Integrating textual analysis and evidential reasoning for decision making in Engineering design

Decision making is an important element throughout the life-cycle of large-scale projects. Decisions are critical as they have a direct impact upon the success/outcome of a project and are affected by many factors including the certainty and precision of information. In this paper we present an evidential reasoning framework which applies Dempster-Shafer Theory and its variant Dezert-Smarandache Theory to aid decision makers in making decisions where the knowledge available may be imprecise, conflicting and uncertain. This conceptual framework is novel as natural language based information extraction techniques are utilized in the extraction and estimation of beliefs from diverse textual information sources, rather than assuming these estimations as already given. Furthermore we describe an algorithm to define a set of maximal consistent subsets before fusion occurs in the reasoning framework. This is important as inconsistencies between subsets may produce results which are incorrect/adverse in the decision making process. The proposed framework can be applied to problems involving material selection and a Use Case based in the Engineering domain is presented to illustrate the approach. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Detection of visual-field deterioration by Glaucoma Progression Analysis and Threshold Noiseless Trend programs

BACKGROUND: To compare the ability of Glaucoma Progression Analysis (GPA) and Threshold Noiseless Trend (TNT) programs to detect visual-field deterioration.

METHODS: Patients with open-angle glaucoma followed for a minimum of 2 years and a minimum of seven reliable visual fields were included. Progression was assessed subjectively by four masked glaucoma experts, and compared with GPA and TNT results. Each case was judged to be stable, deteriorated or suspicious of deterioration

RESULTS: A total of 56 eyes of 42 patients were followed with a mean of 7.8 (SD 1.0) tests over an average of 5.5 (1.04) years. Interobserver agreement to detect progression was good (mean kappa = 0.57). Progression was detected in 10-19 eyes by the experts, in six by GPA and in 24 by TNT. Using the consensus expert opinion as the gold standard (four clinicians detected progression), the GPA sensitivity and specificity were 75% and 83%, respectively, while the TNT sensitivity and specificity was 100% and 77%, respectively.

CONCLUSION: TNT showed greater concordance with the experts than GPA in the detection of visual-field deterioration. GPA showed a high specificity but lower sensitivity, mainly detecting cases of high focality and pronounced mean defect slopes.

Stability Analysis and Implementation of a Decentralized Formation Control Strategy for Unmanned Vehicles

This paper presents a new methodology for solving the multi-vehicle formation control problem. It employs a unique extension-decomposition-aggregation scheme to transform the overall complex formation control problem into a group of subproblems, which work via boundary interactions or disturbances. Thus, it is proved that the overall formation system is exponentially stable in the sense of Lyapunov, if all the individual augmented subsystems (IASs) are stable. Linear matrix inequality-based H8 control methodology is employed to design the decentralized formation controllers to reject the impact of the formation changes being treated as boundary disturbances and guarantee the stability of all the IASs, consequently maintaining the stability of the overall formation system. Simulation studies are performed to verify the stability, performance, and effectiveness of the proposed strategy.

Application of factor analysis and geostatistics to identify processes controlling the distribution and bioaccessibility of trace elements in Northern Ireland soils

Geologic and environmental factors acting over varying spatial scales can control
trace element distribution and mobility in soils. In turn, the mobility of an element in soil will affect its oral bioaccessibility. Geostatistics, kriging and principal component analysis (PCA) were used to explore factors and spatial ranges of influence over a suite of 8 element oxides, soil organic carbon (SOC), pH, and the trace elements nickel (Ni), vanadium (V) and zinc (Zn). Bioaccessibility testing was carried out previously using the Unified BARGE Method on a sub-set of 91 soil samples from the Northern Ireland Tellus1 soil archive. Initial spatial mapping of total Ni, V and Zn concentrations shows their distributions are correlated spatially with local geologic formations, and prior correlation analyses showed that statistically significant controls were exerted over trace element bioaccessibility by the 8 oxides, SOC and pH. PCA applied to the geochemistry parameters of the bioaccessibility sample set yielded three principal components accounting for 77% of cumulative variance in the data
set. Geostatistical analysis of oxide, trace element, SOC and pH distributions using 6862 sample locations also identified distinct spatial ranges of influence for these variables, concluded to arise from geologic forming processes, weathering processes, and localised soil chemistry factors. Kriging was used to conduct a spatial PCA of Ni, V and Zn distributions which identified two factors comprising the majority of distribution variance. This was spatially accounted for firstly by basalt rock types, with the second component associated with sandstone and limestone in the region. The results suggest trace element bioaccessibility and distribution is controlled by chemical and geologic processes which occur over variable spatial ranges of influence.

Behaviour analysis and evidence-based education

Education has a powerful and long-term effect on people’s lives and therefore should be based on evidence of what works best. This assertion warrants a definition of what constitutes good research evidence. Two research designs that are often thought to come from diametrically opposed fields, single-subject research designs and randomised controlled-trials, are described and common features, such as the use of probabilistic assumptions and the aim of discovering causal relations are delineated. Differences between the two research designs are also highlighted and this is used as the basis to set out how these two research designs might better be used to complement one another. Recommendations for future action are made accordingly.