Granger causality and systemic risk

Building on the concept of Granger causality in risk in Hong et al. (2009), and focusing on an international sample of large-capitalization banks, we test for predictability in comovements in the left tails of returns of individual banks and the global system. The main results show that large individual shocks (defined as balance-sheet contractions exceeding the 1% VaR level) are a strong predictor of subsequent shocks in the global system. This evidence is particularly strong for US banks with large desks of proprietary trading. Similarly, we document strong evidence of financial vulnerabilities (exposures) to systemic shocks in US subprime creditors.

Bail-in Provisions in State Aid and Resolution Procedures: Are they consistent with systemic stability? CEPS Policy Brief No. 318, 21 May 2014

This CEPS Policy Brief examines the provisions for bail-in in the European Union – that is, the principle whereby any public measure to recapitalise a bank with insufficient prudential capital must be preceded by a write-down or conversion into equity of creditors’ claims – in state aid policies and in the new resolution framework for failing banks, with two aims: i) to assess whether and how they are coordinated and ii) more importantly, whether they address satisfactorily the question of systemic stability that may arise when investors fear that creditors’ claims are likely to be bailed-in in a bank crisis. The issue is especially relevant in the present context, as the comprehensive assessment exercise underway for EU banks falling under the direct supervision of the European Central Bank may lead supervisors to require substantial capital injections simultaneously for many of the banks involved, possibly shaking investors’ confidence across EU banking markets. The authors conclude that the two sets of rules are, broadly speaking, mutually consistent and that they already contain sufficient safeguards to address systemic stability concerns. However, the balance of the elements underpinning the European Commission’s decisions in individual cases may not be clear to bank creditors and potential investors in financial markets. The impression of unneeded rigidity on this very sensitive issue has been heightened by official statements over-emphasising that each case will be assessed individually under competition rules, thus feeding the concern that the systemic dimension of the issue may have been underestimated. Therefore, further clarification by the Commission may be needed on how the various criteria will be applied during the ongoing transition to banking union – perhaps through a new communication completing the state aid framework for banks in view of the adoption of the new resolution rules.

ISDS and TTIP – A miracle cure for a systemic challenge? EPC Policy Brief, 14 July 2014

The European Commission decided to carry out a public consultation, which closed on 13 July, on the possible inclusion of investor-to-state dispute settlement (ISDS) provisions in the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). This decision came in a context of polarised public debate around this procedural mechanism which enables investors to bring a case against a country that hosts their investments. Even though the main question is whether or not to include ISDS in TTIP, the Commission eyes the public consultation as a way to correct the inconsistencies of the mechanism by modernising it. However, the inclusion of ISDS in TTIP will not be a miracle cure because ISDS is a complex multilayered systemic challenge which requires a multilateral solution. In this Policy Brief, Romain Pardo explores which challenges are posed by ISDS and the extent at which TTIP’s contribution can tackle these challenges.

Systemic crisis in Alexander Lukashenko's regime. OSW Commentary No. 66, 2011-10-28

Measures undertaken by the Belarusian government in the areas of the economy, internal affairs and foreign policy in recent months have proven increasingly ineffective. Despite the deteriorating macroeconomic situation, Minsk is not implementing the reforms necessary to combat the crisis and its activity is limited only to feigned actions and administrative regulations. As a result, the economic situation is worsening but the chances of obtaining external loans as support, for example from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), are decreasing. At the same time there is mounting fear among the regime of social unrest, therefore by raising salaries of the least well-off groups of citizens it is trying to compensate for the increased costs of living. On the other hand, the government is extending the scope of control over society and competences of enforcement bodies. Belarus’s room for manoeuvre in foreign policy has also been diminishing substantially. Despite the EU’s declared willingness to reach an agreement and its encouragement, Lukashenko is not ready to make concessions in the political sphere (e.g. to rehabilitate political prisoners), and this is hindering the normalisation of relations with the West. Minsk furthermore feels a mounting pressure from Moscow, making the Belarusian negotiating position ever weaker. The lack of freedom of manoeuvre in foreign policy, no possibility to maintain a costly economic model and the lack of support from the majority of society all prove that Alexander Lukashenko’s regime is in severe crisis. The system he established is no longer able to respond to current threats with adequate and effective strategies. This situation is challenging the regime’s stability and calls into question its viability in the longer term.

The systemic roots of Russia’s recession. Bruegel Policy Contribution ISSUE 2015/15, OCTOBER 2015

The Russian economy grew rapidly between 2000 and 2007, but growth decelerated after the 2008-09 global financial crisis, and since mid-2014 Russia has moved into recession. A number of short-term factors have caused recession: lower oil prices, the conflict with Ukraine, European Union and United States sanctions against Russia and Russian counter-sanctions. However Russia's negative output trends have deeper structural and institutional roots. They can be tracked back about a decade to when previous market-reform policies started to be reversed in favour of dirigisme, leading to further deterioration of the business and investment climate. • Russia must address its short-term problems, but in the medium-to-long term it must deal with its fundamental structural and institutional disadvantages: oil and commodity dependence and an unfriendly business and investment climate underpinned by poor governance. Compared to many other commodity producers, Russia is better placed to diversify its economy, mostly due to its excellent human capital. Ruble depreciation makes this task easier

Systemic and local immune responses in sheep after Neospora caninum experimental infection at early, mid and late gestation.

Besides its importance in cattle, Neospora caninum may also pose a high risk as abortifacient for small ruminants. We have recently demonstrated that the outcome of experimental infection of pregnant sheep with 10(6) Nc-Spain7 tachyzoites is strongly dependent on the time of gestation. In the current study, we assessed peripheral and local immune response in those animals. Serological analysis revealed earlier and higher IFN-γ and IgG responses in ewes infected at early (G1) and mid (G2) gestation, when abortion occurred. IL-4 was not detected in sera from any sheep. Inflammatory infiltrates in the placenta mainly consisted of CD8+ and, to a lesser extent, CD4+ T cells and macrophages (CD163+). The infiltrate was more intense in sheep infected at mid-gestation. In the foetal mesenchyme, mostly free tachyzoites were found in animals infected at G1, while those infected in G2 displayed predominantly particulate antigen, and parasitophorous vacuoles were detected in sheep infected at G3. A similar pattern of placental cytokine mRNA expression was found in all groups, displaying a strengthened upregulation of IFN-γ and IL-4 and milder increases of TNF-α and IL-10, reminiscent of a mixed Th1 and Th2 response. IL-12 and IL-6 were only slightly upregulated in G2, and TGF-β was downregulated in G1 and G2, suggestive of limited T regulatory (Treg) cell activity. No significant expression of TLR2 or TLR4 could be detected. In summary, this study confirms the pivotal role of systemic and local immune responses at different times of gestation during N. caninum infection in sheep.

Recommendations for systemic reform of funding for elementary and secondary education in Illinois /

The recommended foundation level for school funding shall be determined based on a methodlogy which incorporates the basic education expenditures of low-spending schools exhibiting high academic performance.

Systemic monocyte activation levels and developmental milestone attainment in HIV-infected infants initiating antiretroviral therapy

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Fatigue, physical performance, and systemic inflammation in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

The Effect of Fructose vs. Glucose Beverages on Low-Grade Systemic Inflammation

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-04

Systemic apomorphine alters HPA axis responses to interleukin-1 beta adminstration but not sound stress

Apomorphine is a dopamine receptor agonist that was recently licensed for the treatment of erectile dysfunction. However, although sexual activity can be stressful, there has been little investigation into whether treatments for erectile dysfunction affect stress responses. We have examined whether a single dose of apomorphine, sufficient to produce penile erections (50 mug/kg, i.a.), can alter basal or stress-induced plasma ACTH levels, or activity of central pathways thought to control the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis in rats. An immune challenge (interleukin-1beta, 1 mug/kg, i.a.) was used as a physical stressor while sound stress (100 dB white noise, 30 min) was used as a psychological stressor. Intravascular administration of apomorphine had no effect on basal ACTH levels but did substantially increase the number of Fos-positive amygdala and nucleus tractus solitarius catecholamine cells. Administration of apomorphine prior to immune challenge augmented the normal ACTH response to this stressor at 90 min and there was a corresponding increase in the number of Fos-positive paraventricular nucleus corticotropin-releasing factor cells, paraventricular nucleus oxytocin cells and nucleus tractus solitarius catecholamine cells. However, apomorphine treatment did not alter ACTH or Fos responses to sound stress. These data suggest that erection-inducing levels of apomorphine interfere with hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis inhibitory feedback mechanisms in response to a physical stressor, but have no effect on the response to a psychological stressor. Consequently, it is likely that apomorphine acts on a hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis control pathway that is unique to physical stressors. A candidate for this site of action is the nucleus tractus solitarius catecholamine cell population and, in particular, A2 noradrenergic neurons. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evidence that the Bed Nucleus of the Stria Terminalis Contributes to the Modulation of Hypophysiotropic Corticotropin-Releasing Factor Cell Responses to Systemic Interleukin-1β

Systemic infection activates the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis, and brainstem catecholamine cells have been shown to contribute to this response. However, recent work also suggests an important role for the central amygdala (CeA). Because direct connections between the CeA and the hypothalamic apex of the HPA axis are minimal, the present study investigated whether the bed nucleus of the stria terminalis (BNST) might act as a relay between them. This was done by using an animal model of acute systemic infection involving intravascular delivery of the proinflammatory cytokine interleukin-1 (IL-1, 1 g/kg). Unilateral ibotenic acid lesions encompassing the ventral BNST significantly reduced both IL-1-induced increases in Fos immunoreactivity in corticotropin-releasing factor (CRF) cells of the hypothalamic paraventricular nucleus (PVN) and corresponding increases in adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH) secretion. Similar lesions had no effect on CRF cell responses to physical restraint, suggesting that the effects of BNST lesions were not due to a nonspecific effect on stress responses. In further studies, we examined the functional connections between PVN, BNST, and CeA by combining retrograde tracing with mapping of IL-1-induced increases in Fos in BNST and CeA cells. In the case of the BNST, these studies showed that systemic IL-1 administration recruits ventral BNST cells that project directly to the PVN. In the case of the CeA, the results obtained were consistent with an arrangement whereby lateral CeA cells recruited by systemic IL-1 could regulate the activity of medial CeA cells projecting directly to the BNST. In conclusion, the present findings are consistent with the hypothesis that the BNST acts as a relay between the CeA and PVN, thereby contributing to CeA modulation of hypophysiotropic CRF cell responses to systemic administration of IL-1.