mmHg/mm (p<0.05). CONCLUSION: The left ventricular ESPDR values determined during sustained pressure elevations were higher than those found during transient pressure elevations. The time-dependent activation of myocardial contractility associated with the Frank-Starling mechanism is the major factor in inotropic stimulation during sustained elevations of blood pressure, determining an increase in the ESPDR values.

Atrial activation during sinus rhythm in patients with rheumatic and non-rheumatic paroxysmal atrial fibrillation. Frequency-domain analysis using signal-averaged electrocardiography

OBJECTIVE: Using P-wave signal-averaged electrocardiography, we assessed the patterns of atrial electrical activation in patients with idiopathic atrial fibrillation as compared with patterns in patients with atrial fibrillation associated with structural heart disease. METHODS: Eighty patients with recurrent paroxysmal atrial fibrillation were divided into 3 groups as follows: group I - 40 patients with atrial fibrillation associated with non-rheumatic heart disease; group II - 25 patients with rheumatic atrial fibrillation; and group III - 15 patients with idiopathic atrial fibrillation. All patients underwent P-wave signal-averaged electrocardiography for frequency-domain analysis using spectrotemporal mapping and statistical techniques for detecting and quantifying intraatrial conduction disturbances. RESULTS: We observed an important fragmentation in atrial electrical conduction in 27% of the patients in group I, 64% of the patients in group II, and 67% of the patients in group III (p=0.003). CONCLUSION: Idiopathic atrial fibrillation has important intraatrial conduction disturbances. These alterations are similar to those observed in individuals with rheumatic atrial fibrillation, suggesting the existence of some degree of structural involvement of the atrial myocardium that cannot be detected with conventional electrocardiography and echocardiography.

Autonomic Modulation of the Heart in Systemic Arterial Hypertension

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the heart rate variability in patients with mild to moderate systemic arterial hypertension. METHODS: Thirty-two healthy (group I) and 70 systemic arterial hypertensive (group II) individuals, divided according to age (40 to 59 and 60 to 80 years old, respectively) and with a similar distribution by sex were studied. Thirty-one had left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH), 22 were overweight, and 16 had Type II diabetes mellitus. Smoking, alcohol ingestion, and sedentary habits were the same between groups. Variability in heart rate was analyzed in the time domain, using standard deviations of normal RR intervals (SDNN) and the differences between maximal brady- and tachycardia (D-BTmax) during sustained inspiration. Analysis of the frequency band of the power spectrum between 0.05 and 0.40 Hz at rest and during controlled respiration was chosen for analysis of the frequency domain. RESULTS: In both time and frequency domains, variables were lower in group II than in group I. Within groups, statistically significant variables were only found for individuals in the 40 to 59 year old group. The presence of LVH, overweight, or diabetes mellitus did not influence the variability in heart rate to a significant extent. CONCLUSION: Variability in heart rate was a valuable instrument for analyzing autonomic modulation of the heart in arterial hypertension. The autonomic system undergoes significant losses in cardio-modulatory capacity, more evident in subjects between 40 and 59 years old. In those over 60 years old, reduced variability in heart rate imposed by aging was not significantly influenced by the presence of systemic arterial hypertension.

Analysis of the Prevalence of Ventricular Late Potentials in the Late Phase of Myocardial Infarction Based on the Site of Infarction

OBJECTIVE: The initial site of myocardial infarction (MI) may influence the prevalence of ventricular late potentials (VLP), high-frequency signals, due to the time course of ventricular activation. The prevalence of VLP in a period of more than 2 years after acute MI was assessed focusing on the initially injured wall . METHODS: The prevalence of VLP in a late phase after MI (median of 924 days) in anterior/antero-septal and inferior/infero-dorsal wall lesion was analyzed using signal-averaged electrocardiogram in time domain. The diagnostic performance of the filters employed for analysis on was tested at high-pass cut-off frequencies of 25 Hz, 40 Hz and 80 Hz. RESULTS: The duration of the ventricular activation and its terminal portion were larger in inferior than anterior infarction, at high-pass cut-off frequencies of 40 Hz and 80 Hz. In patients with ventricular tachycardia, these differences were more remarked. The prevalence of ventricular late potentials was three times greater in inferior than anterior infarction. CONCLUSION: Late after myocardial infarction, the prevalence and the duration of ventricular late potentials are greater in lesions of inferior/infero-dorsal than anterior/antero-septal wall confirming their temporal process, reflecting their high-frequency content.

Consequences of the Prolonged Waiting Time for Patients Candidates for Heart Surgery

OBJECTIVE - To assess mortality and the psychological repercussions of the prolonged waiting time for candidates for heart surgery. METHODS - From July 1999 to May 2000, using a standardized questionnaire, we carried out standardized interviews and semi-structured psychological interviews with 484 patients with coronary heart disease, 121 patients with valvular heart diseases, and 100 patients with congenital heart diseases. RESULTS - The coefficients of mortality (deaths per 100 patients/year) were as follows: patients with coronary heart disease, 5.6; patients with valvular heart diseases, 12.8; and patients with congenital heart diseases, 3.1 (p<0.0001). The survival curve was lower in patients with valvular heart diseases than in patients with coronary heart disease and congenital heart diseases (p<0.001). The accumulated probability of not undergoing surgery was higher in patients with valvular heart diseases than in the other patients (p<0.001), and, among the patients with valvular heart diseases, this probability was higher in females than in males (p<0.01). Several patients experienced intense anxiety and attributed their adaptive problems in the scope of love, professional, and social lives, to not undergoing surgery. CONCLUSION - Mortality was high, and even higher among the patients with valvular heart diseases, with negative psychological and social repercussions.

Self-perception and dissatisfaction with weight does not depend on the frequency of physical activity

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the level of satisfaction with body weight and the self-perception of the weight/height ratio and to verify the influence of the frequency of present and past physical activity on these variables. METHODS: Using questionnaires or interviews, we obtained height data, reported and desired weight, self-perception of the weight/height ratio, and the frequency of current physical activity in 844 adults (489 women). Of these, evaluated the frequency of physical activity during high school of 193 individuals,and we measured their height and weight. RESULTS: Less than 2/3 of the individuals had body mass index between 20 and 24.9 kg/m2. A tendency existed to overestimate height by less than 1 cm and to underestimate weight by less than 1kg. Desired weight was less than that reported (p<0.001), and only 20% were satisfied with their current weight. Only 42% of men and 25% of women exercised regularly. No association was found between the frequency of physical activity and the variables height, weight, and body mass index, and the level of satisfaction with current weight. CONCLUSION: Height and weight reported seem to be valid for epidemological studies, and great dissatisfaction with body weight and a distorted self-perception of height/weight ratio exists, especially in women, regardless of the frequency of physical activity.