Kassavirtojen ennustaminen projektilähtöisessä liiketoiminnassa

Työn tavoitteena oli vastata ensisijaisesti kysymykseen, voidaanko projektiliiketoiminnan kassavirtoja ennustaa 3-15 kuukauden aikavälillä ja jos voidaan, niin miten ja millä tarkkuudella. Tutkimus toteutettiin teoriatutkimuksena aihepiiristä ja tutkimuksen pohjalta luotiin malli kassavirtojen ennustamiseen kohdeyritykselle 3-15 kuukauden aikavälille. Mallin laatimiseksi oli hyödynnettävissä viiden vuoden aineistot kohdeyrityksen kassavirroista, budjetista ja liiketoiminnan toteumatiedoista. Työn teoriaosiossa tutkittiin kirjallisuuden pohjalta projektiliiketoimintaa, budjetointia sekä kassavirtoja ja niiden ennustamista. Tämän jälkeen teorian pohjalta rakennettiin kohdeyritykselle historiatietoihin perustuva malli kassavirtojen ennustamiseksi. Mallia rakennettaessa määritettiin ensimmäiseksi merkittävimmät kassavirran komponentit, minkä jälkeen niille laadittiin ennustemenetelmät. Samalla arvioitiin millä tarkkuudella projektilähtöisen liiketoiminnan kassavirtoja pystytään ennustamaan. Tutkimuksen tuloksena oli historiatietoihin pohjautuva ennustemalli kohdeyritykselle. Mallilla tehtyjen testien pohjalta voitiin todeta, että projektilähtöisen liiketoiminnan kassavirtoja pystytään ennustamaan melko hyvällä tarkkuudella, ennustaminen ei kuitenkaan ole niin luotettavaa, kuin jos ennustettaisiin tasaisemmin kehittyvän liiketoiminnan kassavirtoja. Historiaan pohjautuvaa mallia käytettäessä pitää myös muistaa, että mikään ei takaa historian toistumista tulevaisuudessa.

Dual light barrier method for six degrees of freedom tool center point calibration of an industrial robot

Tool center point calibration is a known problem in industrial robotics. The major focus of academic research is to enhance the accuracy and repeatability of next generation robots. However, operators of currently available robots are working within the limits of the robot´s repeatability and require calibration methods suitable for these basic applications. This study was conducted in association with Stresstech Oy, which provides solutions for manufacturing quality control. Their sensor, based on the Barkhausen noise effect, requires accurate positioning. The accuracy requirement admits a tool center point calibration problem if measurements are executed with an industrial robot. Multiple possibilities are available in the market for automatic tool center point calibration. Manufacturers provide customized calibrators to most robot types and tools. With the handmade sensors and multiple robot types that Stresstech uses, this would require great deal of labor. This thesis introduces a calibration method that is suitable for all robots which have two digital input ports free. It functions with the traditional method of using a light barrier to detect the tool in the robot coordinate system. However, this method utilizes two parallel light barriers to simultaneously measure and detect the center axis of the tool. Rotations about two axes are defined with the center axis. The last rotation about the Z-axis is calculated for tools that have different width of X- and Y-axes. The results indicate that this method is suitable for calibrating the geometric tool center point of a Barkhausen noise sensor. In the repeatability tests, a standard deviation inside robot repeatability was acquired. The Barkhausen noise signal was also evaluated after recalibration and the results indicate correct calibration. However, future studies should be conducted using a more accurate manipulator, since the method employs the robot itself as a measuring device.

Accuracy of replication in the polymerase chain reaction. Comparison between Thermotoga maritima DNA polymerase and Thermus aquaticus DNA polymerase

For certain applications of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR), it may be necessary to consider the accuracy of replication. The breakthrough that made PCR user friendly was the commercialization of Thermus aquaticus (Taq) DNA polymerase, an enzyme that would survive the high temperatures needed for DNA denaturation. The development of enzymes with an inherent 3' to 5' exonuclease proofreading activity, lacking in Taq polymerase, would be an improvement when higher fidelity is needed. We used the forward mutation assay to compare the fidelity of Taq polymerase and Thermotoga maritima (ULTMA™) DNA polymerase, an enzyme that does have proofreading activity. We did not find significant differences in the fidelity of either enzyme, even when using optimal buffer conditions, thermal cycling parameters, and number of cycles (0.2% and 0.13% error rates for ULTMA™ and Taq, respectively, after reading about 3,000 bases each). We conclude that for sequencing purposes there is no difference in using a DNA polymerase that contains an inherent 3' to 5' exonuclease activity for DNA amplification. Perhaps the specificity and fidelity of PCR are complex issues influenced by the nature of the target sequence, as well as by each PCR component.

Serodiagnosis of Helicobacter pylori infection by Cobas Core ELISA in adults from Minas Gerais, Brazil

We evaluated the accuracy of a 2nd generation ELISA to detect Helicobacter pylori infection in adults from a developing country in view of variations in sensitivity and specificity reported for different populations. We studied 97 non-consecutive patients who underwent endoscopy for evaluation of dispeptic symptoms. The presence of H. pylori was determined in antral biopsy specimens by culture, by the preformed urease test and in carbolfuchsin-stained smears. Patients were considered to be H. pylori positive if at least two of the three tests presented a positive result or if the culture was positive, and negative if the three tests were negative. Sixty-five adults (31 with peptic ulcer) were H. pylori positive and 32 adults were H. pylori negative. Antibodies were detected by Cobas Core anti-H. pylori EIA in 62 of 65 H. pylori-positive adults and in none of the negative adults. The sensitivity, specificity and positive and negative predictive values of the test were 95.4, 100, 100 and 91.4%, respectively. The Cobas Core anti-H. pylori EIA presented high sensitivity and specificity when employed for a population in Brazil, permitting the use of the test both to confirm the clinical diagnosis and to perform epidemiologic surveys.

Reference values for lung function tests: I. Static volumes

Static lung volume (LV) measurements have a number of clinical and research applications; however, no previous studies have provided reference values for such tests using a healthy sample of the adult Brazilian population. With this as our main purpose, we prospectively evaluated 100 non-smoking subjects (50 males and 50 females), 20 to 80 years old, randomly selected from more than 8,000 individuals. Gender-specific linear prediction equations were developed by multiple regression analysis with total lung capacity (TLC), functional residual capacity (FRC), residual volume (RV), RV/TLC ratio and inspiratory capacity (IC) as dependent variables, and with age, height, weight, lean body mass and indexes of physical fitness as independent ones. Simpler demographic and anthropometric variables were as useful as more complex measurements in predicting LV values, independent of gender and age (R2 values ranging from 0.49 to 0.78, P<0.001). Interestingly, prediction equations from North American and European studies overestimated the LV at low volumes and underestimated them at high volumes (P<0.05). Our results, therefore, provide a more appropriate frame of reference to evaluate the normalcy of static lung volume values in Brazilian males and females aged 20 to 80 years.

Reference values for lung function tests: II. Maximal respiratory pressures and voluntary ventilation

The strength of the respiratory muscles can be evaluated from static measurements (maximal inspiratory and expiratory pressures, MIP and MEP) or inferred from dynamic maneuvers (maximal voluntary ventilation, MVV). Although these data could be suitable for a number of clinical and research applications, no previous studies have provided reference values for such tests using a healthy, randomly selected sample of the adult Brazilian population. With this main purpose, we prospectively evaluated 100 non-smoking subjects (50 males and 50 females), 20 to 80 years old, selected from more than 8,000 individuals. Gender-specific linear prediction equations for MIP, MEP and MVV were developed by multiple regression analysis: age and, secondarily, anthropometric measurements explained up to 56% of the variability of the dependent variables. The most cited previous studies using either Caucasian or non-Caucasian samples systematically underestimated the observed values of MIP (P<0.05). Interestingly, the self-reported level of regular physical activity and maximum aerobic power correlates strongly with both respiratory and peripheral muscular strength (knee extensor peak torque) (P<0.01). Our results, therefore, provide a new frame of reference to evaluate the normalcy of some useful indexes of respiratory muscle strength in Brazilian males and females aged 20 to 80.

Reference values for lung function tests: III. Carbon monoxide diffusing capacity (transfer factor)

Carbon monoxide diffusing capacity (DLCO) or transfer factor (TLCO) is a particularly useful test of the appropriateness of gas exchange across the lung alveolocapillary membrane. With the purpose of establishing predictive equations for DLCO using a non-smoking sample of the adult Brazilian population, we prospectively evaluated 100 subjects (50 males and 50 females aged 20 to 80 years), randomly selected from more than 8,000 individuals. Gender-specific linear prediction equations were developed by multiple regression analysis with single breath (SB) absolute and volume-corrected (VA) DLCO values as dependent variables. In the prediction equations, age (years) and height (cm) had opposite effects on DLCOSB (ml min-1 mmHg-1), independent of gender (-0.13 (age) + 0.32 (height) - 13.07 in males and -0.075 (age) + 0.18 (height) + 0.20 in females). On the other hand, height had a positive effect on DLCOSB but a negative one on DLCOSB/VA (P<0.01). We found that the predictive values from the most cited studies using predominantly Caucasian samples were significantly different from the actually measured values (P<0.05). Furthermore, oxygen uptake at maximal exercise (VO2max) correlated highly to DLCOSB (R = 0.71, P<0.001); this variable, however, did not maintain an independent role to explain the VO2max variability in the multiple regression analysis (P>0.05). Our results therefore provide an original frame of reference for either DLCOSB or DLCOSB/VA in Brazilian males and females aged 20 to 80 years, obtained from the standardized single-breath technique.

Post-processing and analysis of tracked hand trajectories

In this thesis, the suitability of different trackers for finger tracking in high-speed videos was studied. Tracked finger trajectories from the videos were post-processed and analysed using various filtering and smoothing methods. Position derivatives of the trajectories, speed and acceleration were extracted for the purposes of hand motion analysis. Overall, two methods, Kernelized Correlation Filters and Spatio-Temporal Context Learning tracking, performed better than the others in the tests. Both achieved high accuracy for the selected high-speed videos and also allowed real-time processing, being able to process over 500 frames per second. In addition, the results showed that different filtering methods can be applied to produce more appropriate velocity and acceleration curves calculated from the tracking data. Local Regression filtering and Unscented Kalman Smoother gave the best results in the tests. Furthermore, the results show that tracking and filtering methods are suitable for high-speed hand-tracking and trajectory-data post-processing.

A priori estimation of accuracy and of the number of wells to be employed in limiting dilution assays

The use of limiting dilution assay (LDA) for assessing the frequency of responders in a cell population is a method extensively used by immunologists. A series of studies addressing the statistical method of choice in an LDA have been published. However, none of these studies has addressed the point of how many wells should be employed in a given assay. The objective of this study was to demonstrate how a researcher can predict the number of wells that should be employed in order to obtain results with a given accuracy, and, therefore, to help in choosing a better experimental design to fulfill one's expectations. We present the rationale underlying the expected relative error computation based on simple binomial distributions. A series of simulated in machina experiments were performed to test the validity of the a priori computation of expected errors, thus confirming the predictions. The step-by-step procedure of the relative error estimation is given. We also discuss the constraints under which an LDA must be performed.

Effect of asthma severity on symptom perception in childhood asthma

Individual ability to perceive airway obstruction varies substantially. The factors influencing the perception of asthma are probably numerous and not well established in children. The present study was designed to examine the influence of asthma severity, use of preventive medication, age and gender on the association between respiratory symptoms (RS) and peak expiratory flow (PEF) rates in asthmatic children. We followed 92 asthmatic children, aged 6 to 16 years, for five months. Symptom scores were recorded daily and PEF was measured twice a day. The correlations among variables at the within-person level over time were analyzed for each child and for the pooled data by multivariate analysis. After pooling the data, there was a significant (P<0.05) correlation between each symptom and PEF; 60% of the children were accurate perceivers (defined by a statistically significant correlation between symptoms and PEF across time) for diurnal symptoms and 37% for nocturnal symptoms. The accuracy of perception was independent of asthma severity, age, gender or the use of preventive medication. Symptom perception is inaccurate in a substantial number of asthmatic children, independently of clinical severity, age, gender or use of preventive medication. It is not clear why some asthmatic patients are capable of accurately perceiving the severity of airway obstruction while others are not.

Accuracy improvement of a demand forecasting model

This research concerns different statistical methods that assist to increase the demand forecasting accuracy of company X’s forecasting model. Current forecasting process was analyzed in details. As a result, graphical scheme of logical algorithm was developed. Based on the analysis of the algorithm and forecasting errors, all the potential directions for model future improvements in context of its accuracy were gathered into the complete list. Three improvement directions were chosen for further practical research, on their basis, three test models were created and verified. Novelty of this work lies in the methodological approach of the original analysis of the model, which identified its critical points, as well as the uniqueness of the developed test models. Results of the study formed the basis of the grant of the Government of St. Petersburg.

The inactivation of the basolateral nucleus of the rat amygdala has an anxiolytic effect in the elevated T-maze and light/dark transition tests

Pharmacological evidence indicates that the basolateral nucleus of the amygdala (BLA) is involved in the mediation of inhibitory avoidance but not of escape behavior in the elevated T-maze test. These defensive responses have been associated with generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) and panic disorder, respectively. In the present study, we determined whether the BLA plays a differential role in the control of inhibitory avoidance and escape responses in the elevated T-maze. Male Wistar rats (250-280 g, N = 9-10 in each treatment group) were pre-exposed to one of the open arms of the maze for 30 min and 24 h later tested in the model after inactivation of the BLA by a local injection of the GABA A receptor agonist muscimol (8 nmol in 0.2 µL). It has been shown that a prior forced exposure to one of the open arms of the maze, by shortening latencies to withdrawal from the open arm during the test, improves the escape task as a behavioral index of panic. The effects of muscimol in the elevated T-maze were compared to those caused by this GABA agonist in the avoidance reaction generated in the light/dark transition test. This defensive behavior has also been associated with GAD. In the elevated T-maze, intra-BLA injection of muscimol impaired inhibitory avoidance (control: 187.70 ± 14.90 s, muscimol: 37.10 ± 2.63 s), indicating an anxiolytic effect, without interfering with escape performance. The drug also showed an anxiolytic effect in the light/dark transition test as indicated by the increase in the time spent in the lighted compartment (control: 23.50 ± 2.45 s, muscimol: 47.30 ± 4.48 s). The present findings point to involvement of the BLA in the modulation of defensive responses that have been associated with GAD.

Accuracy in book papers' sales forecasting

The main objective of this thesis was to study if the quantitative sales forecasting methods will enhance the accuracy of the sales forecast in comparison to qualitative sales forecasting method. A literature review in the field of forecasting was conducted, including general sales forecasting process, forecasting methods and techniques and forecasting accuracy measurement. In the empirical part of the study the accuracy of the forecasts provided by both qualitative and quantitative methods is being studied and compared in the case of short, medium and long term forecasts. The SAS® Forecast Server –tool was used in creating the quantitative forecasts.

Dose-response effects of systemic anandamide administration in mice sequentially submitted to the open field and elevated plus-maze tests

The endocannabinoid system is involved in the control of many physiological functions, including the control of emotional states. In rodents, previous exposure to an open field increases the anxiety-like behavior in the elevated plus-maze. Anxiolytic-like effects of pharmacological compounds that increase endocannabinoid levels have been well documented. However, these effects are more evident in animals with high anxiety levels. Several studies have described characteristic inverted U-shaped dose-response effects of drugs that modulate the endocannabinoid levels. However, there are no studies showing the effects of different doses of exogenous anandamide, an endocannabinoid, in animal models of anxiety. Thus, in the present study, we determined the dose-response effects of exogenous anandamide at doses of 0.01, 0.1, and 1.0 mg/kg in C57BL/6 mice (N = 10/group) sequentially submitted to the open field and elevated plus-maze. Anandamide was diluted in 0.9% saline, ethyl alcohol, Emulphor® (18:1:1) and administered ip (0.1 mL/10 g body weight); control animals received the same volume of anandamide vehicle. Anandamide at the dose of 0.1 mg/kg (but not of 0.01 or 1 mg/kg) increased (P < 0.05) the time spent and the distance covered in the central zone of the open field, as well as the exploration of the open arms of the elevated plus-maze. Thus, exogenous anandamide, like pharmacological compounds that increase endocannabinoid levels, promoted a characteristic inverted U-shaped dose-response effect in animal models of anxiety. Furthermore, anandamide (0.1 mg/kg) induced an anxiolytic-like effect in the elevated plus-maze (P < 0.05) after exposing the animals to the open field test.

How auditory temporal processing deficits relate to dyslexia

Studies have shown that dyslexic children present a deficiency in the temporal processing of auditory stimuli applied in rapid succession. However, discussion continues concerning the way this deficiency can be influenced by temporal variables of auditory processing tests. Therefore, the purpose of the present study was to analyze by auditory temporal processing tests the effect of temporal variables such as interstimulus intervals, stimulus duration and type of task on dyslexic children compared to a control group. Of the 60 children evaluated, 33 were dyslexic (mean age = 10.5 years) and 27 were normal controls (mean age = 10.8 years). Auditory processing tests assess the abilities of discrimination and ordering of stimuli in relation to their duration and frequency. Results showed a significant difference in the average accuracy of control and dyslexic groups considering each variable (interstimulus intervals: 47.9 ± 5.5 vs 37.18 ± 6.0; stimulus duration: 61.4 ± 7.6 vs 50.9 ± 9.0; type of task: 59.9 ± 7.9 vs 46.5 ± 9.0) and the dyslexic group demonstrated significantly lower performance in all situations. Moreover, there was an interactive effect between the group and the duration of stimulus variables for the frequency-pattern tests, with the dyslexic group demonstrating significantly lower results for short durations (53.4 ± 8.2 vs 48.4 ± 11.1), as opposed to no difference in performance for the control group (62.2 ± 7.1 vs 60.6 ± 7.9). These results support the hypothesis that associates dyslexia with auditory temporal processing, identifying the stimulus-duration variable as the only one that unequally influenced the performance of the two groups.