Snow cover models in operational watershed forecasting

Yhteenveto: Lumimallit vesistöjen ennustemalleissa

Constraining uncertainty in regional hydrologic impacts of climate change: Nonstationarity in downscaling

Regional impacts of climate change remain subject to large uncertainties accumulating from various sources, including those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios, and downscaling methods. Objective constraints to reduce the uncertainty in regional predictions have proven elusive. In most studies to date the nature of the downscaling relationship (DSR) used for such regional predictions has been assumed to remain unchanged in a future climate. However,studies have shown that climate change may manifest in terms of changes in frequencies of occurrence of the leading modes of variability, and hence, stationarity of DSRs is not really a valid assumption in regional climate impact assessment. This work presents an uncertainty modeling framework where, in addition to GCM and scenario uncertainty, uncertainty in the nature of the DSR is explored by linking downscaling with changes in frequencies of such modes of natural variability. Future projections of the regional hydrologic variable obtained by training a conditional random field (CRF) model on each natural cluster are combined using the weighted Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory of evidence combination. Each projection is weighted with the future projected frequency of occurrence of that cluster (''cluster linking'') and scaled by the GCM performance with respect to the associated cluster for the present period (''frequency scaling''). The D-S theory was chosen for its ability to express beliefs in some hypotheses, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The methodology is tested for predicting monsoon streamflow of the Mahanadi River at Hirakud Reservoir in Orissa, India. The results show an increasing probability of extreme, severe, and moderate droughts due to limate change. Significantly improved agreement between GCM predictions owing to cluster linking and frequency scaling is seen, suggesting that by linking regional impacts to natural regime frequencies, uncertainty in regional predictions can be realistically quantified. Additionally, by using a measure of GCM performance in simulating natural regimes, this uncertainty can be effectively constrained.

Comparison of ANN models for predicting water quality in distribution systems

Deterministic models have been widely used to predict water quality in distribution systems, but their calibration requires extensive and accurate data sets for numerous parameters. In this study, alternative data-driven modeling approaches based on artificial neural networks (ANNs) were used to predict temporal variations of two important characteristics of water quality chlorine residual and biomass concentrations. The authors considered three types of ANN algorithms. Of these, the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm provided the best results in predicting residual chlorine and biomass with error-free and ``noisy'' data. The ANN models developed here can generate water quality scenarios of piped systems in real time to help utilities determine weak points of low chlorine residual and high biomass concentration and select optimum remedial strategies.

Numerically Exact Study of Polarizabilities and Hyperpolarizabilities of Correlated Conjugated Organic Models

Polarizabilities and Hyperpolarizabilities of conjugated organic chains are calculated using correlated model Hamiltonians. While correlations reduce the Polarizabilities and extend the range of linear response, the Hyperpolarizabilities essentially are unaffected by the same. This explains the apparently large Hyperpolarizabilities of conjugated electronic systems.

Ordering near the percolation threshold in models of two-dimensional interacting bosons with quenched dilution

Randomly diluted quantum boson and spin models in two dimensions combine the physics of classical percolation with the well-known dimensionality dependence of ordering in quantum lattice models. This combination is rather subtle for models that order in two dimensions but have no true order in one dimension, as the percolation cluster near threshold is a fractal of dimension between 1 and 2: two experimentally relevant examples are the O(2) quantum rotor and the Heisenberg antiferromagnet. We study two analytic descriptions of the O(2) quantum rotor near the percolation threshold. First a spin-wave expansion is shown to predict long-ranged order, but there are statistically rare points on the cluster that violate the standard assumptions of spin-wave theory. A real-space renormalization group (RSRG) approach is then used to understand how these rare points modify ordering of the O(2) rotor. A new class of fixed points of the RSRG equations for disordered one-dimensional bosons is identified and shown to support the existence of long-range order on the percolation backbone in two dimensions. These results are relevant to experiments on bosons in optical lattices and superconducting arrays, and also (qualitatively) for the diluted Heisenberg antiferromagnet La-2(Zn,Mg)(x)Cu1-xO4.

World parliament – fact or fiction? On the feasibility of world parliamentary models

Cosmopolitan ideals have been on the philosophical agenda for several millennia but the end of the Cold War started a new discussion on state sovereignty, global democracy, the role of international law and global institutions. The Westphalian state system in practice since the 17th century is transforming and the democracy deficit needs new solutions. An impetus has been the fact that in the present world, an international body representing global citizens does not exist. In this Master’s thesis, the possibility of establishing a world parliament is examined. In a case analysis, 17 models on world parliament from two journals, a volume of essays and two other publications are discussed. Based on general observations, the models are divided into four thematic groups. The models are analyzed with an emphasis on feasible and probable elements. Further, a new scenario with a time frame of thirty years is proposed based on the methodology of normative futures studies, taking special interest in causal relationships and actions leading to change. The scenario presents three gradual steps that each need to be realized before a sustainable world parliament is established. The theoretical framework is based on social constructivism, and changes in international and multi-level governance are examined with the concepts of globalization, democracy and sovereignty. A feasible, desirable and credible world parliament is constituted gradually by implying electoral, democratic and legal measures for members initially from exclusively democratic states, parliamentarians, non-governmental organizations and other groups. The parliament should be located outside the United Nations context, since a new body avoids the problem of inefficiency currently prevailing in the UN. The main objectives of the world parliament are to safeguard peace and international law and to offer legal advice in cases when international law has been violated. A feasible world parliament is advisory in the beginning but it is granted legislative powers in the future. The number of members in the world parliament could also be extended following the example of the EU enlargement process.

Models of Dispersal and Diversification

Ecology and evolutionary biology is the study of life on this planet. One of the many methods applied to answering the great diversity of questions regarding the lives and characteristics of individual organisms, is the utilization of mathematical models. Such models are used in a wide variety of ways. Some help us to reason, functioning as aids to, or substitutes for, our own fallible logic, thus making argumentation and thinking clearer. Models which help our reasoning can lead to conceptual clarification; by expressing ideas in algebraic terms, the relationship between different concepts become clearer. Other mathematical models are used to better understand yet more complicated models, or to develop mathematical tools for their analysis. Though helping us to reason and being used as tools in the craftmanship of science, many models do not tell us much about the real biological phenomena we are, at least initially, interested in. The main reason for this is that any mathematical model is a simplification of the real world, reducing the complexity and variety of interactions and idiosynchracies of individual organisms. What such models can tell us, however, both is and has been very valuable throughout the history of ecology and evolution. Minimally, a model simplifying the complex world can tell us that in principle, the patterns produced in a model could also be produced in the real world. We can never know how different a simplified mathematical representation is from the real world, but the similarity models do strive for, gives us confidence that their results could apply. This thesis deals with a variety of different models, used for different purposes. One model deals with how one can measure and analyse invasions; the expanding phase of invasive species. Earlier analyses claims to have shown that such invasions can be a regulated phenomena, that higher invasion speeds at a given point in time will lead to a reduction in speed. Two simple mathematical models show that analysis on this particular measure of invasion speed need not be evidence of regulation. In the context of dispersal evolution, two models acting as proof-of-principle are presented. Parent-offspring conflict emerges when there are different evolutionary optima for adaptive behavior for parents and offspring. We show that the evolution of dispersal distances can entail such a conflict, and that under parental control of dispersal (as, for example, in higher plants) wider dispersal kernels are optimal. We also show that dispersal homeostasis can be optimal; in a setting where dispersal decisions (to leave or stay in a natal patch) are made, strategies that divide their seeds or eggs into fractions that disperse or not, as opposed to randomized for each seed, can prevail. We also present a model of the evolution of bet-hedging strategies; evolutionary adaptations that occur despite their fitness, on average, being lower than a competing strategy. Such strategies can win in the long run because they have a reduced variance in fitness coupled with a reduction in mean fitness, and fitness is of a multiplicative nature across generations, and therefore sensitive to variability. This model is used for conceptual clarification; by developing a population genetical model with uncertain fitness and expressing genotypic variance in fitness as a product between individual level variance and correlations between individuals of a genotype. We arrive at expressions that intuitively reflect two of the main categorizations of bet-hedging strategies; conservative vs diversifying and within- vs between-generation bet hedging. In addition, this model shows that these divisions in fact are false dichotomies.

Air Fleet and Facility Planning via Optimal Control Models

A study is presented which is aimed at developing techniques suitable for effective planning and efficient operation of fleets of aircraft typical of the air force of a developing country. An important aspect of fleet management, the problem of resource allocation for achieving prescribed operational effectiveness of the fleet, is considered. For analysis purposes, it is assumed that the planes operate in a single flying-base repair-depot environment. The perennial problem of resource allocation for fleet and facility buildup that faces planners is modeled and solved as an optimal control problem. These models contain two "policy" variables representing investments in aircraft and repair facilities. The feasibility of decentralized control is explored by assuming the two policy variables are under the control of two independent decisionmakers guided by different and not often well coordinated objectives.

Air Fleet and Facility Planning via Optimal Control Models

A study is presented which is aimed at developing techniques suitable for effective planning and efficient operation of fleets of aircraft typical of the air force of a developing country. An important aspect of fleet management, the problem of resource allocation for achieving prescribed operational effectiveness of the fleet, is considered. For analysis purposes, it is assumed that the planes operate in a single flying-base repair-depot environment. The perennial problem of resource allocation for fleet and facility buildup that faces planners is modeled and solved as an optimal control problem. These models contain two "policy" variables representing investments in aircraft and repair facilities. The feasibility of decentralized control is explored by assuming the two policy variables are under the control of two independent decisionmakers guided by different and not often well coordinated objectives.

Applications of Treatment Effects Models and Semiparametric Estimation

This thesis is composed of an introductory chapter and four applications each of them constituting an own chapter. The common element underlying each of the chapters is the econometric methodology. The applications rely mostly on the leading econometric techniques related to estimation of causal effects. The first chapter introduces the econometric techniques that are employed in the remaining chapters. Chapter 2 studies the effects of shocking news on student performance. It exploits the fact that the school shooting in Kauhajoki in 2008 coincided with the matriculation examination period of that fall. It shows that the performance of men declined due to the news of the school shooting. For women the similar pattern remains unobserved. Chapter 3 studies the effects of minimum wage on employment by employing the original Card and Krueger (1994; CK) and Neumark and Wascher (2000; NW) data together with the changes-in-changes (CIC) estimator. As the main result it shows that the employment effect of an increase in the minimum wage is positive for small fast-food restaurants and negative for big fast-food restaurants. Therefore, it shows that the controversial positive employment effect reported by CK is overturned for big fast-food restaurants and that the NW data are shown, in contrast to their original results, to provide support for the positive employment effect. Chapter 4 employs the state-specific U.S. data (collected by Cohen and Einav [2003; CE]) on traffic fatalities to re-evaluate the effects of seat belt laws on the traffic fatalities by using the CIC estimator. It confirms the CE results that on the average an implementation of a mandatory seat belt law results in an increase in the seat belt usage rate and a decrease in the total fatality rate. In contrast to CE, it also finds evidence on compensating-behavior theory, which is observed especially in the states by the border of the U.S. Chapter 5 studies the life cycle consumption in Finland, with the special interest laid on the baby boomers and the older households. It shows that the baby boomers smooth their consumption over the life cycle more than other generations. It also shows that the old households smoothed their life cycle consumption more as a result of the recession in the 1990s, compared to young households.

Nonsingular cosmological models: the massive scalar field case

The nonminimal coupling of a massive self-interacting scalar field with a gravitational field is studied. Spontaneous symmetry breaking occurs in the open universe even when the sign on the mass term is positive. In contrast to grand unified theories, symmetry breakdown is more important for the early universe and it is restored only in the limit of an infinite expansion. Symmetry breakdown is shown to occur in flat and closed universes when the mass term carries a wrong sign. The model has a naturally defined effective gravitational coupling coefficient which is rendered time-dependent due to the novel symmetry breakdown. It changes sign below a critical value of the cosmic scale factor indicating the onset of a repulsive field. The presence of the mass term severely alters the behaviour of ordinary matter and radiation in the early universe. The total energy density becomes negative in a certain domain. These features make possible a nonsingular cosm

Polypeptide models of collagen. II. Solution properties of (Pro-Gly-Phe)n

The conformation of (Pro-Gly-Phe)n in trifluoroethanol was investigated using CD, nmr and ir techniques. After making appropriate correction for the contribution of the phenylalanine chromophore to the observed CD spectra of the polytripeptide at several temperatures, it is found that (Pro-Gly-Phe)n can exist in a partially triple-helical conformation in this solvent a t low temperatures. The nmr and ir data support this conclusion. In conjunction with recent theoretical sutdies, our data offer an explanation for the preferential occurrence of the Phe residue in position 2 of the tripeptide sequence Gly-R2-R3, in collagen.