STATISTICAL METHODS FOR ADVANCED ECONOMETRIC MODELS WITH APPLICATIONS TO VEHICLE HOLDING AND SPEED QUANTILES DISTRIBUTION

This dissertation proposes statistical methods to formulate, estimate and apply complex transportation models. Two main problems are part of the analyses conducted and presented in this dissertation. The first method solves an econometric problem and is concerned with the joint estimation of models that contain both discrete and continuous decision variables. The use of ordered models along with a regression is proposed and their effectiveness is evaluated with respect to unordered models. Procedure to calculate and optimize the log-likelihood functions of both discrete-continuous approaches are derived, and difficulties associated with the estimation of unordered models explained. Numerical approximation methods based on the Genz algortithm are implemented in order to solve the multidimensional integral associated with the unordered modeling structure. The problems deriving from the lack of smoothness of the probit model around the maximum of the log-likelihood function, which makes the optimization and the calculation of standard deviations very difficult, are carefully analyzed. A methodology to perform out-of-sample validation in the context of a joint model is proposed. Comprehensive numerical experiments have been conducted on both simulated and real data. In particular, the discrete-continuous models are estimated and applied to vehicle ownership and use models on data extracted from the 2009 National Household Travel Survey. The second part of this work offers a comprehensive statistical analysis of free-flow speed distribution; the method is applied to data collected on a sample of roads in Italy. A linear mixed model that includes speed quantiles in its predictors is estimated. Results show that there is no road effect in the analysis of free-flow speeds, which is particularly important for model transferability. A very general framework to predict random effects with few observations and incomplete access to model covariates is formulated and applied to predict the distribution of free-flow speed quantiles. The speed distribution of most road sections is successfully predicted; jack-knife estimates are calculated and used to explain why some sections are poorly predicted. Eventually, this work contributes to the literature in transportation modeling by proposing econometric model formulations for discrete-continuous variables, more efficient methods for the calculation of multivariate normal probabilities, and random effects models for free-flow speed estimation that takes into account the survey design. All methods are rigorously validated on both real and simulated data.

Inertial dissipation method applied to derive turbulent fluxed over the ocean during the Surface of the Ocean, Fluxes and Interactions with the Atmosphere Atlantic Stratocumulus Transition Experiment (SOFIA/ASTEX) and Structure des Echanges Mer-Atmosphere, Proprietes des Heterogeneites Oceaniques: Recherche Experimentale (SEMAPHORE) experiments with low to moderate wind speed

The transfer coefficients for momentum and heat have been determined for 10 m neutral wind speeds (U-10n) between 0 and 12 m/s using data from the Surface of the Ocean, Fluxes and Interactions with the Atmosphere (SOFIA) and Structure des Echanges Mer-Atmosphere, Proprietes des Heterogeneites Oceaniques: Recherche Experimentale (SEMAPHORE) experiments. The inertial dissipation method was applied to wind and pseudo virtual temperature spectra from a sonic anemometer, mounted on a platform (ship) which was moving through the turbulence held. Under unstable conditions the assumptions concerning the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) budget appeared incorrect. Using a bulk estimate for the stability parameter, Z/L (where Z is the height and L is the Obukhov length), this resulted in anomalously low drag coefficients compared to neutral conditions. Determining Z/L iteratively, a low rate of convergence was achieved. It was concluded that the divergence of the turbulent transport of TKE was not negligible under unstable conditions. By minimizing the dependence of the calculated neutral drag coefficient on stability, this term was estimated at about -0.65Z/L. The resulting turbulent fluxes were then in close agreement with other studies at moderate wind speed. The drag and exchange coefficients for low wind speeds were found to be C-en x 10(3) = 2.79U(10n)(-1) + 0.66 (U-10n < 5.2 m/s), C-en x 10(3) = C-hn x 10(3) = 1.2 (U-10n greater than or equal to 5.2 m/s), and C-dn x 10(3) = 11.7U(10n)(-2) + 0.668 (U-10n < 5.5 m/s), which imply a rapid increase of the coefficient values as the wind decreased within the smooth flow regime. The frozen turbulence hypothesis and the assumptions of isotropy and an inertial subrange were found to remain valid at these low wind speeds for these shipboard measurements. Incorporation of a free convection parameterization had little effect.

Effect of ray and speed perturbations on ionospheric tomography by over-the-horizon radar: A new method

International audience

Head repositioning accuracy in patients with neck pain and asymptomatic subjects: concurrent validity, influence of motion speed, motion direction and target distance

Background: Cervicocephalic kinesthetic deficiencies have been demonstrated in patients with chronic neck pain (NP). On the other hand, authors emphasized the use of different motion speeds for assessing functional impairment of the cervical spine. Purpose: The objectives of this study were (1) to investigate the head repositioning accuracy in NP patients and control subjects and (2) to assess the influence of target distance, motion speed, motion direction and pain. Materials and methods: Seventy-one subjects (36 healthy subjects and 35 NP patients; age 30–55 years) performed the head repositioning test (HRT) at two different speeds for horizontal and vertical movements and at two different distances. For each condition, six consecutive trials were sampled. Results: The study showed the validity and reproducibility of the HRT, confirming a dysfunctional threshold of 4.5°. Normative values of head repositioning error up to 3.6° and 7.1° were identified for healthy and NP subjects, respectively. A distance of 180 cm from the target and a natural motion speed increased HRT accuracy. Repositioning after extension movement showed a significantly larger error in both groups. Intensity, duration of pain as well as pain level did not significantly alter head repositioning error. Conclusions: The assessment of proprioceptive performance in healthy and NP subjects allowed the validation of the HRT. The HRT is a simple, not expensive and fast test, easily implementable in daily practice to assess and monitor treatment and evolution of proprioceptive cervical deficits.

Train scheduling in high speed railways: considering competitive effects

The railway planning problem is usually studied from two different points of view: macroscopic and microscopic. We propose a macroscopic approach for the high-speed rail scheduling problem where competitive effects are introduced. We study train frequency planning, timetable planning and rolling stock assignment problems and model the problem as a multi-commodity network flow problem considering competitive transport markets. The aim of the presented model is to maximize the total operator profit. We solve the optimization model using realistic probleminstances obtained from the network of the Spanish railwa operator RENFE, including other transport modes in Spain

Train scheduling and rolling stock assignment in high speed trains

The Train Timetabling Problem (TTP) has been widely studied for freight and passenger rail systems. A lesser effort has been devoted to the study of high-speed rail systems. A modeling issue that has to be addressed is to model departure time choice of passengers on railway services. Passengers who use these systems attempt to travel at predetermined hours due to their daily life necessities (e.g., commuter trips). We incorporate all these features into TTP focusing on high-speed railway systems. We propose a Rail Scheduling and Rolling Stock (RSch-RS) model for timetable planning of high-speed railway systems. This model is composed of two essential elements: i) an infrastructure model for representing the railway network: it includes capacity constraints of the rail network and the Rolling-Stock constraints; and ii) a demand model that defines how the passengers choose the departure time. The resulting model is a mixed-integer programming model which objective function attempts to maximize the profit for the rail operator

Effects of Drive Speed Modulation on Dynamics of Slender Rotating Structures

Slender rotating structures are used in many mechanical systems. These structures can suffer from undesired vibrations that can affect the components and safety of a system. Furthermore, since some these structures can operate in a harsh environment, installation and operation of sensors that are needed for closed-loop and collocated control schemes may not be feasible. Hence, the need for an open-loop non-collocated scheme for control of the dynamics of these structures. In this work, the effects of drive speed modulation on the dynamics of slender rotating structures are studied. Slender rotating structures are a type of mechanical rotating structures, whose length to diameter ratio is large. For these structures, the torsion mode natural frequencies can be low. In particular, for isotropic structures, the first few torsion mode frequencies can be of the same order as the first few bending mode frequencies. These situations can be conducive for energy transfer amongst bending and torsion modes. Scenarios with torsional vibrations experienced by rotating structures with continuous rotor-stator contact occur in many rotating mechanical systems. Drill strings used in the oil and gas industry are an example of rotating structures whose torsional vibrations can be deleterious to the components of the drilling system. As a novel approach to mitigate undesired vibrations, the effects of adding a sinusoidal excitation to the rotation speed of a drill string are studied. A portion of the drill string located within a borewell is considered and this rotating structure has been modeled as an extended Jeffcott rotor and a sinusoidal excitation has been added to the drive speed of the rotor. After constructing a three-degree-of-freedom model to capture lateral and torsional motions, the equations of motions are reduced to a single differential equation governing torsional vibrations during continuous stator contact. An approximate solution has been obtained by making use of the Method of Direct Partition of Motions with the governing torsional equation of motion. The results showed that for a rotor undergoing forward or backward whirling, the addition of sinusoidal excitation to the drive speed can cause an increase in the equivalent torsional stiffness, smooth the discontinuous friction force at contact, and reduce the regions of negative slope in the friction coefficient variation with respect to speed. Experiments with a scaled drill string apparatus have also been conducted and the experimental results show good agreement with the numerical results obtained from the developed models. These findings suggest that the extended Jeffcott rotordynamics model can be useful for studies of rotor dynamics in situations with continuous rotor-stator contact. Furthermore, the results obtained suggest that the drive speed modulation scheme can have value for attenuating drill-string vibrations.

Holistic Design In High-Speed Optical Interconnects

Integrated circuit scaling has enabled a huge growth in processing capability, which necessitates a corresponding increase in inter-chip communication bandwidth. As bandwidth requirements for chip-to-chip interconnection scale, deficiencies of electrical channels become more apparent. Optical links present a viable alternative due to their low frequency-dependent loss and higher bandwidth density in the form of wavelength division multiplexing. As integrated photonics and bonding technologies are maturing, commercialization of hybrid-integrated optical links are becoming a reality. Increasing silicon integration leads to better performance in optical links but necessitates a corresponding co-design strategy in both electronics and photonics. In this light, holistic design of high-speed optical links with an in-depth understanding of photonics and state-of-the-art electronics brings their performance to unprecedented levels. This thesis presents developments in high-speed optical links by co-designing and co-integrating the primary elements of an optical link: receiver, transmitter, and clocking.

In the first part of this thesis a 3D-integrated CMOS/Silicon-photonic receiver will be presented. The electronic chip features a novel design that employs a low-bandwidth TIA front-end, double-sampling and equalization through dynamic offset modulation. Measured results show -14.9dBm of sensitivity and energy efficiency of 170fJ/b at 25Gb/s. The same receiver front-end is also used to implement source-synchronous 4-channel WDM-based parallel optical receiver. Quadrature ILO-based clocking is employed for synchronization and a novel frequency-tracking method that exploits the dynamics of IL in a quadrature ring oscillator to increase the effective locking range. An adaptive body-biasing circuit is designed to maintain the per-bit-energy consumption constant across wide data-rates. The prototype measurements indicate a record-low power consumption of 153fJ/b at 32Gb/s. The receiver sensitivity is measured to be -8.8dBm at 32Gb/s.

Next, on the optical transmitter side, three new techniques will be presented. First one is a differential ring modulator that breaks the optical bandwidth/quality factor trade-off known to limit the speed of high-Q ring modulators. This structure maintains a constant energy in the ring to avoid pattern-dependent power droop. As a first proof of concept, a prototype has been fabricated and measured up to 10Gb/s. The second technique is thermal stabilization of micro-ring resonator modulators through direct measurement of temperature using a monolithic PTAT temperature sensor. The measured temperature is used in a feedback loop to adjust the thermal tuner of the ring. A prototype is fabricated and a closed-loop feedback system is demonstrated to operate at 20Gb/s in the presence of temperature fluctuations. The third technique is a switched-capacitor based pre-emphasis technique designed to extend the inherently low bandwidth of carrier injection micro-ring modulators. A measured prototype of the optical transmitter achieves energy efficiency of 342fJ/bit at 10Gb/s and the wavelength stabilization circuit based on the monolithic PTAT sensor consumes 0.29mW.

Lastly, a first-order frequency synthesizer that is suitable for high-speed on-chip clock generation will be discussed. The proposed design features an architecture combining an LC quadrature VCO, two sample-and-holds, a PI, digital coarse-tuning, and rotational frequency detection for fine-tuning. In addition to an electrical reference clock, as an extra feature, the prototype chip is capable of receiving a low jitter optical reference clock generated by a high-repetition-rate mode-locked laser. The output clock at 8GHz has an integrated RMS jitter of 490fs, peak-to-peak periodic jitter of 2.06ps, and total RMS jitter of 680fs. The reference spurs are measured to be –64.3dB below the carrier frequency. At 8GHz the system consumes 2.49mW from a 1V supply.

The neuroscience of cognitive enhancement : enhanced attention, working memory and visual information processing speed using 3D-MOT

Des interventions ciblant l’amélioration cognitive sont de plus en plus à l’intérêt dans nombreux domaines, y compris la neuropsychologie. Bien qu'il existe de nombreuses méthodes pour maximiser le potentiel cognitif de quelqu’un, ils sont rarement appuyé par la recherche scientifique. D’abord, ce mémoire examine brièvement l'état des interventions d'amélioration cognitives. Il décrit premièrement les faiblesses observées dans ces pratiques et par conséquent il établit un modèle standard contre lequel on pourrait et devrait évaluer les diverses techniques ciblant l'amélioration cognitive. Une étude de recherche est ensuite présenté qui considère un nouvel outil de l'amélioration cognitive, une tâche d’entrainement perceptivo-cognitive : 3-dimensional multiple object tracking (3D-MOT). Il examine les preuves actuelles pour le 3D-MOT auprès du modèle standard proposé. Les résultats de ce projet démontrent de l’augmentation dans les capacités d’attention, de mémoire de travail visuel et de vitesse de traitement d’information. Cette étude représente la première étape dans la démarche vers l’établissement du 3D-MOT comme un outil d’amélioration cognitive.

The neuroscience of cognitive enhancement : enhanced attention, working memory and visual information processing speed using 3D-MOT

Des interventions ciblant l’amélioration cognitive sont de plus en plus à l’intérêt dans nombreux domaines, y compris la neuropsychologie. Bien qu'il existe de nombreuses méthodes pour maximiser le potentiel cognitif de quelqu’un, ils sont rarement appuyé par la recherche scientifique. D’abord, ce mémoire examine brièvement l'état des interventions d'amélioration cognitives. Il décrit premièrement les faiblesses observées dans ces pratiques et par conséquent il établit un modèle standard contre lequel on pourrait et devrait évaluer les diverses techniques ciblant l'amélioration cognitive. Une étude de recherche est ensuite présenté qui considère un nouvel outil de l'amélioration cognitive, une tâche d’entrainement perceptivo-cognitive : 3-dimensional multiple object tracking (3D-MOT). Il examine les preuves actuelles pour le 3D-MOT auprès du modèle standard proposé. Les résultats de ce projet démontrent de l’augmentation dans les capacités d’attention, de mémoire de travail visuel et de vitesse de traitement d’information. Cette étude représente la première étape dans la démarche vers l’établissement du 3D-MOT comme un outil d’amélioration cognitive.

Critical swimming speed of the southern straight-mouth nase Pseudochondrostoma willkommii (Steindachner, 1866), a potamodromous cyprinid from southern Europe.

Critical swimming speed (Ucrit) of the potamodromous southern straight-mouth nase was assessed in a modified Blazka-type swim tunnel. Forty-one P. willkommii were tested and exhibited a mean± SD Ucrit of 0.54 ± 0.07 m/s. The sex of experimental fish had no effect on Ucrit but a significant positive relationship was found between swimming performance and the body condition of tested fish. Results from this study can be used to improve the current design of fish passes targeting this, or similar, potamodromous fish species.

Comparison of sequence variants in the PDK4 and COX4I2 genes between racing and cutting lines of quarter horses and associations with the speed index.

Different selection objectives within the Quarter Horse breed led to the formation of groups with distinct skills, including the racing and cutting lines. With a smaller population size in Brazil, but of great economic representativeness, the racing line is characterized by animals that can reach high speeds over short distances and within a short period of time. The cutting line is destined for functional tests, exploring skills such as agility and obedience. Although the athletic performance of horses is likely to be influenced by a large number of genes, few genetic variants have so far been related to this trait and this was done exclusively in Thoroughbreds, including the g.38973231G>A singlenucleotide polymorphism in the PDK4 gene and the g.22684390C>T single-nucleotide polymorphism in the COX4I2 gene. The results of the present study demonstrate the presence of polymorphic PDK4 and COX4I2 genes in Quarter Horses. The analysis of 296 racing animals and 68 cutting animals revealed significant differences in allele and genotype frequencies between the two lines. The same was not observed when these frequencies were compared between extreme racing performance phenotypes. There were also no significant associations between alleles of the two polymorphisms and the speed index. These results suggest that the alleles of the PDK4 and COX4I2 genes, which are related to better racecourse performance in Thoroughbreds, are probably associated with beneficial adaptations in aerobic metabolism and therefore play secondary roles in sprint racing performance in Quarter Horses, which is mainly anaerobic.

Speed, legislatures and international treaties: Evidence from Mercosur

What causes faster or slower procedures in the parliaments when considering international treaties? This question motivates the current research, which aims to understand how the nature of coalitions influence the duration of the legislative processes. For this, the analysis covers all the treaties signed by Mercosur between 1991 and 2021 and the internalisation processes in four member states (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay). It observes how long each parliament took to approve the treaties and which was the effect of political and economic variables. A mixed-methods approach was adopted for the empirical research, combining Survival Analysis, Qualitative Comparative Analysis and Process Tracing. While the quantitative work investigates all the cases, the qualitative study illuminates the enlargement of Mercosur, with in-depth analysis of the Paraguayan approval of the Venezuelan and Bolivian accessions. This study provides important insights into the role of national legislatures in the Latin American regionalism, concluding that the government-opposition cleavage drives the parliamentarians’ behaviour on the topic of regional integration. The study also contributes to the field Mercosur studies with the characterisation of the treaties ratified domestically, by undertaking a longitudinal analysis at the 30th anniversary of the bloc.

A cohomological approach to Ruelle-Pollicott resonances and speed of mixing of Anosov diffeomorphisms

Given a transitive Anosov diffeomorphism on a closed manifold it is known that, for smooth enough observables, the system is mixing w.r.t. the measure of maximal entropy. Therefore, it makes sense to investigate the speed of decay of correlations and to look for the so-called Ruelle-Pollicott resonances, in order to determine a complete asymptotics for the decay of correlations. In this thesis we are able to find the first terms of that asymptotics and to prove an estimate for the speed of decaying of correlations. The proof is based on a surprising connection between the action of a transfer operator on suitable anisotropic Banach spaces of currents and the action induced by the Anosov map on the de Rham cohomology.

Numerical Analysis and Redesign of a High Speed Linear Cascade Wind Tunnel for Aircraft Gas Turbine Engines Testing

Linear cascade testing serves a fundamental role in the research, development, and design of turbomachines as it is a simple yet very effective way to compute the performance of a generic blade geometry. These kinds of experiments are usually carried out in specialized wind tunnel facilities. This thesis deals with the numerical characterization and subsequent partial redesign of the S-1/C Continuous High Speed Wind Tunnel of the Von Karman Institute for Fluid Dynamics. The current facility is powered by a 13-stage axial compressor that is not powerful enough to balance the energy loss experienced when testing low turning airfoils. In order to address this issue a performance assessment of the wind tunnel was performed under several flow regimes via numerical simulations. After that, a redesign proposal aimed at reducing the pressure loss was investigated. This consists of a linear cascade of turning blades to be placed downstream of the test section and designed specifically for the type of linear cascade being tested. An automatic design procedure was created taking as input parameters those measured at the outlet of the cascade. The parametrization method employed Bézier curves to produce an airfoil geometry that could be imported into a CAD software so that a cascade could be designed. The proposal was simulated via CFD analysis and proved to be effective in reducing pressure losses up to 41%. The same tool developed in this thesis could be adopted to design similar apparatuses and could also be optimized and specialized for the design of turbomachines components.