Spatial-temporal excess mortality patterns of the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic in Spain

Background: The impact of socio-demographic factors and baseline health on the mortality burden of seasonal and pandemic influenza remains debated. Here we analyzed the spatial-temporal mortality patterns of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Spain, one of the countries of Europe that experienced the highest mortality burden. Methods: We analyzed monthly death rates from respiratory diseases and all-causes across 49 provinces of Spain, including the Canary and Balearic Islands, during the period January-1915 to June-1919. We estimated the influenza-related excess death rates and risk of death relative to baseline mortality by pandemic wave and province. We then explored the association between pandemic excess mortality rates and health and socio-demographic factors, which included population size and age structure, population density, infant mortality rates, baseline death rates, and urbanization. Results: Our analysis revealed high geographic heterogeneity in pandemic mortality impact. We identified 3 pandemic waves of varying timing and intensity covering the period from Jan-1918 to Jun-1919, with the highest pandemic-related excess mortality rates occurring during the months of October-November 1918 across all Spanish provinces. Cumulative excess mortality rates followed a south-north gradient after controlling for demographic factors, with the North experiencing highest excess mortality rates. A model that included latitude, population density, and the proportion of children living in provinces explained about 40% of the geographic variability in cumulative excess death rates during 1918-19, but different factors explained mortality variation in each wave. Conclusions: A substantial fraction of the variability in excess mortality rates across Spanish provinces remained unexplained, which suggests that other unidentified factors such as comorbidities, climate and background immunity may have affected the 1918-19 pandemic mortality rates. Further archeo-epidemiological research should concentrate on identifying settings with combined availability of local historical mortality records and information on the prevalence of underlying risk factors, or patient-level clinical data, to further clarify the drivers of 1918 pandemic influenza mortality.

Spatial and temporal distribution of grouper larvae (Serranidae: Epinephelinae: Epinephelini) in the Gulf of Mexico and Straits of Florida

Little is known about the seasonality and distribution of grouper larvae (Serranidae: Epinephelini) in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean off the coast of the southeast United States. Grouper larvae were collected from a transect across the Straits of Florida in 2003 and 2004 and during the Southeast Area Monitoring and Assessment Program spring and fall surveys from 1982 through 2005. Analysis of these larval data provided information on location and timing of spawning, larval distribution patterns, and interannual occurrence for a group of species not easily studied as adults. Our analyses indicated that shelf-edge habitat is important for spawning of many species of grouper—some species for which data were not previously available. Spawning for some species may occur year-round, but two peak seasons are evident: late winter and late summer through early fall. Interannual variability in the use of three important subregions by species or groups of species was partially explained by environmental factors (surface temperature, surface salinity, and water depth). A shift in species dominance over the last three decades from spring-spawned species (most of the commercial species) to fall-spawned species also was documented. The results of these analyses expand our understanding of the basic distribution and spawning patterns of northwest Atlantic grouper species and indicate a need for further examination of the changing population structure of individual species and species dominance in the region.

Spatial and temporal distribution of North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis) in Cape Cod Bay, and implications for management

Cape Cod Bay (Massachusetts) is the only known winter and early spring feeding area for concentrations of the endangered North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis) population. During January–May, 1998–2002, 167 aerial surveys were conducted (66,466 km of total survey effort), providing a complete representation of the spatiotemporal distribution of right whales in the bay during winter and spring. A total of 1553 right whales were sighted; some of these sightings were multiple sightings of the same individuals. Right whale distribution and relative abundance patterns were quantified as sightings per unit of effort (SPUE) and partitioned into 103 23-km2 cells and 12 2-week periods. Significant interannual variations in mean SPUE and timing of SPUE maxima were likely due to physically forced changes in available food resources. The area of greatest SPUE expanded and contracted during the season but its center remained in the eastern bay. Most cells with SPUE>0 were inside the federal critical habitat (CH) and this finding gave evidence of the need for management measures within CH boundaries to reduce anthropogenic mortality from vessel strikes and entanglement. There was significant within-season SPUE variability: low in December−January, increasing to a maximum in late February−early April, and declining to zero in May; and these results provide support for management measures from 1 January

Genetic variability in spotted seatrout (Cynoscion nebulosus), determined with microsatellite DNA markers

Variation in the allele frequencies of five microsatellite loci was surveyed in 1256 individual spotted seatrout (Cynoscion nebulosus) obtained from 12 bays and estuaries from Laguna Madre, Texas, to Charlotte Harbor, Florida, to St. John’s River on the Florida Atlantic Coast. Texas and Louisiana collection sites were resampled each year for two to four years (1998−2001). Genetic differentiation was observed. Spotted seatrout from Florida waters were strongly differentiated from spotted seatrout collected in Louisiana and Texas. The greatest genetic discontinuity was observed between Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor, and Charlotte Harbor seatrout were most similar to Atlantic Coast spotted seatrout. Texas and Louisiana samples were not strongly structured within the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and there was little evidence of temporal differentiation within bays. These findings are contrary to those of earlier analyses with allozymes and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) where evidence of spatial differentiation was found for spotted seatrout resident on the Texas coast. The differences in genetic structure observed among these markers may reflect differences in response to selective pressure, or may be due to differences in underlying genetic processes.

Spatial coherence and persistence in annual streamflow in the western United States [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Four broad regions of the western United States within which annual streamflows exhibit strong spatial coherence are identified using principal component analysis with a varimax rotation. Geographically, the four regions encompass the Pacific Northwest, Far West-Great Basin, Central Rockies-High Plains, and Northern Great Plains. These regions are really consistent with previously documented, descriptively derived streamflow regimes as well as with general atmospheric circulation and precipitation modes of variation. Collectively, the four regional components account for nearly 63 percent of the total annual variation in western U.S. streamflow. The time history of most principal component patterns exhibit little or no persistence.

Spatial and temporal patterns of coral bleaching around Buck Island Reef National Monument, St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands

Since 2001, biannual fish and habitat monitoring has been conducted for the shallow (> 30 m), colonized pavement and gorgonian dominated Buck Island Reef National Monument (BIRNM) St. Croix, USVI and adjacent waters. during October, 2005, widespread coral bleaching was observed within the ∼50 square-kilometer study area that was preceded by 10 wks of higher than average water temperatures (28.9–30.1 °C). Random transects (100 square meters) were conducted on linear reefs, patch reefs, bedrock, pavement, and scattered coral/rock habitats during October 2005, and April and October 2006, and species specific bleaching patterns were documented. During October 2005 approximately 51% of live coral cover was bleached. Nineteen of 23 coral species within 16 genera and two hydrocoral species exhibited signs of bleaching. Coral cover for Montastraea annularis and species of the genus Agaricia were the most affected, while other species exhibited variability in their susceptibility to bleaching. Bleaching was evident at all depths (1.5–28 m), was negatively correlated with depth, and positively correlated with habitat complexity. Bleaching was less prevalent at all depths and habitat types upon subsequent monitoring during April (15%) and October (3%) 2006. Four species and one genus did not exhibit signs of bleaching throughout the study period (Dendrogyra cylindrus, Eusmilia fastigata, Mussa angulosa, Mycetophyllia aliciae, Scolymia spp.).

Spatial and temporal patterns of coral bleaching around Buck Island Reef National Monument, St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands [poster]

Limited information currently exists on the recovery periods of bleached corals as well as the spatial extent, causative factors, and the overall impact of bleaching on coral reef ecosystems. During October, 2005, widespread coral bleaching was observed within Buck Island Reef National Monument (BUIS) St. Croix, USVI. The bleaching event was preceded by 10 weeks of higher than average water temperatures (28.9-30.1°C). Random transects (100 square meters) over hard bottom habitats (N=94) revealed that approximately 51% of live coral cover was bleached. Nineteen of 23 coral species within 16 genera and two hydrocoral species exhibited signs of bleaching; species-specific bleaching patterns were variable throughout the study area. Coral cover for Montastraea annularisand species of the genus Agariciawere the most affected, while other species exhibited variability to bleaching. Although a weak but significant negative relationship (r2=0.10, P=0.0220) was observed, bleaching was evident at all depths (1.5-28 m). Bleaching was spatially autocorrelated (P=0.001) and hot-spot analysis identified a cluster of high bleaching stations northeast of Buck Island. Bleaching was significantly reduced within all depth zones and habitat types upon subsequent monitoring during April (15%) and October (3%) 2006.

Spatial and temporal variation in the diet of the California sea lion (Zalophus californianus) in the Gulf of California, Mexico

Between June 1995 and May 1996 seven rookeries in the Gulf of California were visited four times in order to collect scat samples for studying spatial and seasonal variability California sea lion prey. The rookeries studied were San Pedro Mártir, San Esteban, El Rasito, Los Machos, Los Cantiles, Isla Granito, and Isla Lobos. The 1273 scat samples collected yielded 4995 otoliths (95.3%) and 247 (4.7%) cephalopod beaks. Fish were found in 97.4% of scat samples collected, cephalopods in 11.2%, and crustaceans in 12.7%. We identified 92 prey taxa to the species level, 11 to genus level, and 10 to family level, of which the most important were Pacific cutlassfish (Trichiurus lepturus), Pacific sardine (Sardinops caeruleus), plainfin midshipman (Porichthys spp.), myctophid no. 1, northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax), Pacific mackerel (Scomber japonicus), anchoveta (Cetengraulis mysticetus), and jack mackerel (Trachurus symmetricus). Significant differences were found among rookeries in the occurrence of all main prey (P≤0.04), except for myctophid no. 1 (P>0.05). Temporally, significant differences were found in the occurrence of Pacific cutlassfish, Pacific sardine, plainfin midshipman, northern anchovy, and Pacific mackerel (P<0.05), but not in jack mackerel (χ 2=2.94, df=3, P=0.40), myctophid no. 1 (χ 2=1.67, df= 3, P=0.64), or lanternfishes (χ 2=2.08, df=3, P=0.56). Differences were observed in the diet and in trophic diversity among seasons and rookeries. More evident was the variation in diet in relation to availability of Pacific sardine.

Interannual variability in the PFEG coastal upwelling indices

Numerous studies examine decadal-scale variability in basin-scale parameters in the Northern Pacific. Characterizing such interannual-to-interdecadal variability is essential to identifying long-term climate changes. The Pacific Fisheries Environmental Group (PFEG) coastal upwelling indices display variability on these time scales and may help explain the mechanisms responsible for such climate variability. ... In this study, examination of 49-year time series of monthly mean upwelling indices at the 15 PFEG-standard positions along the west coast of North America revealed variability on large spatial scales as well as temporal scales.

Temporal and spatial variations in kinetics of alkaline phosphatase in sediments of a shallow Chinese eutrophic lake (Lake Donghu)

Monthly sediment and interstitial water samples were collected in a shallow Chinese freshwater lake (Lake Donghu) from three areas to determine if alkaline phosphatase activity (APA) plays an important role in phosphorus cycling in sediment. The seasonal variability in the kinetics of APA and other relevant parameters were investigated from 1995-1996. The phosphatase hydrolyzable phosphorus (PHP) fluctuated seasonally in interstitial water, peaking in the spring. A synchronous pattern was observed in chlorophyll a contents in surface water in general. The orthophosphate (o-P) concentrations in the interstitial water increased during the spring. An expected negative relationship between PHP and V-max of APA is not evident in interstitial water. The most striking feature of the two variables is their co-occurring, which can be explained in terms of an induction mechanism. It is argued that phosphatase activity mainly contributes to the driving force of o-P regeneration from PHP in interstitial water, supporting the development of phytoplankton biomass in spring. The V-max values in sediment increased during the summer, in Conjunction with lower K-m values in interstitial water that suggest a higher affinity for the substrate. The accumulation of organic matter in the sediment could be traced back to the breakdown of the algal spring bloom, which may stimulate APA with higher kinetic efficiency, by a combination of the higher V-max in sediments plus lower K-m values in interstitial water, in Summer. In summary, a focus On phosphatase and its substrate in annual scale may provide a useful framework for the development of novel P cycling, possible explanations for the absence of a clear relationship between PHP and APA were PHP released from the sediment which induced APA, and the presence of kinetically higher APA both in sediment and interstitial water which permitted summer mineralization of organic matter derived from the spring bloom to occur. The study highlighted the need for distinguishing functionally distinct extracellular enzymes between the sediment and interstitial water of lakes. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

IMPACTS OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC COUPLED PROCESS ON THE INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY IN THE INDIAN OCEAN

The basic features of climatology and interannual variations of tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans were analyzed using a coupled general circulation model (CGCM), which was constituted with an intermediate 2.5-layer ocean model and atmosphere model ECHAM4. The CGCM well captures the spatial and temporal structure of the Pacific El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the variability features in the tropical Indian Ocean. The influence of Pacific air-sea coupled process on the Indian Ocean variability was investigated carefully by conducting numerical experiments. Results show that the occurrence frequency of positive/negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event will decrease/increase with the presence/absence of the coupled process in the Pacific Ocean. Further analysis demonstrated that the air-sea coupled process in the Pacific Ocean affects the IOD variability mainly by influencing the zonal gradient of thermocline via modulating the background sea surface wind.

Variability of surface circulation in the South China Sea from satellite altimeter data

11-year satellite altimeter sea surface height (SSH) anomaly data from January 1993 to December 2003 are used to present the dominant spatial patterns and temporal variations of the South China Sea (SCS) surface circulation through Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis. The first three EOF modes show the obvious seasonal variations of SSH in the SCS. EOF mode one is generally characterized by a basin-wide circulation. Mode two describes the double-cell basin scale circulation structure. The two cells were located off west of the Luzon Island and southeast of Vietnam, respectively. EOF mode three presents the mesoscale eddy structure in the western SCS, which develops into a strong cyclonic eddy rapidly from July to September. EOF mode one and mode three are also embedded with interannual signals, indicating that the SCS surface circulation variation is influenced by El Nino events prominently. The strong El Nino of 1997/98 obviously changed the SCS circulation structure. This study also shows that there existed a series of mesoscale eddies in the western SCS, and their temporal variation indicates intra-seasonal and interannual signals.

Phytoplankton biomass size structure and its regulation in the Southern Yellow Sea (China): Seasonal variability

Phytoplankton size structure plays a significant role in controlling the carbon flux of marine pelagic ecosystems. The mesoscale distribution and seasonal variation of total and size-fractionated phytoplankton biomass in surface waters. as measured by chlorophyll a (Chl a), was studied in the Southern Yellow Sea using data from four cruises during 2006-2007. The distribution of Chl a showed a high degree of spatial and temporal variation in the study area. Chl a concentrations were relatively high in the summer and autumn, with a mean of 142 and 1.27 mg m(-3), respectively. Conversely, in the winter and spring. the average Chl a levels were only 098 and 0.99 mg m(-3) Total Chl a showed a clear decreasing gradient from coastal areas to the open sea in the summer, autumn and winter cruises. Patches of high Chl a were observed in the central part of the Southern Yellow Sea in the spring due to the onset of the phytoplankton bloom. The eutrophic coastal waters contributed at least 68% of the total phytoplankton biomass in the surface layer. Picophytoplankton showed a consistent and absolute dominance in the central region of the Southern Yellow Sea (>40%) in all of the cruises, while the proportion of microphytoplankton was the highest in coastal waters The relative proportions of pico- and nanophytoplankton decreased with total biomass, whereas the proportion of the micro-fraction increased with total biomass. Relationships between phytoplankton biomass and environmental factors were also analysed. The results showed that the onset of the spring bloom was highly dependent on water column stability. Phytoplankton growth was limited by nutrient availability in the summer due to the strong thermocline. The combined effects of P-limitation and vertical mixing in the autumn restrained the further increase of phytoplankton biomass in the Surface layer. The low phytoplankton biomass in winter was caused by vertical dispersion due to intense mixing. Compared with the availability of nutrients. temperature did not seem to cause direct effects on phytoplankton biomass and its size structure. Although interactions of many different environmental factors affected phytoplankton distributions. hydrodynamic conditions seemed to be the dominant factor. Phytoplankton size structure was determined mainly by the size-differential capacity in acquiring resource. Short time scale events, such as the spring bloom and the extension of Yangtze River plume, can have substantial influences, both on the total Chl a concentration and on the size structure of the phytoplankton. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial and temporal variations in pH and total alkalinity at the beginning of the rainy season in the Changjiang Estuary, China

The results of field observation carried out in May 2003 were used to examine pH and total alkalinity behaviors in the Changjiang Estuary. It was showed that PH and total alkalinity took on clear spatial variations in values with the minima in the low salinity region. Like salinity, transect distributions of PH and total alkalinity (TA) in a downriver direction had a sharp gradient each. These gradients appeared in such a sequence that the TA gradient was earlier than salinity and PH gradients, and the salinity gradient was earlier than the PH gradient. These distribution characteristics seemed to be strongly influenced by the mixing process of freshwater and seawater, for both PH and total alkalinity had significant linear relationships with salinity and temperature. For PH, phytoplankton activities also had a significant impact upon its spatial distribution. During a period of 48 h, PH and total alkalinity changed within wide ranges for every layer of the two anchor stations, namely, Stas 13 and 20, which were located at the mixed water mass and seawater mass, respectively. For both Stas 13 and 20, PH and TA fluctuation of every layer could be very wide during a 4 h period. As a whole, the data of the two anchor stations showed that neither variations in salinity and temperature nor phytoplankton activities were the main factors strongly influencing the total alkalinity temporal variability on a small time scale. The data of Sta. 20 implied that both salinity variation and phytoplankton activities had a significant influence on PH temporal variability, but the same conclusion could not be drawn from the data of Sta. 13.

Assessing variability and long-term trends in burned area by merging multiple satellite fire products

Long term, high quality estimates of burned area are needed for improving both prognostic and diagnostic fire emissions models and for assessing feedbacks between fire and the climate system. We developed global, monthly burned area estimates aggregated to 0.5° spatial resolution for the time period July 1996 through mid-2009 using four satellite data sets. From 2001ĝ€ "2009, our primary data source was 500-m burned area maps produced using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) surface reflectance imagery; more than 90% of the global area burned during this time period was mapped in this fashion. During times when the 500-m MODIS data were not available, we used a combination of local regression and regional regression trees developed over periods when burned area and Terra MODIS active fire data were available to indirectly estimate burned area. Cross-calibration with fire observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Visible and Infrared Scanner (VIRS) and the Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) allowed the data set to be extended prior to the MODIS era. With our data set we estimated that the global annual area burned for the years 1997ĝ€ "2008 varied between 330 and 431 Mha, with the maximum occurring in 1998. We compared our data set to the recent GFED2, L3JRC, GLOBCARBON, and MODIS MCD45A1 global burned area products and found substantial differences in many regions. Lastly, we assessed the interannual variability and long-term trends in global burned area over the past 13 years. This burned area time series serves as the basis for the third version of the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED3) estimates of trace gas and aerosol emissions.